CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030800010080-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
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• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Sequence Number: 80
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 0
Saturday 16 September 1978 CG NIDC 78.217
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
r
State Dept. review
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
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NICARAGUA: Situation Report
Nicarag,.~an National Guard forces yesterday stepped
up their efforts to regain control of the countryside. The
Guard concentrated its operations in Leon and Esteli, and was
expected to move into Chinandega if it brought those two cities
under control. Sporadic fighting occurred yesterday in Rivas,
Jinotepe, and Dir-'amba, where guerrilla units reportedly have
dug in.
Security units have heavily reinforced the military
complex and the Hotel Intercontinental in Managua in anticipa-
tion of a major guerrilla strike.
//Both Major "Tachito" Somoza, President Somoza's
son, and another middle-level officer confirm that there is
some concern about the Guard's ammunition supplies, but Major
Somoza says these can be replenished by Central American sup 25X1
pliers.//
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday, 16 September 1978.
The NID Ca le is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
IRAN: Regaining the Initiative
FRANCE - WEST GERMANY - EC
USSR: Reaction to Kennedy Visit
CHINA: New Scientific Emphasis
BRIEFS
Argentina-US
Ecuador
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Page 3
Page 3
Page 6
Page 7
Norway
Zambia
Colombia
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IRAN: Regaining the Initiative
//With Iran's Muslim Zeade.rs and opposition
po 2 iczans temporarily subdued by martial law, the Shah is
trying to regain the initiative by taking steps to convince
critics that he intends to continue pushing his program of po-
Zitical liberalization despite recent widespread disorders.//
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//There are signs of cautious optimism among
influential Iranians in government, business, and press circles
that the Shah may have pulled the country back from the brink
of chaos
la marked shift in opinion since early August, when
there was widespread concern that the Shah's inability to put
an end to countrywide rioting meant he was losing his grip.//
//The imposition of martial law on 8 Septem-
ber, in the view of many Iranians, followed by the military's
immediate and firm suppression of conservative religious demon-
strators in Tehran, prevented the country from sliding into
anarchy. The renewed confidence of pro-Shah groups in the pros-
pects for stability is credited to the forceful reassertion of
the Shah's authority, along with a number of steps designed to
increase political participation and to reduce official cor-
ruption and incompetence.//
//With martial law still in effect in Tehran
and 11 other cities, the Shah is seeking to shift dissent from
the streets by encouraging open criticism of the government in
the press and parliament. Intensive media coverage of antigov-
ernment speeches in the parliament is attracting a large audi-
ence and serving as a safety valve for the more responsible
critics of the government.//
//Even though the sense of crisis built up
over the last nine months has abated, the Shah still faces ma-
jor obstacles to the restoration of order and stability. Muslim
clergymen, the Shah's most formidable adversaries, still show
no sign of interest in negotiating a political compromise that
would give the Muslim leadership a greater voice in government
policy affecting religion but would leave the Shah's ultimate
authority intact.//
//The clergymen, backed by dissident leftist pol-
iticians and amply funded by conservative bazaar merchants, re-
tain the ability to stage large-scale demonstrations in defiance
of martial law. A march by several thousand mourners, led by
Muslim clergymen, to Tehran's cemetery on Thursday to commemo-
rate the victims of last week's riots ended without incident.
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//At their two-day semiannual meeting in Aachen,
Germany, w ich ended yesterday, French President Giscard and
West German Chancellor Schmidt showed every sign of being de-
termined to advance the cause of EC monetary unity, even though
earlier reporting had indicated significant Franco-German dif-
ferences on the projected European Monetary System.//
//The two leaders pressed their experts into ser-
vice in Aachen, and Schmidt announced yesterday that, despite
some remaining technical difficulties, "we have no differences
of opinion." Details on the extent of the agreement are not yet
available--and some of the "technical difficulties" may prove
serious. The degree to which they have been able to agree on
fundamentals should become clearer after the EC finance minis-
ters meet on Monday.//
//Skepticism about the feasibility of a new Commu-
nity monetary arrangement persists in many of the EC capitals.
There nevertheless is a growing feeling that a political deci-
sion to go ahead might be made by the EC's December target date,
although,the system would not begin functioning until sometime
in 1979.
USSR: Reaction to Kennedy Visit
The US Embassy in Moscow speculates that yesterday's
reaction in Pravda to the publicity given Senator Kennedy's
announcement about 18 Soviet emigration cases suggests that
Moscow, found it difficult to arrive at an appropriate response.
Although the Soviets felt it necessary to react against what
they saw as US interference in Soviet affairs, they were prob-
ably unhappy that this undercut their effort to use the Sena-
tor's visit to move the US-Soviet relationship in a more posi-
tive direction.
TASS described the talks last Saturday between the
Senator and President Brezhnev as "businesslike and friendly"
and avoided using the cooler term "frank," which the Senator
used. TASS did, however, characterize the current state of US-
Soviet affairs as "unsatisfactory."
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The timing of this TASS treatment--it came the day
after the departure from the USSR of US businessman Jay
Crawford--combined with the relative warmth of the Soviet por-
trayal of the talks, appeared to be a Soviet signal of in-
creased hope for a better period in bilateral relations.
Yesterday, however, the authoritative Pravda article
attacked US press statements about Soviet emigration cases and
indirectly criticized Senator Kennedy's public remarks about
the prospective resolution of 18 such cases. The article said
that no pressure, even through "quiet diplomacy," would affect
Soviet behavior on what Moscow regards as internal issues. What
evidently upset the Soviets was not the "quiet diplomacy" of
the Senator's visit, in which they apparently were willing to
promise concessions, but the ensuing publicity, which created
an image of Moscow's willingness to accommodate US pressures.
The public announcement of the 18 emigration cases
may have recalled for the Soviets an episode in October 1974
in which Senator Jackson made public statements on the issue
of an annual Jewish emigration quota; that episode caused a
political backlash in the USSR. Wednesday's Washington Post,
moreover, interpreted Soviet behavior in this case as showing
more "flexibility," a description of Soviet policy that is al-
most anathema in Moscow. The Soviets may also have felt that
Senator Kennedy violated the terms, tacit or otherwise, of the
arrangement allowing the emigration of the 18.
Although the Pravda article is unsigned and thus
registers an authoritative Soviet view, it is worded cautiously
and appears on page 5, indicating a desire not to have the So-
viet displeasure overplayed. The indirect nature of the crit-
icism of Senator Kennedy suggests hesitance about attacking a
US political figure whom the Soviets have always portrayed fav-
orably in their press.
More important, however, the Pravda attack tends to
undercut somewhat the positive signal the Soviets seemed to be
using the Senator's visit to send. The Soviets, even as they
apparently want to turn to a new page in the US-Soviet relation-
ship, seem to feel they must be on their guard to ensure that
the rules of future bilateral dealings are defined carefully to
protect Soviet interests, particularly in domestic affairs.
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CHINA: New Scientific Emphasis
//China has made plans to send thousands of
Its best students abroad for graduate training in the sciences
and engineering during the next few years. In other significant
reflections of the country's new emphasis on scientific and
technological development, Leading scientists are again becom-
ing members of the Communist Party and party political cadres
involved in management decisions on scientific and engineering
matters are attending special classes to increase their compe-
tence in those areas.//
Several Western countries have been asked to accept
many more Chinese scientific and technical students than they
are willing or able to accommodate this fall. Only 500 to 1,000
are to constitute the initial group, but China hopes to place
as many as 3,000 students abroad by the fall of 1979. A large
proportion will be graduate students because Chinese graduate
programs are undeveloped. The candidates will probably be per-
sons with high potential for scientific and technical studies,
but they are likely to be poorly prepared linguistically and
academically.
//China's interests are primarily in engineer-
ing, electronics, and solid-state physics. Western management
techniques and research methods are also of great interest. A
small number of Chinese students are already being trained in
science and engineering in Japan, Canada, West Germany, and
France.//
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Th entr of leading scientists into the Communist
e
y
ests a rise in the status of scientists to what it
ug
t
P
g
y s
ar
was before the Cultural Revolution, when perhaps 20 to 30 per-
cent of the country's professional scientists were party mem-
bers. Party organs, especially provincial committees and commit-
tees in scientific and technical institutes and universities,
i
n
'
ce
e
s sc
are playin an important role in promoting China
policies. 25X1
BRIEFS
Argentina-US
entina has indefinitely postponed formal ratifica-
Ar
g
tion of the Tlateloco Treaty, which seeks to ban nuclear weapons
from Latin America. There is a possibility that it will reverse
its earlier decision and decide not to adhere to the accord.
//The change of mind stems in part from grow-
ing hostility in Buenos Aires to US pressure on human rights.
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me senior Ecuadorean military officers
b
y so
A plot
and election officials to announce widespread voting irregular-
ities and fraud as a prelude to voiding the country's two--stage
presidential election apparently has been shelved until next
week.
nt seems to have been prompted by broad
The postponeme
exposure in the media and by denunciations- from civilian polit-
ical leaders during the past few days. It remains uncertain
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whether the conspiracy can succeed, but US Embassy officials
in Quito believe that the plotters robabl will try again after
the public furor subsides.
Norway
Norway's Labor government, committed to restorin
the
g
country's international competitiveness, yesterday announced a
wage and price freeze that is to last until the end of 1979.
The government suspended collective bargaining for the same
period, as well as pay raises already scheduled for 1979.
Inflation averaging 9 percent for the past two
ears
y
has threatened to price Norwegian industry out of markets both
at home and abroad. Unless the rise of wages and prices is mod-
erated, the improvement in Norway's competitive position stem-
ming from an 8-percent devaluation in February will vanish,
profit margins in nonenergy export industries will narrow fur-
ther, and unemployment will rise.
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The Zambian Government arrested opposition political
figure Simon Kapwepwe and some of his followers last week, ac-
cording to the US Embassy in Lusaka. Kapwepwe had announced
last month that he was a candidate for the presidency. The gov-
ernment apparently wanted to ensure that there would be no dis-
ruptions and that President Kaunda would win an overwhelming
endorsement as the only candidate at the ruling party confer-
ence last weekend.
Since Kaunda won the endorsement as expected, Kapwe-
pwe's relatives expect him to be released before the end of
the month. The government is concerned about Kapwepwe's consid- 25X1
erable support.within the country's largest tribal group, how-
nd will keep a close eye on him at least until after the
election, which is likely to be held next month.
Labor leaders helped President Turbay's government
keep the lid on a potentially explosive situation in Colombia
on Thursday by calling off demonstrations to commemorate the
general strike of a year ago. Stringent new security measures
will remain in effect, however, because officials believe ter-
rorist and insurgent groups are planning additional assassina-
tions--a former minister was murdered on Tuesday--or other dis-
ruptive actions.
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(Security Classification)
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