NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030700010030-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 21, 2006
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: May 30, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 0
Tuesday 30 May 1978 CG NIDC 78/125C
DIA review(s) completed.
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
CIA-RDP79T00975A030700~1Sbcret
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ZAIRE: Military Situation Report
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//Most of thel rench Foreign Legion
force in Zaire left Kolwezi on Sunday by truck convoy for
Lubumbashi. Legionnaires remain in Kolwezi to maintain
security. Be gran paratroopers have arrived in several mining
towns east of Kolwezi: to protect European civilians. Katangan
forces apparently still control Mutshatsha and unsuccessfully
attacked Kasaji Saturday night.//
//Last week, a French Defense Ministry spokesman
said that the departing Legionnaires would stay in Lubumbashi
for several days before returning to their base in Corsica.
He also said the trip from Kolwezi would take three days.//
Press reports indicate the French will remain in Kolwezi until
Moroccan troops arrive there. The US Defense Attache in Kinshasa
reports that the 50 Moroccan soldiers now in Zaire were still
housed outside the capital on Sunday.//
//Elements of thel paratroop 25X1
force stationed at Kamina airbase began to ep oy to mining
towns in southern Shaba Region on Saturday. Belgian contingents
are now located in Lubumbashi, Likasi, Kipus:hi, and Kambove as
well as Kamina. The Belgian Defense Ministry announced last
week that the paratroopers would remain in Zaire indefinitely
in order to protect Belgian citizens, but the troops have orders
to limit their operations to rescuing and evacuating endangered
Europeans.//
According to the US Army Attache in Zaire, there
were plans for Belgian military air transports to begin yester-
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Monday, 30 May 1978
The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US o icials.
IRAQ-USSR: Tensions Increasing
USSR: Change in Research Leadership
VIETNAM-CHINA: Talks Proposed
CHINA-JAPAN: Friendship Treaty
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ZAMBIA: Copper Earnings Plummet
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IRAQ-USSR: Tensions Increasing
I I Relations between Iraq and the Soviet Union appear
to be seriously strained as a result both of Iraq's unhappiness
about the Soviet role in the Horn of Africa and of Baghdad's
treatment of the local Communist Party.
Iraq, which has been an important supporter of the
Eritrean rebels, has approached the Soviets several times in
the past few weeks voicing its concern about the impending Ethi-
opian Government offensive against the rebels. According to
press reports, Iraqi leader Saddam Husayn recently told the
Soviet Ambassador in Baghdad that Iraq opposes any military
pressure against the Eritreans and warned the Ambassador that
Iraq is prepared to sever relations with Moscow if it is proved
that the Soviets have given military support to Ethiopia for
use against the Eritreans.
Baghdad may, in addition, be taking advantage of the
tension with the Soviets to move against the Iraqi Communist
Party. Arab press sources report widespread arrests of Iraqi
Communists and the execution of 14 party members in the past
month. The Soviet Ambassador, in his meeting with Saddam Husayn,
is said to have protested the moves.
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Although the Baathist regime has periodically moved
against ocal party members, the current action could be meant
both as a reminder to the Soviets that they have little or no
influence over internal Iraqi politics and as a signal that fur-
ther reprisals are possible should Soviet policy in the area run
counter to Iraqi interests. The arrests apparently involve only
low-level party members, and not senior leaders, two of whom
remain as members of the cabinet. One of the Communist cabinet
ministers traveled to Moscow recently, perhaps to try to smooth
relations.
I An Iraqi announcement last week that all Soviet 25X1
ig s sc eduled from Moscow to Aden via Baghdad had been can-
celed has raised speculation that Iraq is ending Soviet use of
Iraqi facilities for military transport flights.
USSR: Change in Research Leadership
//The creation of a vice presidency for science
an ecano ogy in the Soviet Academy of Sciences may Zead to
significant changes in Soviet research policy, and the new
appointee may influence future exchanges of laser fusion infor-
mation between the USSR and the US.//
//Dr. Yevgeniy Velikhov, an internationally
known 'specia ist in fusion physics and magnetohydrodynamics, was
elected to the newly created post by the presidium of the aca-
demy. He will have broad responsibility for the general plan-
ning of research programs in the areas of physics, chemistry,
mathematics, computers, energy, space, and related technologies.
Velikhov will report directly to the president of the academy
and may in fact be in line to succeed to that position.//
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//Among his many responsibilities, Velikhov has
headed the laser fusion division of the Kurchatov Institute, a
position that will now be filled by Yuriy Volkov, a leading
specialist in magnetohydrodynamics.//
/In past dealings with US scientists on matters
relating to laser fusion, Volkov has been reluctant to provide
Soviet information and markedly aggressive in trying to elicit
US information. Under his influence, other scientists at the
institute may become more intelligence-conscious in their ex-
changes with the US on the subject of laser fusion.//
//In his new capacity as vice president, Veli-
khov has already initiated a major change, which de-emphasize 25X1
the Soviet laser fusion program. He has also indicated special
interest in Soviet energy, space, and high-energy physics pro-
I outside his specialty.
VIETNAM-CHINA: Talks Proposed
I I Vietnam has proposed negotiations with China to de-
juse tens ions over the exodus of overseas Chinese from Vietnam
o China. Among other issues, the Vietnamese want to discuss
("hina's announced plan to send ships to Vietnamese ports to
pick up additional refugees.
I I On Saturday, the Vietnamese rejected China's asser-
tion that overseas Chinese have been mistreated and expelled,
calling it a "complete fabrication." A Vietnamese Foreign Min-
istry official said that Peking's proposal for dispatching two
ships to Haiphong and Ho Chi Minh City, formerly Saigon, would
be reported to higher authority.
Yesterday, the Vietnamese proposed that the two gov-
ernments meet in Peking in early June to discuss the overseas
Chinese problem and China's plan to send ships to pick up refu-
gees. There are no indications that Peking is preparing to send
the ships without Vietnamese authorization.
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Propaganda exchanges remain heated. The Chinese press,
saying that nearly 90,000 overseas Chinese have now been ex-
pelled, is continuing to focus on the suffering inflicted on
the ethnic Chinese by Vietnamese authorities. A recent broad-
cast charged that the Vietnamese opened fire on a group of
fleeing refugees, wounding two.
I IThe Vietnamese press continues to criticize China for
spreading stories about the mistreatment of Chinese, pointedly
commenting that other Southeast Asian states with large overseas
Chinese populations are concerned that China might create prob-
lems among the ethnic Chinese in their countries. Vietnamese
statements have also strongly emphasized the value Hanoi places
on the friendship of the Chinese and the Vietnamese peoples.
CHINA-JAPAN: Friendship Treaty
Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda plans to sound out the
Chinese next month about reopening negotiations on the long-
stalled Sino-Japanese peace and friendship treaty. Intermittent
discussions on the treaty, as well as a publicly announced trip
to Peking by Foreign Minister Sonoda to discuss the issue, were
shelved in April following incursions by Chinese fishing boats
into the disputed waters around the Senkaku Islands. There are
as yet no signs that the Japanese have fashioned a new proposal
on the main stumbling block to the treaty--the anti-Soviet, an-
tihegemony clause--that would be acceptable to Peking. The Chi-
nese have reemphasized their inflexibility on this issue.
Fukuda almost certainly hopes to show some movement
on the treaty problem, if only to undercut pressures from the
more vocal supporters of China in Tokyo. Fukuda won the formal
approval last week of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party
leadership for reopening the talks with Peking, but he has
privately emphasized his desire to proceed at a measured pace.
I I Fukuda has several reasons for modulating the pace of
negotiations on the treaty. Most obviously, he wants to renew
the talks only after the current Diet session ends in mid-June
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in order to ensure that there are no disruptions in the legis-
iritive schedule. Implementing legislation for the Japan - South
Korea continental shelf agreement, which is already the subject
of official Chinese protests, is now before the Diet, and Fukuda
almost certainly wants to avoid the possibility that opponents
of the treaty in the ruling party or opposition critics of Japan's
ties with South Korea might use Chinese objections to torpedo
the bill.
More important, however, Fukuda is well aware of the
need to win over conservatives in Liberal Democratic ranks who
insist on moderating the anti-Soviet overtones of the anti-
hegemony clause. In publicly endorsing further talks, party
leaders clearly pulled up short of endorsing any concessions
to the Chinese. Fukuda has privately underscored his personal
interest in moving ahead with the treaty, but he has also em-
phasized that an agreement on a compromise position for the an-
tihegemony problem--and presumably some flexibility in Peking--
must come first. F7 I
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ZAMBIA: Copper Earnings ]Plummet
//Zambia is in for major economic problems unless
its copper exports pick up soon. Its earnings from copper sales
fell to $1.3 million during the first two weeks of this month
compared with a normal monthly average of $72 million. The
dramatic drop apparently stems from tie-ups along the TA.NZAM
rail line and at the port of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, that
stranded nearly 100,000 tons of copper worth about $120 million.//
//Even before the current difficulties, Zambia was
faced with serious balance-of-payments problems. At the start of
the year, it had fallen $500 million behind in payments for im-
ports. Despite the current spurt in world copper prices attrib-
utable to the Zaire situation, Zambia's current--account deficit
could exceed $240 million unless copper shipments average close
to last year's 650,000 tons.//
I //Zambia has been forced to rely on shipment through
Dar es Salaam for almost all its copper exports in recent years;
closure of its border with Rhodesia in 1973 halted exports
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through Rhodesia, and in 1975 fighting in Angola halted inter-
national traffic along another export route, the Benguela rail-
road through Angola.//
//Delays in shipping copper from Dar es Salaam
caused by haphazard cargo handling, inadequate storage facili-
ties, and shortages of transport equipment have been common
since then. The current problems appear particularly serious,
however, and probably were precipitated by the recent removal
of 400 trucks from operation by a trucking company because of
slow payment by Zambia.//
//Zambia is already taking steps to correct the
situation. Payments to the trucking service were authorized
two weeks ago, and discussions between Tanzanian and Zambian
transport officials aimed at increasing railcar availability
and improving port efficiency have also been held. Zambia also
plans to increase shipments through Malawi to two ports in
Mozambique.//
//Export delays will prevent Zambia from taking
advantage ot the closure of Zaire's copper mining industry and
the resulting rise in copper prices. Most of the benefits reaped
by reductions in the 2 million tons of excess copper in the in-
ternational market will accrue to other developing country pro-
ducers--Peru and Chile--if Zambian and Zairian difficulties
persist.
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Top Secret
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Top Secret
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