NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010114-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 21, 2006
• Sequence Number: 114
• Publication Date: May 5, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
ApppMgli Release 2007/03/07
TO:
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE I
NITIALS
1
2
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPAR
E REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOM
MENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:
FROM:
NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO.
DATE
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday 5 May 1978 CG NIDC 78/105C
w
0
0
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
0
0
lsecurlty yassl>r I 25X1
'Jar 'iff 'Aar 'Aff 'Aff JAW 'Aff 'Aar 'Aff
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010114-5
CIA-RDP79T00975A030601po ls-dcret
(Security Classification)
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010114-5
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010114-5
 Approved For Rel
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, 5 May 1978.
25X1
The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
CANADA-NATO: Defense Proposal
UNITED KINGDOM: Reprocessing Plant
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: Energy
Page 2
Page 3
Page 4
Page 11
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010114-5
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010114-5
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010114-5
 Approved For Re
CANADA-NATO: Defense Proposal
//A Canadian proposal that the high-level NATO
meetings t 2s month consider the US-proposed Zong-term defense
program only in broad terms, postponing consideration of a de-
tailed plan until later this year, could gain the support of
other NATO members who have been balking at various aspects
of the plan. The Canadian maneuver appears to reflect Prime
Minister Trudeau's belief that NATO should be run "from the
top down."//
//The US-backed program covers the 1979-93 period
and is aimed at promoting standardization and compatibility of
defense efforts in 10 major problem areas within NATO; its
price tag could approach $85 billion. For this month's top-
level NATO sessions--the meeting of defense ministers in Bel-
gium on 18-19 May and the NATO summit in Washington on 30-31
May--the US-backed draft seeks only general agreement to pur-
sue efforts on major aspects of the program.//
//While no specific budgetary actions are called
or in this text, the West Europeans have expressed a variety
of concerns and would prefer less binding language in several
key sections, notably the provision of additional reserve bri-
gades, deployment of a second Dutch brigade to West Germany,
and greater cooperation in developing armaments. NATO repre-
sentatives are to convene Monday to seek agreement on the re-
port on the long-term program to be submitted to the top-level
meetings.//
//Trudeau purportedly thinks the Canadian draft
logically relates a NATO study on East-West force balance, the
trans-Atlantic dialogue on arms standardization and purchasing,
and the long-term defense program itself, all without altering
the substance of the program and achieving a more political
than programmatic approach. The Canadians had previously indi-
cated their reservations on the idea of committing themselves
to any program before they were discussed by heads of state
and government.//
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 CIA-RDP79T00975A03060 -
 //Canadian unhappiness with NATO procedural prac-
tices had previously surfaced in January over the methods used
to select a new deputy secretary general. The Canadians had be-
gun to feel isolated within the Alliance and wanted the slot
as a means of influencing NATO decisions. Trudeau's ire was
aroused when he was told that the Canadian candidate would not
be considered.//
//Trudeau's perception of his domestic political
position may have been a secondary consideration in the timing
of the Canadian proposal. Trudeau has been under increasing
domestic pressure in recent weeks. The traditional four-year
interim period between elections has passed--although legally
a five-year interim is allowed--and the Prime Minister is slip-
ping in the polls and being attacked for the sad state of the
national economy and the decline of the Canadian dollar. He
may have calculated that a show of decisiveness on the inter-
national scene might produce some much needed support in the
press. F77 I
UNITED KINGDOM: Reprocessing Plant
//The British Parliament is likely to approve by
e en o his month the construction of a $1.1 billion nu-
clear fuel reprocessing plant at the Windscale nuclear facility
in northwestern England. With the expansion of this facility,
Britain will be able in the Zate 1980s to process foreign as
well as its own spent fuel.//
//The new, government-owned plant is designed to
handle 1,200 tons per year of spent fuel from power reactors
that use enriched uranium. The British will use half of the
capacity to reprocess spent fuel from their advanced gas-
cooled reactors; the other half will handle foreign orders for
reprocessing.//
//The plant is scheduled to begin operation in
1987 and to be fully operational by 1989. The British and the
French will probably at that time share equally in a $2.2
billion reprocessing order from Japan.//
Approved For Re
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010114-5
 Approved For R (ease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A 30600010114-5 25X1
//The application for the building permit--filed
18 months ago--became a major political issue, involving energy
and evironme'ntal policies and civil rights. Opponents stressed
the.threat to the environment and the possibility the plant
might contribute to the spread of nuclear weapons.//
//In March, however, a public inquiry recommended
Immediate construction; it cited the need to conserve fossil
fuels, the greater ease of handling inventories of spent nu-
clear fuel after reprocessing, and the potential foreign ex-
change earnings from reprocessing fuel for other countries.
The inquiry also concluded that, by reprocessing foreign fuel,
the new plant would relieve pressure on nonnuclear-weapons
states to develop facilities of their own.//
//Parliament has accepted these findings
As a
.
last step, Parliament must approve a special building order
that includes a list of safeaual s recommended by the inquiry.
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: Energy
//With many developing countries scaling down
nuclear power programs developed over the past decade, the
installed capacity of such programs in Third World countries
in 1985 should be 45 percent Zess than the countries had
planned. A detailed survey of the energy situation in 21 de-
veloping countries indicates that--given the relative costs
and potential availability of other sources of energy--a fuZZ-
scale commitment to nuclear power is not the optimum strategy
for any of the countries.//
.//Installed capacity in Third World countries
wi total 15,000 megawatts by 1985, rather than the 27,000
megawatts originally envisioned. By 1990, nuclear plant capac-
ity should reach no more than 35,000 megawatts, less than one-
half the capacity indicated by earlier plans. Four countries--
Iran, Brazil, Taiwan, and South Korea--will account for most
of the nuclear capacity in developing countries.//
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010f 14-5
 25X1
Approved For F9elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79TOO975Aq
//Large cost increases are the major reason the
developing countries are reassessing their programs. The cost
of a typical 1,000-megawatt light water reactor coming into
operation in 1977 increased to more than $700 per kilowatt from
$300 four years earlier.//
//A slowing demand for electric power has also
been a factor in diminishing the pace of nuclear construction
programs in the Third World. The Brazilan Government, for ex-
ample, has reduced its forecast of growth in electric power
needs through 1999 by one-fourth. The developing countries al-
most certainly will continue to lower their forecasts of power
needs as energy costs rise and as real economic expansion falls
short of expectations.//
//The sharp rise in costs has seriously undercut
the competitiveness of nuclear power plants relative to alter-
native nonoil energy supplies, particularly coal. Although fuel
costs for nuclear facilities are substantially less than for
coal-fired power plants, most of this advantage is eliminated
when capital charges, including interest costs, are taken into
account. Hydroelectric plants offer still lower costs.//
I //Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Indonesia, Chile,
Peru, In ia, and Turkey have substantial, low-cost hydropower
potential. In each country, rapid development of a portion of
this potential could satisfy all or most of the projected growth
in electric power requirements through the 1980s.//
//Most developing countries have the domestic coal
resources necessary to meet all or a large part of their electric
power requirements. The quantity of coal needed to generate all
the electric power that would be provided by nuclear plants in
developing countries is small compared with world reserves.//
//A number of countries in the Third World have
abundant natural gas reserves available for use in thermal
power plants, although these countries may elect to use some of
their natural gas for petrochemical feedstock. The amount of
gas required to fuel power facilities is small compared with the
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010114-5
 Approved For
vast reserves in certain developing countries. In Iran, for
instance, only about 10 percent of projected gas output would
be needed to generate the electric power provided by the 10
nuclear installations scheduled for operation in the early
19905.//
I //Given the costs and availability of alternative
energy supp ies, most developing countries can delay the de-
cision to use nuclear energy at least until the mid-1980s. If
they make large-scale investments in coal plants, they could
postpone the decision on nuclear energy indefinitely.//
//Many developing countries are reluctant to
abandon their nuclear energy programs even where alternatives
are available because of political and prestige factors. But,
with few exceptions, their ability to move ahead with such
s
plans will depend on the willingness of major nuclear supplier
to provide subsidized financing.
25X1
Approved For Release 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010~ 14-5
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010114-5
Next 3 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010114-5
 Approved For Relea
//Canadian, British, and West German diplomats
have told the US Ambassador in Kingston, Jamaica, that the
summit of world leaders in late May proposed by Jamaican Prime
Minister Manley to discuss North-South economic issues is
doubtful. The Canadian High Commissioner said that Prime Min-
ister Trudeau has advised Manley that the summit is "ill-timed
and ill-conceived" and that Manley should do more planning to
attract a greater number of key heads of state.//
//Despite the fact that key participants such as
the West Germans and Canadians would prefer a later date and
a more broadly based meeting, Manley has not yet formally re-
scheduled or canceled the summit. 25X1
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010114-5
 I
TO roved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010114-5
(Security Classification)
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Aff Aff Aff Aar Adw Aar Aar Adw Aar
1
1
1
1
1
1
J
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30600010114-5