NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010080-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 13, 2012
• Sequence Number: 80
• Publication Date: April 15, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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Saturday 15 April 1978 CG NIDC 78,/088C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Top Secret
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ANF,Jff Aff AffAff Aff Aff Aff Aff
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturda
15 April 1978
e NID Cable is for the purpose o informing
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IRAQ: Support for Eritreans
UK: Current Account Again in the Red
AFGHANISTAN: Poppy Cultivation
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Turkey
India-Pakistan
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Charter 77 have charged in an "open letter" to party and state
leader Gustav Husak that Prague has "intensified repressions"
since the conclusion of the European security review conference.
To substantiate their allegations, they detail actions taken
by the government since early March against six dissidents,
including two Catholic priests.
Spokesmen for the Czechoslovak dissident movement
West German press on Tuesday, apparently hoped to embarrass
Husak during his visit this week to West Germany. Husak en-
countered considerable criticism about Czechoslovakia's viola-
tions of human rights from the West German media.
The dissidents, whose letter was published in the
contention that Prague, never light-handed in its treatment of
There is no evidence to substantiate the dissidents'
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dissenters, has inaugurated a new crackdown. If it has, the
government is probably moving first against lesser known people
whose cases do not command immediate Western attention.
The "open letter" confirmed that long-time Charter 77
spokesman Jiri Hajek has stepped down; his loss could easily
drain the movement of vitality. Hajek's replacement is Jaroslav
Sabata, a reformist party functionary in 1968, who was given
a six-and-one-half year prison sentence in August 1972 for dis-
seminating leaflets reminding voters of their electoral rights.
Sabata may be vulnerable to legal reprisals for his dissident
activity because he is still on parole.
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IRAQ: Support for Eritreans
Developments in the Horn of Africa are com-
pZicatin,q Iraq's relations with Cuba and the Soviet Union.
Ethiopia will be used in a campaign against the Eritrean in-
surgents, who have received military and financial aid from
Iraq for at least six years. Iraq probably pressed the issue
during the visit of Cuban Foreign Minister Malmierca to
Baghdad last month. The final communique did not include any
statement on the Horn of Africa, a clear indication that the
two sides could not resolve their differences.
Baghdad is apprehensive that the Cuban forces in
The strain in Iraqi-Cuban relations, however, is
probably limited and temporary. Both sides are interested in
improving bilateral relations, direct contacts have been es-
tablished between the Cuban Communist Party and Iraq's Baath
Party, and Cubans are in Iraq training the Baath Party's para-
military Peoples' Army.
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official last week that the Soviets had pressed Iraq to end
its aid to the Eritreans; the Iraqi said the Soviets did not
An Iraqi diplomat in Moscow told a US Embassy
he point to the extent of harming their relations.
UK: Current Account Again in the Red
//Britain recorded a sizable current account defi-
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cit in Marc that brought the first quarter shortfaZZ to $400
million, compared with a $600 million surplus in fourth quarter
1977. The swing is especially disturbing in light of the fiscal
stimulation package announced on Tuesday that will give further
impetus to imports. London has halved its projected surplus for
1978 to $1.4 billion.//
//The turnaround stems primarily from a sharp rise
in imports. Imports rose more than 10 percent in volume from
fourth quarter 1977 to first quarter 1978; the rise in part re-
flected the $1.7 billion fiscal stimulus introduced in October.
Purchases of finished manufactures have risen in particular
after declining throughout the second half of 1977.//
//The return of the current account to deficit
has been accompanied by a decline in the value of the pound.
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Sterling has fallen from a high of $1.96 in January to $1.86
yesterday against a weakening dollar. The Bank of England ap-
parently stepped in to support the pound after announcement of
the unexpectedly large deficit in March.
AFGHANISTAN: Poppy Cultivation
poppy growing has increased markedly in at least one remote
area of eastern Afghanistan. Afghan opiates so far have not
been a significant problem for the US and Western Europe but,
as efforts to control production in Mexico and the Golden Tri-
angle of Southeast Asia become more effective, international
drug traffickers are almost certain to turn to the Pakistan-
Afghanistan border area.
According to a senior UN narcotics official, opium
ficulty finding any wheat, the traditional crop, but in one
area there were poppies "as far as the eye could see." He was
told that poppy acreage has more than doubled in the past year
and that improved technology has resulted in substantially in-
creased yields. The farmers are using large amounts of commer-
cial fertilizer and are staggering planting to allow a more
efficient use of labor during the harvest.
During a trip near the border, the official had dif-
administer an efficient anti-poppy campaign in remote areas
has some validity. The government's argument that only impov-
erished small farmers are involved in opium production, how-
ever, seems specious if the UN official's report of vast irri-
gated poppy fields is accurate.
The Afghan Government's claim that it is unable to
of the country where the government, in a better position to
enforce its laws and spurred on by the prospect that US funds
for local development projects would be withheld, has already
The picture is considerably better in another part
plowed under a third of an extensive opium poppy crop.
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Turkey
According to the US Embassy in Ankara, the Turkish
police will be hard-pressed to control a rightist political
rally in the capital today that may involve as many as 100,000
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demonstrators. In an attempt to cope with possible trouble
today and at a leftist rally scheduled for 1 May in Istanbul,
the police forces--which the Embassy says are suffering from
serious inadequacies--will be augmented by cadets from the
national police academy.
the situation.
and right has been increasing throughout the country for months.
The Embassy also has expressed concern for US personnel and
property; incidents against Americans this year already surpass
the totals for 1977. So far, Prime Minister Ecevit has resisted
imposing martial law or taking other strong action to control
Violence between the forces of the political left
old dispute over an Indian hydroelectric dam indicates renewed
interest by both India and Pakistan in resolving their differ-
ences. The terms of the agreement are essentially those of a
compromise under consideration in late 1976 when talks lapsed,
in part because of upcoming national elections in both coun-
tries.
The agreement signed yesterday ending an eight-year-
potential of the river.
built were allocated to Pakistan under an agreement that dates
from 1960. The Pakistanis claimed that the original Indian
design for the dam would allow India to interrupt the flow of
water and that India therefore violated the 1960 treaty. Under
terms of the compromise, the dam will be significantly lower
than originally proposed. Pakistan will be ensured a continuing
flow of water while India will be able to tap the hydroelectric
The waters of the river on which the dam is being
.Nigeria
that the Nigerians hope will form the basis for a draft Secu-
rity Council resolution condemning South African nuclear ac-
tivities and urging an end to international nuclear coopera-
tion with South Africa.
The Nigerian UN mission is preparing a position paper
and plan to submit it to the UN African contact group for con-
sideration. If the African states support the Nigerian paper,
The Nigerians have shown a draft to the US mission
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a formal Security Council session on South African nuclear
activities could be called in the next week or so. 25X1
Youth Association forced their way into the lobby of the US Em-
bassy in Seoul Friday morning, shouting slogans and throwing
leaflets denouncing the alleged US wiretapping of the South
Korean presidential mansion in the 1960s.
//Some 60 members of the Korean Anti-Communist
Police arrived on the
scene within 1.5 minutes and removed the demonstrators, and no
casualties or property damage were reported.//
bassy compound.
planning to hold demonstrations at the Embassy later in the
day, and some 200 police have been stationed outside the Em-
//South Korean officials. said other groups were
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