NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030600010006-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2005
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: March 3, 1978
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Frilly 3 March__1278 CG NIDC 78/051C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, 3 March 1978.
T he NM-Cable is for the purpose o intorming
senior o icials.
CONTENTS
RHODESIA: Internal Settlement
ISRAEL: Rising Labor Unrest
ZAIRE-ANGOLA: Easing Relations
USSR: Kulakov's Speeches and Books
BRIEF:
Senegal
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RHODESIA: Internal Settlement
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Rhodesian Prime Minister Smith and black nationalist
ea ers inside the country are scheduled to sign an agreement
today on the structure of a transition government that will
lead to majority rule on 31 December. The signing would add to
the pressure already being felt by opponents of an internal
settlement.
Accordin to preliminary reports from Salisbury, the
g
transition government is to be headed by an executive council
f Smith and the three black leaders--Bishop Muzorewa,
d
o
compose
Ndabaningi Sithole, and Chief Chirau. The chairmanship of this
body will rotate among the four leaders. A council of ministers
composed of an equal number of blacks and whites will be in
charge of day-to-day administration of the country while the
executive council prepares for a national election.
Smith and the nationalists apparently reached the
agreement a day or so ago. Yesterday Smith won approval from
Rhodesia's white-dominated parliament and the black leaders
obtained it from their respective executive councils.
The a reement does not spell an end to problems in
g
the negotiations. Preparing for the national election and deal-
ing with economic and military questions will offer substantial
challenges.
I An agreement on the transition government will none-
theless be a major gain for Smith and the internal black leaders,
all of whom need to show momentum toward a settlement. Patriotic
Front leaders Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe and the frontline
presidents, who have continually denounced the negotiations in
Salisbury, will believe they now have less time to search for
alternatives than they did before the signing.
I I The presidents still view the Anglo-American plan as
the es way to achieve a settlement, but they have been unable
so far to convince the Patriotic Front to accept it. Nkomo and
Mugabe undoubtedly will reject the new agreement and will attempt
to escalate the fighting. They will probably also review their
position toward the Anglo-American plan, perhaps in concert
with the frontline presidents.
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I IThe agreement will present a dilemma for the frontline
press en s at the UN. African states opposed to an internal set-
tlement were anxious to get a Security Council resolution of
condemnation on the record before Smith's efforts proceeded
further. They now may be reluctant to push ahead and seek what
could be a divisive debate over the agreement reached in Salis-
bury.
Smith and the black leaders are likely to make an
early effort to test the prospects for international recogni-
tion once their agreement is signed. Bishop Muzorewa, for ex-
ample, is leaving for London this weekend; we expect him to
make a strong pitch to Foreign Secretary Owen, to other British
politicians, and to the media to recognize the settlement, or
at least to withhold final judgment until the agreement has
had a chance to prove itself.
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ISRAEL: Rising Labor Unrest
The Israeli Government faces rising labor unrest
that could place additional strains on the ruling coalition.
Prime Minister Begin probably will soon be forced to devote
more attention to domestic problems in order to avoid a fur-
ther erosion in the unity and prestige of his government.
~ Since assuming office in June, the Begin government
has enjoyed relative calm at home, thanks largely to the dis-
array within the opposition Labor Party and the public's pre-
occupation with peace negotiations. Domestic tranquility,
however,, is near an end with the increasing signs of labor
unrest.
I I A merchant seamen's strike is now in its sixth week,
and this week bus drivers and airport maintenance workers
staged work stoppages. Other key public service and professional
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groups are threatening to take similar strike action when new
contract talks open in April. Angered by recent price increases,
they are demanding huge pay raises to offset inflation that is
expected to exceed 40 percent this year.
I Leaders of the Histadrut labor federation, although
nominally allied with the opposition Labor Party, hope to
avert a confrontation with the government. They fear that a
test of strength would provoke legislation aimed at curtailing
the Histadrut's power and would expose weaknesses in their
ability to control the increasingly independent member unions.
As a result, the Histadrut executive has proposed a relatively
moderate package for wage increases on an order of 10 to 15
percent in an effort to bridge the gap between union militants
and the government.
I Finance Minister Ehrlich, the head of the Liberal
faction of Likud, seems bent on rejecting large wage increases
that would undercut the economic reform program he launched
last fall. He has shown little interest so far in a compromise
on this point and has even let it be known privately that the
government is prepared for a protracted struggle with the
unions.
I It is questionable, however, that the government has
the political will to adhere to a rigid line in the face of
threats of serious dislocations in the economy. It has already
weakened its position by granting large pay increases to senior
government officials, including cabinet ministers and Knesset
members. Begin, moreover, is likely to come under increasing
pressure from members of his Herut faction of Likud to accommo-
date the interests of the faction's largely working-class
constituents.
I I Herut trade union leaders and members of parliament
nave s arply criticized Ehrlich's economic policies and have
even criticized Begin for neglecting their concerns. Begin thus
faces the dilemma of reconciling the widely divergent interests
of the Liberal and Herut factions without undermining the
credibility of the government's economic policies.
The Labor Party, which is just beginning to show
signs o revival, seems to sense the government's vulnerability
on social and economic issues. Should the cabinet mismanage
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negotiations with the labor unions, Labor Party ileaders will
almost certainly try to capitalize on popular
i
ve.
ut the Begin government on the defens
I I
ZAIRE-ANGOLA: Easing Relations
A new exchange of public messages between Angolan
President Neto and Zairian President Mobutu may Zead to a re-
sumption of talks on easing strained relations. Neither leader,
however, appears ready to alter policies unacceptable to the
other.
I Last week Neto sent Mobutu a "Dear Brother" letter
similar to messages that culminated in an inconclusive meeting
in January between their representatives in Brazzaville, Congo.
Neto's letter pledged that Angola would not start hostilities
and reaffirmed a desire for an early solution to bilateral
problems. Mobutu responded in kind, although he added that bor-
der problems fostered by Angola prejudiced their relations.
I The exchange may at least stem the escalation of propa-
ganda between the two countries. Each side blamed the other in
helcommonnbothen, rder.and
January for the ldefensive progress toward
both armies took
The two sides are likely to meet again before long,
but i remains doubtful that they can make accommodations that
would produce good relations.
rvival depended on it, could do what
i
s su
Mobutu, if h
Neto wants him to--turn his back on the Angolan factions that
continue to deny the legitimacy of the Soviet- and Cuban-backed
Neto government. He would be reluctant, however, to antagonize
the anti-Communist governments that support both Zaire and the
principal Angolan
aire insurgent
subversion of Z
surgents collapse.
could try to expel or disarm the Ka-
t
o
I Similarly, Ne
tangans, who continue occasional forays into Zaire's Shaba would
To do so, however,
ola
An
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n
Region from their sanctuary
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be to give up his principal means of influencing Mobutu. In
Neto's eyes, the Katangans' presence helps keep Mobutu cautious
toward Angola.
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Mobutu and Neto are unlikely to yield these means of
putting pressure on each other. About all that can be expected
from new talks is a tacit agreement--which probably would be 25X1
ignored by insurgents in both countries--to relax tensions alon
the border and tone down propaganda exchanges.
USSR: Kulakov's Speeches and Books
Competition among the would-be successors to, Soviet
President Brezhnev continues to intensify with the publication
in Pravda of a lengthy, favorable review of Politburo member
KuZakov's collected speeches and articles. The Pravda review
is the latest in a series of indications that Kulakov has a
Zeg up on other leaders in their early 60s who are considered
contenders in the Zooming political succession, notably Brezh-
nev's favorite, Politburo member Shcherbitskiy.
The review dealt primarily with Kulakov's assigned
area of agricultural policy, but it suggested that Kulakov's
solutions to problems were applicable to broader Soviet prob-
lems. This suggestion is reminiscent of Kulakov's self-char-
acterization in his speech at the Kremlin ceremony honoring
his 60th birthday last month, when he explained the scope of
his experience in terms extending beyond the agricultural re-
sponsibilities that Brezhnev had stressed in his congratulatory
speech.
The publication of Kulakov's book places him in the
elite company of Brezhnev, Premier Kosygin, and Politburo mem-
bers Suslov and Kirilenko among Soviet leaders so honored. A
book by Shcherbitskiy, published last fall, ranged widely
over general aspects of political leadership, and a new book
by him on such matters has just been released in the Ukraine,
but this kind of publication does not appear to carry the same
prestige as a collection of speeches and articles.
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birthday contrasted sharply with the modest treatment given
Shcherbitskiy, who also was 60 last month but has yet to
the event commemorated at a Kremlin awards ceremony.
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Senegal
I I President Senghor won another five-year term last
Sunday in Senegal's first multiparty presidential and parlia-
mentary election. His centrist Socialist Party captured 82 per-
cent of the vote, losing only 17 of 100 seats in the national
assembly to the rightwing Senegalese Democratic Party. The
Marxist-Leninist party failed to win a seat.
I
Diouf in the bid for the presidency.
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The 71-year-old Senghor, who has been President since
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independence in 1960, is a major leader among moderate French-
speaking West African states and has actively sought peaceful
solutions to African problems. For the past two years, he has
nurtured a three-party democratic system; by subjecting his own
party to political competition, Senghor hopes he can build an
organization strong enough to outlive his leadership and to
guide the transition to his eventual successor.
I Speculation is widespread that Senghor will resign
midway t rough his new term so that his constitutional suc-
cessor, 43-year-old Prime Minister Abdou Diouf, can become es-
tablished as the ruling party's favorite candidate in the 1983
election. Diouf, Prime Minister since 1970, lacks Senghor's
charisma, and his support--particularly in the Army--is ques-
tionable. Other senior members of Senahor's party may challenge
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