NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010106-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 106
• Publication Date: December 16, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday 16 December 1977 CG NIDC 77/291C
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, 16 December 1977.
L The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
ISRAEL: Cairo Conference Begins
USSR: Brezhnev's General Health
SAUDI ARABIA - SOUTH YEMEN
CANADA-EURATOM: Nuclear Pact
TURKEY: Coalition in Trouble
JAPAN: Interest in Chinese Oil
USSR
Netherlands
Western Sahara - France
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ISRAEL: Cairo Conference Begins
//Hopes are running high in Israel as the Cairo
conference begins. Although the public remains in the dark on
where the negotiations are headed, there is a general feeling
that at least a settlement with Egypt is within reach.//
//Popular support: for Prime Minister Begin has
soared, giving him plenty of room to maneuver. If he should de-
cide to adopt a softer position, Begin would almost certainly
be able to carry the public with him. By the same token, expec-
tations have been raised so high that a serious public backlash
could occur if negotiations fail as a result of what appeared
to be Israeli intransigence.//
/Although there is some concern that Egyptian
President a at may not be prepared to deviate from his public
positions, most Israelis in fact believe that a separate peace
agreement is possible and would be the most desirable outcome.//
/There is some uneasiness, however, that Begin
will not prove sufficiently flexible. His negotiating position
remains an engima to the Israeli public, which is unsure whether
his toughness reflects ideological rigidity or shrewd bargaining
tactics. This concern has surfaced even within the governing co-
alition among the more dovish members of the Democratic Movement
for Change, the orthodox Agudat Yisrael Party, the Liberal fac-
tion of Begin's Likud bloc, and the National Religious Party.//
//Moderates in the coalition are prepared to make
territorial concessions on the West Bank and fear Begin's oppo-
sition on this score could prevent Israel from reaching agree-
ment with Egypt even on a bilateral settlement. As a result,
Interior Minister Burg, the titular head of the National Relig-
ious Party and leader of its moderate wing, recently advocated
a national referendum to determine whether the public wants to
give the government a mandate to negotiate a withdrawal from
the West Bank.//
a consensus now appears to have formed in favor
of proposing some sort of turnover of functional responsibili-
ties along the lines advocated by Foreign Minister Dayan. Dayan
apparently is trying to generate broad support within Likud for
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such a proposal. The opposition Labor Party has also come out
in favor of a functional compromise at least as an interim step
toward resolving the Palestinian problem.//
//In a somewhat unexpected departure,. Deputy De-
fense Minister Ziporri, a Likud hard-liner, said in a press
interview earlier this week that Israel is also prepared to give
back most of the Golan Heights,, except for certain strategic
"footholds," and that Israeli settlers would have to decide
whether they wanted to live under Syrian sovereignty or return
to Israel.//
//These developments suggest that Begin and Dayan
may be calculating that an offer of sweeping concessions in the
Sinai, a functional compromise on the West Bank, and a substan-
tial Israeli withdrawal on the Golan Heights would stand a good
chance of meeting Sadat's criteria for a comprehensive settle-
ment, "in principle," thus freeing Egypt to conclude a bilateral
accord with Israel. They are probably skeptical that Syria and
the Palestine Liberation organization would find these proposals
acceptable.//
//Should the prospects of a bilateral agreement
appear to be slipping away, pressures from coalition moderates
and the Labor party would probably begin to mount on Begin to
reconsider his opposition to a territorial partition of the
West Bank. Were Sadat in that instance, however, to continue to
insist on almost total withdrawal, a bitter sense of disillu-
sionment with negotiations could set in among the Israeli lead-
ership and general public.//
//Meanwhile, Begin appears completely in charge.
Most of the cabinet--with the exception of Dayan and Defense
Minister Weizman--has not had a direct hand in formulating 25X1
Israel's negotiating strategy, and has probably been kept in-
formed only in a general way. 25X1
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USSR: Brezhnev's General Health
Soviet President Brezhnev failed to appear at the
opening of the winter session of the USSR Supreme Soviet on
Wednesday or at its second meeting yesterday, apparently for
reasons of health. He also suddenly canceled a meeting with
West German Social Democratic Party leader Willy Brandt.
This would have been Brezhnev's first opportunity
to preside over the opening of a regular session of the Soviet
legislature in his new role as head of state. Wednesday's
meeting formally approved the 1978 economic plan and budget,
which had been reviewed and passed on to the Supreme Soviet
by a plenary meeting of the Party Central Committee the previous
day. The Supreme Soviet is expected to hold its final meeting
today.
randt's visit had been planned for a long time,
but it was never officially announced by the Soviets. In an-
nouncing its cancellation, a Social Democratic spokesman in
Bonn said Brezhnev had proposed another meeting as soon as
possible.
According to the Soviet press, Brezhnev delivered a
long speech to the Central Committee meeting on Tuesday. The
speech has not been published, but if the Central Committee
resolution was any guide, Brezhnev reviewed chronic economic
problems and prescribed timeworn remedies.
We have no evidence that Brezhnev's general health
has taken a serious turn for the worse. Embassy officers had
a good opportunity to observe him at close range at the
funeral ceremonies for Marshal Vasilyevskiy on 7 and 8 December
and described the President as appearing to be in reasonably
good health, considering his age and history of medical problems.
Brezhnev will be 71 on Monday. He is prone to wide swings in
physical stamina, and he carefully husbands his strength after
periods of rigorous activity.
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I I Saudi Arabia appears to be reverting to a
Less conciliatory policy toward South Yemen after a prolonged
attempt to induce moderation in that country's poZicies through
promises o economic aid.
Until recently, Saudi policy toward South Yemen was
based on a belief that Aden would moderate its radical leftist
policies if offered economic aid by Saudi Arabia and other
Persian Gulf states. This policy, advocated by Crown Prince
Fahd, was a reversal of the tough policy of Defense Minister
Prince Sultan, who had dominated Saudi policy toward both Yemens
since the late 1960s. Under Fahd's policy, the Saudis agreed to
supply crude oil to Aden's refinery and established diplomatic
relations with South Yemen for the first time earlier this year.
In addition to a general moderation of South Yemeni
policies, Saudi Arabia sought three specific responses:
--- An end to South Yemen's support for the Dhofari.rebel-
lion in neighboring Oman.
--- An end to its support for international terrorists.
-- An end to its aid and support for Ethiopia, and a with-
drawal of its advisers from the conflict in the Horn
of Africa.
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I //Canada and Euratom have moved another step closer
to a nuclear safeguards agreement under which Canada would re-
sume shipment of uranium to EC members. The Euratom technical
staff and the EC Commission have given preliminary approval to
the draft text, which is to be submitted to the Council of Mini-
sters for approval next Tuesday.//
I /Canada has been seeking safeguards agreements
on the use and re-sale of its uranium in an effort to prevent
nuclear proliferation. It has been especially concerned about
the spread of nuclear reprocessing facilities. The EC countries
have been unwilling to accept outside veto power over uranium
once they have purchased it. In the compromise now being put
forward, Canada agrees to "consultations" instead of "approval"
before reprocessing of Canadian-supplied nuclear fuel takes
place within the Community.//
/If approved by the EC, the agreement then must
be ratif-i y the Canadian Parliament. Canadian uranium pro-
ducers, unhappy over the lengthy ban on shipments to their big-
gest customers, will be pressing Parliament to approve the pact.
Canada supplies about half of the natural uranium required by
EC members.//
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//Smooth sailing is not assured. Canadian insistence
that this is only an interim agreement, to last until the Inter-
national Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation study is completed,
probably in about two years, has annoyed some West Europeans.
Another stumbling block may be a French delay in giving bilateral
assurance to Canada that no Canadian uranium would be used in
nuclear explosions.//
/Canada imposed an embargo on uranium shipments
to western Europe and Japan late last year when it decided
tougher safeguards should be imposed. Canadian officials re-
cently have indicated that Canada is moderating its position
somewhat because of domestic and international pressures ./ 25X1
TURKEY: Coalition In Trouble
Turkish Prime Minister DemireZ's Justice Party
continues to Lose strength; two more of its deputies resigned
today. Nine Legislators have now quit the party since October
in apparent protest of DemireZ's inability to deal with Turkey's
mounting political and economic problems. More resignations are
likely, and the survival of Demirel's coalition is now in seri-
ous doubt.
1//Demirel's National Front coalition now commands
219 votes in the National Assembly, seven short of a majority.
The three coalition partners--the Justice Party, the National
Salvation Party, and the National Action Party--have met fre-
quently in the last several days, apparently for strategy ses-
sions. Demirel was scheduled to meet with his own administrative
council last night to discuss party options, including how to
placate dissident deputies frustrated about the coalition's
lack of direction.//
//Opposition leader Ecevit, of the Republican
People's Party, has been somewhat restrained in his public
statements, probably in order to avoid creating an overly opti-
mistic air of pending victory.
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has displayed little desire to unite with other parties to form
a government, but he will not want to repeat his error of last
June, when he attempted unsuccessfully
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//If Demirel does resign, Ecevit will have to
create some form of coalition if he is to gain power. Ecevit
JAPAN: Interest in Chinese Oil
I//Japan has apparently decided to pursue a
Long-term trade agreement with China under which Peking would
more than double its oil exports to Japan by 1982, to 300,000
barrels per day, in exchange for industrial plants and con-
struction equipment. Tokyo's renewed interest in the $10 biZ-
Zion, eight-year deal apparently stems from a desire to push
exports to Communist countries in the face of growing problems
in Western markets.//
I /Japanese consumers of Chinese oil--including re-
finers, steel mills, and power companies--have been the main
obstacle to the negotiations, which have been under way for
nearly four years. They do not want to handle large quantities
of Chinese oil because:
-- It currently must be blended with other crudes before
processing.
--- It is difficult to store, transport, and use.
-- It carries less profit potential than other crudes.
It could upset relations with Indonesian suppliers.//
25X1. //At present, Japan consumes about 130,000 bar-
rels per day of Chinese crude, with about 40 percent going to
power companies and steel mills for direct burning. Japanese
consumers have been saying they can absorb only about 220,000
barrels per day of Chinese crude without new refinery capacity
to handle the oil directly.//
//Tokyo is now trying to convince Japanese con-
sumers to accept up to 300,000 barrels per day of Chinese oil
by 1982, with possibly even larger shipments in succeeding
years. In part, the firmer government attitude reflects the
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ideas of the new Japanese Minister of International Trade and
Industry, Toshio Komoto, who is a believer in export-led growth
and a long-time advocate of expanding economic ties with com-
munist countries.//
//To encourage domestic oil consumers, the gov-
ernmen is proposing to help finance a new 100,000-barrel-per-
day cracking facility to process Chinese crude exclusively.
Tokyo may also make some concessions to allow for pollution
caused by the direct burning of the oil.//
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The Soviets' investigation of the case against dissi-
dent Anatoliy Shcharanskiy, who was arrested on 15 March, has
been extended for another six months, according to Western news-
men in Moscow. Soviet legal procedure calls for an investiga-
tion leading either to an indictment or the release of the ac-
cused within nine months of arrest. Extensions of investigations,
however, have been frequently obtained by the KGB in politically
sensitive cases.
The procedural move evidently gives the Soviet lead-
ership additional time to choose among the available options in
the case and to assess their potential impact on Soviet-US rela-
tions. It also means that a major dissident trial has been
avoided during the Belgrade CSCE review conference, which is
about to recess.
The Soviets are probably aware that the extension
could be portrayed abroad as Moscow's giving in to Western
pressure; they may increase their propaganda alleging US intelli-
gence involvement in Soviet dissident affairs. They may also pri-
vately stress that the extension of the investigation is for "up
to" six months and does not preclude an earlier indictment and
trial.
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Dutch Prime Minister designate Andreas van Agt an-
nounced his center-right cabinet yesterday. The new cabinet is
expected to be sworn in by Queen Juliana on Monday.
Van Agt reportedly had difficulty persuading members
of the Christian Democratic or Liberal parties to accept cabi-
net positions because of uncertainity over whether the two-
party coalition will command a majority in parliament. The new
government is assured of only 70 votes in the 150-seat lower
house. Van Agt is counting on the votes of seven uncommitted
Christian Democrats and six other rightist deputies to attain a
majority on most issues. F7 I 25X1
The Algerian-backed Polisario Front, which is fight-
ing the partitioning of Western Sahara by Morocco and Mauritania,
has agreed to release eight French hostages to UN Secretary Gen-
eral Kurt Waldheim on 23 December.
I IThe Front has obtained maximum propaganda value from 25X1
its cap ure of the Frenchmen and probably decided on the release
at this time hoping France will now be persuaded to reduce its
support to Mauritania and Morocco.
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