NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010042-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
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• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2006
• Sequence Number: 42
• Publication Date: November 8, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 0
Tuesday 8 November 1977 CG NIDC 77/259C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
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 Approved Fo
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, 8 November 1977
The NID Cable is for the purpose o in orming
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Accord Losing Ground. Page 1
CHINA-USSR:
60th Anniversary
Page 2
WEST GERMANY:
Schmidt's Morale
Page 4
ALGERIA-MOROCCO-FRANCE:
Relations
Page 5
ISRAEL - SOUTH AFRICA:
Relations
Page 6
BRIEF
Page 7
USSR
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LEBANON: Accord Losing Ground
at-
tempt to arrange a withdrawal of Palestinians~fromrcthetIsraeli
border area of southern Lebanon is Losing ground. While it is
not clear whether the Christian-Israeli camp or the Palestinian
camp is chiefly to blame, both parties undoubtedly share re-
sponsibiZity.//
We have no evidence to confirm that Isra
l i
e
s demand-
ing new conditions; there are signs, however, that the Pales-
tinian position is again hardening. At minimum, the Palestine
Liberation organization is having great difficulty getting the
rejectionists and their leftist Lebanese allies to go along
with any withdrawals. Some Palestinian groups still insist that
any Palestinian withdrawal must be "balanced" by withdrawals of
Christian militias and by the closure of the "good fence"--the
arrangement that allows Christians in the south to pass into
Israel for medical treatment and sometimes jobs.
Recent public statements by Yasir Arafat seem to
dramatize Palestinian unwillingness to budge under present
circumstances. In a speech Sunday he said that there would
be "no withdrawal, not one step." The speech may, however,
have been designed to reassure the rejectionists and others
that he has no intention of selling out the Palestinian move-
ment.
I uIn a more conciliatory statement on Saturday, Salah
Kftalaf , Fatah's chief negotiator in Lebanon, stressed Pales-
tinian readiness to implement the Shaturah agreement. Khalaf,
however, blamed Israel for holding up the Palestinian with-
drawal by its insistence on maintaining the good fence and by
its unwillingness to allow Lebanese Army units to enter
tory now held by the Christians,
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CHINA-USSR: 60th Anniversary
China's commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the
Bolshevik Revolution was marked by the turnout of slightly
higher level Chinese officials than in recent years but by
routine anti--Soviet statements. Together with such develop-
ments as the recent agreement on some aspects of navigation
on the border rivers and the dispatch of a new ambassador to
Moscow in August, Peking's handling of the anniversary sug-
gests that it is adopting a more correct style in its formal
dealings with Moscow without altering the heavily anti-Soviet
content of overall policy.
Chinese Foreign Minister Huang Hua attended the So-
viet assador's anniversary reception on 7 November--the
first time in 11 years that a ministerial-level Chinese offi-
cial attended the annual event. Last week, National People's
Congress Vice Chairman Ngapo Ngawang-jigme--a Tibetan and the
minorities figurehead in China's "parliament"--attended the
annual film reception given by the China-.USSR Friendship Asso-
ciation. The Chinese have sent much lower level officials in
the past.
I In addition to the higher protocol surrounding these
social events on 6 November, China's three leading newspapers
for the first time in a decade published a joint editorial
marking the Soviet anniversary. The editorial, however, repeats
Peking's standard accusations that the current Soviet leader-
ship is betraying the policies of Lenin and Stalin, and quotes
Mao Tse-tung's prophecy that the leaders in Moscow will be
overthrown by the Soviet people.
I Peking's official anniversary message to Moscow--sent
as in a past by the National People's Congress and the State
Council to their Soviet counterparts--added nothing to the
usual affirmation of interest in improving state-to-state re-
lations despite ideological differences. The message, for ex-
ample, describes "the understanding" reached between Chou
En-lai and Premier Kosygin in September 1969 as the "key" to
the normalization of relations. To the Chinese, the operational
aspect of the understanding is their demand for Soviet agreement
"
"
disputed areas
to military withdrawals from Chinese-defined
along the border as a prerequisite to substantive discussions
on the territorial dispute. This demand has been a major stum-
bling block in the border talks.
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ordeal, US Ambassador StoesseZ noted that ChanceZZor Schmidt's
morale rose sharply, along with his personal standing in the
country. The change in the ChanceZZor is caZZed "striking" by
many observers, who had found Schmidt worn and frustrated by
intractable economic issues prior to the SchZeyer kidnapping
in early September. The Ambassador, who saw Schmidt several
times between the kidnapping and the freeing of the hostages
in Mogadiscio on 18 October, was impressed by the Chancellor's
confidence and alertness.
cellor's leadership of the all-party "crisis staff" has been
a notable success both with the German people and the political
professionals in Bonn. This did not come too soon. The govern-
ment's weak majority and Schmidt's earlier, depressed mood had
prompted some among the opposition to question openly his
qualification to be Chancellor.
y insisting on a crisis staff including leaders of
all established political parties, Schmidt forestalled what
could have been a damaging parliamentary dispute over anti-
terrorist measures. He emerged as the apostle of national unity,
while the opposition, which governs where the maximum security
prison for terrorists is located, was blamed for lax conditions
that led to suicides by several key terrorist prisoners.
During the West German Government's recent terrorist
It is apparent from the German press that the Chan-
Of special importance to Bonn, the achievement at
Mogadiscio blunted and, to a degree, refuted a rising chorus
of critical political commentary from West Germany's European
neighbors. Commentators--particularly in France and Italy--
have been finding in West German terrorism evidence of abso-
lutist solutions, authoritarian behavior or other conduct
reminiscent of the Nazi regime.
Reaction to this criticism had somewhat envenomed
West German internal politics, and the sudden wealth of foreign
praise for the rescue operation in Somalia was gratefully re-
ceived. The Chancellor, who tends to regard such foreign criti-
cisms as a reflection of envy for West Germany's economic and
social achievements, became the main beneficiary of the over-
night improvement in the West German image.
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At the same time, the growing anxiety of West German
citizens about the possibility of further terrorist attacks is
generally believed to be stirring popular sentiment for the use
of vigorous state authority, a position traditionally advocated
by the opposition. Chancellor Schmidt's new image as a tough,
antiterrorist manager will do much to offset such sentiment.
Despite the Chancellor's success, the opposition will make the
case that they can deal more effectively with the terrorists.
In responding to this challenge, Schmidt will play
the role of the careful enforcer and defender of the legal order.
He is advising voters not to be entirely insensitive to foreign
criticisms, to consider that West German citizens and politicians
cannot afford to be known to violate or evade laws or to over-
react to political provocation abruptly and forcefull 25X1
ALGERIA-MOROCCO-FRANCE: Relations
Tensions between Algeria and Morocco are again
rising as a result of recent successes by Algerian-backed PoZi-
sario Front guerriZZas in Western Sahara and Mauritania. The
intensified guerrilla activity has also strained Algeria's re-
lations with France, which has temporarily suspended its nego-
tiations with the guerriZZas for the release of French hostages.
I n a nationwide address Sunday evening, Morocco's
King Hassan denounced the recent escalation in guerrilla activ-
ity in Western Sahara and warned Algeria that if it continued
he would be compelled to exercise the "right of pursuit" to
protect Moroccan sovereignty. Hassan also said the guerrillas
were using heavy artillery and armor, implying that Algerians
were directly involved in the fighting.
I //We cannot confirm that the guerrillas are using
more sop isticated weapons or that the Algerians are taking
more than an advisory role in the fighting. Recent guerrilla
successes are, in part, the result of Moroccan ineptitude.//
This is not the first time that Hassan has issued
such a warning to Algeria. As in the past, he carefully avoided
setting deadlines or specifying what hot pursuit might entail.
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We continue to believe Hassan will avoid conventional military
retaliation against Algeria, but he may approve increased irreg-
ular commando raids against Polisario sanctuaries.
The Algerian media have reacted sharply to Hassan's
speech. In an editorial designed primarily for domestic consump-
tion, Algeria's leading Arabic newspaper warned yesterday that
any violation of Algeria's borders would be considered a declar-
ation of war. A subsequent government communique was more re-
strained, referring only to grave consequences in the event of
a border violation.
//Although the Algerians have in fact tolerated
sporadic incursions by Moroccan irregular patrols over the past
year,// they presumably felt compelled to make a firm public
response to Hassan's speech. They will continue to support the
guerrillas while trying to avoid a direct military confrontation
with Morocco.
Algeria has also begun propaganda attacks on France
in response to French military and diplomatic tactics designed
to secure the release of French hostages held by the Polisario.
The Algerians seem determined to gain as much propaganda mileage
as possible from negotiations between French emissary Claude
Chayet and Polisario representatives. Chayet, who suspended ne-
gotiations Sunday to return to Paris for consultations, may re-
turn to Algiers next week.
The French are under no illusions that they can quickly
negotiate the prisoners' release. Chayet talked for five months
last year before he secured the release of two hostages; an
equally prolonged effort may be necessary this time
ISRAEL - SOUTH AFRICA: Relations
/Israel will abide by the UN Security Council
Resolution calling for an arms embargo on South Africa, ac-
cording to a statement issued by the Foreign Ministry yesterday.
The statement apparently was designed to clarify Foreign Min-
ister Dayan's remark on 6 November that TeZ Aviv would not
abandon South Africa.//
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/The Israelis are well aware that public defiance
o. sane ions would anger the US and give the Arabs a ready-
made issue with which to attack Israel in the General Assembly
or even to press for sanctions against Israel itself.//
I //Dayan's statement was probably designed to re-
assure South Africa that the two countries would continue their
relations in other spheres and that Israel would not push for
revocation of existing licensing arrangements for the produc-
tion of arms. 25X1
I Soviet Defense Minister Ustinov's short address to
the troops in Red Square on the 60th anniversary of the Bol-
shevik Revolution was unexceptional. Ustinov briefly surveyed
Soviet progress during the past 60 years, praised Brezhnev as
a "loyal successor to the Leninist cause," and referred to
recent advances in relaxing international tension and strength-
ening peace.
Ustinov's statements that the USSR is "taking the
necessary steps" to strengthen the nation's defense posture
and that the armed forces will be ready to deal with any ag-
gressor is standard fare. He seemed to stress the strength of
the Soviet forces for strategic deterrence by remarking that
the nation's defense potential is "maintained at so high a
level that no one would risk disturbing our peaceful life."
I IHe made no specific reference to the strategic arms
limitations talks or the force reduction negotiations, repeating
only the familiar theme that the Soviets are doing their best
to ensure peace, strengthen detente, and promote disarmament.
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