NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010038-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2006
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: November 5, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Saturday 5 November 1977 CG NIDC 77/257C
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday, 5 November 1977.
T e NID Cable is for t o purpose o in orming
senior US officials.
INDIA-USSR: Desai's Foreign Policy
NIGERIA: South Africa Boycott
Chile
The Netherlands
Bulgaria
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INDIA-USSR: Desai's Foreign Policy
I Indian Prime Minister Morarji Desai's recent trip to
Moscow and his plan to play host to President Carter this month
reveal aspects of the "genuine nonalignment" policy proclaimed
by India's Leaders. The new policy does not mark any signifi-
cant break with the past; New Delhi still values its close ties
with Moscow although the Janata Party government appears to be
Less suspicious of and more responsive to US initiatives than
its predecessors have been. Desai apparently wants cordial per-
sonal relations with Soviet Leader Brezhnev as well as with
President Carter, seems willing to accept massive amounts of
aid in selected areas from both countries, and adamantly re-
fuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as supported
by both the US and the USSR.
Desai went to Moscow late last. month to assure the
Soviet leadership of India's continued good will. He was pleased
by the outcome of his visit. The Prime Minister was given VIP
treatment, which reflected the importance with which the Soviet
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Union views India, and he had long and apparently frank talks
with President Brezhnev. In their joint communique, the two
leaders reaffirmed the principles of the Indo-Soviet Friendship
Treaty of 1971.
Both leaders refrained from bringing up contentious
issues like the rupee-ruble exchange rate. Brezhnev did not try
to elicit any commitments toward Asian collective security--
long a goal of Soviet diplomacy--and Desai chose not to criti-
cize the Soviet leadership on human rights matters. Desai left
Moscow with promises of possible Soviet aid in modernizing India's
aluminum, coal, steel and iron industries along with plans to
strengthen the Soviet-Indian Joint Commission as a vehicle for
increasing Indian trade with the USSR.
Desai refused to accede to Brezhnev's request that
India sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in its present
form; Desai, who like most Indians regards the treaty as dis-
criminatory, later stated at a news conference that he saw no
difference between Soviet and US positions on this issue. He
said the US and Soviet efforts to negotiate the demilitarization
of the Indian Ocean area accorded with India's own interests.
The Soviet leaders also were pleased with the results
o the visit, and was relieved that Desai was willing to continue
a close relationship with them. Since the 1960s, India has been
the cornerstone of Soviet policy in South Asia and the Indian
Ocean. The USSR has seen India as the only power in the region
capable of balancing the Chinese and has supplied New Delhi
with large amounts of sophisticated military equipment and eco-
nomic aid. More recently, the Soviet leadership has also begun
to see India as a possible counterweight to the growing regional
role of Iran.
Relations with India had caused Moscow some concern
since Desai's election in March. The Soviets feared that the
Janata government's "genuine" nonalignment policy was a cover
for pro-Western sympathies and would eventually lead to a de-
cline in Soviet influence in India and, ultimately, throughout
South Asia.
At the conclusion of his visit., however, the Indian
leader indicated that he thought the Soviet-Indian relationship,
especially in economic and technical fields, should continue
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and deepen. These sentiments presumably reflect an awareness
in New Delhi that India is still dependent on the Soviet Union
for a good deal of its sophisticated military equipment.
Foreign Minister Vajpayee stated only this week that the Indian
Government was looking forward to President Carter's visit and
appreciated the "remarkable change" in the US attitude toward
India. The substantive results of President Carter's talks with
Indian leaders, however, are likely to be similar to the outcome
of Desai's trip to the USSR; a willingness to accept aid, a de-
sire to increase Indian exports, but a refusal to sign the Non-
The new Indian Government is likely to work hard to
ensure a warm greeting for President Carter if he visits India.
Proliferation Treaty.
NIGERIA: South Africa Boycott
The Nigerian Government remains undecided about how
firm a policy to adopt to discourage foreign companies from do-
ing business with South Africa. This week, the regime's second-
ranking official, Brigadier Yar Adua, seemed to advocate a
harder stance than has been taken by Head of State Obasanjo
and a committee of civil servants charged with recommending
specific measures for approval by the ruling Supreme Military
Counci Z.
In a meeting with the Nigerian Chamber of Commerce,
Yar Adua declared that "strong measures" had to be taken against
multinational corporations that "were supporting the apartheid
regime." He said that, regardless of what the committee recom-
mends, the government already has decided that firms operating
in both Nigeria and South Africa will be required to cease fur-
ther investment in South Africa and to agree to a gradual re-
duction in present investment there. New firms seeking to in-
vest in Nigeria will have to end equity ownership in South Af-
rica first, while firms now operating in Nigeria and having no
investment in South Africa must continue to stay out.
I At the same time, Yar Adua cautioned that Nigeria had
to proceed carefully so as to cause the least damage to its
economy, and he said that none of the foregoing requirements
would be applied to firms selling technical know-how to Nigeria.
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Yar Adua functions as a prime minister and heads a
clique of young, ultranationalist northern officers of which
Obasanjo, as a southerner, must be mindful. Last year, Yar Adua
played a key role in the government's adoption of stricter re-
quirements for expanded Nigerian participation in and control
of foreign-owned businesses that has slowed new foreign invest-
ment.
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I hilean President Pinochet's choice of a highly re-
spected retired army general to head the National Center for
Information is another effort by the military regime to improve
its tarnished human rights image and its relations with the US.
The center was formed in August to replace the widely
discredited National Intelligence Directorate (DINA). In alert-
ing a senior US Embassy official in advance that Odlanier Mena
Salinas would become head of the new agency, the Chilean Govern-
ment appeared to be demonstrating its interest in responding to
US concerns. Foreign Minister Carvajal told the Embassy that
Mena is "an excellent person" and that his appointment will be
followed by other personnel changes in the new agency as well
as by a further restructuring of that organization.
Mena appears to have good credentials for the job.
Highly regarded for his professional ability and friendliness
toward the US, he was until October 1975 director of army in-
telligence. At that time he suddenly retired, reportedly over
personal concern for human rights abuses and out of resentment
over the expansion of DINA operations into what he considered
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The Netherlands
Dutch caretaker Prime Minister den Uyl yesterday
gave up, for the fourth time since the election last May, his
attempts to form a new government. Interparty talks on a coali-
tion broke down when den Uyi's Labor Party and the Christian
Democrats could not agree on a list of ministers.
Although this latest breakdown could spell the end
o en y 's four and a half years in office, mediators may
once again succeed in patching up the differences. According to
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press reports, den Uyl balked at accepting a list that might be
voted down by the Labor Party congress that opens today. Once
the congress is over, he may try again.
I n any case, den Uyl is likely to remain in the care-
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Bulgaria
Bulgaria has reported that the epicenter of the earth-
quake on Thursday was 100 kilometers southeast of Sofia. The
quake measured 5 on the Richter scale and was felt throughout
the country. No loss of life has been reported, although there
was some damage to the Velingrad-Varvara railroad and to build-
ings in the village of Vetren Dol at the epicenter. There was
minor damage in neighboring towns. Repairs have already begun.
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