NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010036-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 31, 2006
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: November 4, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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IA-RDP79TOO975AO30400T8p~6ecret 219
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those approved for the following specific activities:
Friday 4 November 1977 CG NIDC 77/256C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, 4 November 1977.
25X1
The NID Cable is or the purpose o informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
RHODESIA: White Attitudes
Page 4
SOUTH KOREA: Political Prisoners
Page 6
SOUTH AFRICA: Whites To Keep Power
Page 7
SOMALIA: Siad Seeks Western Aid
Page 8
INDIA: Foodgrain Surpluses
Page 9
ROMANIA: Party Personnel Shuffle
Page 10
CUBA: Increasing Crime Rate
Page
JAPAN: Fiber Optical Communications
INDONESIA-UN: Prospects for Timor
Page 13
Page 13
BURMA: Heavy Casualties
CAMBODIA-THAILAND: Fighting
Page 14
Page 15
CHINA - WEST GERMANY: Trade Page 16
BRIEFS Page 18
Lebanon, USSR - West Europe, UN, Portugal, France
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RHODESIA: White Attitudes
//Most Rhodesian whites apparently remain
opefu t a a se tZement can be arranged that will protect
their interests. They support Prime Minister Smith's stand
against disbanding the Rhodesian security forces, however, be-
cause they fear retribution against whites by the black nation-
alists. White emigration from Rhodesia remains high, and many
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are making contingency plans to leave quickly if the security
situation deteriorates. Some businessmen have ceased planning
for the future.//
1 -1 there
is an underlying Hope among many w i s he
world will see the righteousness of their cause and that a new
government will come to power in the UK and take a more "under-
standing" approach toward Rhodesia. Many Rhodesian whites have
been encouraged by the recent hard-line position taken by South
Africa against pressure from the West. Whites generally appear
to believe that the security forces can continue to contain the
guerrillas indefinitely.//
I //More than 1,000 whites are emigrating each
month. Recently, increasing numbers of doctors, dentists, teach-
ers, and older people who had substantial stakes in Rhodesia
have been leaving. Some whites are putting their assets into
gold, diamonds, and other small valuables that can be taken out
of the country if necessary.//
//Some Rhodesian businessmen are becoming
more pessimistic about prospects for a settlement because they
believe Smith has toughened his negotiating position as a re-
sult of his party's landslide victory in the election in August.
They fear Smith is now content to play for time despite his
campaign statements about majority rule before the end of the
year. The businessmen also worry that South African Prime Min-
ister Vorster would sacrifice Rhodesia's interests to stave off
economic sanctions against his country.//
//Only very large businesses are doing any
long-range planning, and many farmers have stopped investing in
capital equipment. Small businessmen have ceased to stockpile
goods. One large department store in Salisbury recently went
out of business.
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SOUTH KOREA: Political Prisoners
he South Korean Government has renewed behind-the-
scenes e forts to reach a compromise with the opposition that
could result in release of political prisoners still held under
President Pak's emergency decrees. The government apparently
hopes that its initiatives will improve relations with the US.
A successful resolution of the prisoner problem is by no means
assured, however; it will require concessions by both the govern-
ment and its most militant critics.
I he major obstacle to the release of imprisoned dis-
si en s as been the government's insistence that they sign
statements of repentance. During the summer, more than 30 de-
tainees signed such statements and were freed, but several of
Pak's best known adversaries--including Kim Tae-chung, his op-
ponent in the 1971 presidential election--refused to sign.
I Kim opted to remain in prison to dramatize his con
inuin opposition to Pak's rule. Pak too du in his heels
-
To break the impasse, the Director of the Korean Cen-
tral Intelligence Agency late last month met with several prom-
inent Christian activists and a leading intellectual, all critics
of Pak in recent years, in an attempt to fashion a compromise
statement that Kim Tae-chung and others would sign. Some of the
opposition leaders apparently are cooperating because they be-
lieve that Kim's health may deteriorate in prison and that he
would be more effective in the opposition movement if released.
The effort to reach a compromise may yet be derailed
by a lack of flexibility on either side. It is noteworthy, none-
theless, that Pak has authorized his intelligence agency chief
to use critics of the regime as go-betweens and that he is
focusing on the release of Kim Tae-chung. Earlier in the sum-
mer, it had appeared that Kim would be the last to be freed of
the 150 to 200 political prisoners still in Korean jails.
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SOUTH AFRICA: Whites To Keep Power
South African Prime Minister Vorster has conceded
that .is new proposals to restructure the government would
Leave most functions in white hands. In a meeting with Leaders
of the Asian community Last week, Vorster reluctantly admitted
under intensive questioning that the proposed system of separate
parliaments for whites, Asians, and coloreds (mixed bloods)
would do little more than upgrade two ineffectual groups that
already exist--the Colored Representation Council and the South
African Indian Council.
Speaking to a meeting of the South African Indian
congress on 24 October, Vorster said white control is to be
maintained over the civil service and all government ministries
except those dealing directly with colored or Asian affairs,
as well as over the drafting of most legislation. The white
Finance Ministry will control all finances and taxing powers
and oversee the distribution of funds.
Vorster ended the meeting by stating that the govern-
ment wi make no further concessions, a departure from his
previous position that he would be willing to negotiate some
aspects of the government package. He said the Asians and
coloreds could take it or leave it.
The Prime Minister, realizing that his statements
took the lustre off the constitutional proposals as they were
originally presented in August, tried to placate the Asian
leaders by pointing out how they personally would benefit by
enjoying salaries, prestige, and perquisites of office equal to
those of whites. He elaborated on the role they would have in a
future Cabinet Council and their theoretical capability to pro-
vide an elected state president.
I uIn August, Vorster had implied that about a third of
all minis ries would be headed by Asians and coloreds and that
the civil service would be open to all three groups on a merit
basis. His admission that Asians and coloreds will be effec-
tively excluded from a meaningful role in the executive branch
of the government, coupled with the previously announced built-
up white majorities in the legislature, are bound to reduce the
support he will receive from the Asians to implement the plan.
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25X1 Leaders of the colored community have already rejected
the government proposals for a new constitutional structure on
the grounds that the plan entrenches apartheid, gives the presi-
dent dictatorial powers, and seeks to create an alliance between
whites coloreds, and Asians against the country's black major-
25X1 ity.
SOMALIA: Siad Seeks Western Aid
25X1 President Siad has stepped up his campaign to gain
western support for Somalia. He is emphasizing the dangers of
the Soviet and Cuban presence in Ethiopia and accusing Ethiopia
of expansionist ambitions. Siad, besides attempting to gain
military aid, hopes international pressure will blunt Soviet
and Cuban support for an Ethiopian counteroffensive in the
Ogaden and Lead to negotiations while Somalia has the military
advantage.
25X1 Siad's concern about Ethiopian intentions was the
main theme of a press conference with Western newsmen in Moga-
discio on Tuesday. He said Ethiopia, armed excessively by the
USSR and supported by thousands of Cuban troops, was preparing
to attack Somalia and posed a threat to other neighboring coun-
tries, especially Sudan.
25X1 In an implicit appeal for US arms, Siad said he wanted
to call t l attention of the US to its "international responsi-
bilities," and urged the US to analyze Ethiopian designs and
act accordingly.
25X1 Despite his critical remarks about the Soviets, Siad
held out the possibility of improving relations with the USSR.
He said both Somalia and the USSR have an interest in coopera-
tion.
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 Siad has obviously decided to broaden his appeal for
Western support against the Ethiopian counteroffensive he ex-
pects. He would like direct military aid but apparently also
hopes that international pressure on the USSR and Ethiopia will
lead to negotiations before Ethiopia can marshal its forces for
a counterattack.
I uIn the meantime, Siad will continue efforts to take
Harar. Mad realizes that at this point--before an Ethiopian
counteroffensive--he would be bargaining from a position of
strength, since his forces now control most of the Ogaden. It
is doubtful that he intends to make any real concessions to the
Ethiopians.
INDIA: Foodgrain Surpluses
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Two above-average crop years and a high level of
imports have pushed India's grain stocks to a record 20 million
tons. Government attempts to reduce the stocks, which are too
large to be properly stored, have so far been unsuccessful.
About two-fifths of current stocks are inadequately
stored and losses from spoilage and rodents of as much as 2
million to 3 million tons are likely. The cost of maintaining
the stockpile this year will amount to $500 million, 3 percent
of total budget expenditures.
The government has tried, with little success, to
draw down stocks by increasing sales through the government
distribution system. New Delhi has so far been reluctant to re-
duce prices charged at these outlets, and private grain distri-
butors use the government price as a floor price for their sales.
As a result, prices have remained too high for the consumers to
increase significantly their level of purchases.
India is also unlikely to be successful at using
wheat exports to reduce the surplus. The USSR has agreed to ac-
cept 1.5 million tons over the next year or two as payment for
a wheat loan granted in 1973. The government will have diffi-
culty finding additional buyers, however, because of inadequate
transport and port facilities and the generally low quality of
Indian wheat.
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Grain stocks will increase over the next two months
as the major fall harvest comes in. New Delhi is now consider-
ing both a cut in government sales prices and inauguration of
"work for food" programs.
I IGrain reserves of about 20 million tons would be
enough to offset a 15-percent crop shortfall. The probability
of a sharp drop in output in the fall of next year is high.
Weather remains the dominant variable in Indian foodgrain pro-
duction. There have been two excellent and one average rainy
seasons in the pa three ears; an extended run of good for-
tune is unlikely. 25X1
ROMANIA: Party Personnel Shuffle
ide-ranging criticism of the party cadre and indoc-
trination work at the Romanian Party Central Committee plenum
last week could lead to a reshuffle in the party apparatus.
Similar changes may be in the making in the Interior and Jus-
tice Ministries. The national party conference scheduled for
early December will discuss "improvements" in the leadership
of these ministries. Any changes in the security apparatus
would probably spark popular fears of increased restrictions.
I IPresident Ceausescu has recently become openly criti-
cal o e party's internal operations. His unhappiness may
have been increased by the way local party organizations have
handled instances of worker dissatisfaction.
The disclosure at the plenum of serious shortcomings
in cadre work--which includes the key area of personnel ap-
pointments--is most likely to affect lower level functionaries
in the central and provincial party organizations. It could
also have implications for the President's wife, who heads the
party's cadre commission, as well as for party secretaries Ilie
Verdet, and Emil Bobu, both of whom are also responsible for
cadre policies. Earlier this year, Bobu's responsibilities for
military and security affairs were transferred to another party
secretary.
I The plenum's criticism of shortcomings in political
indoctrination may reflect adversely on party secretary Cornel
Burtica, who has been in charge of ideological propaganda and
educational activity for about a year. We have had no earlier
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indication of a direct confrontation between Ceausescu and
Burtica over the latter's performance. Ceausescu has, however,
often expressed a general dissatisfaction with ideological work.
I IThe announcement of a planned shakeup in the Interior
4finis ry would inevitably lead to speculation and nervousness
among the Romanian public. Changes in the security apparatus
could portend a tightening of internal restrictions, which are
already among the most stringent in Eastern Euro e. 25X1
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CUBA: Increasing Crime Rate
I /The Cuban Government reportedly is becoming
concerned about the country's rising crime rate. Most of the
offenses involve theft or vandalism, and the government may
believe that the incidents reflect popular dissatisfaction
over Cuba's continuing economic difficulties.//
President Castro made the first official acknowledg-
ment o increasing crime in a speech in late September, but
the problem has been growing for months. In June, an authorita-
tive radio commentator in Havana called for harsher treatment
of juvenile offenders.
Castro addressed the issue in a speech commemorating
the 17t anniversary of the Committees for the Defense of the
Revolution, a vast network of neighborhood groups established
to ferret out counter-revolutionaries. Castro asserted that the
external and internal threat of counter-revolution had faded,
thereby allowing the groups to turn increasingly to the task of
combating crime.
The government clearly intends to follow up on Castro's
warnings. Three days after the speech, a large group of Interior
Ministry personnel from provinces outside Havana was assigned
to police units in the capital.
Crime levels in Cuba probably are not as high as in
most other Latin American nations. The Cuban leadership, how-
ever, is most likely concerned that the nature of most inci-
dents--theft and vandalism--reflect growing dissatisfaction
among the population over continued government austerity meas-
ures. Castro has recently attempted to play down the cost of
Cuban aid to foreign countries, an indication that a signifi-
cant number of people have associated Havana's growing interna-
tional activities with Cuba's economic downturn.
There is little chance that a serious threat to the
Castro regime will develop. Castro's personal charisma and his
control of the Cuban media have in the past enabled
generate renewed revolutionary
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JAPAN: Fiber Optical Communications
Japan
is already considered to be on a par w2 the technologically
and probably has the Zead in systems experience.
The wor market as eurren y a few m2 eon o ars annua y
but could grow to a billion dollars annually in 10 years.//
I IIn a fiber-optical communications system, light can
be use o transmit voice, video, and other data. Optical fiber
cable has significant advantages over copper cable in terms of
weight, size, carrying capacity, and immunity to electromagnetic
interference.
25X1
25X1
International interest in fiber-optical communications
has increased dramatically in the last few years because research
and development has progressed more rapidly than had been ex-
pected. If, as its advocates assert, fiber-optical communica-
tions can be made cost competitive with alternative technologies,25X1
it will lead to widespread applications in telephone networks,
instrumentation, computer interconnections, undersea cables,
electric power control networks, and aircraft.
INDONESIA-UN: Prospects for Timor
The UN General Assembly will soon adopt an
anti-In onesta resolution on the question of East Timor. Indo-
nesia maintains that East Timor is an integral part of Indo-
nesia and hence does not warrant UN consideration. While Lobby-
ing for support, Indonesia realizes that this politically em-
barrassing issue will be debated in the UN annuaZZy for the
next several ears.
The resolution was drafted by a representative of
the Revolutionary Front for an Independent East Timor (Fretilin)
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and supported largely by radical Third World and communist na-
tions. While it does not condemn Indonesia, it rejects the Indo-
nesian claim to East Timor; reaffirms the rights of the East
Timorese to self-determination and independence; requests that
the UN monitor the situation; and calls for the inclusion of the
question in the agenda of the 33rd General Assembly session.
The Indonesians have used a defensive strategy, re-
futing Fretilin claims of popular support and allegations of
Indonesian atrocities and actively seeking support from those
countries that might reciprocate for Indonesian support on other
issues. Indonesia has not, however, been able to garner suffi-
cient votes to prevent the resolution from being adopted.
countries supporting or abstaining on the resolution for ideo-
logical reasons--China, the USSR, and Vietnam--Indonesia will
continue its low-key approach.
Indonesia finds the issue highly embarrassing, but so
long as neither the debate nor the vote threaten relations with
At the same time, Indonesia is increasing
its efforts to destroy the insurgents in East Timor by offering
a general amnesty to those surrendering by the end of this year.
Ithe resistance
bilities for the Suharto government.
movemen and the-UN debate are likely to continue to be lia-
BURMA: Heavy Casualties
25X1 During a series of sharp skirmishes last month, the
ommunis s seized four positions in northern Shan State. They
failed, however, to capture a nearby objective, the town of
Hopang.
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I /The Burmese Government, perhaps to detract pub-
lic attention from Army casualties, announced that more.than
500 Communists were killed in 25 major battles in the northeast
IaRt month, The government Publicly admits to 126 army dead,
I I 25X1
Rangoon's problems with the Burmese Communists con-
tinue despite Burmese President Ne Win's goodwill visit to
Peking in September. Despite Chinese aid, the insurgents appear
in large measure to decide their
CAMBODIA-THAILAND: Fighting
I Cambodian attacks on Thai villages along the 25X1
border have Zn enstfied over the past several days, and heavy 25X1
fighting is continuing. The at aye dashed Thai hopes
that border tension would ease
Cambodian troops have initiated a number of serious
incidents at various points along the 500-mile border over the
past year, including an attack in mid-October on Thai forces
near the southernmost point of the border.
I Incidents on 28 and 29 October involved clashes at
three locations in the Aranyaprathet and Ta Phraya districts
of Prachinburi Province. A village in Chanthaburi Province also
came under attack.
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The largest incursion was launched against ten vil-
lages near Aranyaprathet on Wednesday. Large numbers of Thai
reportedly fled or were evacuated from the combat areas. Heavy
fighting is continuing; casualty figures are not yet available.
Cambodian aggressiveness is probably linked to terri-
tories c aims and to anger over Thai support for Cambodian re-
sistance forces.
hus far, however, the Cambodians have been unwilling
even to reveal their basic demands. The recent attacks could be
a Cambodian effort to strengthen their position before engaging
in negotiations, but there are as yet no indications that the
Cambodians are ready to ease their aggressive border policies.
CHINA - WEST GERMANY: Trade
I The Chinese have used the recent visits to
Peking of several West German politicians and defense-related
individuals to emphasize their desire for increased trade and
technological exchange with Western Europe, particularly West
Germany. During the visits, the Chinese have also played up
their support for unified West European opposition to the USSR.
The businessmen and scientists accompanying West Ger-
man Foreign Minister Genscher gave his visit last month a strong
economic slant. The Chinese probably were interested in promot-
ing greater trade, but no major deals were concluded, nor were
the Chinese willing to abandon their conservative policy on
foreign loans, which restricts the potential for trade expan-
sion.
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I Fang 1, the de facto head of the Chinese
Academy of Sciences, was one of the top officials who met with
Genscher, which underlines China's interest in widening scien-
Shortly before Genscher's visit, the Chinese played
host to Manfred Woerner, the Chairman of the Bundestag's de-
fense committee, and welcomed a retired Luftwaffe inspector gen-
eral-
Both Genscher and Woerner were treated to standard
Chinese criticism of detente and the USSR. To both men, the
Chinese advocated their "united front" of Western Europe, Japan,
China, and the US. In his talks with Woerner, Teng repeated
the now-standard Chinese advice that Western Europe increase
its unity and become more self-reliant militarily.
Teng also stressed the importance of preserving West-
ern Europe's security ties with the US. Emphasizing that the
US - West European alliance must be one of equals, however,
Teng advised that Western Europe not allow itself to be used
as a "card" in the contest with Moscow, thus applying the same
image that Peking had earlier used in references to its own re-
lationship with the US. The Chinese also criticized the portions
of PRM-10 dealing with West Germany.
I This somewhat inconsistent approach probably reflects
Peking s concern and calculation about trends in US-Soviet re-
lations and US attitudes toward Western Europe. Teng may fear
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that further movement toward US-Soviet accommodation -for ex-
ample, on SALT--could cause the US to devalue the immediate use-
fulness of closer relations with China. The Chinese also hope
that the US will not appear to diminish its support for the
security of Western Europe.
The Chinese did not succeed in deterring their West
erman guests from again endorsing a detente policy. Both Gen-
scher and Woerner made clear Bonn's intention to maintain a
policy of detente and Ostpolitik. Criticism of the West German
visits to China in the Soviet press, however, indicate that
the military-technological aspects of Pekin 's relations with
Bonn have struck a tender nerve in Moscow,
I //Lebanon's General Khuri told the US Ambassa-
dor yesterday t at "some problems" remain in negotiations with
the Palestinians over withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Presi-
dent Sarkis and Foreign Minister Butrus are planning a trip to
Damascus tomorrow, presumably to discuss the situation and urge
President Asad to apply additional pressure to the Palestinians.
25X1
USSR - West Europe
The principal West European Communist parties made
no of or to narrow the gap between themselves and the Soviets
in their presentations at the Bolshevik revolution anniversary
festivities in Moscow.
Italian party leader Berlinguer, in a short speech
that met little applause, said his party wanted to create a
"new socialist society" that guaranteed a "nonideological state"
characterized by political pluralism and individual and collec-
tive liberties. French delegation chief Laurent--filling in for
party chief Marchais, whose absence was designed to impress the
French electorate with the party's independence of Moscow--
followed the party's now standard line of "Communism under
French colors."
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The most dramatic development was the Soviet refusal
to perms Spanish leader Carrillo to speak.. Carrillo submitted
his speech for translation and may have deliberately provoked
the Soviets in order to underscore his party's independence
as important Spanish municipal elections approach. The Spanish
Communists' domestic popularity received a boost last summer
when Moscow attacked Carrillo for his outspoken book Eurocommu-
nism
that
and State. Carrillo told reporters in
he had intended to present his party's
Moscow yesterday
positions "whether
they
like them here or not."
25X1
//The UN General Assembly last night endorsed a
resolution condemning the hijacking of airliners and calling
upon all countries to ratify three conventions on aerial piracy.
The resolution, which on Tuesday was adopted by acclamation in
the Special Political Committee, calls for nations to improve
security arrangements at airports and act toward eliminating
the threat of extortion by air pirates. A spokesman for the
International Federation of Airline Pilots Assations said that
the federation's threatened 48-hour walk out would now be "held
in abeyance."//
/While several amendments sponsored by Third
World nations altered the tone of the measure proposed by
several Western nations, the passage of the resolution under-
scores the growing trend toward cooperation against terrorism.
Fundamental obstacles, however, remain. Thus, despite West
German attempts to bring the issue to a formal vote, action on
a draft convention on the taking of hostages, scheduled to be
debated in three weeks, will probably be postponed.//
/The tenure of the ad hoc committee dealing with
the ,osta a question _is likely to be extended for another year.
25X1
Portugal
I Prime minister Snares' minority Socialist government
yesterday presented its 1978 budget, projecting increases of
43 percent in tax collections and 30 percent in spending. With
tax receipts at $3.3 billion and expenditures at $5.6 billion,
the deficit would be up 14 percent in nominal terms from this
25X1
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 Approve
year. After allowance is made for Portugal's rapid inflation,
however, the budget calls for little change in spending from
1977 and a reduced deficit. Hence the budget is characterized as
austere. Portuguese deficit spending, however, typically exceeds
budgeted levels. The proposed budget faces a fight in Portugal's
National Assembly. 25X1
25X1 The government has set 12 and 19 March as the dates
tor next year's legislative election. According to the consti-
tution, the two rounds of the election must be held by the end
of March 1978. The dates were probably selected in order to
increase the possibility of good weather--which encourages a
larger turnout by supporters of the government--and to av
the Easter vacation at the end of March. 25X1
25X1
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