NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030400010032-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 14, 2006
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: November 2, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Wednesday 2 November 1977 CG NIDC 77/254C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
r
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
Itsecurit wassItlcationl
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday, 2 November 1977.
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The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
EASTERN EUROPE: Helicopter Engine
WEST AFRICA: Security Meeting
EAST GERMANY: Borrowing
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EASTERN EUROPE: Helicopter Engine
Poland and Romania have expressed interest in ac-
quiring the US-made Allison turboshaft helicopter engine. Po-
land is seeking a License to manufacture it, and Romania wants
to buy three to five engines for a prototype Light utility
helicopter. The US engine performs significantly better than
engines now available in the USSR or Eastern Europe, and it
probably represents Light-weight technology and production
methods that the Soviets have not yet duplicated. The gas gen-
erator section of the engine could also be used as the core
for a small cruise missile engine.
I
Compared with the Soviet-designed engines now avail-
able in Eastern Europe, the Allison engine performs signifi-
cantly better, is lighter, consumes less fuel, and can operate
longer between overhauls.
I If the Romanian helicopter design is successful, Ro-
mania may try to purchase a large number of engines or acquire
a production license. Sale of the Allison engine is exempt from
export controls because of the engine's small size, although
granting a production license that transfers technology would
require US Government approval.
1 The Soviets have long been interested in the engine
An East European production license
could, however, give t e Soviets access to these production
techniques and metallurgical processes.
The gas generator section of the engine, which can
be separated from the power turbine and gearbox, has size and
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output characteristics making it adaptable as the core for a
small cruise missile engine similar to the one used in the US
Tomahawk. This technology could give the Soviets a two- to
three-year mp in producing a higher quality cruise missile
engine. 25X1
//Selected French airborne and military trans-
port units are making contingency plans for a possible operation
to rescue French hostages held in Algeria or Western Sahara by
Algerian-backed PoZisario guerrillas in case diplomatic efforts
fail. France may also have sent some reconnaissance and combat
aircraft, and possibly a small commando team, to Mauritania to
increase French intelligence collection in the area and to put
pressure on Algeria to intercede with the guerrillas. Paris
clearly hopes to avoid further military action but wants to be
prepared for any contingency. Although France has the ability
to intervene, French military planners recognize that a rescue
operation would be complicated and hazardous.//
the French Government decided to take a number of military
steps in response to the capture early last week of two more
French technicians working in Mauritania--at least the seventh
and eighth French citizens taken by the Polisario guerrillas to
camps in Western Sahara or Algeria. The government's initial
steps apparently were to place several airborne and military
transport units on alert and to increase diplomatic efforts to
have the hostages released.//
/The US defense attache in Paris reports that,
as o Mon ay, the alert status of the intervention forces had
been reduced to a standby :Level while contingency planning con-
tinued. Elements of an infantry division and an airborne divi-
sion are now apparently on standby.//
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small team of commandos from the renc it o ne on
may have been sent to Mauritania, probably to seek better in-
telligence on the activities of the guerrillas and the location DIA
of the hostages. the French 25X1
have also sent a squadron of Jaguar ground-attack aircraft and
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some Atlantic reconnaissance planes to Nouadhibou airfield near
the Mauritanian - Western Sahara border.
We cannot confirm all aspects of these reports, but
the US Em assy in Nouakchott has noted an increase in French
reconnaissance flights since last week.
//Despite this military activity, it appears un-
likely that he French intend to carry out a military rescue
operation soon. Uncertainty about the exact location of the
hostages, Algerian diplomatic demarches against any French mil-
itary intervention, and France's loss of the element of sur-
prise argue strongly against such a move in the near future.//
//Should current diplomatic efforts fail, however,
the French may be obliged to take some kind of military action
as a last resort. If France is willing to accept the consider-
able political and military risks, it has the capability to
move highly trained commando forces quickly from France to
Western Sahara or Algeria.//
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WEST AFRICA: Security Meeting
Representatives of seven West African nations will
meet in Upper Volta next week to pursue the idea of a regional
security aZZiance. Defense and foreign affairs representatives
will attempt to resolve some of the problems that may prevent
the nascent aZZiance from developing an effective mutual de-
fense force.
The six countries of CEAO--the French-speaking West
African Economic Community, made up of Senegal, Ivory Coast,
Niger, Mali, Mauritania, and Upper Volta--agreed in principle
in June to a "nonaggression and assistance pact" that would be
open to like-minded states. Togo soon indicated its willingness
to adhere; along with most CEAO members, Togo has a pro-Western,
anti-Communist outlook.
The more conservative leaders of the CEAO countries,
particularly Senegalese President Senghor and Ivory Coast Presi-
dent Houphouet-Boigny, have been noticeably concerned about
security since the Soviet- and Cuban-supported Popular Move-
ment government came to power in Angola last year. They believe
the Soviets will probe for other opportunities to expand their
influence in Africa.
At the meeting next week, a number of unresolved
policy questions about the mission and operation of a mutual
defense organization will be addressed.
The organization's executive officer, Lt. Col. Joseph
Tavares of Senegal, has been traveling throughout the region to
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ascertain each government's attitude toward the pact. Tavares
is to move in December to Ivory Coast, which is to provide the
organization's headquarters.
I Ivory Coast, the CEAO country best able to pay for
increase defense measures, recently ordered six French Alpha
Jets with an option to buy six more. The French also have agreed
to station a squadron of French-piloted Jaguar aircraft in Ivory
Coast prior to the delivery of the Alpha Jets in 1980. The
ground-attack Jaguars, as well as two US C-130 transports Ivory
Coast has expressed an interest in buying, could play an impor-
tant role in the regional defense organization.
The embryonic organization has many problems to re-
solve, however, before it can be acknowledged as either a re-
gional collective security alliance or a military deterrent
force. These problems include the lack of consensus among the
members on the nature of potential threats, the lack of stan-
dardized military equipment and training, and the question of
whether enough members have the political will to nurse the
organization to maturity.
I Meanwhile, the pact will be politically useful to the
French-supported moderate states as a symbol of their mutual
resistance to Soviet-supported African radicals.
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EAST GERMANY: Borrowing
East Germany reportedly is seeking to borrow $200
m2 Zion on the Euromarket. If it is successful in obtaining
the Zoan, East Germany's total borrowing on the syndicated mar-
ket would increase to $750 million this year--an amount roughly
equal to the total the East Germans borrowed during the past
five years. The East Germans are apparently feeling the pinch
of another large trade deficit and rapidly mounting debt-service
obligations. Western bankers, however, do not seem serious Zy
concerned about East Germany's balance-of-payments situation
and appear willing to Zend to the East Germans on relatively
favorable terms.
A US bank is seeking underwriters for a six-year
$200 million syndicated general purpose loan for the East Ger-
man foreign trade bank, according to the US Embassy in East
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The loan would be the East Germans' fifth on the Euro-
market this year and the third by the foreign trade bank, which
earlier negotiated two $150 million loans. A foreign trade or-
ganization and the domestic trade bank also made their initial
entries into the Eurodollar market with $150 million and $100
million loans respectively. The East Germans may have used
these two organizations to circumvent legal or self-imposed
ceilings by Western banks on lending to an individual borrower.
Borrowing to cover large trade deficits has raised
East Germany's hard-currency debt from an estimated $2.1 bil-
lion at the end of 1973 to $4.9 billion at the end of last year.
Private borrowing from commercial banks accounted for roughly
two-thirds of the debt.
I heir need to import large amounts of grain because
of the bad harvest-this year could make it difficult for the
East Germans to cut their trade deficit with the developed West 25X1
much below last year's estimated $1.2 billion. This could raise
their hard-currency debt to $6 billion by the end of the year.
Most of the initial foreign reactions to the an-
nounced US withdrawal from the International Labor Organization
express regret and hope that the US will rejoin.
UN Secretary General Waldheim termed the move a "dis-
appointing" one and characterized it as a "retrogressive step
from the principle of collective responsibility and from the
goal of universality in UN bodies." ILO Director General Blan-
said the US action was "extremely
a French citizen
chard
,
,
drastic" and told a news conference
soon reconsider. He briefly outlined
coping with the budgetary impact of
pledged no "recriminations" against
who work for the ILO.
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that
he hoped the
US would
his
contingency
plan for
the
US withdrawal
and
the
900 or so US
citizens
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//Various British ILO representatives expressed
"deep regret and said they intended to urge action in the or-
ganization that would allow the US to rejoin.//
The International Confederation of Free Trade Unions,
stating that there is no alternative to the ILO, said it feared
the US action would only weaken the democratic forces in the
organization.
The Foreign Minister of Sierra Leone expressed "deep
disappointment" but reiterated the usual Third World view that
it is impossible to keep politics out of international organi-
zations. He added that the decision is a sign that the US does
not "really appreciate Third World attitudes" but said he hoped
that the US could return.
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Surinam Prime Minister Henck Arron's black-dominated
Nattona Party Combination won an impressive vote of confidence
in Monday's election, the first since independence from the
Netherlands two years ago. Arron's unexpectedly wide margin of
victory should assure a more unified government and the contin-
uation of close Surinam-US relations.
With most of the vote counted, Arron's four-party
coalition won 24 of the 39 seats in the unicameral parliament,
an increase of two seats over the previous election, in 1973.
A predominantly East Indian opposition coalition took the re-
maining 15 seats, shutting out all other parties, including
three leftist groups.
In gaining the victory, the Prime Minister's coali-
tion overcame the internal dissension that followed a recent
bribery scandal involving a government minister. Arron also
seems to have capitalized on what appeared to be a clumsy last-
ditch effort by the opposition to implicate him in illegal fi-
nancial activities.
I lArron is almost certain to head Surinam's new govern-
ment. We do not foresee substantial changes in the cabinet or
a shift in national policy. Surinam-US relations were not an
election issue, and local US interests, now concentrated in
the bauxite industry, should not be affected.
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