NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030300010040-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 7, 2006
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: September 2, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

IF AAW Amir Amir Adw AAV AMV AAV Adw Air AV
1
ApprdWdTl6kGRelease 2007/03/07 :
IA-RDP79T00975A0303000V0O40-
p ~ecret
(Security Classification) 0
25X1
CONTROL NO. _[:::::= 0
1
0
25X1
0
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities: 0
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday September 2, 1977 CG NIDC 77-205C 0
0
20
1
1
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
t ecurity uiassmcatlon)
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A03030001 -
0
0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010040-0
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010040-0
 Approved F
National Intell1he nce Dail Cable for Friday, 2 September 1977
NID Cable is or e purpose o informing
ETHIOPIA-SOMALIA: Situation Report
ISRAEL: Settlement Policy
USSR: Human Rights Propaganda
Page 1
Page 4
Page 6
Page 7
PAKISTAN: Elections
GUYANA: More Problems
South Africa
Ecuador
Argentina
Indonesia
Page 12
Page 13
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T0097AA030300010040-0
 Approved For
Pravda commentator Yuriy Zhukov, citing reported
Pentagon intentions to convert the FB-111 bomber into a stra-
tegic cruise missile carrier, yesterday accused the US of pay-
ing "Zip service" to arms control while actually preparing for
a new arms race. The prominent journalist's assertion, as re-
ported in a Tass summary, stands in contrast to Soviet Presi-
dent Brezhnev's somewhat hopeful remarks of 16 August and seems
to express one view among an apparent number of Soviet views
over the prospects for accommodation with the US.
L In his speech Brezhnev had commented on certain as-
pects of President Carter's address on US-Soviet relations in
Charleston, and noted that "compared with previous moves by the
US administration, these statements sound positive." Zhukov,
however, warned that "one must not be lulled by reassuring
speeches of those who pay lip service to ending the arms race
while preparing on the sly to step it up." Zhukov's statement
is the most striking departure from the note Brezhnev struck
in August and may well reflect the views of some in Moscow who
are especially suspicious of the motives underlying US policy.
I I Over the last two months Soviet media have been in-
ense y critical of the US, and particularly of the decision
on the neutron bomb. At the same time, some authoritative com-
mentators have made occasional references to the "positive"
changes taking place in the US administration--a theme which
Brezhnev chose to amplify.
The more optimistic Soviet comments have focused on
the need for "restraint and patience" and seem to be holding
out hope that the US-Soviet relationship can. be improved. The
more negative assessments, such as Zhukov's, have stressed the
influence on US policy of alleged "anti-detente forces" centered
in the Pentagon and the "military-industrial complex." I
Approved F4
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010040-0
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010040-0
 Approved For Rel
ETHIOPIA-SOMALIA: Situation Report
The new Somali attack on Jijiga apparently began
Tuesday with artillery fire and air strikes re ortedZ ol-
lowed'by Somali ground attacks.
The new attack is the third, and possibly the fourth,
Somali thrust in the past three weeks on Ethiopian strongholds
in the area. The previous attacks were small-scale probing
operations to test Ethiopian defenses at Dire Dawa, Jijiga,
and possibly Harar.
It is not yet clear whether the latest attack on
Jijiga is merely another probing effort or the beginning of a
drive to capture the town. Although Jijiga is more heavily de-
fended than Harar or Dire Dawa, it is located on lower ground
and is more vulnerable to armored attacks.
25X1
The Somalis will have to use their IL-28s cautiously.
Their air force has not fared well against Ethiopia's F-5
fighters and has already lost several MIGs,
In southern Ethiopia, the government garrison at 25X1
Filtu, reinforced by part of a militia brigade, apparently
drove back the Somali force that had advanced toward the t wn
earlier this week.
Somali President Siad has warned the Soviets not to
strengthen Ethiopia at Somalia's expense. The build-up of so-
viet weapons in Ethiopia may be reaching the point at which
Siad will feel a more explicit stand.
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975A040300010040-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010040-0
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010040-0
 Approved For Rel
ISRAEL: Settlement Policy
I /Israeli Foreign Minister Dayan told the US
Ambassador on Wednesday that the government wiZZ approve es-
tablishment of six to eight new settlements in the occupied
Approved For R4Iease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30Pi00010040-0
 Approved For
territories over the next few months. He said that there would
be no new settlement activity before his trip to Washington
this month. Dayan did not specify the sites of the proposed
settlements.//
//Dayan emphasized that the Begin government
had decided to establish the new settlements on its own initi-
ative and was not implementing decisions made in principle by
the preceding Labor cabinet.//
//The new settlements would consist of civilian
settler groups of 30 to 40 families and would be established
within existing army base areas. According to Da an no addi-
tional land would be involved.
USSR: Human Rights Propaganda
Soviet propaganda assailing the US on human rights-
related hemes appears to be picking up after a relative ZuZZ
during the summer; the Soviets possibly have an eye on the com-
ing CSCE conference in Belgrade and the convening of the UN
General Assembly.
Tass yesterday strongly challenged charges made at
the World Psychiatric Conference in Honolulu regarding Soviet
abuse of psychiatry for political purposes. Tass did not
mention the resolution passed at the meeting condemning the
Soviet practice of incarcerating dissidents in mental hospitals,
but alleged that the organizers of the Honolulu conference were
in league with "opponents of detente in the US" in furthering
an anti-Soviet slander campaign. Tass pointed to recent pub-
licity in the West about reports of CIA-funded experiments
"with the aim of manipulating the human mind."
Soviet dissidents and some exiles predictably at-
tempted to focus the conference's attention on Soviet abuses.
One appeal sent to Honolulu on behalf of political prisoners
held in Soviet psychiatric institutions was signed by 34 dissi-
dents, including Andrey Sakharov.
25X1
25X1
Approved For Pelease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AP30300010040-0
 Approved For
In a separate message, the dissident Committee for
the Investigation of the Use of Psychiatry for Political Ends,
a year-old offshoot of the group that monitors the USSR's im-
plementation of the Helsinki accords, asked the Honolulu meet-
ing to come out in support of Feliks Serebrov, a member of
the committee who was arrested last week. Several exiled Soviet
dissidents with firsthand knowledge of Soviet psychiatric abuse
also reportedly testified at the meeting.
The same issue of the weekly Literary Gazette that on
e nes ay resurrected earlier charges of espionage against
Los Angeles Times correspondent Robert Toth also attacked
the "continued diversionary activity" of the US Congressional
CSCE Committee. The weekly complained that the committee was
mailing unsolicited, provocative letters to Soviet individuals
and institutions, and questioned the international legality of
such a method of "distributing propaganda." Pravda yesterday
published a general commentary questioning US sincerity on the
issue of human rights. The daily focused on alleged US reluc-
tance to become party to international agreements on human
rights, and cited in particular US failure to sign the UN con-
vention on the abolition of racial discrimination.
Approved Fora Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00971AO30300010040-0
 Approved For
25X1 Pakistani Chief Martial Law Administrator General Zia
may be bending to pressures to delay elections, prosecute for-
mer Prime Minister Bhutto, and create a constitutional political
role for the military.
Approved ForiRelease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00915AO30300010040-0
 Approved Fo
Zia has not announced any change in plans to hold an
election on 18 October and then relinquish
ower to
i
ili
p
c
v
ans,
but yesterday at a press conference he raised, the possibility
that the election might be delayed for a few days or even a few
weeks if necessary. He also urged that the constitution be
changed to give the military a role in political crises be-
cause, he said, the politicians alone cannot guarantee the in-
tegrity of the country.
Zia has been under pressure for some time from other
senior military officers to take such steps
but h
s
f
,
a
so
ar re-
sisted. He apparently felt that action against Bhutto would be
regarded as a sign of partiality and lead to Bhutto's boycotting
the election or to his followers taking to the streets.
I I I 'he Pakistan National Alliance--which expects to de-
teat Bhutto in the election--had also sought to avoid a situa-
tion that could upset election plans. On Tuesday, however, party
leaders changed tactics, and demanded Bhutto's prosecution--on
charges which could include murder--even if the election had to
be delayed. The Alliance may now believe that differences among
the leaders of Bhutto's party preclude an effective election
boycott, and that Bhutto can no longer push his followers into
serious civil disorders.
Zia cracked down on banned political activities--
such as demonstrations--last month, and Bhutto has not challenged
the campaign ground rules since. He and other party leaders have,
however, threatened that serious violence would erupt if "un-
fair" t
i
act
cs were used against their party.
Approvedi For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00g75A030300010040-0
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010040-0
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010040-0
 Approved For R$
//A major sugar strike called by Guyanese Prime
2n-&s er^ Burn ham's Marxist political archenemy, Cheddi Jagan,
has added to an already existing economic crisis and poses the
most serious challenge to Burnham in years? Jagan, probably
counseled by the Soviets and possibly the Cubans, hopes to
force the Prime Minister to accede to his call for a national
front government. Unless Burnham can work out a scheme that
will assure that he remains the dominant poZiticaZ figure, he
is unlikely to bring Jagan into the government and is increas-
ingly likely to use force to try to break the strike.//
I I The sugar workers have legitimate economic demands,
but the strike by the powerful labor arm of Jagan's People's
Progressive Party--which has idled almost all the sugar work-
ers--is primarily a well-timed political move. By first calling
for a national front government on the eve of the governing
party's congress two weeks ago, Jagan sought to encourage the
left-wing of the party to bring pressure on the Prime Minister.
After Burnham rejected the demand, Jagan called out the sugar
workers.
//The face-off, with Jagan's East Indian party and
sugar workers on one side, and Burnham's black Peoples National
Congress on the other, is an old one. Jagan's challenge now is
more formidable, however, because of Guyana's economic crisis
has already generated significant problems for Burnham in his
labor stronghold among the Afro-Guyanese bauxite workers. The
autumn sugar crop is also sorely needed to avoid a tightening
foreign exchange squeeze. Burnham's difficulties are further
complicated by his continuing health problems and a reduced
work schedule stemming from his heart attack in January.//
//Several observers attribute Jagan's more adroit
political performance over the past year to good advice from
Soviet Embassy officials--the USSR has long backed the orthodox
Marxist, a fact that has complicated their attempts to improve
relations with Burnham. Foreign Minister Wills believes that
the Cubans, following Burnham's meeting with President Castro
in July, argued against a strike at this time but were over-
ruled by the Soviets and by Jagan's radical wife.//
Approved For P,,elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO
 Approved For Ro
//We doubt that the Cubans have played much of a
positive role. Rather, they appear to be continuing the shrewd
tactics they employed during Burnham's visit--when Castro al-
lowed Vice President for Foreign Affairs Rodriguez to argue the 25X1
Moscow line while he promised that Cuba would not take sides in
Guyanese politics.//
25X1
i
J Black student boycotts are causing problems for the
Sou African government in several areas besides Soweto,
where the government is in the process of taking over control
of the secondary school system. Soweto currently is quiet, but
students in Atteridgeville, a large black township near Pretoria,
resumed a well-organized boycott last week.
A student leader told a US Embassy officer that the
boycott would continue until students detained in previous
disturbances are released. This has been a major issue in So-
weto also, and residents of Atteridgeville are worried that
the government might move to take over their schools as well.
The boycott spread to East London on the southeastern
coast ear ier this week, and to Bloemfontein, the provincial
capital of Orange Free State, yesterday. Police used force to
break up large crowds of stone-throwing students in the black
townships around Bloemfontein, which had seen little violence
since the student disturbances began over a year ago.
Approved For
 ApprovediFor Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00974AO30300010040-0
I The Ecuadorean Government announced yesterday that
on Wednesday it had smashed a "rebellion" designed to side-
track its plan to return the country to civilian rule next year.
The "rebellion" actually was merely a meeting of members of
several political movements, primarily the National Velasquista
Federation, the party of five-time President Jose Maria Velasco
Ibarra, who was deposed by the military in 1972.
The government's overreaction may have been intended
as a warning to bona fide coup plotters who might plan to take
advantagpe of President Poveda's absence when he attends the
Panama Canal treaty signing ceremony in Washington next week.
The release yesterday of all those arrested in connection with
the meeting is further evidence that the government does not
view the Velasquistas as a serious threat.
Although the Velasquistas have opposed some aspects
ot the military government's normalization program, there is
no evidence that they have any significant support among high-
ranking military officers, which would be indispensable in any
attempt to thwart the government's plans.
Argentina
Argentina's decision Wednesday to cancel its partici-
pation-an UNITAS XVIII, a joint naval exercise with the US,
reflects official dismay over US security assistance and human
rights policies. The Argentines are particularly concerned
about the provisions of the Humphrey-Kennedy amendment halting
all military cooperation after 30 September 1978 and the condi-
tions imposed on the prospective purchase of helicopters.
Domestic political considerations also affected the
decision on UNITAS. Military hardliners have severely criticized
President Videla for being too accommodating to recent US offi-
cial visitors. The hardliners apparently seized on the UNITAS-
US arms policy issue to raise the question of the President's
prestige. The timing of the announcement probably is deliberately
related to Videla's trip to the US next week. Cancellation after
the visit would have been viewed as a sign that the trip was a
failure. 25X1
Approved Fc
 Approved For
Indonesian Foreign Minister Adam Malik has announced
his resignation after 11 years in office, and will officially
step down after returning from the UN General Assembly. There
are reports that he is leaving because of policy disagreements
with senior military officials. President Suharto will probably
wait at least until the national assembly convenes in October
before appointing a permanent successor.
Minister of Defense Pangabbean may take over the
Foreign Ministry post in the interim. He has served as acting
Foreign Minister in Malik's absence.
he does not appoint a Moslem as Foreign Minister.
-CIA, DIA, NSA-
Another strong contender is the Ambassador to the US,
and former Ambassador to the UK, Rusmin Nurjadin. US and British
officials have given him high marks for his frankness and abil-
ity, but he lacks political prominence. Nurjadin, however, is
a Moslem and is untainted by corruption, and these factors may
be important to Suharto as he tries to placate segments of In-
donesian society who are calling for greater Moslem representa-
tion and less corruption in the government. Suharto would also
damage relations with Indonesia's fellow Islamic countries if
Approved F
 1
1
1
1
1
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010040-0
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
,AF
0 0
0 Top Secret 0
(Security L~apsr c~a ion ?r Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30300010040-0
0 'Amw 'Aw 'Aw 'Aw 'Aw Amr Aw Aw Aw Aj