NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030200010093-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 2, 2006
• Sequence Number: 93
• Publication Date: July 28, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010093-3
Next 3 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010093-3
 PV AAW AAW AAW AEF AAW AAW AA1V' AV AV Adrl
1
1
1
1
1
1
CIA-RDP79T00975A03020ebQ99Sg
cret 2 '_ 99
(Security Classification)
CONTROL NO. J
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
Thursday July 28, 1977 CG NIDC 77-174C
w
State Dept. review
completed
ApprR G
Release2
TO:
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
1
F_
2
3
4
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
1
1
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
REMARKS:
FROM: NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE NO.
DATE
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
v
Top Secret
Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0318v80 S fjcation) 25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010093-3
Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010093-3
 Approved For
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Thursday, July 28, 1977.
25X1
25X1 e NID Cable is tor e purpose
senior c als.
ANGOLA-PORTUGAL: Repatriation
GUINEA: Relations with West
WEST GERMANY: Neutron Controversy
PORTUGAL - ARAB STATES: Boycott
Page 4
Page 4
Page 6
Page 7
POLAND: Trade Deficit :Reduced
Page 10
25X1
Approved F4 Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T0097
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010093-3
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010093-3
 Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T009715A030200010093-3
ANGOLA-PORTUGAL: Repatriation
The Angolan and Portuguese governments have approved
a plan allowing Angolan refugees now living in Portugal to re-
turn home "in the shortest possible time." The repatriation
agreement might be the first step in a more general Angolan
opening to the West.
I More than 500,000 refugees flooded into Portugal
from Angola during the 1975 civil war, and a sizable number
reportedly is anxious to return if adequate assurances can be
given for their material well-being and safety. Both govern-
ments plan to ask the UN High Commissioner for Refugees for
technical and financial aid to carry out the repatriation
project.
I According to press reports, Portuguese officials
also announced this week that 50 Portuguese who had been im-
prisoned in Angola will be released to return to Lisbon next
week. A number of Portuguese had been arrested following the
abortive revolt against Angolan President Neto's government
last May.
Both Neto and Portuguese President Eanes have re-
cen y gone on record in favor of a rapid improvement in bi-
lateral relations leading to their eventual normalization. Neto
believes that Western technological and financial assistance
could play an important role in improving Angola's serious
economic situation. F77 I
President Sekou Toure appears to be seriously in-
terested to expanding Guinea's relations with the West. This
policy shift is probably based on economic needs, but dissatis-
faction over Guinea's relationship with the USSR also plays a
Approved F
 Approved For R Iease 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0 0200010093-3 25X1
part. There have been no further signs, however, that Soviet
naval reconnaissance aircraft will be denied access to Conakry
since Prime Minister Beavogui told US officials in Zate June
that Toure had forbidden the Soviets from basing the planes
there.
I uIn a recent speech, Toure appealed to all Guinean
exiles to return home, offering them such enticements as tax
concessions and freedom to engage in private enterprise in some
sectors of the economy. In the same address, he indicated that
his government had moderated its hostility against Israel and
would no longer "confuse" the Israeli government with "certain
Zionist elements."
I I Many Guineans reportedly view the exile amnesty and
mo era a line on Israel as manifestations of Guinea's "new
realism." Toure's references to the private sector are his
first in many years, and government sources foresee further
moves toward greater flexibility within the still authoritar-
ian framework of Toure's political party. Few of the thousands
of Guinean exiles are likely to return, however.
I Guinea's interest in expanding relations with the
es is very likely rooted in the country's worsening economic
problems. There is strong domestic pressure for increased im-
ports of western consumer goods, and Guinea is seeking more
PL-480 food aid from the US.
For the first time in many years Guinea is encouraging
increased dealings with France. Four private French economic
delegations were in Guinea in April, and in March a French war-
ship visited Conakry for the first time since Guinea became in-
dependent.
Toure almost certainly will maintain his relatively
good relations with the USSR. There has been no further indica-
tion that Soviet naval reconnaissance aircraft will be forbid-
den to land at Conakry, and Soviet naval warships continue to
use anchorages near the port.
//The government is unhappy, however, over some
aspects of Soviet assistance. Guinean officials say the Soviets
are not servicing the civil aircraft they supplied Guinea--only
one aircraft is now operating--and are demanding hard currency
Approved For
 Approved For
for overhauling them in the USSR. Perhaps as an expression of
pique, Guinea last month seized a Soviet fishing trawler.//
WEST GERMANY: Neutron Controversy
The public debate in West Germany over the possibil-
ity that the neutron weapon will be sent to NATO forces there
continues to grow despite the Schmidt government's effort to
dampen the controversy.
There were minor demonstrations protesting the new
war ea a the US consulates in Dusseldorf and Frankfurt during
the past week. Another demonstration is planned at the US con-
sulate in Dusseldorf today, and one is to take place in front
of the US embassy in Bonn on August 6.
Q Egon Bahr, the business manager of the Social Demo-
cratic Party who triggered the controversy with his remarks
about the new warhead, defended his position by assertions
Monday that the neutron weapon was "incompatible with human
rights." Bahr's remarks reflect those of many left-wing party
members who oppose placing the weapons in Europe on moral or
humanitarian grounds, but his statement is also a calculated
move to suggest that opposition Christian Democrats who have
endorsed the neutron weapon lack a concern for human rights.
L Since last spring, Bahr has been looking for a for-
MIN to counter the opposition leaders who have played Presi-
dent Carter's human rights policy against the Social Democrats.
Despite Bahr's implications, some Christian Democratic leaders
have reservations of their own about deployment of the neutron
warhead. Bahr's remarks, nevertheless, will make it more diffi-
cult for the government to formulate a balanced policy.
The widely circulated magazine Der Spiegel earlier
is wee asserted that Bonn had been caught by surprise and
that the new weapon would undermine Chancellor Schmidt's ef-
forts to restore momentum to the policy of improving relations
with the Soviets and East Europeans. Spiegel's accusations may
gain credibility in some political quarters; General Wust, the
Bundeswehr's chief of staff, has complained publicly that the
weapon was not discussed in NATO's nuclear planning group.
Approved For
 Approved For
I IThe neutron 'warhead, in fact, was presented as part
o: a series of US proposals for modernizing tactical nuclear
weapons in Western Europe but never was the focus of Allied
discussions. Foreign Minister Genscher and Defense Minister
Leber emphasized in separate interviews last weekend that the
decision to station the weapon in Western Europe would not be
taken until NATO has had a chance to review the US proposals.
To protect the government against accusations like
General Wust's, Leber reiterated Schmidt's recent assurance
that US officials had :kept their West German counterparts in-
formed about the development of the neutron weapon over the
past two years. Schmidt, for his part, seems to have reserva-
tions about deployment of the new weapon because he believes
that its potential contribution to the Alliance's deterrent is
still an open question. He has asserted that the neutron war-
head poses serious "strategic and psychological problems" for
West Germany and NATO.
PORTUGAL - ARAB STATES: Boycott
//Arab League Secretary General Riyad re-
portedly in,orme the Portuguese charge in Cairo on Tuesday
that the Arab states are planning to impose an economic boycott
on Portugal in retaliation for the Portuguese decision in May
to recognize Israel. The Arabs apparently hope to deter other
countries that might be considering establishing relations
with Israel. The boycott, which includes oil, is unlikely to
hurt Portugal economically.//
I //Saudi Arabia reportedly plans to introduce
a resolution to impose the boycott against Portugal at the Arab
League Council meeting in September. Consultations have already
begun in Cairo among the Egyptian foreign minister and ambassa-
dors of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates,
and Algeria.//
//The Arab League official. told the Portu-
guese charge 'that the Arab move was an effort to discourage
African states, such as Senegal and the Ivory Coast, from re-
establishing relations with Israel and also to deter Spain from
establishing them. The Arab official commented that he believed
that the Saudi initiative was also an effort to remind the US
Approved Fclr Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T0097fA030200010093-3
 Approved For
that the Arabs would not hesitate to use their economic lever-
age if there were no progress in the Middle East peace negotia-
tions.//
I I The Arabs apparently singled out Portugal as a target
Decause rtugal recognized Israel at a time when the Arabs be-
lieve they are succeeding in isolating Israel diplomatically.
Moreover, the Portuguese islands of the Azores have been used
to refuel US aircraft carrying supplies to Israel during past
Middle East conflicts.
I lAt the same time the Arabs must also be aware that
their boycott is not likely to have an adverse economic impact
on Portugal. The merchandise trade between the Arab countries
and Portugal is small. Portugal imports less than 6 million
metric tons of crude oil annually. Although over 60 percent of
this amount comes from the Arabs, this small quantity could be
obtained from alternate sources. Iran already provides about
20 percent of the Portuguese oil imports and almost certainly 25X1
would be willing to increase its share. In addition, Portugal
could obtain refined products from West European countries
that have excess refining capacity.
Approved Fqr Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T009754030200010093-3
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010093-3
Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010093-3
 Approved For R (ease 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975A 30200010093-3 25X1
tL_ Poland reports it has cut its hard-currency deficit
by third in the first half of 1977. The Poles, however,
failed to meet their export plan as Western economic growth
continued to falter. Even if Poland is able substantially to
reduce the deficit for the entire year, it is expected to en-
counter difficulties in raising the necessary financing and
may have to reschedule part of its debt.
L A Polish official has told the US embassy in Warsaw
that trade results in the first six months of 1977 were "not
as bad as expected." He reported that the reduction in Poland's
hard-currency deficit resulted from a 13 percent boost in ex-
ports and a 5 percent cut in imports. We cannot confirm these
figures because Poland stopped publishing adequate trade sta-
tistics in January.
L Polish leaders have expressed concern that trade with
the West, particularly exports, has been doing poorly. Poland
had hoped to boost real exports 20 percent in 1977 while hold-
ing imports near the 1976 level. Exports, however, have been
held down by continued sluggish Western economic growth, and
some of Poland's important exports--such as copper, zinc, hams,
and sugar--have been hit by declining prices. Terms of trade
have deteriorated because import prices have risen.
Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T009754030200010093-3
 Approved F
If the reported trade trend continues, Poland's hard-
currency'deficit this year would be at least $500 million below
the $3 billion recorded in 1976. Nonetheless, Poland's total
financing needs--to cover the deficit and to meet escalating
debt repayments--could approach $4 billion this year. More than
half of Poland's exports will be required in 1977 to service
the cumulative debt, which totaled $10.2 billion at the end
of 1976.
Poland is expecting problems in rolling over
its debt this year and would like US bank financial assistance.
Such assistance, however, probably would require higher inter-
est rates and stiffer terms. Warsaw
is expected to seek deferred payments on xim anc and West
European government-guaranteed credits later this year.
I I
Approved Fair Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T009715AO30200010093-3
 OV AV AW AV AV AV AIIMV AMF AV AV AV
Approved For Release 2007/03/06 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO30200010093-3
0 Top Secret
(Security Classification)
1
1
1
Top Secret
lease 2007/03/06 CIA-RDP79T00975A030200010093-3
(Security Classification)
a
0
0