NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030200010057-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2005
• Sequence Number: 57
• Publication Date: July 6, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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-RDP79T00975A0302 100 -3
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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 0
Wednesday July 6, 1977 CG NIDC 77-155C
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National Intelligence Dail Cable for Wednesdla , July 6, 1977
I e NN 1) Cable is tor a purpose o intorming
senior officials.
PAKISTAN: Post-coup Policies
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CHINA: Buying Australian Wheat
TURKEY: Forming A New Government
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PAKISTAN: Post-coup Policies
Pakistan is calm in the wake of the military coup.
enera -7 ]Pakistan
the chief of the army staff and now chief
martial Law administrator, announced yesterday that all poZi-
tical activities are banned, but reaffirmed that a new national
election would be held in October. He asked that political par-
ties cooperate in preparing for the election and promised that
the ban on political activity would be lifted beforehand. Zia
said that after the election the government would be turned
back to elected civilians.
I IThe martial law administration includes a military
council comprised of the chiefs of staff of the three services
and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Pakistan's pres-
ident, Fazal Elahi Chaudhry, remains the titular head of state,
theoretically receiving advice from the military council. He
is, in fact, a figurehead, as he was under former prime minis-
ter Bhutto.
The retention of Chaudhry as president and the an-
nouncement that the constitution has not been abrogated, al-
though certain articles have been suspended, give the new gov-
ernment a degree of legitimacy and are also aimed at preventing
difficulties regarding foreign recognition.
I IZia's pledge that his government would honor all agree-
s an promises by the Bhutto administration presumably means
that the controversial agreement with France for a nuclear re-
processing plant will go forward. In the relatively brief pe-
riod between now and the promised election, however, the mar-
tial law administration will have little time to devote to ma-
jor decisions on either foreign or domestic matters.
I I Serious opposition to the new government seems un-
likely to develop in the near future, if at all. The nation
has experienced military domination of the government for 13
of the past 19 years. The Pakistan People's Party--with its
founder, Bhutto, under detention--will be disorganized and with-
out a recognized national leader. Little resistance to the new
regime appears likely from Bhutto's opposition, the Pakistan
National Alliance, which has long been demanding an early elec-
tion under military and judicial supervision and the removal of
Bhutto from power.
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//Zia, 52, has been in the army since 1944. He is
a strong nationalist but is believed friendly to the US, he
he attended two army staff schools when he was a major.//
Rhodesian Prime Minister Smith faces mounting poli-
tical problems as his government attempts to deal with the lat-
est settlement effort and to continue the fight against the
guerrillas. Individually, most of the Latest developments are
not threatening, but taken together they add to the country's
unsettled political situation and provide a further stimulus
to declining white morale.
I IThe formation of a new right-wing opposition party
and the resignation of the ruling party chairman reflect long-
standing divisions within the white community. Smith's ability
to govern may be more seriously hampered, however, by differ-
ences that are reportedly growing between some of his politi-
cal and military advisers.
The announcement yesterday by 12 members of parlia-
ment who oppose concessions to the black population that they
are forming an opposition group--the Rhodesian Action Party--
formalizes a split that developed last March. At that time, the
12 legislators broke from the ruling Rhodesian Front and tried
unsuccessfully to block the government's legislative proposals
lifting some discriminatory measures against blacks. The new
party's platform rejects moves toward majority rule and sup-
ports a confederated political solution that it says would pro-
tect white political and economic power.
I lIt is not clear whether Des Frost, who resigned as
c airman of the Rhodesian Front last week and criticized Smith
for "tired and negative" leadership, will join the new party.
Frost, however, shares the hard-line views of the dissident
legislators and has opposed some of Smith's policies from with-
in the ruling party for many months.
The right-wing political figures apparently have de-
ci e to challenge Smith actively, but they may not be able to
attract much new support. Smith has asserted publicly that the
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ruling party will be healthier without Frost and suggested that
at least a dozen more party members should also resign. Several
local Rhodesian Front officials apparently have left the party
in the past few days.
Smith still has a majority in parliament, and he prob-
ably will try to avoid. calling an early general election. He
must gain the support of several independent black legislators,
however, to reach the two-thirds majority. necessary for any
amendments to Rhodesia's constitution.
Some of Rhodesia's military leaders are adding publicly
to the pressures on Smith. The army commander recently as-
serted that his troops were loyal to the nation and not to the
ruling party. He stated that the army would not accept disband-
ment as part of a negotiated settlement under any conditions.
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CHINA: Buying Australian Wheat
//Australia announced on Monday the sale of 3 miZ-
Zion tons of wheat to China. The deal is valued at about $310
million, making it the Largest single wheat contract ever made
by Australia. The purchase probably will keep grain handling
facilities at Chinese ports working at full capacity through
mid-1978.11
//Deliveries are to begin next month and be com-
pleted by August 1978. Most of the wheat will be from new crops,
and therefore cannot be delivered until after the end of this
year when harvesting is likely to be completed. The amount of
old wheat that Australia will be shipping this year will prob-
ably be less than a half million tons. This is about all the
Chinese can take in 1977 because grain-handling facilities at
Chinese ports are already scheduled for near-maximum use
through December.//
//The purchase from Australia follows closely a
3--million ton deal the Chinese made with Canada in late May.
Since November, China :has contracted for 11.5 million tons of
wheat--5.5 from Australia, 5.3 from Canada, and 0.7 from Argen-
tina. The total amount of grain to be delivered this year could
reach 7 million tons, 'which would be close to the 1973 record
of 7.6 million tons. An estimated 4.5 million tons are to be
delivered from January through July 1978.//
//The heavy Chinese wheat purchases this year are
the result of a mediocre harvest in 1976 and a spring drought
that affected this year's winter wheat harvest. Also, China is
probably taking advantage of low world prices to replenish
grain stocks that were drawn down in 1975 and 1976 as part of
an effort to combat its balance-of-payments problems.
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TURKEY: Forming A New Government
I Turkish President Koruturk has tasked former
prime minister Demirel with forming a new government after
Prime Minister Ecevit resigned on Sunday. Ecevit's resignation
came after Turkey's three major center-right parties combined
to topple his two-week-old minority government in its first
test of strength. DemireZ will face problems in forming a work-
ing majority in the fragmented National Assembly, and Turkey's
political and economic problems may continue for some time.
I Demirel, leader of the Justice Party, most likely
will try to reconstitute the conservative "national front" co-
alition he led for the two and a half years prior to Turkey's
recent parliamentary election. Three parties of that coalition--
Demirel's, the Islam-oriented National Salvation Party, and
the extreme right-wing Nationalist Action Party--now control
an outright majority in the lower house..
Negotiations, however, are expected to be prolonged
and is icult, and Demirel is by no means guaranteed success.
Nationalist Action leader Turkes seems amenable to cooperating
with Demirel, but Salvation Party leader Erbakan--who holds the
key to Demirel's chances--has served notice that he will exact
heavy concessions in return for cooperating.
Demirel, moreover, may not have his party solidly be-
hind him. One senior party member opposes dealing with Erbakan
on the latter's terms, while a group of other party members
apparently opposes cooperating with the Salvationist leader at
all because of Erbakan's general obstreperousness in the ear-
lier coalition.
Even if Demirel were to succeed in putting together
a national front government, it would be constrained by the
same internal contradictions that virtually paralyzed his
former cabinet, particularly as it sought to grapple with the
Cyprus problem and with relations with the US.
//In the meantime, Ecevit's government will
sray on =M-Caretaker capacity, but it will be unable to deal
firmly with such pressing concerns as the economy and civil
disorders. The political developments of recent days may in
fact worsen both problems. International bankers who hold the
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key to solving Turkey's severe balance-of-payments problems will
be reluctant to aid the nation so long as it lacks an effec-
If Demirel fails to form a government, Ecevit would
p:ro a y get a second chance. Political expediency might dic-
tate that. Ecevit would. try to come to terms with Erbakan, with
whom he was allied briefly in 1974. By then, however, pressures
from outside the narrow parliamentary world could force him to
consider the possibility of a "grand coalition" with Demirel.
This alternative would probably provide the best hope for po-
litical stability, but a grand coalition would require the
politicians to put country ahead of party--something they have
not done in recent years.
Spanish Prime Minister Adolfo Suarez chose the mem-
bers of the cabinet he announced Monday with an eye to dealing
with urgent economic and political problems and to strengthen-
ing his control over the military. Suarez again showed his
talent for maintaining continuity while preparing for poZiti-
cal reform by retaining six key ministers and adding 13 new
faces, most of whom worked under Franco but are reform-minded.
Most of the cabinet members belong to his Union for the Demo-
cratic Center, but some are independents and technocrats who
share his centrist political tendency. Suarez' minority govern-
ment does not have to be approved by the parliament, but the
Prime Minister could muster the 11 votes needed for approval
by a majority.
I I Suarez showed that he will emphasize solving econo-
mic problems by appointing new Economic Minister Enrique Fuentes
Quintana a deputy prime minister and economic czar. Francisco
Fernandez Ordonez, the new minister of finance, is a Social
Democrat who reportedly is trusted by the Socialists and favors
drastic tax reform to spread the country's wealth more equally.
I In an effort to reduce the military's political in-
fluence and to facilitate modernization of the armed forces,
Suarez created a defense ministry, which is to absorb the three
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present service ministries. He retained liberal General Manuel
Gutierrez Mellado as first deputy prime minister and made him
minister of defense.
To aid him in political matters, Suarez created a
deputy prime minister for political affairs and named his former
agriculture minister, Fernando Abril Matorell, to the post.
iFor handling the pressing problem of autonomy for the
Basque an Catalan regions, Suarez appointed Manuel Clavero
Arevalo, a liberal, as minister without portfolio and assistant
minister for the regions.
25X1 To aid him in solving other pressing problems, Suarez
created a new ministry of health and social security and a com-
bined ministry of public works and urban development. He also
established a ministry of culture and welfare under Pio Caba-
nillas, a liberal, who was fired by Franco as information mini-
ster in 1974 for allowing greater press freedom.
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ties with the US.
Along with his deputy prime ministers for defense and
for political affairs, Suarez retained his foreign minister,
Marcelino Oreja, a Christian Democrat, who strongly supports
membership for Spain in both the EC and NATO and advocates close
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