NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030100010050-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 3, 2005
• Sequence Number: 50
• Publication Date: May 31, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Tuesday May 31,___1977.
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Tuesday, May 31, 1977.
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senior otticials.
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RHODESIA-MOZAMBIQUE: Incursion
ANGOLA: Discontent Growing
SOUTH AFRICA - NAMIBIA: Execution
ISRAEL: The Dayan Controversy
LEBANON: Negotiations Deadlocked
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RHODESIA-MOZAMBIQUE: Incursion
The Rhodesian military incursion into Mozambique over
the weekend occurred the same day the joint US-UK team arrived
in Mozambique for talks with black Rhodesian nationalists and
was apparently intended in part to underscore Prime Minister
Smith's willingness to support his tough negotiating position
with military action. The Rhodesians have probably known the
location of the guerrilla camp struck in the raid for some time.
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I IThe joint US-UK team arrived in Maputo on Sunday for
a s wi Robert Mugabe, the most militant of the black Rho-
desian nationalist leaders. The team has been seeking the views
of all parties to the Rhodesian problem on possible terms for
a peaceful settlement and had just completed talks with Smith
last week in Salisbury.
The latest Rhodesian cross-border operation is only
e it one officially announced by Salisbury and is the
largest such action since a three-day operation in northwestern
Mozambique last November. The guerrilla camp is in the Rhodesia
Mozambique - South Africa triborder area, and at last report the
Rhodesian attack was continuing even deeper inside Mozambique.
According to press reports, some 20 guerrillas have been killed
and a large quantity of war materiel has been seized.
Rhodesian government policy requires that all poten-
tially sensitive cross-border operations be cleared by the prime
minister. Smith undoubtedly approved the present operation to
dramatize Rhodesia's determination to carry the war to the in-
surgents for as long as possible and to demonstrate his willing-
ness to back his tough negotiating stance with strenuous mili-
tary action.
ANGOLA: Discontent Growing
//Angolan-President Neto may have quashed
is growing.
Luanda was calm this weekend, although a heavy guard
was main ained around the presidential palace, the radio station,
and other strategic positions. The government announced that the
finance minister, four other members of the central committee
of the ruling Popular Movement, and a senior official of the in-
ternal security forces were killed by the dissidents. Press re-
ports estimate that more than 100 people may have died in the
fighting. Nito Alves and Jose van Dunem, leaders of the dissi-
dents who staged the coup attempt, apparently have escaped.
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//Despite the failure of the coup attempt,
6v still rally support among Luanda's poor and 25X1
he may seek allies among other dissidents in the military and
the party.
//Many believe the Active Revolt faction is
the only via e a ernative to the Neto government. It report-
edly has been gaining strength in recent months. The Active Re-
volt is thought to have disseminated the anti-Neto pamphlets
that appeared in Luanda last month.//
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SOUTH AFRICA - Namibia: Execution
I South Africa's execution yesterday of a con-
victed murderer who had been active in the South-West Africa
Peoples Organization may seriously hamper efforts to achieve
a peaceful settlement in Namibia.
The South Africans convicted Nduvuu Philemon Nangola
of mur er in two incidents in late 1975 and early 1976 in north-
ern Namibia in which three white adults and one child were killed.
They dropped a terrorism charge, perhaps because Nangola refused
to admit his SWAPO connection.
I //Five Western powers--the US, UK, West Germany,
France, an Canada--which have been involved in trying to achieve
a peaceful transition to black majority rule in Namibia had ap-
pealed strongly for a stay of execution, but Prime Minister
Vorster was adamant that it was an ordinary murder case and that
occurred
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s
en
Nan ola had defected from SWAPO before the inc
W PO and mos TTN members will view the execution as
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UN Secretary General Waldheim, the UN Com-
nations
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ern
five Wes
mission on Human Rights, and the International Commission of
Jurists seeking help in getting a stay of execution for Nangola.
I I By deciding to go ahead with the execution without de-
wy, sou Africa reaffirmed its policy of no amnesty for con-
victed criminals. The execution and the widespread international 25X1
condemnation it is expected to arouse will make it much more dif-
ficult for the parties invol ed in the Namibian question to
reach compromise solutions.
ISRAEL: The Dayan Controversy
The Likud party executive committee in Israel ha,
passed a resolution requiring party head Menahem Begin to sub-
mit all his cabinet nominations to the committee after he s
formally designated to form a government sometime next month.
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The resolution, temporarily freezes Begin's offer of he For-
eign Ministry to former defense minister Moshe Dayan, and
party leaders hope it will placate the Democratic Movement for
Change, which broke off coalition talks last week in opposi-
tion to the Dayan nomination. The Democratic Movement, however,
may demand more concessions in return for its cooperai;ion.
The reaction of the Democratic Movement remains un-
especially since Begin seems determined to bring
Dayan into his cabinet eventually. Leaders of the Democratic
Movement planned to meet yesterday to discuss the possibility
of resuming coalition talks.
J Democratic Movement leader Yigael Yadin and other
party o icials said repeatedly last week that the party would
not resume coalition talks with Begin unless he withdrew his
offer to Dayan. Yadin and his colleagues fear that with the
conservative Dayan in charge of the Foreign Ministry, the Demo-
cratic Movement would be unable to exert a significant., moder-
ating influence on Likud's hardline negotiating stance.
The Democratic Movement might demand control of key
domestic ministries as the price for acceptance of Dayan as
Leaders of Likud's Liberal wing, who protested that
tney were not consulted about the offer to Dayan, appear satis-
fied with the new arrangement by which the Likud executive
committee, in which all party factions are represented, must
approve cabinet appointments. This is only a face-saving de-
vice for the Liberals, however, since Begin's Herut contingent
and other party groups that support the Dayan nomination en-
joy a majority in the executive committee.
LEBANON: Negotiations Deadlocked
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I ISarkis believes that if the Palestinians are disarmed
he wi nave grounds for demanding that Christian forces dis-
arm. He hopes this will enhance his authority and lay the
groundwork for future political negotiations between the Chris-
tian and Muslim communities.
Over the weekend, Christian leaders denounced the
Cairo agreements as "null and void" and urged the Arab League
to resolve the "illegal Palestinian presence in Lebanon." The
Christians clearly are trying to increase the pressure on Sar-
kis and other Arab leaders to force the Palestinians to accept
a tough interpretation of the Cairo accords.
Palestine Liberation Organization chairman Arafat
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fears--with justification--that disarming the Palestinians
would allow the Syrians to gain control over the movement and
leave the guerrillas vulnerable to Christian retaliation.
I IThe Syrians side with Sarkis but have shunned using
force w ich would:
--Meet stiff and costly resistance from the Palestinians.
--Antagonize the Saudis and Kuwaitis, who are subsidizing
Syrian operations in Lebanon and do not want Syria to
gain unilateral control over the PLO.
--Undermine Syria's broader interests at present in pro-
jecting an image of Arab unity during negotiations with Is-
rael.
As a result, Syria has had to try to strike a compro-
mise between the PLO and Sarkis by diplomatic means. Syrian
leaders recently have entertained a procession of Lebanese and
Palestinian leaders in Damascus, apparently in hopes of devis-
ing a formula that would satisfy Sarkis and still be palatable
to the mainline fedayeen groups.
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Fighting in the south, meanwhile, has settled down
into a routine exchange of artillery fire between Palestinian
and Christian forces in the area.
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