NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030100010028-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2006
• Sequence Number: 28
• Publication Date: May 17, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

A ro>R~l1f#~Igt~elease 2007/03/13
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National Intel n e Dail Cable for Tues
The NID Ca e is or pose o in o
senior o i als.
POLAND: Student Challenge to Regime
ETHIOPIA: Government Campaign
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Page 2
Page 5
JAPAN: Geothermal Efforts
Page 7
PORTUGAL: Unrest in Azores
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Conference in Mozambique
Page 9
ARAB STATES - LATIN AMERICA: Joint Investment Bank
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POLAND: Student Challenge to Regime
Students in Poland are pressing the Giere7c regime to
Znves Zga e the death of a student activist. If the students
maintain their public campaign, Giere7c will face his most seri-
ous political test since Zast June when Poles rioted to protest
proposed price increases.
Thousands of students attended a requiem mass, and
an es imated 5,000 took part in a silent candle-lit procession
Sunday in Krakow to mourn the death of a student human rights
activist, Stanislaw Pyjas. Polish officials prevented several
leading members of the dissident human rights organization,
the Workers Defense League, from participating in these events.
The students, who believe Pyjas was murdered by local
police thugs, are keeping up pressure on the regime to carry
out a full investigation. At Sunday's demonstrations they an-
nounced they have established a Students' Solidarity Committee
to support the human rights goals of the Workers Defense League,
an organization established earlier this year by Polish intel-
lectuals. They also announced their intention to stage memorial
services in other Polish cities.
Party leader Gierek may soon face his most ticklish
po i ica situation since last June's riots. Students are now
celebrating the end of this school year and normally would
soon disperse to summer vacations and jobs. If the students
turn these celebrations into political protests and maintain
their activities, Gierek will be forced to make some tough de-
cisions.
The official news media continue to say that Pyjas
died after falling down some stairs in a drunken stupor, and
the party daily has labeled the demonstrations in Krakow a
"political provocation."
//Regime leaders, however, remained silent.
sere pro a y opes that the student fervor will die out. If
it does not, he must decide whether to agree to an investiga-
tion into the death or to follow a tough policy. If he follows
the former course, tensions would decrease but the human rights
activists will gain a "victory" that would cause reverberations
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within the party and state bureaucracies, which may already be
in favor of a harsher course against dissidents. If he pursues
a tough course, Gierek risks further demonstrations anal stu-
dent activity.//
There is no indication that workers, who spearheaded
ast June's demonstrations, have be-come involved in the most
recent incidents. The regime will carefully monitor the mood
in the factories to prevent any linkup with students_
ETHIOPIA: Government Campaign
Activitz~ in support of Ethiopia's planned peasant
_
campaign against antigovernment groups in the northwestern
part of the country has increased markedly in the past tzvo
weeks, and the peasant militia may begin operations as early
as the end of May.
Cash contributions equaling almost $1 million have
een ma e by the public, and a training camp at Siga Meda near
Addis Ababa now contains some 55,000 to 80,000 peasant militia-
men. Citizens' associations in Addis Ababa are contributing
labor to support the camp.
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The government has not announced the objectives of
e campaign, except in general terms of "defending the mother-
land." We expect it to be directed first at crushing the moder-
ate Ethiopian Democratic Union in the Gondar region and the
secessionist Tigre People's Liberation Frant in the Tigre region,
and also at eliminating the few packets of leftist dissidents in
the two areas. An offensive against insurgents in Eritrea Prov-
ince presumably will follow if the first phase is successful.
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The peasant militia has been assembling at the Siga
e a raining camp in response to two speeches in April by
Provisional Government Chairman Mengistu. The "volunteers" are
housed in donated tents which do not providz adequate protec-
tion against the cold, and there have been rumors of cholera
and typhoid outbreaks in the camp. Some training appears to be
under way, but weapons reportedly are issued without ammunition
and locked up at night.
To provide the militia with leaders, the government
as acce erated or cut short training of several hundred army
officer candidates. The most recent class from one officer
training school has been assigned to the peasants' training
camp.
There are indications, such as orders for the delivery
of gasoline, that the militia may take the field as early as the
end of this month--after only one month of training. If the mili-
tia delays much beyond that time, it would run into the rainy
season, when large-scale military operations would be exceedingly
difficult.
Sizable numbers of troops, fuel tankers, and equipment--
including some recently delivered Soviet weapons--have been
heading north from Addis Ababa to Gondar and Makale. Ethiopian
radio has been claiming significant successes by the regular
army in recent operations against the Ethiopian Democratic Union.
The effectiveness of any offensive by the peasant
militia will largely be determined by the amount of training
it receives. The group has a better base of organization, sup-
plies, and weapons than the thousands of peasants who were sent
out to fight secessionist guerrillas in Eritrea last year; that
operation turned into a debacle.
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//Japan has an extensive program to develop the
tec no ogy an construct the poser plants needed to use its geo-
thermal energy resources to help overcome its dependence on im-
ported fuels. The Japanese hope to obtain nearly an eighth of
Japan has experimented with generating geothermal
power or some time, and completed its first practical geother-
mal power plant in 1966. Operating geothermal plants now have
a capacity of 53 megawatts; three facilities of 50 megawatts
each are under construction. All use natural geothermal steam.
By 1985, the Japanese hope to have 2,100 megawatts of opera-
tional power capacity using natural geothermal steam.
Other sources of geothermal heat, such as thermal
wa ers, volcanic rock, and magma, will subsequently be exploited.
A 10-megawatt test unit using thermal waters is planned for 1980
and a 50-megawatt plant for 1990. A 100-megawatt facility ex-
ploiting volcanic or dry hot-rock technology is planned for op-
eration by 1995.
Altogether the Japanese expect to have approximately
megawatts of geothermal power capacity by the end of the
century. Recent surveys have identified over 10,000 sites in
Japan where geothermal power production may be possible, and
one source estimates that Japan has 10 percent of the earth's
readily accessible geothermal potential.
The requisite technology is available to build the
more t an 40 natural steam power plants of 50 megawatts each
that Japan will need to achieve its 1985 goals for geothermal
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generating capacity. Further increases in geothermal power pro-
duction in Japan will include new technology to exploit lower
temperature water and dry heat sources such as hot-rock and
magma deposits. Such systems are being studied by the Japanese
and others, and the Soviets recently announced that they will
undertake a volcanic power project on Kamchatka.
None of the new systems being studied has yet been
use anyw ere to generate electric power on a commercial scale.
Exploitation of geothermal sources other than steam is unlikely
to contribute greatly to helping Japan meet its ambitious geo-
thermal power goals for the year 2000.
Geothermal energy, as well as the other forms of non-
nuc ear energy being investigated under Project Sunshine, is ex-
pected to contribute to solving Japan's energy problem. Geother-
mal sources are expected to contribute only 1.5 percent of Ja-
pan's electricity supply by 1985 and possibly 12 percent by the
year 2000. By comparison, installed nuclear capacity ilz 2000
is conservatively expected to constitute about a quarter of Ja-
pan's electricity supply but could, conceivably, furnish as much
as half of electricity output-.
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Azorean separatists clashed with police in the main
e2ty o Ponta Delgada on Sao Miguel Island Sunday night over
the raising of the Azorean flag at a religious celebration.
Portuguese army and police reinforcements mere brought in yes-
terday, and the situation appears to have calmed.
According to the US consul in Ponta Delgada, the dis-
pu a egan when supporters of the Azorean Liberation Front--a
conservative group advocating immediate independence for the
archipelago--defied orders from Portuguese authorities and in-
sisted on flying Azorean flags alongside Portuguese flags as
decorations for a local holiday. The Azorean flags normally are
flown openly on private property.
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During the ensuing scuffle between separatists and po-
ke a empting to remove the Azorean flags, gunfire by one of
the separatists wounded four policemen and one civilian. Sev-
eral others were injured by rocks.
he separatists may have been trying to gain sympathy
or eir cause while thousands of visitors were present, and
the incident should remind the government in Lisbon that the
Azores must be treated with care. Most islanders have decided
for the time being to settle for autonomy under Portugal, but
sentiment for independence continues to exist beneath t:he sur-
face and could be increased by an unpopular action by Portu-
guese authorities.
The incident has created new tensions between the
Socia fists, who lead the mainland government, and the social
Democrats, who dominate the Azorean regional government:. The
Socialists were quick to criticize the regional government's
lack of firmness in dealing with the separatists.
The Social Democrats, in contrast, have played down
t e inci ent. The regional government responded tha-t tt~~e munic-
ipal authorities in Ponta Delgada had not intended to offend
the mainland in allowing the Azorean flags to fly, but wanted
to affirm their interest in regional autonomy.
Portuguese President Eaves has taken a stand similar
o a o the Socialists, condemning the events as "intolerable"
and criticizing the "inaction of the regional government."
Eaves' statement is not in keeping with the understanding he
has recently shown toward Azorean leaders and their bids for
increased autonomy. Regional officials are wary of the Socialist
leaders in Portugal, but thought President. Eanes would protect
their interests in Lisbon.
The violence appears to have no connection with the
visit o Vice President Mondale to Lisbon. Eaves' response,
however, may have been harsher than usual in an attempt to
demonstrate the stabilit of his government to the visiting
US delegation.
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The Maputo conference undoubtedly will approve strin-
gent economic and military sanctions against South Africa, al-
though some countries may not associate themselves with a final
report in this vein. All participants, however, are likely to
find something satisfa 'ther the o enin speeches or
some of those to come.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Conference in Mozambique
A UN-sponsored conference in support of the peoples
0 o esia and Namibia opened yesterday in Maputo, Mozambique.
The conference, zuhieh will run through Saturday, is being at-
tended by representatives of more than 80 countries, as well
as numerous organizations that have been involved in the Rho-
desian and Namibian problems. The Maputo meeting affords an un-
usual opportunity for the exchange of views, especially between
moderates and militants, on the goals of self-determination and
independence for bZaclc majorities.
Opening speeches by UN Secretary General Waldheim,
Press en Machel of Mozambique, and OAU Secretary General Eteki
were relatively mild. Machel confined himself largely to de-
nouncing concerns over minority rights, noting that whites are
trying to remain a small group of privileged foreigners. At the
same time, he spoke of the positive steps that have been taken
on negotiations, a reference to the new initiatives by Western
countries on both Rhodesia and Namibia.
The rest of Machel's speech and that of Eteki were
reportedly largely standard militant rhetoric, although both
made some attempt to tone down their language. This
l
eemin
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g
s
may have been done partly because of the presence of representa-
tives from those Western countries involved in current negotiat-
ing efforts. According to the US embassy in Maputo, some of the
speeches to come may also take a mild tone. Yesterday's speech
by South-West African People's Organization leader Nujoma was
a good deal less abrasive than his prepared text.
Even so, the more militant nationalist organizations,
such as t e odesian nationalists' Patriotic Front, may make
a considerable effort to denounce negotiations in any form and
to seek endorsement for a large increase in the military strug-
gle. //Robert Mugabe, one of the Patriotic Front's leaders, also
addressed yesterday's opening session; he again condemned the
UK's "vacillation and indecision" toward Rhodesia and reasserted
L that peace now could come "only through the instrument of war."//
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ARAB STATES - LATIN AMERICA: Joint Investment Bank
Kuz~ait and Libya have offered several Latin American
an s 60 million to fund a joint development bank. The neza
bank, with an initial capitalization tentatively set at $100
million, tuouZd help finance joint Arab - Latin American indus-
tr2aZ projects in Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Argentina, and Peru.
Some of the Latin American b