NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A030000010050-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2006
• Sequence Number: 50
• Publication Date: April 29, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday April 29, 1977 CG NIDC 77-99C
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, April 29, 1977,
11
or a purpose o informing
senior officials.
CONTENTS
PAKISTAN: Speeches in Parliament
Page 2
Page 3
ZAMBIA: Cabinet Reorganization
Page 5
USSR: Another Hotel Rossiya Fire
Page 8
Page 13
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PAKISTAN: Speeches in Parliament
I IPrime Minister Bhutto and Foreign Minister Aziz Ah-
me , zn speeches to parliament, have accused the US of med-
dling in Pakistani domestic politics. The US embassy regards
Bhutto's speech as signaling the opening of a new and difficult
period in US-Pakistani relations.
Without specifically naming the US, Bhutto said a
superpower" was flooding the country with dollars in an effort
to "destabilize" Pakistan. He tied this to attempts to prevent
Pakistan from acquiring a nuclear fuel-reprocessing plant.
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In the same speech, Bhutto did name the US in complain-
ing about a telephone conversation--tapped by the Pakistanis--
in which US diplomats allegedly said Bhutto was finished as
prime minister. The embassy believes the conversation was one
in which the consulate in Karachi reported the views of one of
its contacts, not the views of a US official.
Corporation's alleged efforts to encourage subversion. The BBC's
balanced coverage of events in Pakistan has made it an impor-
tant source of news for Pakistanis.
activities, concentrating instead on the British Broadcasting
The foreign minister was far less specific about US
some basis for his charges.
but there are also indications that Bhutto believes there is
Similar allegations already have appeared in the press.
Their speeches, however, were considerably stronger than any
of their previous public statements. They obviously are trying
to discredit the opposition by claiming it has foreign backing,
CHILE: Church-State Relations
//President Pinochet, reacting in an uncharacteris-
tically conciliatory manner, has backed off for the moment from
some of the heavy-handed policies that recently incited bitter
condemnation from the Catholic Church, the Christian Democratic
Party, labor leaders, the press, and leading intellectuals.
Pinochet is probably concerned that he had overstepped himself
by enacting a series of harsh measures advocated by a close
circle of extreme rightist advisers.//
//To avert a confrontation with the Catholic Church
and em arrassment abroad, Pinochet abruptly ousted Justice Min-
ister Damilano on April 20. The minister,
I was
in orrice for just over a month. He aroused a ire o e
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Catholic hierarchy by publicly attacking a group of bishops
for their strong censure of social and political conditions in
Chile.//
//Damilano's statements appeared in print at a
T
Me WNen__P)
nochet has been cautiously seeking to avoid fric-
tion with the church. In a letter to the offended bishops, the
President clearly disavowed the views of the outspoken minister.//
//Although junta and church leaders have gone to
some lengths to keep their dispute from leading to a sharp
break, the church seems likely to assume a more belligerent at-
titude in the future. So far, the most striking evidence of in-
creasing stridency has been a church attack on the junta for
dissolving Chile's remaining democratic political parties last
month. The church is virtually the only stronghold of criticism
that has not been silenced by the government.//
1//May Day observances planned by the church and
Christian Democratic labor leaders could provide a platform
for the expression of antigovernment views. They will probably
be careful, however, to refrain from any action that might pro-
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ZAMBIA: Cabinet Reorganization
I Sweeping Zambian cabinet changes this week reflect
the country's serious economic problems and perhaps some dis-
content in the military.
At a widely publicized gathering of cabinet officials,
press representatives, and diplomats, President Kaunda announced
the sacking of several ministers, the reassignment of others,
and a reorganization of the government's economic ministries.
The fired ministers were ousted for political misdeeds, but
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the reorganization was designed mainly to enable the ministries
responsible for the economy better to come to grips with Zam-
bia's economic problems. Kaunda also announced that changes
within the ruling party may soon take place.
The new appointees are young and personally depen-
dent on Kaunda. They lack both experience and political strength
and were chosen mainly because of their loyalty to the Presi-
dent. They are not likely to have much impact on the economic
situation.
Kaunda plays the key role in directing all national
activities. He can be authoritarian when necessary but prefers
to work for consensus. Domestic problems and dissension within
the ruling party often persist for some time before Kaunda fin-
ally steps in to take firm action.
The cabinet reshuffle appears to fit this pattern.
For a variety of reasons, Zambia's economy has been under se-
vere strain. Shortages of essential consumer items and the gov-
ernment's serious foreign exchange problems have produced some
criticism of Kaunda, his policies, and the officials around him.
I I Kaunda has been criticized for lack of attention to
internal matters because of his involvement in foreign affairs,
particularly Rhodesia. The dramatic way in which he announced
the cabinet changes is typical of his approach to problem solv-
ing; he seems to think a sudden burst of activity will somehow
ameliorate economic conditions, enhance his image, and quiet
internal criticism. His hint of changes within the party lead-
ership may have been made with next year's national election
in mind. There has been some concern in party and government
circles that Kaunda might be embarrassed by a poor voter turn-
out.
//One surprise in the reshuffle was the removal
0 ong-time defense force commander General Chinkuli from his
military position, and his appointment to head a ministry. No
clear reason for his removal has emerged, but rumors suggest
he has been accused of corruption, ineptness, or too much am-
bition.//
//Chinkuli has long been considered by observers
to be lackluster and has often been criticized by others in
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the military. A common thread in the criticism is that discon-
tent with his leadership was growing within the military. There
is also a report that a number of officers were threatening to
appeal directly to Kaunda.//
I I It would be typical of Kaunda to avoid dealing with
p o in the military until they became too serious to ig-
nore. It seems likely that Kaunda, constantly fearful of white
Rhodesian retaliation for his support to black insurgents and
skittish over imagined security threats, may have decided that
discontent with Chinkuli and other shortcomings of the military
required a change of commanders.
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//Senior Brazilian officials are concerned
about a possz e resurgence of student activism at the Univer-
sity of Sao Paulo. Student protests could lead to major-anti-
government demonstrations in the city, especially if the stu-
dents are joined by unemployed workers.//
//Late last month, about 3,000 students partic-
ipa a in a pro est that, while peaceful, provoked an overreac-
tion by security forces that resulted in the worst traffic jam
in the history of Sao Paulo. Although the students said they
were protesting cuts in the university's budget,
they were actually demonstrating agains
President else. s rumored intention to take additional anti-
democratic measures.//
I I Soon after, Geisel suspended the national congress
or two weeks and decreed several measures that effectively
undercut the growing strength of the legal opposition party.
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Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest industrial center, is a
major opposition stronghold. Despite the absence of any reac-
tion to Geisel's moves, there is no doubt his recent actions
are especially unpopular there. While the country as a whole
has suffered from rampant inflation, government economic poli-
cies have been especially unpopular with Sao Paulo businessmen,
and a slowdown in the automotive industry there has resulted
in numerous layoffs.
//Security officials are reportedly taking meas-
ures to guar against any serious disruptions, which might oc-
cur as early as May 1. While they will probably not try to pre-
vent rallies or demonstrations composed entirely of students,
they are concerned that unemployed workers might loin the stu-
den
IThe authorities could easily disrupt any organized
demonstrations because the student groups and labor unions are
institutionally weak. P s nevertheless could occur spon-
taneously and mushroom.
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USSR: Another Hotel Rossiya Fire
I Ia fire broke out Zast Sunday in the east wing of
the Hote Rossiya. The hotel's north wing is still undergoing
extensive repairs after a catastrophic blaze on February 25
that killed or injured scores of guests.
I IThere is no information yet on the extent of Sunday's
tire or on possible casualties. Circumstantial evidence sug-
gests, however, that the blaze was considerably smaller than
the earlier one.
I With two fires in as many months, hotel authorities
reportedly were extremel on edge. One official, for example,
at first tried to deny that there was a
fire but finally admitted to a "small inci ent" when firemen
arrived and smoke was evident.
Traditional Soviet reticence to acknowledge fires,
accidents, and other "sensationalist" events limited Soviet re-
porting on the February blaze to a curt, uninformative announce-
ment. The first detailed account of that fire appeared on April
20 in the journal Literary Gazette. The article was, character-
istically, designed to extol official measures to combat the
fire and to refute alle edl tendentious and slanderous reports
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