NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029900010024-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 17, 2006
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: March 14, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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 Approved For
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Monday, March 14, 1977.
The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
ZAIRE: Situation Report
ITALY: Campus Violence
NAMIBIA: Turnhalle Conference
FRANCE: Municipal Elections
UN: World Water Conference
SAUDI ARABIA: Crude Oil Pipeline
KENYA-TANZANIA: Tensions Easing
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ZAIRE: Situation Report
//The former Katangan gendarmes who struck into
Zaire's Shaba Province last week apparently are continuing to
consolidate their positions around the towns of Dilolo, Kisenge,
and Kapanga, which they occupied in the initial phase of the in-
vasion.
The supply situation may begin to ease this week, how-
ever. .e Belgian government has responded favorably to Presi-
dent Mobutu's request for assistance, and several transports are
due to leave Belgium for Zaire shortly.
I I The US embassy in Kinshasa has received reports from
western aba that some of the local inhabitants are welcoming
the invaders. The former Katangan gendarmes appear to be well
disciplined and are treating the population well. They apparently
are describing themselves as liberators.
I I Press accounts over the weekend indicate that a group
ca ing itself the Congolese National Liberation Front is claim-
ing credit for the offensive. The US embassy reports that the
organization was established in Angola in 1963 by the former gen- 25X1
darmes. The front is said to be led by the former gendarme com-
mander, General Bumba.
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ITALY: Campus Violence
Violent clashes between students and police in Italy
over t e weekend were the most serious and widespread so far in
the country's current wave of student unrest. The incidents are
symptomatic of the growing political violence which, in recent
months, has begun to rival the country's economic problems as
a matter of concern for Italian government and party leaders.
I I The climate of violence on Italian campuses stems in
par rom the shrinking job opportunities for graduates and a
belief among students that the government's recent university
reform proposals are designed to roll back the liberalization
of admission and curriculum requirements that resulted from the
last round of university unrest, in 1968.
I I The immediate cause of the events this weekend, however,
was the killing of a leftist student leader by police in Commu-
nist-run Bologna. Students had barricaded the university there
last week to protest the sentencing of a leftist youth in con-
nection with the murder of a right-winger two years ago.
The incident in Bologna triggered violent student dem-
onstrations in other major cities, including Rome, Naples,
Florence, and Milan. In Turin, a police officer involved in the
investigation of students was murdered in retaliation for the
killing in Bologna.
Student-related violence is posing a particular problem
tor t He Communist Party, which--by virtue of its tacit support
for the Christian Democratic government--is increasingly regarded
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by students as part of the establishment. The party was stunned
last month, for example, when the head of the Communist.-dominated
labor union was driven violently from the campus of Rome Univer-
sity after giving a speech intended to assert Communist leader-
ship of the student protest movement there. The Communists will
doubtless also be embarrassed by the outbreak of violence in
Bologna, which the party always holds up as a model of efficient
municipal administration.
The Communists' concern over their image among
students stems primarily from the major contribution that the
youth vote made to the party's sharp gains in recent elections.
25X1
Except for a brief pause in January, political violence
in general has been increasing sharply since last fall. These
incidents are mainly the work of left- and right-wing extremist
groups not associated with the regular political parties. The
attacks have increasingly focused on government and public in-
stitutions, as well as on business and industrial establishments.
The government recently issued a series of decree laws
esigne to make it easier for the authorities to move against
extremists. Comments yesterday by Prime Minister Andreotti sug-
gest that he may use the violence this weekend to speed. up con-
sideration of police, judicial, and educational reform legisla-
tion, which has been stalled by poli cal differences among the
parties that support his government.
NAMIBIA: Turnhalle Conference
I The constitutional conference on independence for
Namibia is drawing to a close. According to a South African of-
ficial, the full conference has been considering draft segments
of an interim constitution as they emerge from the small draft-
ing committee. The official expects the conference as a whole
to end by Tuesday.
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prime minister, as wanted by the nonwhites, or a chairman of
the council of ministers, as wanted by the whites--has been
resolved in the whites' favor. The chairman must have the
The one remaining issue--whether there should be a
unanimous approval of the one white and the ten nonwhite dele-
gations in the national assembly, thus effectively giving a
veto to the whites.
Despite seemingly major problems during the consti-
tutional drafting period, which began in January, the conference
has stayed remarkably close to the schedule predicted by Dirk
Mudge, the moderate white chairman of the drafting committee.
Mudge is probably the leading choice to be the first chairman
of the council of ministers during the interim period before
full independence, tentatively scheduled for December 31, 1978.
Once the conference ends, a formal proposal for the
establishment of an interim government will be sent to South
Africa. Prime Minister Vorster is likely to push the enabling
legislation through his parliament as quickly as possible.
compromise between the conflicting ethnic interests--favorable
to the whites, but with potentially significant concessions to
the nonwhite groups. The central government is to have nominal
jurisdiction over such important matters as industry, labor,
social services, and justice. The prescribed composition of the
The draft interim constitution reflects an uneven
central government, however, would leave the "second-tier" units--
the governing bodies of each tribal homeland and the white
sector---with ample power to block any substantial action by the
central government. The council of ministers is to have one
member selected by each ethnic group, and decisions of the
council are to be by consensus.
The larger ethnic groups are to have more seats in
the National Assembly than the smaller ones, but legislation is
to be approved by a majority within each delegation. The existing
homeland legislatures are to retain much of their present juris-
diction over their peoples and lands, and also are to select
the ethnic delegations to the National Assembly. A bill of
rights guarantees freedom of speech and association and freedom
from racial discrimination, but enforcement provisions appear
inadequate.
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I According to the South African press, a spokesman for
the Sou -West Africa Peoples Organization has predictably de-
nounced the work of the constitutional committee as a "Bantustan
policy in thin disguise."
TI-1 continuation of white political and economic pre-
dominance in Namibia at least through the period of the interim
government will give SWAPO a major propaganda target, as it
seeks in coming months to gain adherents to its cause both in
Namibia and elsewhere.
FRANCE: Municipal Elections
Gaullist leader Jacques Chirac appears to have won
the first round of his bid to become mayor of Paris. Elsewhere
in France the Socialist-Communist alliance made impressive
gains in yesterday's nationwide municipal elections.
lete returns indicate that Chirac won about
Incom
p
i
t of the first-round vote in Paris and that Minister
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percen
of Industry d'Ornano, President Giscard's hand-picked candi-
date, won 21 percent. The left picked up around 33 percent of
the vote in Paris and the ecologists--an important swing
group--ll percent. The ecologist vote is expected to split
between the left and the Giscard forces in the run-off elec-
tion next Sunday.
In France's more than 200 cities with a population
the left obtained about 52 percent of the vote
000
f over 30
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o
while the center-right won 46 percent. The left apparently won
control of more than 20 townships that had been held by the
conservative forces, including Brest, Chartres, and Reims.
Pro-government forces were able to take three towns from the
Socialist-Communist opposition. The majority of contests have
not been decided and will be settled in the run-off.
The leftward shift in the country appears to have
~ad a so ering effect on the quarreling parties within the
governing coalition.
I IA spokesman for Giscard's Independent Republican
Party has urged that the parties in the coalition end their ri-
valry. D'Ornano has announced that those of his candidates who
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finished second yesterday will not enter next Sunday's run-off
in order to prevent a leftist victory. Chirac already had
agreed to such a step. 25X1
The United Nations Water Conference, which opens on
March 14 in Mar del Plata, Argentina, will consider how best
to manage world water supplies. The conference is directed at
policy planners in the hope that concern about water will be
translated into a series of concrete proposals for national,
regional, and international action. Senior officials from some
135 countries are expected to participate, along with repre-
sentatives from a number of international, regional, and non-
governmental organizations.
The primary objective of the conference is to avert
threatened water crises in the next few decades. In many areas
of the world, present rates of water consumption are already
straining available supplies. This problem will be worsened by
rapid population growth and by increased industrialization,
urbanization, and agricultural development. At the same time,
inadequate waste disposal systems and the proliferation of
man-made chemicals and other pollutants are contributing to a
serious deterioration in the quality of water.
The emerging crisis has far-reaching implications
for a countries, particularly the less developed ones.
Living standards in all societies are closely related to water
use, and higher standards require higher use rates per capita.
Water has become an important limiting factor in development
and progress in most countries, enhancing the potential for
social, political, and economic instability.
The Mar del Plata meeting could result in an inter-
national consensus on a number of policy and operational meas-
ures. It also could begin an unprecedented review of the whole
range of water problems: inadequate potable supplies, pollution,
water-borne disease as well as drought and flood.
The small budget and broad focus of the conference
will make it difficult to achieve even limited goals.
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I lAdditional complications will come in the form of the
political issues usually raised at UN conferences. A number of
the attending states will, moreover, see the meeting as an
opportunity to focus international attention on bilateral
water-related disputes, such as the Israeli-Jordanian dispute
over the use of Jordan River water and the Indian disagreement
with Bangladesh over e uitable use of Ganges River water.
SAUDI ARABIA: Crude Oil Pipeline
Saudi Arabia's state oil company
last month
awarded
Mobil Overseas Pipeline Company a contract
to manage the de-
sign and construction of a 1,270-kilometer
crude oil pipeline
linking Saudi Arabian oil fields with the
Red
Sea. The
pipe-
line, projected to cost $1.6 billion, will
be
financed
entirely
by Saudi Arabia and will be constructed by
a
Japanese
firm.
The pipeline will carry crude from the Khurais and
Ghawar fields in the Eastern Province to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Three additional fields--Mazalij, Abu Jifan, and Qirdi?--may be
developed to feed the pipeline. The Saudis expect the pipeline
to be completed in late 1981. It will eventually have a capac-
ity of between 2 million and 2.3 million barrels per day.
Most of the crude will be exported through a termi-
nal, to be built at Yanbu, capable of berthing the largest
tankers now in operation. Crude exports will be shipped to the
Mediterranean via either the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline or
the Suez Canal, which Egypt is planning to expand to accommo-
date larger tankers by 1982. Some crude will also be used to
supply a refinery and petrochemical complex at Yanbu.
I IThe Saudis' motives in constructing the pipeline are
partly strategic. The project will provide an oil export route
that avoids the Persian Gulf and more particularly the strate-
gic Strait of Hormuz. The only other such route for Saudi oil
to the Mediterranean--the Trans-Arabian Pipeline--has been
closed to exports for more than 2 years.
Saudi Arabia, as part owner of the Suez-Mediterranean
pipeline, hopes to make the Yanbu export operation a viable in-
put for it. The state oil company probably will set transit
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fees for its east-west pipeline at a level that will make the
entire transport operation, including shuttling crude across
the Red Sea by tanker, economically feasible. Mobil, which has
a 10-year contract to ship crude through the Suez-Mediterranean
pipeline, can be expected to become a major client of the new
Saudi pipeline.
KENYA-TANZANIA: Tensions Easing
I I Frictions between Kenya and Tanzania which followed
Renya s grounding of the debt-ridden East African Airways and
Tanzania's retaliatory closure of the border have eased in re-
cent weeks. Mutual interests, such as dividing the airline's
assets impounded by Kenya and a shared concern over Ugandan
President Amin, may lead to further cooperation between the
two governments, but economic, political, and personal differ-
ences will continue to preclude close ties.
//Tanzania has apparently been hurt more than
Kenya by the airline's collapse and the border closure. Tanza-
nian tourism, much of which has customarily been routed through
Nairobi, has been especially hard hit, and the cessation of
passenger and freight service on Lake Victoria is reportedly
causing acute transportation problems on the Tanzanian side. At
the same time, the more developed Kenyan economy has apparently
been better able to absorb the losses resulting from the dis-
ruption of trade.//
Since independence in the early 1960s, the two coun-
tries have been gradually drawn apart by divergent national
priorities, conflicting approaches to development, and personal
differences between their leaders. The contrast is striking be-
tween Kenya, with its more advanced and essentially capitalist
economy, and Tanzania, with its emphasis on socialism and com-
munal cooperation.
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I I The recent incidents will probably have some lasting
effects, including efforts by Tanzania to reduce permanently
its trade. with Kenya and to seek alternate sources for goods,
such as petroleum supplies, normally obtained from Kenya. Tan-
zania has long been concerned about its dependence on Kenya.
It is apparently preparing to redirect its trade and transpor-
tation links toward its more ideologically compatible neighbors
to the south, Zambia and Mozambique.
Kenya, for its part, appears prepared to go it alone, 25X1
at least for the time being. F I 25X1
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