NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029900010022-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 3, 2006
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: March 12, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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Access to this document will be restricted to
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Saturday March 12, 1977 CG NIDC 77-058C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
DIA review(s) completed.
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'A Security Classification
State DeptArjydcl~PlPI6e 2007/03/06: CIA-RDP79TOO975AO 99000
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 Approved For Ro
25X1 IlThe NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior officials.
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday, March 12, 1977.
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ZAIRE-ANGOLA: Military Situation
FRANCE: Voters to Polls
OPEC: The Split Deepens
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Page 2
Page 4
PAKISTAN: Nationwide Strike
ISRAEL-ECUADOR: New Aircraft Offer
FRANCE-NATO: French Decision
TURKEY: Sismik Sails Again
Page 7
Page 8
Page 9
Page 9
ROMANIA: Earthquake Rescue Work
CHINA: Railroads-Decisive Steps
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Page 12
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ZAIRE-ANGOLA: Military Situation
___~J/There appears to have been no major change
in the military situation in southern Zaire. Dilolo, Kisenge,
and Kapanga are in Katangan hands, but the invasion force has
made no further inroads, and it appears that the Katangans may
be trying to consolidate what they now hold.
T e former Katangan gendarmes have used the radio f a-
ce i ies of missionaries in Kapanga to broadcast a statement to
the Zairian government. According to a Zairian summary of the
statement, the Katangans intend to liberate the country and
have no intention of withdrawing soon. They called on the peo-
ple to join them.
The Zairian military command began an effort yester-
day to airlift ammunition and some 1,500 troops from the Kin-
shasa area to Kamina, Kolwezi, and Lubumbashi. The air force
reportedly has dispatched 10 combat aircraft, including 5 Mi-
rage fighters, to Kamina airbase, which will be used to support
air strike operations. Two light transports have been sent to
Lubumbashi.
I I Thus far, the Zairian military appears to have been
able to circumvent most of the logistics bottlenecks they have
confronted. Some combat aircraft are being cannibalized to ren-
der others operational, and preparations for yesterday's air-
lift out of Kinshasa reportedly went smoothly.
Nevertheless, the military is encountering some prob-
lems. The air force is critically short of C-130 spares, for
example, and has little ordnance for its combat aircraft. Its
few pilots are spread thinly.
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The US defense attache in Kinshasa paints a bleak
overall picture of the Zairian military, citing low morale,
corruption, desertion, and a lack of discipline as its major
weaknesses. Aside from problems with logistics and maintenance,
he points out that many units are under strength, unevenly de-
ployed, and largely untested.
In addition to his requests to the US, President Mo-
butu is seeking urgent assistance from both the Belgians and
French. Paris has said it will provide 10 percent of Zaire's
ammunition requirements, and the Belgian cabinet was to meet
"immediately" to discuss Mobutu's requests. The Zairian shop-
ping list sent to Brussels includes varying quantities of ma-
chine guns, mortars, antitank rockets and mines, rifle grenades,
large amounts of as-sorted ammunition-, and bombs and rockets for
aircraft.
I I French voters go to the polls tomorrow and next Sun-
ay in tionwide municipal elections. At stake are almost half
a million municipal council seats, an important source of grass
roots political support for France's political parties, which
have become increasingly polarized between left and right. The
competition between left and right will overshadow many of the
contests, which are primarily local in nature.
Issues in most French cities involve such matters as
public transportation, crime control, taxes, and the environ-
ment. Most candidates have, however, identified themselves
with a national ticket, and the parties will be quick to ex-
tract statistics to demonstrate their national gains. Although
it is not uncommon for voters to demonstrate different alle-
giances in different elections, a strong showing by the Social-
ists would nonetheless give them important psychological momen-
tum for the parliamentary election next spring.
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The Socialist-Communist alliance is running joint
lists in all but 17 of the 221 cities with populations of over
30,000. It is likely to make substantial gains in the major
cities and to head the governments in some 60 percent of the
cities with populations between 30,000 and 300,000. Overall,
the left will probably poll more than half the votes cast, and
the Communists--piggybacking on the Socialists' strength--will
put a large number of their followers on municipal councils.
I I The governing parties--Gaullists, Independent Repub-
ic ns, and centrists--have agreed on joint lists in all but
21 of the cities with populations of over 30,000 but are likely
to do well primarily in Paris, Nice, and smaller towns; many
of the contests are too close to call.
The Paris mayoralty race, in which President Dis-
card's prestige is at stake because of his consistent backing
of the candidacy of Minister of Industry d'Ornano, is still a
toss-up; it appears that no party will have a majority on the
council. Recent private polls and polls by the French Ministry
of Interior show a leveling off of leftist votes to about 37
percent, a drop in votes for Gaullist leader Chirac and an in-
crease in votes for d'Ornano, resulting in a slight lead for
d'Ornano.
There are many unknown factors, however, including
the disposition on the second round of the ecologist vote--now
up to 12 percent in opinion polls. The "green electorate" is
generally unsympathetic to the Gaullists, but it is not clear
how it will be distributed between the Socialists and the Gis-
card forces. There are also at least six districts that are
too close to call with any accuracy.
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OPEC: The Split Deepens
The price split in the organization of Petroleum Ex-
porting ountries has widened, and Iran and Saudi Arabia have
hardened their positions.
Iran has emerged as the most vocal defender of the
10-percent price hike agreed to by 11 OPEC members in December.
Encouraged by strong oil sales in February, an Iranian spokes-
man stated on March 2 that the market has upheld the 10-percent
increase and that Iran is prepared to adopt the additional 5-
percent increase scheduled for July. Previously, Iran was pre-
pared to compromise by dropping the July price hike.
The spokesman also said Saudi crude is now selling
on the market at 9 percent above the 1976 level. That assertion
rankled Saudi Oil Minister Yamani, who publicly refuted it.
Despite the strong world demand for OPEC oil--produc-
tion as month was 3 million barrels per day higher than in
January--the Saudis have resisted pressure to alter their De-
cember decision. In late February, Yamani told reporters, "we
regret that our colleagues in OPEC have not altered their posi-
tion and we have no intention whatsoever of increasing the
price of our oil."
In words suggesting greater Saudi independence in
setting future prices, Yamani said, "OPEC has no right to fix
prices." According to Yamani, Saudi Arabia is now exercising
its sovereignty over its own oil.
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//On two occasions, Saudi Crown Prince Fahd in-
formed the US ambassador of his irritation with Iranian criti-
cism and abuse of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
over oil prices. He inquired whether the US would convey this
to the Shah.//
os o er OPEC na-
tions are either actively seeking a quick compromise or are
openly supporting one. Representatives of Qatar, Indonesia, Ku-
wait, and Algeria already have traveled extensively in pursuit
of an agreement. President Perez of Venezuela is scheduled to
visit the Middle East next month.
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PAKISTAN: Nationwide Strike
The nationwide strike yesterday protesting alleged
rigging of Pakistan's National Assembly election on Monday re-
ceived wide support in the cities of the Sind and the North-
West Frontier. The opposition alliance carried most of these
cities in the election and cannot assert that the strike proves
Prime Minister Bhutto's lack of support elsewhere.
In most major cities of the Punjab--which the oppo-
sition claims Bhutto won through fraud--the strike was only
partly effective. A report from the consulate in Lahore, how-
ever, suggests that the strike yesterday was more successful
than those during the campaign. In the all-important rural
areas, which gave Bhutto his commanding assembly majority, the
strike could indicate little about opposition support.
The opposition alliance's boycott of the provincial
assembly election on Thursday resulted in a low voter turnout.
Many voters undoubtedly stayed away because of sympathy with
the opposition, but others probably saw little point in voting
in a virtually uncontested election. Running only against in-
dependents and a party that does not belong to the alliance,
Bhutto's party won over 95 percent of the seats.
I I The opposition alliance will probably be encouraged
o continue its protests by the results of its initial efforts.
Opposition leaders reportedly were to meet last night in Lahore
to assess the effectiveness of the strike and to decide on fu-
ture action. If they believe they have public support, they.
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are likely to call for processions on Sunday. The support the
opposition would have for its threatened campaign to oust
Bhutto, however, is still unclear. 25X1
ISRAEL-ECUADOR: New Aircraft Offer
Israel apparently is preparing to make Ecuador an
alternate offer to the sale of the Israeli-made Kfir fighter
aircraft that was vetoed by the US. US approval was necessary
because 40 percent of the Kfir consists of US components.
The new Israeli offer apparently was made during a
recent visit to Western Europe and Israel by an Ecuadorean mis-
sion. The Israelis promised to ship the aircraft, becfinning in
six months, within a time frame that apparently would meet
Ecuador's requirement for rapid delivery.
One Ecuadorean source told the embassy that Ecuador
still hopes the US will offer a package of F-5E interceptors
and A-10 ground-attack aircraft. He indicated, however, that
if Ecuador cannot get what it wants from the US or Israel, it
will probably choose French Mirage Fl interceptors and more
Franco-British Jaguar ground-attack fighters. Ecuador has al-
ready purchased 12 Jaguars, two of which were recently deliv-
ered.
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//A deal for the Israeli Mirages could run into
a snag if the Israelis need French permission for the transfer.
France could deny the request in order to boost its own chances
of selling Ecuador the Fl.//
//France this week notified its NATO allies of
its, ecision to join the NATO-wide communications system. The
decision reflects a long-standing French desire to participate
selectively and quietly in NATO activities from which France
can derive direct benefits.//
//NATO Secretary General Luns has welcomed the
decision, which will allow France to communicate directly with
NATO headquarters in Brussels, the three major NATO military
commands, and all other NATO capitals. Luns has also invited
the French to participate in a pilot secure voice communica-
tions,system that would link France to several more military
headquarters.//
//Participation in both systems would substan-
tia y improve military communication and coordination within
NATO in the event of an attack. French and NATO officials ex-
pect to meet soon to discuss technical and financial arrange-
TURKEY: Sismik Sails Again
The Turkish minister of energy announced last week-
end at the oceanographic research ship Sismik I would resume
seismic exploration within a month. He did not address the key
question of where the ship would operate. A Foreign Ministry
official subsequently told the US embassy that Turkey had no
plans to send the ship into the Aegean; he added that this
would remain the government's policy "as long as.the Bern
agreement remains in force."
The Bern agreement was drawn up by the Greek and
Turkish foreign ministers in November to provide guidelines
for bilateral talks on the continental shelf issue. Among other
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things, it calls on Turkey to refrain from provocative actions
in the Aegean while talks are in progress. The force of the
agreement has since been diluted by differing Greek and Turk-
ish interpretations of its references to negotiating procedure.
The most recent round of continental shelf talks
ended in stalemate; the two sides are scheduled to meet again
later this month, but prospects for progress are not good. Im-
plicit in the Foreign Ministry official's statement is the
threat that Turkey might renounce or ignore the Bern principles
if the Turks are not satisfied with Greek attitudes.
The Turks would certainly consider carefully the im-
plications of taking such a step. They wish to appear reasona-
ble and forthcoming in view of the heightened interest in Greek-
Turkish affairs in the US and Western Europe.
In Prime Minister Demirel's mind, however, interna-
tional pressures could in the end be outweighed by domestic
political imperatives. He faces a close race in the parliamen-
tary election this year and will be tempted to exploit the Ae-
gean issue for political effect, as he did last year.
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ROMANIA: Earthquake Rescue Work
Romanian President Ceausescu's highly publicized per-
sonal ro e in directing the rescue work after the earthquake
of March 4 has stirred some dissatisfaction among officials and
private citizens in Bucharest.
In assuming personal direction of the rescue effort.
Ceausescu's actions betrayed his customary flair for self-
aggrandizement and also an unmistakable skill in making politi-
cal capital out of the disaster. Since his sudden return from
Africa after the earthquake, Ceausescu has been praised by the
Romanian media as the heroic organizer of the nationwide rescue
effort.
At the same time, however, Ceausescu has taken some
risks by antagonizing several officials and contributing to the
underlying mood of cynicism among the people. He has blatantly
criticized some local authorities in charge of rescue opera-
tions, and his promises to investigate the builders of the
houses that collapsed during the quake were bound to intimidate
subordinates. His contradictory actions, particularly in-trying
to undercut those evaluating the structural viability of dam-
aged buildings, have created confusion among individuals al-
ready evacuated.
The appointment of Ceausescu's wife to head the new
committee in charge of coordinating domestic and foreign aid
donations will spur charges of nepotism.
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The popular dissatisfaction that exists in Romania
is likely to increase as a result of earthquake-related prob-
lems. The possibility that the regime will use the earthquake
damage as an excuse to squeeze more work out of the people has
drawn numerous cynical comments from all sectors of the coun-
try. The party decision on March 3 to postpone implementation
of previous plans for the introduction of the five-day work
week appeared to justify these fears.
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The government's unexpected generosity toward those
worst affected by the earthquake, shown in the promise of free
apartments, furniture, and other amenities, including such
"luxury" items as radio and television sets, may at least in
part be designed to stem the dissatisfaction. 25X1:
CHINA: Railroads-Decisive Steps
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Late last month, measures to strengthen central con-
trol an to enforce labor discipline--essentially the measures
introduced in a 1975 central directive--were reaffirtaed. This
followed the military takeover of a major rail center at Cheng-
chou in mid-January and reinforced a central directive issued
in November calling for severe penalties for worker absenteeism.
There was apparently little or no growth in the rail
industry in 1976. During the second half of the year, normal
traffic was pre-empted by traffic engaged in earthquake relief
and reconstruction efforts. Intense political infighting also
hampered performance by aggravating the country's perennial la-
bor and administrative problems, which together had disrupted
operations in several regional and local rail centers in 1974
and early 1975.
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Peking's steps to strengthen control over the rail-
ways does not mean it is abandoning its general policies of de-
centralization. It may, however, presage greater central con-
trol over other critical industries--such as steel and coal--
that have been particularly vulnerable to political disruption
and in which performance has often as a result been disappoint-
ing.
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