NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029900010006-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 13, 2006
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: March 3, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Thursday March 3, 1977 CG NIDC 77-050C
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State Dept. review completed
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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Top Secret
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Intelli ence Dail Cable for Thursday, March 3, 1977.
The NID Cab e is or e purpose o in o
senior US of icials.
RHODESIA: Maneuvering
SOUTH AMERICA: Resentment of US
UK: Delays Direct Elections
CUBA: Trade Relations
EAST GERMANY: New Berlin Toll
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SWEDEN: Split in Communist Party
WORLD TIN: Producer-Consumer Meeting
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RHODESIA: Maneuvering
Legislation proposed by Rhodesian Prime Minister Smith
o repea some racial discrimination measures may be defeated by
the parliament. A vote on the bill is likely on Friday, and a
two-thirds majority of the full 66-member legislature is neces-
sary for approval. Twelve right-wing legislators from Smith's
ruling party have indicated their opposition, and 13 blacks who
say the measures do not go far enough have announced that they
will abstain.
The legislation includes a provision that would open
up o non-whites most of the land in the half of Rhodesia's total
area now reserved for whites. Smith proposed the measures as
part of his e:Efort to begin nE:w settlement talks with "moderate"
blacks.
In a session of parliament yesterday, former defense
minister Cowper announced that he was withdrawing his support
from the government. Cowper, who resigned his post last month
during a controversy over increased callups of civilians for
military duty, accused Smith of indecision and of adopting
watered-down measures.
Although legislative setbacks and open criticism of
Smith from members of his party are unusual, it seems unlikely
that the rightwingers will seek to oust Smith from his position.
No other white political figure seems to have sufficient stature
to pose a serious challenge to the Prime Minister.
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US policies on human rights and nuclear proliferation
are arousing deep resentment in southern South America. The US
stance on these issues seems certain to add to the already pro-
nounced tendency of Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, and to some extent
Brazil to draw closer together because of their common problems
and perceptions of the outside world.
//The US decision to reduce aid to Argentina and
Uruguay because of human rights abuses has drawn an angry reac-
tion in both Buenos Aires and Montevideo. Both governments an-
nounced their intention to refuse the lower levels of aid still
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available to them. Uruguay termed the US move unjustified inter-
ference in its internal affairs; both Argentina and Uruguay said
the action could aid the cause of subversion.//
//Brazil, already smarting over US efforts to
limit its access to foreign nuclear technology, is taking a dim
view of the cuts in aid to its neighbors. Though not directly
affected, the Brazilians undoubtedly see the reductions as an-
other example of US "intrusion" in the area's affairs.//
//Brazil's military-backed government, moreover,
may we e ieve that it too could come in for serious US pres-
sure on human rights.
IIS efforts to influence the Brazilians on the nuclear
issue also are having an unsettling effect in Argentina. Instead
of applauding a move that could conceivably arrest the nuclear
progress of their traditional Brazilian rivals, the Argentines
are expressing solidarity with Brazil. The Argentines obviously
realize that their own imports of nuclear equipment could make
them susceptible to similar pressures.
Argentina may see in the present situation an oppor-
tunity o rebuild its regional influence by capitalizing on re-
sentment of US efforts. In addition to expressing solidarity
with the Brazilians, Argentina is quietly suggesting itself as
an alternative source of nuclear know-how and natural uranium
for the region. Argentina's nuclear technology, though limited
by world standards, is the most advanced in the region and its
uranium is plentiful.
The Argentines are also reviving earlier proposals for
nuclear cooperation with Brazil and Chile, with Argentina playing
a central role. The idea may be hard for the Brazilians to accept,
but the Argentines seem serious about exploring it.
The sense of physical isolation from most of the world
t at as always existed in southern South American has been ac-
centuated in recent years by the growing distaste in the US and
in some European countries for the kinds of governments that hold
sway in the region. The latest US actions will increase this sense
of isolation.
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All the countries of the area are administered by con-
serva ive regimes that are run or dominated by the countries'
military establishments. Most of the regimes came into being in
response to real or perceived threats from the left, and all
justify their methods by citing a continuing threat from commu-
nism.
The leaders of these countries believe they are being .
a andoned by the US, the country that had frequentl warned them
in the ast of the dangers of communism. 25X1
UIC: Delays Direct Elections
//The British government decided last week to dc~lay for
three months the introduction of legislation on dire~~t elections
to the European Parliament. The decision reflects thE: growing
weakness of the Callaghan government in Parliament acid the fears
of Labor Party leaders that the issue will further ac/gravate di-
visions within the party.//
//The cabinet, strongly divided over this issue,. agreed last
week only to issue a white paper next month that wil~_ outline
various procedural options for the elections. Althoucfh a cabinet
spokesman reaffirmed the government's pledge to "use its best en-
deavors" to meet the spring 1978 target date set by the European
Community for the elections, the Labor government's failure to
move quickly on this issue could seriously undermine chances for
meeting the deadline.//
//The eight other EC members expect no problems in ratify-
ing direct elections bills and passing the necessary implement-
ing legislation. They, as well as the EC Commission, are likely
to bring substantial pressure on the Uh' to act in time.//
//The decision to issue the white paper should delay a fi-
nal vote on the direct elections bill at least until late summer.
As a constitutional issue, the bill must be debated by the House
of Commons sitting as a committee, thus making the measure par-
ticularly vulnerable to filibuster. The House of Lords also could
extensively revise the bill.//
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//Additionally, Conservative Party spokesmen, in pushing
for early action, have pointed out that boundaries must be set
for the 81 election districts following passage of the bill,
and that this will probably take several more months.//
//Although the government can probably count on enough Con-
servative and Liberal votes to assure passage of the bill, Labor
Party leaders are afraid that raising the issue now could pro-
voke a major split in their party. Six cabinet ministers are on
record as vigorously opposing direct elections to the European
Parliament, and the issue is likely to revive substantial anti-
EC feelings among Labor backbenchers in Parliament. The Labor
Party conference also came out strongly against direct elections
last year.//
IIf the British retain
their usual election sys em in representatives to the
European Parliament, the Conservative Party would probably win
a disproportionate majority of the UK's 8l seats.//
//The number of Labor seats would be greater under a pro-
portional representation system, but adoption of such a system
would only reinforce pressures from the Liberals and some minor
parties for the use of a similar scheme in elections to the
House of Commons.
CUBA: Trade Relations
//In the first full year of trade since the lifting
of US restrictions, Cuban purchases from the subsidiaries
abroad of US companies reached $213 million in 1976. Trade might
have been even higher if there had not been a severe hard-cur-
rency crunch in Cuba in the second half of the year. More than
two thirds of the trade was with US subsidiaries in Canada,
Argentina, and the UK.//
//Cuban purchases from US subsidiaries last year
were equa o 17 percent of estimated Cuban imports from the
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West. About three fifths was grain and the rest was manufactured
goods. US subsidiaries purchased $2.2 million in goods from
Cuba, mostly tobacco and molasses.//
//Cuba can now obtain most US products i~= wants
rom US subsidiaries abroad. The Cubans continue, how~wer, to
talk to US parent companies about trade possibilities if US-
Cuban commercial relations are normalized. Discussian:~ have
been held with at least 17 US companies in the past 18 months.//
//The Cubans apparently are trying to soften Ameri-
can usiness support for the US embargo and open the i1S marke
to Cuban sugar. Cuba plans a major expansion in sugar t~roduc-
tion during the next several years.
EAST GERP~lANY: New Berlin Toll
East Germany this month has begun charging a. "street
ee' of about $4.20 for nearly all automobiles that enter
East Berlin from West Berlin. The fee nearly doubles the cost
of a trip through the wall. Allied vehicles are not affected by
the East German measure.
An East German official defended the measure by noting
at is country imposes a similar fee on all other travelers
to East Germany. He said it would be "inconsistent with East
Germany's sovereignty and the status of its capital city" if
visitors to East Berlin continued to be exempt. The official
also declared that the step is not meant to "increase tensions."
This action is the latest in a series of East G r
e m
an
attempts since the beginning of the year to erode the special
status of East Berlin, over which the East Germans have long
claimed full and exclusive sovereign-ty. East Germany i,~ also
seeking to curtail Western contacts with its citizens, although
it is not yet clear whether the higher fee will cut do`an sig-
nificantly on traffic to East Berlin.
The East Germans will earn additional hard currency--
a ways in short supply in their country. The amount of hard cur-
rency that they will probably take in (about $2.5 mi111.on) sug-
gests, however, that economic considerations were not