NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029700010018-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 3, 2005
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: January 12, 1977
• Content Type: REPORT

IV AV AV AV AV AV AV AV AV AV 7
0
0
0
0
CIA-RDP79T00975A02970001 O 18-3
Appr,Mf 0 Release 200610.31-1 4F
NAME AND DRESS DATE INITIALS Top secret
(Security Classification)
DIRECT REPLY
DISPATCH
FILE
INFORMATION
PREPARE REPLY
RECOMMENDATION
RETURN
ACTION
APPROVAL
COMMENT
CONCURRENCE
REMARKS:
DATE
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Wednesday January 12, 1977 CG NIDC 77-009C
1
1
State Department review completed
w
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Top Secret
0
0
nt
V
Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975A02JC7000U1 018-3
Aw All1w 14dw Aw All1w Aw AJ
 25X1 Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010018-3
Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010018-3
 Approved For R$
25X1
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday January 12, 1977.
P he NID Ca e: is for a purpose ot Informing
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Arms Collection
Page 1
TERRORISM:
RHODESIA:
Daud Release and Reaction
Reaction to Lusaka Meeting
Page 2
Page 3
USSR: Kulikov Appointment
Page 6
EAST - WEST GERMANY: Continuing Tensions
Page 8
VIETNAM: Expanding Trade Relations
Page 9
USSR-MOROCCO: Improving Relations
Page 10
AUSTRIA: Missiles Procurement
Page 11
Approved For Felease 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975W9700010018-3 25X1
 Approved For 9
LEBANON: Arms Collection
Syrian Chief of Staff Shihabi told US Ambassador Mur-
phy in Damascus on Monday that Syria regards today's highly
publicized deadline for collecting arms from combatants in
Lebanon as only the beginning of an arduous process.
The quadripartite committee of Syria, Egypt, Saudi
Arabia, and Kuwait--established in October to oversee the Leba-
non cease-fire--announced last week that all heavy weapons
would be collected and that all brigades of the Palestine Lib-
eration Army would leave Lebanon by midnight tonight. Iraqi
regular troops remaining in Lebanon are also to leave under
the new order.
I I The arms collection. issue has been the subject of in-
ensive negotiation for more than a month among the quadripar-
tite committee, the Palestinians and, to a lesser extent, the
Christians. After strenuous resistance, the Palestinians agreed
in principle in late December to permit the collection of their
heavy armament at central storage points guarded by the Arab
peacekeeping force.
Syria has no illusions about the ease with which th
arms collection will proceed. Shihabi told the ambassador that
he expects all combat units to lie about the number of arms
they have on hand and said he anticipates some fighting as
Syrian forces carry out a massive arms sweep.
Shihabi would not predict how long Syria will need to
clear out arms caches, but he indicated that the Syrians know
where 80 percent of the arms are hidden and are determined to
clean them out.
25X1
Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T0097
 Approved For Rel
In an apparent effort to ease US concern about possi-
ble Palestinian cross-border raids into Israel, Shihabi told
the ambassador that he believes Palestinian morale is so low
in the south that such raids are unlikely.
I IHe expressed optimism that a reconstituted Lebanese
army wou soon be able to control the Palestinians in the
south, but he belied this optimism by acknowledging that he
could foresee the need for Syrian peacekeeping forces there if
the situation deteriorates.
//Fatah terrorist Abu Daud left France yesterday
for Algeria after a French court, citing legal technicalities,
rejected Israeli and West German requests that he be held un-
til each country could make a formal request for extradition.//
//The release of Daud, who was alleged to have
masterminded the massacre of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Mu-
nich Olympic Games, brought strong protests from Israel and
West Germany.//
criticizing the release on the grounds the court's action
would undermine recent efforts in Western Europe and at the
//The West German government issued a statement
Approved For Ro
25X1
 Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T0097f
//The Israeli reaction will probably be limited
to strong diplomatic protests and the temporary recall of
their ambassador from Paris. Israeli officials almost certainly
recognized that there was almost no chance that Daud would be
extradited to Israel but probably hoped that he would be held
and possibly even turned over to the West Germans. Daud's re-
lease by the French government, however, forced the Rabin gov-
ernment to strongly underline its unhappiness with Paris' ac-
tion.//
RHODESIA: Reaction to Lusaka Meeting
The decision of the front-line African presidents to
give full support to the Patriotic Front alliance of Joshua
Nkomo and Robert Mugabe has triggered a bitter response from
rival Rhodesian nationalists. Both Bishop fluzorewa's African
National Council and Ndabaningi Sithole have denounced the de-
cision, announced by the presidents after their meeting in
Lusaka last weekend.
25X1
Approved For R Iease 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T0097 A029700010018-3
 Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T0097 029700010018-3 25X1
Prime Minister Smith has been exploring the possibility
of ngotiating a separate settlement with "moderate" Rhodesian
blacks, which would exclude Mugabe and other "militants" who
are part of the Patriotic Front. The outcome of the Lusaka
meeting probably will lead Smith again to approach Muzorewa
and perhaps Sithole.//
For their part, the front-line presidents appar-
ently were frustrated by the repeated failure of their efforts
to bring unity to the Rhodesian nationalists. It is not clear
how far the presidents intend to go in promoting the Patriotic
Front, but they may try to get the Organization of African Unity
and other countries to back Nkomo and Mugabe. The presidents
seem to believe that Sithole has little support either inside
or outside of Rhodesia, and that if international support and
financial aid for Muzorewa are reduced his standing among
Rhodesia's blacks will decline.
Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00971A029700010018-3
 25X1 Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010018-3
Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010018-3
 Approved For Re
USSR: Kulikov Appointment
The appointments of Soviet General Viktor G. Kulikov
as commander in chief of Warsaw Pact forces and of General Niko-
lay V. Ogarkov to succeed Kulikov as chief of the Soviet General
Staff are likely to strengthen the hand of Defense Minister
Ustinov in managing the armed forces.
The transfer of Kulikov to the Warsaw Pact command is
at least nominally a step upward; it could mean a promotion to
marshal for him. His predecessor, Marshal Yakubovsky, who died
in November, received this promotion even before the announce-
ment of his appointment as commander of the Pact forces in 1967.
The rank of marshal, however, has not been given to a military
officer since 1968. Kulikov now holds the highest combined-arms
field command in the Soviet armed forces. In the event of war,
he would receive his orders from the Supreme High Command through
the General Staff. In recent years, the Warsaw Pact commander
has filled in for the minister of defense in the latter's ab-
sence.
When Defense Minister Grechko died last April, Kulikov
appeared to be a leading contender to replace him, but Ustinov,
a civilian, was appointed. Grechko held the Warsaw Pact commander
assignment before becoming defense minister, and this move for
Kulikov may be preparation for the defense minister's position
in the event a professional officer succeeds Ustinov.
Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T009754029700010018-3
 Approved For Rele
//Kulikov's transfer could be interpreted either
as an in ication of his potential to succeed Ustinov as defense
minister or as lending weight to reports that he is not on good
terms with Ustinov. There are suggestions that Kulikov was un-
happy with the elevation to defense minister last spring of a
civilian, and he may have other enemies in the political hier-
archy.//
//Ogarkov, in contrast, is reputed to be on excel-
lent terms with Ustinov. His role as the ranking Soviet military
officer during much of the SALT I negotiations is said to have
contributed to this relationship. Formerly a first deputy chief
of the General Staff, Ogarkov has been a deputy minister of de-
fense since 1974, apparently with responsibilities for planning
and for inter-service coordination. He has reportedly been work-
ing closely with Ustinov on a daily basis.//
As chief of the General Staff Ogarkov will continue
to advise Ustinov on various issues. With his new assignment,
Ogarkov becomes one of three first deputy defense ministers;
Kulikov and General S. L. Sokolov, who has broad managerial re-
sponsibilities at the ministry, are the other two.
The five-week delay in filling the Warsaw Pact position,
even though Yakubovsky was known to be terminally ill for months,
may have been due in part to the formal requirement for consulta-
tion with Pact members. The delay may also suggest that the new
appointments were the subject of considerable deliberation in
Moscow.
//With Ogarkov's appointment, the General
Staff may turn increasingly to systems analysis and similar
modern managerial techniques. Ustinov, whose experience is in
defense industry, has reportedly been critical of past military
Approved For Relerase 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0R9700010018-3
 Approved For R ease 2006 03117 : - 029700010018-3 25X1
management practices. Ogarkov's familiarity with SALT issues
and rapport with Ustinov suggest that the defense minister may
now be able to press more effectivel for changes.//
EAST - WEST GERMANY: Continuing Tensions
The East German leadership yesterday gave another
indication of its increasing unease over the numbers of East
German citizens applying for exit permits to West Germany.
I I East German security police began turning away pri-
vate visitors attempting to call at the West German mission in
East Berlin. The action was based on a 1963 regulation that
prohibits private East German citizens from visiting foreign
missions without permission from the Foreign Ministry.
East Germany has conducted "spot checks" on visitors
in the past, but West German officials in East Berlin feel
that their office has been sealed off from the public for the
first time since it opened in 1974. A West German official has
said that his government considers the matter "extremely seri-
ous" and has already issued a protest. Bonn's senior represen-
tative intends to confer with Chancellor Schmidt today on the
problem, but the West Germans will find it difficult to take
any effective countermeasures.
I The East German action follows several similar moves
including a sharp warning to intellectuals not to make use of
West German media in criticizing the regime: the ouster of a
West German correspondent who had long been a thorn in the re-
gime's side, and an intensified press campaign against the
Schmidt government.
Ithese measures s oul be
an "increasingly conser-
vative and nationalistic" West Germany. They have hinted that
East Berlin is considering further distancing itself from Bonn,
even in the economic sphere, in order to lessen the impact of
West German influence on East German domestic problems.
Approved For RoIease 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0?9700010018-3
 Approved For
I I As far as the East German populace is concerned, the
move will be viewed as one more indication that any attempt to
emigrate to West Germany will be made as frustrating and dif-
ficult by the regime as possible.
I I Both countries are to serve as joint hosts next week
tor the 'first West German photographic exhibit to be held in
East Berlin--an event which will provide the first immediate
indication of the impact the latest East German action has had
on bilateral relations.
VIETNAM: Expanding Trade Relations
//A Vietnamese trade delegation visited Fin--
.an last month to discuss a long-term trade agreement, and last
week Vietnam invited the Philippine Chamber of Commerce to send
a trade mission to Hanoi.//
//Vietnam has surplus labor and exploitable
resources but lacks the capital and technology to develop them
It hopes to attract technology from Finland
//Vietnam is interested in Philippine sugar and co-
conut oil, as well as in iron, steel, fertilizers, and chemicals.
Vietnam could be an inexpensive source for coal and phosphates
for the Philippines.//
//The Vietnamese are establishing more eco-
nomic incs in part to reduce their dependence on the USSR and
China.//
Vietnam yesterday obtained approval of its first loan--
or $36 million--from the International Monetary Fund, which will
25X1
Approved For R Iease 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975 029700010018-3
 Approved For
ease its hard-currency payments problems. Vietnamese membership
in the IMF, previously held by the Saigon government, was trans-
ferred to the unified state last July.
USSR-MOROCCO: Improving Relations
Soviet-Moroccan relations are improving after reach-
ing a low point last year during the dispute between Morocco
and Algeria over Western Sahara.
//In the past month, several developments have
--A Soviet military delegation arrived in Rabat on Decem-
ber 4 to discuss the sale of T-62 tanks.
--A Soviet geological delegation arrived on December 14
to discuss a continuation of Soviet prospecting for copper
and oil.
--The USSR received approval for an Aeroflot stop in Casa-
blanca for flights to Africa.//
I I Morocco's willingness to go ahead withh the talks of
geoiogical cooperation is a reversal. Morocco had canceled
previous discussions because of the Soviet inclination to side
with Algeria in the dispute over Western Sahara.
I The Soviets nonetheless have had problems with Algeria's
espousa of radical third world causes, and they are interested
in Moroccan phosphates as a supplement to the USSR's domestic
production. Hassan, however, may not be willing to allow Soviet
participation in the exploitation of Moroccan phosphate reserves.
Approved Fora Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T0097PA029700010018-3
 Approved For a ease 200113117101331,1-11, I'll - 029700010018-3 25X1
The King, while wary of Soviet intentions, may think
he can use his increasing contacts with the USSR as a lever in
extracting more from the US. Better relations with the USSR
would also deflate Arab charges that Morocco is too closely
linked with the US, and could encourage a more forthcomin at-
titude from Algeria. 25X1
Defense Minister Luetgendorf's recommendations on
Austrian procurement of missiles for national defense have
triggered a storm of protest. Chancellor Kreisky has publicly
criticized Luetgendorf, whose views clash directly with Mos-
cow's insistence that Vienna adhere to a clause in the Austrian
State Treaty of 1955 that prohibits missile procurement.
In an interview last week with a West German news-
paper Luetgendorf branded the clause as "obsolete." Austrian
officials have privately agreed with this assessment for years
and have attempted several times to convince the Soviets, who
are signatories to the State Treaty, that Vienna should be al-
lowed to purchase short-range missiles for defensive purposes.
I I Most political leaders and even some of Luetgendorf's
subordinates in the Defense Ministry are worried, however,
that his frankness will create serious problems with the East
European regimes. Their main concern is the need to preserve
the integrity of the State Treaty, which, along with Vienna's
unilateral declaration of neutrality, serves as the basis for
the nation's foreign policy.
The Soviets have not lodged a protest against Luet-
gendorf so far. Their concern over what they perceive to be
Austrian deviousness on this issue has nevertheless grown
since last October, when a missile from an Austrian fighter
plane was accidently fired on take-off.
This incident demonstrates that the missile clause
has an a ement of unreality. The Austrians purchased ground-
to-ground and air-to-ground missiles from the Czechs in 1957
without encountering Soviet objections at that time. Foreign
Minister Pahr has referred to this purchase as sufficient rea-
son for rejecting the Soviet position.
Approved Fora Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T0097PA029700010018-3
 Approved For Rel
I I Chancellor Kreisky probably has too much at stake in
his own detente" policy to push for a liberal interpretation
of the missile clause. He is already up to his neck in an em-
barrassing controversy with Belgrade over other provisions in
the State Treaty that deal with cultural rights for Slavic mi-
nority groups inside Austria.
25X1
Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975Ag29700010018-3
 Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010018-3
0 Top Secret
(Security Classification) 0
f
.0 0
1
1
1
1
1
1
Top Secrete 0
(Securit ffFM ttlo? Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29700010018-3
'Aw 'Aw 'Aw 'Aw 'Aw Amr Adw Adw Adw Aj