NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010032-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 32
• Publication Date: November 18, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Thursday November 18, 1976 CI NIDC 76-270C
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Daily Cable for Thursday November 18, 1976.
IT lie NID a e is tor trie purpose informing
senior US o icials.
USSR-YUGOSLAVIA: Brezhnev Visit
BRAZIL: Municipal Elections
CHINA: Agricultural Trade
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I One of the terrorists who attacked a hotel in Amman,
Jordan yesterday reportedly has confessed that the group was
trained in Iraq and infiltrated into Jordan by Iraqi authorities.
Jordan last night expelled four Iraqi diplomats to protest the
attack.
I A spokesman for the terrorists announced during the
attack at the four were members of the same "Black June" group
that attacked a hotel in Damascus on September 26.
This group, which takes its name from the month Syria
made its first big military push into Lebanon, reportedly de-
manded that Jordan condemn the Lebanese cease-fire agreement
recently endorsed by the Arab heads of state in Riyadh and Cairo.
Jordan did not play a significant role in those negotiations,
but has strongly backed Syria's actions in Lebanon and has long
been a priority target of fedayeen and other Arab radicals.
The "Black June" group is a creation of dissident
Fatah leader Sabri al-Banna, who for several years has operated
from Baghdad with Iraqi support. He cooperates with the radical
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and with non-Arab
terrorists, including the Latin American "Carlos" and the Japan-
ese Red Army.
These groups receive operational and financial support
from Libya as well as Iraq. Both governments have opposed the
moderate Arabs' endorsement of Syria's victory over the Pales-
tinians in Lebanon, and are willing to back obstructionist and
punitive activities by the fedayeen.
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I IThe communique issued after Soviet party leader Brezh- 25x1
nev's o: icial visit to Yugoslavia this week shows signs of
hard bargaining, but the Tito regime is no doubt pleased with
the results.
I IThe key element in the text, from Belgrade's perspec-
tive, is rezhnev's reaffirmation of Soviet promises made in
1955, 1956, and 1971 to respect the Yugoslavs' "separate road"
to socialism. The renewed promises by Brezhnev will probably
receive wide attention in the Yugoslav media. The Tito regime
needs them to build popular confidence in the future.
The communique described the atmosphere surrounding
the talks as one of "cordiality, mutual understanding, and mu-
tual respect." The word "trust" that Tito permitted in the com-
munique after his meeting with Brezhnev in Kiev three years
ago was missing. The omission seems to reflect Yugoslav wari-
ness--revived in 1974 by a resurgence of pro-Soviet subversion--
of Moscow's intentions toward Yugoslavia.
Another basic element in the document--reportedly
sought by the Soviets--is a mutual pledge to end polemics over
differences between the two countries. The argumentative Yugo-
slavs may find it difficult to abide long by the letter of this
agreement.
The Soviets are undoubtedly pleased that Belgrade
agreed to expand party-government contacts and cooperation.'
Belgrade, however, managed to insert the word "voluntary" into
a statement on the standards for cooperation in the Communist
movement as a hedge against imposition of Moscow's views of
discipline in foreign affairs.
I IThe communique did not directly refer to military re- 25x1
lations, but its broad phrasing on comprehensive bilateral co-
operation suggests the topic may have been discussed. We have
no information as to whet r Bzhnev requested increased naval
access to Yugoslav ports. 25X1
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The Spanish parliament may vote today on constitu-
tional reforms that could set the political course for post-
Franco Spain.
Government officials still appear confident that the
bill, which would put an end to the largely appointed parliament
of the Franco era and provide for a freely elected bicameral
legislature, will obtain the necessary two-thirds majority of
the 531 members in the Cortes.
We believe the vote will be close, largely because the
government is apparently determined to push ahead without com-
promise on several key issues that have been opposed by a broad
spectrum of rightists. Two provisions are particularly conten-
tious:
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--Permitting the constitution to be amended by a simple
majority in the new legislature; rightists are insisting
on a two-thirds majority.
--Election of legislators by a system of proportional rep-
resentation; rightists are pushing for direct elections.
I I The government is trying to force a vote on the entire
bill be re considering its provisions. It is worried that ca-
pitulation on these issues could jeopardize the participation
of the opposition in the political process.
I IOn the other hand, the newly formed Popular Alliance,
which is led by former interior minister Fraga and other minis-
ters of the Franco era, has committed itself to seeking a com-
promise on these issues and stands to lose face if the bill
goes through unaltered.
An alliance spokesman said yesterday that his group
of more than 100 deputies would move to block the bill unless
the voting procedure was changed.
I If the rightist alliance were to vote as a bloc
against the bill, it--along with the 90 or so ultra-rightists
who will vote "no" come what may--could almost certainly block
passage. In that case, King Juan Carlos would probably dissolve
parliament and go directly to the people with a referendum.
The Popular Alliance is more likely to split, with
die-hard rightists voting against the bill and the more moder-
ate members going along with the government to avoid the dangers
inherent in dissolving the parliament.
If the bill passes, the government will immediately
begin preparations for the mandatory national referendum to con-
firm the parliament's decision. It would probably be held in
late December, with the le islative election following in March
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or April. F 25X1
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BRAZIL: Municipal Elections
We expect that the pro-government party in Brazil will 25x1
win ease y the nationwide municipal elections being held this
week, but the country's leaders will be watching closely the
performance of the opposition party.
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Earlier this year President Geisel described the elec-
tions as a national plebiscite on his administration, and his
recent campaign activities have attracted international atten-
tion to what normally is a minor political event.
The official results probably will not be known for
several days, but the opposition appears to be leading in the
major cities, where its political support is strongest. The pro-
government party is considered ahead in the interior and rural
areas.
I I The government will win a majority of the contests
for mayors and councilmen as a result of its superior national
organization, recently enacted campaign restrictions, and the
fact that the opposition was unable to field candidates in ap-
proximately 1,000 smaller municipalities. The military-backed
regime is concerned, however, that its majority of municipal
offices may be cut from 90 percent, won in 1972, to around 70
percent.
I f Geisel is embarrassed by the outcome, he
may make major changes in the electoral laws reorganize the
party system, or restructure his cabinet.
More significantly Geisel has made the municipal elec-
tions a test of his policies. If the pro-government party does
well, the current uneasiness within _the conservative military
and business circles that constitute his most important con-
stituency should be reduced. If not, Geisel will almost certainly
be under strong pressure to reimpose authoritarian political
controls and to regulate the national economy even m or strin-
gently.
CHINA: Agricultural Trade
rop conditions have not been good in China this
year, and Peking is trying to line up shipments of foreign
agricultural products at attractive prices.
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I Australia has sold China 500,000 tons of wheat for 25x1
delivery between February and June 1977. On October 7, China
announced that it intends to continue buying Canadian wheat.
A delegation from the Canadian Wheat Board will be in Peking
tomorrow. China has also purchased 6,000 tons of soybean oil
from Brazil.
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