NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010030-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 1, 2008
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: November 17, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

1
1
1
1
25X1
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
1
1
1
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
wAdnQsda iTavembe ' 17., 1976 _CI__~TWC 76-269C
w
State Dept. review
completed.
"I
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
'Aar Aff Aff Aff Aff Aff Aff Aff Aff
1
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1 25X1
National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday November 17, 1976.
The NID Cable is for the purpose ot intorming
CHILE: Prisoners
GREECE: Student Demonstration
ALBANIA: Personnel Shifts
USSR: Export Policy Shift
EC-MEDITERRANEAN: Trade
25X1
25X1
Page 2
Page 3
Page 4
Page 4
Page 6
Page 10
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1 25X1
The military government's decision yesterday to re- 25X1
lease 3 persons imprisoned under the state of siege is a
major gesture designed to diminish international criticism of
Chile's violation of human rights.
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
In making the announcement, a junta spokesman said
that the 18 other political prisoners "too dangerous to be
freed in Chile" would be expelled if another country would ac-
cept them. The spokesman said two of the prisoners--Communist
.party chief Luis Corvalan and former Allende coalition senator
Jorge Montes--would be released only if the USSR and Cuba would
reciprocate by freeing two prominent prisoners. The Chileans
called on world opinion to pressure the USSR and Cuba to take
such reciprocal action.
By nearly sweeping the jails clear at this time, the
Pinochet government probably expects to lessen the impact of a
critical report recently circulated by the UN human rights in-
vestigating group as well as hoping to improve its image with
the new US administration. It also is a tacit admisUNCOD-'at in-
ternal security is no longer a problem.
Leftist students are likely to march on the US embassy 25X1
in Athens today despite government efforts to dissuade them. If
both sides remain adamant, there will probably be some violence,
but Greek security forces should be able to protect the em-
bassy.
The march is in commemoration of a student uprising in 25X1
1973 that brought down one junta which. subsequently was replaced
by a more repressive one. Some 34 students died in the uprising,
one of the few instances of mass resistance to military rule in
Greece.
The march to the US embassy called for by the commu- 25x1
nist- and leftist-dominated student union is a reflection of
the standard leftist charge, believed by many other Greeks,
that the US installed and supported the two juntas and was also
responsible for their Cyprus policy.
The government seems determined to prevent the march- 25x1
ers from approaching the embassy, but if it should back down,
it could cost the government some support among its conserva-
tive supporters. 25X1
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010030-1
A large number of personnel shifts this month in the
Albanian party and government apparently completes a three-year
effort by party leader Hoxha and Premier Shehu to eliminate all
opposition to their rigid, isolationist policy in foreign af-
fairs and austere self-reliance in the domestic sector.
More than half the members of the previous 68-member
Central Committee have been replaced since the party congress
in Tirana early this month. The new body has been expanded to
77, including 24 newcomers. Twenty-five of the 38 candidate
members, and 18 of the influential 21-member party control and
auditing commission, are also new. Hoxha and Shehu have now re-
placed a quarter of the ruling Politburo, half of the cabinet,
and the entire hierarchy of the armed forces.
On Saturday, the government. announced the ouster of
two deputy premiers. One was assigned to "other tasks," and
the other returned to a ministerial post he last held in 1966.
Pali Miska, minister of industry and mining, was
named to fill one of the vacant deputy chairman positions.
Miska has been considered a rising star since he catapulted
to the Politburo as a,full member in 1975 after a purge of the
economic ministries. He has evidently performed well. He has
played a key managerial role in the completion of the giant
steel-processing plant at Elbasan--one of the largest develop-
mental projects in Albania--which was built with Chinese tech-
nical and economic assistance.
USSR: Export Policy Shift
The USSR has apparently given up hope of meeting its
additional hard-currency needs from a major expansion in exports
of manufactured goods to the West for the time being.
On at least two occasions last spring, then - Deputy
Minister of Foreign Trade Alkhimov reportedly indicated that
the USSR would have to defer plans to favor exports of manu-
factured goods over raw materials. This shift in export strategy
was confirmed recently by an official of the Institute of US
and Canadian Studies in conversations held with US officials.
25X1
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
Soviet interest in stressing manufactured goods ex- 25x1
only 4 percent of total sales to the West. 25X1
ports ha intensified since 1973, culminating in the priorities
established at the 25th Party Congress held last March. The
subsequent policy shift almost certainly has been prompted by
Moscow's realization that its need for rapid expansion of hard-
currency exports can be met only by boosting sales of rawmate-
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
Recent statements by Chinese officials make clear that
Peking intends to put renewed emphasis on foreign trade. The
impact of any new policies, however, probably will not be felt
until the second half of next year.
Foreign trade will thus not play a much larger role
in the Chinese economy this year than in 1975. Currently, trade
amounts to only 5 percent of gross national product.
Peking wants to avoid a repetition of the trade defi-
cits with the West that occurred from 1973 to 1975. This year,
China's trade balance will be in surplus as exports show modest
gains and imports decline. Most important, the hard-currency
deficit on non-Communist trade should fall to about $100 million,
compared with the $1-billion deficit average in 1974-1975.
China is likely to return to the policy of 1972 of
emphasizing trade to promote economic development, but will key
import growth to export performance. An Italian delegation was
recently told that China's policy on credits is unchanged. Sup-
plier credits of up to five years will be used for major pur-
chases; the Chinese will not seek direct loans or long-term
credits.
In the past few weeks the Chinese press has been en-
thusiastic about foreign trade, widely quoting Chairman Mao's
statement of 1949 on China's desire to increase trade as a means
of developing production. Trade officials have been discussing
trade expansion at meetings with visiting economic groups--in-
cluding one with the National Council for US-China Trade in
which China's need for purchases of capital goods and technology
was highlighted.
The controversy between radicals and moderates over
foreign trade policy apparently stalled the drafting of the new
five-year plan that was to begin this year. Although foreign
trade organizations--particularly the one handling imports of
whole plants and technology--remained active throughout the
year, uncertainty about the overall plan undoubtedly constrained
trade decisions.
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010030-1 25X1
Revisions of the five-year plan are reportedly under
way, including adjustments in import requirements due to earth-
quake damage, but China's trade balance in 1977 is not expected
to show any serious deterioration as a result.
China will continue to import agricultural products.
Purchases of some industrial commodities, such as metals, may
pick up, but imports of fertilizer will decline as imported
plants begin production next year. Shipments under previous con-
tracts are expected to decline as plants are completed, and de-
liveries under new plant contracts would not begin until 1978.
Imports of capital goods and technology will be aimed at devel-
oping sectors of the economy that in the long run will allow
import substitution.
With criticism of raw material exports by radicals now
muted, China may seek to boost crude oil sales. Negotiations on
a long-term oil contract with Japan--China's best potential
market--may be reopened. Another price increase by the organiza-
tion of Petroleum Exporting Countries could spur foreign interest
in Chinese crude oil if China does not follow the OPEC boost
dollar-for-dollar.
While non-oil export opportunities will continue to
improve with the increase in Western demand, shortages of many
commodities offered at the recent Canton Fair sug est that ex-
port supplies may be a problem early in the year.
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
Iq
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
//Approval by the EC this week of draft trade and
aid accords with Egypt, Jordan, and Syria, and new protocols
supplementing the community's trade agreement of 1975 with Is-
rael bring the EC close to its goal of attaining the compre-
hensive Mediterranean policy that was first suggested by France
in 1972.//
V/Both Israel and the Arab states were seeking
better terms and more money from the EC, but they will prob-
ably accept the current offer--which the EC insists is non-
negotiable--thus paving the way for signature of the agreements
by year's end.//
//The EC hoped that an agreement could be simul-
taneously concluded with Lebanon--the only remaining Mediter-
ranean state seeking an accord with the Community. The unstable
political situation in that country, however, has forced a
halt to bilateral talks.//
K/The agreements with the eastern Mediterranean
states--modeled after accords signed with Algeria, Tunisia,
and Morocco earlier this year--provide preferential tariff re-
ductions for most Arab exports of industrial goods, minerals,
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
 Approved For Release 2008/07/01 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
and certain agricultural products. They also include protocols
on technical, economic, and environmental cooperation and es-
tablish joint committees to implement the agreements.//
//Throughout the Mediterranean negotiations, the
EC has sougftt to maintain a balance in its treatment a supplementary of sraeli
and Arab interests. For this reason, approval pp fmI
financial and cooperation protocols with Israel was delayed
until the negotiations with the eastern Mediterranean states
were completed. EC officials, nevertheless, are quick to point
out that the Community took into consideration Israel's higher
level of economic development in determining the degree of pref-
erential treatment extended.//
//The Community will provide Israel with $33 mil-
ssistance over five years at market rates.
l
i
a
a
lion in financ
Egypt, Syria, and Jordan will receive approximately $190 mil-
lion, $70 million, and $50 million respectively, but at more
favorable terms. Under the cooperation protocol, the EC has
agreed to promote Israeli exports to the EC, encourage private
investment, and increase bilateral cooperation in such areas
as industry, agriculture, fishing, science, and technology.//
reements with the Arab states include a
a
Th
g
//
e
non-discrimination clause prohibiting the participating states
from boycotting individual countries or firms that do business
with Israel. The Arab states will presumably continue their
past practice. of unilaterally notifying the EC that the non-
discriminatory clause does not abrogate domestic laws concern-
ing essential security interests. The practical effect of the
clause will therefore be nullified.//
ressure from the Israelis, EC officials
it
e p
/Desp
have refused to consider more effective action to counter the
boycott--along the lines now being proposed in the US and Can-
ada. They are reluctant to take any action which might impede
the further growth of EC-Arab trade, and argue there is no evi-
d Israeli commercial
dence that the boycott has serf ^~~~ ~~ harme
relations with the EC.
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
 Adw Adw AMW Aw IdEr IdWIF IAW IdEr
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0 0
0
0
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
jar jAr "Jar
Approved For Release 2008/07/01: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29500010030-1