NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 10, 2007
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: November 12, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

ACTION
APPROVAI.
COMMENT
~provecf~Release ZQ07/05T'f~CIA-RDP7HT0097~AUZ95000'f0UZ2-0
PREPARE REPIV
RECDMMENOATION
RETURN
Top Secret ii = ~
(Security Classification)
0
1
1
1
1
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday November 12, 1976 CI NIDC 76-265C
??I.+`~ r~~ri ~~ ~~ ~:~:~ i?:'I~i- (Securit
w
1
25X1
Top Secret
Approved For Release 2007/05110 :CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For Release 2007/05110 :CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
Q
Approved For Release 2007/05110 :CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For
National Intelli ence Dail Cable for Frida November 12 1976.
25X1
T e NID Cab e is for the purpose of informing 25x1
senior US o icials.
ANGOLA: Anti-guerrilla Operation
LEBANON: Situation Report
Page 2
Page 3
Page 4
PORTUGAL-EC: Membership Bid
Page 5
UK: Government Setback
Page 8
EC: Delays in Assistance to UK
Page $
FINLAND: Military Equipment Purchases
Page 9
UK: Nationalization Legislation
Page 10
Approved For Release 2007/05110: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For Release 2007/05110 :CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
Q
Approved For Release 2007/05110 :CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For
ANGOLA: Anti-guerrilla Operation
The government offensive against National Union guer- 25x1
rillas in southern Angola appears to be the most ambitious ef-
fort by the Neto regime to establish control over an area of
the country in which it has no ethnic or political links.
Approved', For Release 2007/05110: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For
//The attacking forces are said to be concen-
tra e aroun ocadas and between the Cunene River and Pereira
de Eca. Their present objective is to reach Cuamato.//
South African press reports assert that the
guerrillas are being pushed back into southeastern Angola. The
government forces apparently have sealed the Angola-Namibia
border, sharply reducing the flow of refugees across it. //The
National Union's supply lines to South African military sources
in northern Namibia also may have been cut in the process.//
The South Africans are undoubtedly watching the fight- 25x1
ing in southern Angola with apprehension. They have been count-
ing on the National Union to keep Angolan government forces on
the defensive in that area in the hope of slowing down SWAPO
preparations for an intensified insurgency in Namibia.
The offensive, however successful, almost certainly 25x1
will not liquidate the National Union of Jonas Savimbi. The
guerrillas will simply fade deeper into the southern An plan
countr side where the can count on local support 25x1
LEBANON: Situation Report
Syrian peacekeeping forces resumed their advance into 25x1
ecru o ay, where they are to take up positions along the main
confrontation line.
The capital remains fairly quiet, although some snip- 25x1
and artillery exchanges persist. In the North, the situation
in
g
around Tripoli is still tense, and in the south the Israelis
yesterday acknowledged shelling some Palestinian positions from
across the border. Both the Israelis and Christians have been
periodically bombarding Bint Jubayl, the one remaining Palestin-
ian foothold in the extreme r da s to revent the Pales-
tinians from reinforcing it. 25x1
Approved For Release 2007/05110: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For R ease - 29500010022-0 2sx1
In a move apparently designed to give the impression
that Egypt now enjoys full political freedom, President Sadat
last night announced that the three subdivisions of the Arab
Socialist Union, heretofore Egypt's only legal political party,
would become separate parties in their own right.
Sadat stipulated., however, that the Arab Socialist
Union should control the new parties' financial resources and
assure that their activities do not "undermine the country's
unity."
Approved For Release 2007/05110: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For Re 029500010022-0 25x1
Sadat was addressing the first session of the People's
Assembly elected last week. During the election campaign, the
three organizations of the Arab Socialist Union--a leftist and
a rightist group and a pro-government centrist group--separately
sponsored candidates in Egypt's first experiment with multiple
political organizations.
5adat has over the past few years taken several meas-
25X1
ured steps toward political and social liberalization, but he
has exerted careful, if indirect, control over the full expres-
sion of political dissent. The new parties will be little more
independent as parties than the were as rou s controlled b
the Arab Socialist Union.
PORTUGAL-EC: Membership Bid
//Portugal has reaffirmed its intention to seek
ear y a mission to the EC despite renewed indications that the
Community prefers to hold off until the Portuguese economy has
stabilized.//
Approved For Release 2007/05110: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For R ease - 5A029500010022-0 2sx1
//Prime Minister Soares plans to submit a formal
membership bid after he has toured the EC capitals, probably
early next year. At a congress of his Socialist Party last
month, he defended Portugal's drive for admission on the grounds
that:
--Portugal must look to the Community for help in its eco-
nomic reconstruction now that its colonial ties have been
severed.
--The three leading political parties strongly support the
move; only the Communists are opposed.
--The fraternal ties the Socialist Party has established
with its counterparts in EC member countries should faci-
litate the negotiation of favorable membership terms.//
//Soares believes local elections. scheduled for
next mont will provide further evidence of Portugal's commit-
ment to democracy and strengthen its membership credentials.
//EC members are apprehensive about bringing Por-
tuga into t e Community. At a recent meeting in Lisbon, EC
Commission officials said that the Portuguese economy should be
stabilized before a formal membership bid is considered.//
//Because of the seriousness of these difficulties
an e poor prospects for improvement in the near .term, the
Commission suggested that Portugal agree to a pre-membership
transition period. The Commission argues that even though such
a formula would postpone full membership, Portugal's immediate
political need to prove its acceptability to the West Europeans
would be satisfied, while its economy would have more time to
adjust to the demands of full membership.//
//The Commission proposed a similar arrangement
for Greece earlier this year, but concern about Turkey's atti-
tude led the EC foreign ministers to reject it. The Nine may
be more willing to consider the proposal in Portugal's case.
Some members--particularly France--believe that too great a
strain would be placed on Community resources by incorporating
Portugal, whose economy is weaker than Greece's. West Germany
and the UK on the other hand stron 1 support Portuguese ac-
cession.
Approved For Release 2007/05110: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For Release 2007/05110 :CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
Q
Approved For Release 2007/05110 :CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For
//The Callaghan government suffered a significant
defeat in the House of Commons early this morning following the
surprising legislative defection of right-wing Labor members
of Parliament.//
/We have no information as yet that Prime Minis-
ter Callaghan intends to call for an immediate vote of confi-
dence to erase the stain of defeat. Earlier this year then.-
prime minister Wilson recovered from an embarrassing parliamen-
tary defeat caused by leftist defections by calling for and
winning a confidence vote.//
//If Callaghan chooses this same course, there
wi e in ense pressure from fellow Labor members of Parlia-
ment as well as from powerful trade union leaders on the rebels
to return to the fold.//
//Callaghan's setback came on a government attempt
to remove a House of Lords amendment to a bill designed to give
the dockworkers a monopoly over cargo handling within five
miles of all port areas. The upper house amendment cut this
distance to a half mile.//
//Labor leaders were furious with the rebels, par- 25x1
titularly since they had not given government whips any advance
warning of their intended action. At least one of the dissi-
dents has subsequently indicated he may abstain on other ma'or
tion slated to be voted on this week. 25x1
EC: Delays in Assistance to UK
//The EC finance ministers, meeting this week 25x1
in Brussels, decided to delay any action on possible Community
assistance to the UK until Britain's negotiations for a $3.9
billion IMF loam are completed.//
Approved', For Release 2007/05110: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For a ease - A029500010022-0 25x1
//The Commission doubts that the Community has
adequate reserves to launch a rescue operation on its own. It
notes that only West Germany, and perhaps the Netherlands,
could make a substantial contribution, and that EC funds will
probably have to be earmarked to provide further economic sup-
port to Italy.//
//General agreement was reached, however, on the
me' o ze ommunity will adopt in assuming Britain's $486-
million share of the EC credit granted Italy in 1974--which
the UK wants repaid by December 9. The Commission expects to
be given the authority to borrow the necessary medium-term
funds when the finance ministers meet on November 22.//
//Commission officials appear convinced that any
vvuuu uiai ~Y ... .ii~~ ... ... ... ....,ter _--~ ~- ---- +
ch lar er o eration includin the US and Japan.
FINLAND: Military Equipment Purchases
25x1
25x1
Finland reportedly has reached agreements to purchase 25x1
,
major military equipment for its air and air defense forces from
the UK and the USSR. These deals are in keeping with Finland's
long-standing policy of trying to balance arms purchases between
East and West.
According to the US defense attache in Helsinki, the
Finnish state council approved the selection of the British Hawk
aircraft to replace aging Fouga Magistere trainers. The decision
followed nearly two years of intense competition among entries
from France, Italy, Sweden, and Czechoslovakia. Finnish officials
will soon begin final negotiations with the UK for the purchase
of 50 Hawks to serve as both ground attack aircraft and advanced
trainers.
The Finns apparently chose the British aircraft be-
,
cause of the attractive terms London proposed to offset the
purchase. The offset package, reportedly worth more than the
cost of the Hawks, will include British purchases of Finnish
products and Finnish subcontracting for some Hawk components.
The UK also apparently will buy some of Finland's new Leko-70
light trainer aircraft.
Approved For Release 2007/05110: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 Approved For R 029500010022-0
Even with the Hawk, the Finnish air force, which is
res ric ed in size by the Paris Peace Treaty of 1947, would still
be largely incapable of performing mast of its assigned missions.
The Hawk nevertheless would help modernize the air force inven-
tory and acquaint Finnish trainees with newer technology.
/,/The agreement with the USSR, Finland's
major arms supplier, reportedly involves a Soviet surface-to-
air missile system. The agreement probably was reached during a
visit to the USSR by a high-level Finnish military delegation
in mid-September. According to the US defense attache, the
equipment will be acquired under the terms of the five-year
trade accord signed between the two countries last year.//
The addition of the SAMs would markedly improve Fin- 25x1
land's air defense network, which presently consists of anti-
aircraft artillery that is only partly radar-controlled. Fin-
land's other 5AMs--obsolescent British Thunderbirds ac uired in
-- d only for training. 25x1
25X1
UK: Nationalization Legislation
//The Callaghan government's legislation to nation-
s ize t e aircraft and shipbuilding industries squeaked through
the House of Commons last night.//
//In a series of close votes Labor struck down
all the crippling amendments tacked on by the Conservative-
dominated House of Lords. The narrowness of the government's
margin last night underlines Labor's precarious parliamentary
situation and its limited maneuvering room on controversial is-
sues.//
//The nationalization bill will now be referred back
to the upper house where Tory peers will have to consider whether
further opposition to the measure is worth the constitutional
confrontation it would precipitate; many Laborites are already
calling for the abolition of the House of Lords.//
25X1
//Three other important--and vulnerable--items in
e government's legislative ro ram are scheduled to
on in the next few days. 25x1
Approved For Release 2007/05110: CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0
 ~ovelea~~Z007/05TTITCIA-R'DF7~T009~~29500II'I'QII22-0
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
J
Approved For Release 2007/05110 :CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010022-0