NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010014-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 10, 2007
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: November 8, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Monday November 8, 1976 CI NIDC 76-261C
1
DA rev ev corrlpl
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Top Secret
(Secyroty Class
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Daily Cable for Monday, November 8, 1976.
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The NID Cable is tor Me pulytMU 01 _L11J_UJ_1LL_L1ij 25x1
senior US otticials.
LEBANON:
Situation Report
Page 1
EGYPT: Election Results Page 3
USSR-CHIN
A: Relations
Page 4
USSR-JAPA
N: Return of MIG-25
Page 6
POLAND:
Workers' Appeal
Page 7
Commercial Aircraft
Page 8
ITALY-FRANCE: Talks
Page 9
CIEC Approaches Final Stages Page 10
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LEBANON: Situation Report.
Lebanese President Sarkis yesterday issued a brief, 25x1
emotions appeal for all combatants to accept the supervision
of Arab League peace-keeping troops. He gave no details, how-
ever, on how he intends to use the League force, on its compo-
sition, or when it will be deployed.
Sarkis has been trying for weeks through private me-
diation to settle the controversy over deployment of the force,
and he apparently decided that any revelation of his plans
would only complicate negotiations. He also recently has warned
that he might proceed without the agreement of all disputants,
and he may have decided, as his remarks implied, that he can
no longer afford to delay reinforcing the cease-fire.
I Although his address seemed intended mainly to reas-
sure of Christians and Muslims that he would have direct con-
trol over the League troops, it also contained an indirect
warning that failure to cooperate with his peace-keeping efforts
would only prolong the presence of foreign troops on Lebanese
soil. In addition, he emphasized that resolution of Lebanon's
conflict is directly linked to progress in solving the broader
Middle East dispute and that he, therefore, also must consider
his full responsibility to the Arab world.
Christian, Muslim, and Palestinian leaders profess
willingness to cooperate with Sarkis, but they continue to
raise objections to his projected plans for using the Arab
security force.
Christian extremist Camille Shamun said on Saturday
that the Palestinians had failed to comply with the provisions
of the Riyadh agreement that called for them to withdraw from
their positions. Arab security forces, he said, should imple-
ment those withdrawals before trying to enter "peaceful areas
where no incidents have taken place"--a reference to the areas
of Christian control. Shamun's son has also announced that the
Christians will not hand their weapons over to Arab League
troops.
D
The more moderate Phalangist Christians are appar-
ently willing to accept units of the Arab security force in
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Christian areas, but even they have specified that the troops
must be withdrawn immediately in case of "incidents."
The Phalangists held a "military review" gn Saturday,
including a parade of tanks and armored cars--presumably an
effort to stress their ability to police their own areas.
I Leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt is still stressing that
withdrawals have to be balanced between both sides, and saying
that it is "illogical and unacceptable" to hand over heavy
weapons until a "national understanding" has been reached on
the problems--including the need for political, economic, and
social reforms--that brought about the civil war in the first
place.
I iAlthough Damascus announced on Friday that it was
p acing As troops in Lebanon at the disposal of Sarkis as mem-
bers of the Arab League force--which would have enabled Sarkis
to begin moving those troops into contested areas--no effort
has as yet been made to use the security forces to enforce the
Riyadh agreement.
The Christians apparently believe such a move is im-
minent, however, and that the troops will move from Jazzin to
Sidon, open the roads from Sidon to Beirut and from Alayh to
the airport, and take up positions along Beirut's confrontation
line.
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President Sadat on Saturday asked Prime Minister
Salim to form a new cabinet following receipt of parliamentary
election returns giving the pro-government slate a strong
majority. The new cabinet will probably be named today.
I Salim submitted his resignation as a formality after
Sadat's inauguration to a second term on October 16, but he
was asked to stay on in a caretaker role until the parliamentary
election.
Near-final returns give the pro-government organiza-
tion within the Arab Socialist Union 275 of the People's Assem-
bly's 348 elected seats. Twelve additional seats are reserved
for appointment by Sadat.
Although the ASU is Egypt's only legal political
party, candidates were permitted this year for the first time
to form opposition groups within the party and to run openly
on opposition platforms. Members of the ASU's leftist organiza-
tion have taken only two seats; the rightist organization, 12.
Independents running outside the sponsorship of any ASU group
won 48 seats.
No comprehensive breakdown of the independents'
political sentiments is available. Some will undoubtedly lean
toward the government, but many are known leftists, and prob-
ably a sizable number will take an opposition stance.
Although no serious challenge to government policies
is expected from the new Assembly, it may prove to be less
manipulable than its predecessors.
//The new cabinet will reflect few changes
except in the economic sector.
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~Sadat and Salim are expected
to replace the present ministers of finance and economy.//
//Foreign minister Fahmi and War Minister
Gamasy are expected to retain their portfoli 25X1
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The message China has sent to the Soviet Union com-
memorating the 59th anniversary of the Russian Revolution is
essentially the same as one broadcast last year and contains
no new initiatives.
The government-to-government message reaffirmed
China's standard position that contention over issues between
the two countries should not interfere with normal relations.
Unlike last year's statement, the current message makes no
specific reference to continuing negotiations over disputed
border areas.
Meanwhile, Chinese officials attended Soviet recep-
tions in Moscow, Peking, and elsewhere honoring the revolution.
The Chinese representation at the Peking gathering was at the
same low level as previous years.
Peking's top diplomat in Moscow sat through the
Kremlin's annual reception for the first time in several years.
The leading Soviet speaker's comments on Sino-Soviet relations
did not contain the sharply worded criticism of China and the
late Mao Tse-tung that had prompted walkouts by Chinese envoys
in the past.
In his speech yesterday at the anniversary parade in
Moscow, Soviet Defense Minister Ustinov--unlike Grechko las
year--avoided mention of China.
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//The USSR and Japan reportedly will sign agree-
ments today regarding the return of the MIG-25 flown to Japan
by a Soviet defector in September. According to the US defense
attache in Tokyo, a Soviet freighter is to arrive at the port
of Hitachi on Sunday to pick up the aircraft.//
//The return of the MIG-25 will remove a major ir-
ritant in Soviet-Japanese relations, and both countries seem
anxious to put the problem behind them. The USSR probably will
go ahead with two planned Soviet ministerial-level visits to
Japan dealing with economic matters that it had threatened to
postopne. The Soviets were reluctant to carry out the threat
because some useful business is likely to be transacted, and
because the USSR, with its political standing in Tokyo so low,
can ill afford setbacks in Soviet-Japanese economic cooperation.
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POLAND: Workers' Appeal
I Nearly 900 workers at an important tractor factory
have petitioned party leader Gierek to reinstate the 126 workers
fired after the demonstrations there last June. The factory was
one of the main centers of opposition to the price increases
proposed at that time.
According to a Western news service, the petition
stated that reinstatement of the workers is "indispensable in
view of the nation's hard situation, the tense atmosphere in
our plants, and difficulties with fulfilling our plans due to
shortages of experienced members."
The leadership has already tried to conciliate the
public by freeing those workers imprisoned for rioting. A de-
cision to rehire all who were dismissed would give the workers
further proof of their new-found power and underscore the re-
gime's weakness.
On the other hand, government indifference or an un-
willingness to budge could risk open confrontation. The Gierek
leadership will probably seek a compromise solution such as
reinstating only those workers who played relatively minor
roles in the riots at the plant.
Should the petition movement spread, however, the
Polish leaders will probably have to take a tougher position
to maintain public order and control.
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Cuba has received its first Soviet-built YAK-40
short-range commercial passenger aircraft.I
a passenger capacity of about 28, a range o about 1,200 kilo-
meters (755 miles), and a short-take-off-and-landing capability.//
//The YAK-40 has been a successful aircraft within
the USSR, but export sales have been a disappointment. Aeroflot
operates about 500 of the aircraft, mostly on feeder routes in
rural Siberia. Despite a major push to export the aircraft in
recent years, only about 50 have been sold--most to the East
European market.//
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I //French Socialist leader Mitterrand and Italian
Communist chief Berlinguer reportedly are planning to hold
talks in Rome later this month.//
Berlinguer's desire to meet with Mitterrand reflects
the Italian Communists' policy of working for closer relations
with West European Socialist and Social Democratic, as well
as Communist, parties. During the last year, for example, the
Italian Communists have held informal discussions with offi-
cials of the British and Dutch Labor parties and with various
Scandinavian Social Democrats.
These contacts seem designed to underline the Italian
Communists' professed commitment to democratic values--which
Berlinguer has also sought to emphasize in joint communiques
with the French, Spanish, and British Communist parties during
the last year. In addition, the Italians apparently believe
that such discussions will ultimately enhance the ability of
the left to influence social and economic policies throughout
Western Europe, particularly within the context of the EC.
//While in Rome, Mitterrand may also arrange to
meet with Italian Socialist leader Craxi. The latter will be
aware, however, that Mitterrand is coming to Rome mainly to
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see Berlinguer. Craxi. has been trying to broaden his own con-
tacts with West European Socialists and Social Democrats in
order to distinguish the Italian Socialists from the Communists
and to underline the latters' continuing relations with Moscow//
//Mitterrand's main motive is to enhance his image.
He knows he is accepted by the French voters as a consumate
politician and a strong alternative voice on domestic issues,
but feels he needs to show that foreign leaders are willing
to deal with him as an equal. Mitterrand would also like to
be accepted as a spokesman on southern European affairs.//
He recognizes that the evolution of the Italian sit-
uation, and particularly Berlinguer's actions, could strongly
influence French voters' assessments of the risks involved in
supporting the left in the legislative elections in 1978. He
may well expect reassurances from Berlinguer that the Italian
Communists will not press their advantages too aggressively.
CIEC Approaches Final Stages
1//The Conference on International Economic Coop-
eration's agreement last month in Paris to schedule a ministe-
rial review conference in mid-December does not obscure the
fact that little progress was made at the Paris meeting in re-
solving the issues.//
//The delegates agreed to establish working groups
that will meet this week in Paris, prior to the next, and per-
haps last, round of talks before the ministerial conference.
The groups have been directed to harmonize the points of view
expressed in papers presented by the 19 developing and eight
industrialized states participating in CIEC.//
1//The topics for discussion are far-ranging and
include methods of increasing the developing countries' access
to new markets, plans for increasing the pace of industriali-
zation in the Third World, and the transfer of technology from
the industrialized states to the developing states.//
I -TI- /Sharp differences, particularly on energy and
on debt re ie for developing countries, will be difficult to
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reconcile, and the developing states are unified in expressing
growing pessimism--both publicly and privately--about achiev-
ing their coals.
//How well the industrialized countries will
stick together in responding to these pressures remains unan-
swered. Some West Europeans talk as though they believe prog-
ress in CIEC '11 afft-ct the oil price decision in the December
OPEC meeting.
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