NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029500010006-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 1, 2008
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: November 3, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Wednesday November 3, 1976 CI NIDC 76-257C
State Dept. review completed.
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Wednesday. November 3. 1976.
The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
LEBANON: Situation Report
INDIA: New Constitutional Amendment
BURUNDI: Late Item of November 2, 1976
BURUNDI: Situation Report
EAST GERMANY: Economic Policy
CHILE: Withdrawal From Andean Pact
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LEBANON: Situation Report
Lebanese President Sarkis and Christian leaders re-
portedly agreed yesterday on a plan that would allow Christian
soldiers from the regular Lebanese army to serve in the Arab
League peace-keeping force and to patrol the Christian side of
the major confrontation lines. The plan--which apparently was
put forth by Christian army officers--is intended to appease
Christian militia leaders, such as Camille Shamun, who oppose
the movement of Muslim peace-keeping troops into Christian ter-
ritory.
Arab League mediator Hasan Sabri al-Khuli re-
ferred obliquely to the new plan in a press conference yester-
day, but refused to be drawn out on specifics or the number of
regular army troops that will participate in the deterrent
The Christian contingent would presumably also be di-
rectly responsible to Sarkis rather than other Christian leaders
and would be drawn from the ranks of those who have had the least
involvement in the conflict.
Muslim leaders and leftist chief Kamal Jumblatt will
object strongly to any arrangement that subjects them to policing
by Syrians and other Arabs while the Christians, in effect, mon-
itor themselves. Militants like Jumblatt will almost certainly
accuse Sarkis of caving in to the demands of his fellow Chris-
tians and may try to use the issue as a pretext for breaking
their already tenuous commitment to the cease-fire. The Beirut
press speculated yesterday that some Lebanese Muslim forces
might be allowed to join the peace-keeping force in order to
give the appearance of evenhandedness.
The Saudi and Sudanese contingents that will augment
the Arab League force reportedly arrived in Damascus on Monday
and may have begun entering Lebanon yesterday. US officials ob-
served a convoy of empty Syrian tank transporters moving toward
Damascus early this week; the convoy may have been returning
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from carrying supplies to Lebanon for the newly arrived Saudi
and Sudanese reinforcements. It is also possible that Syria is
rotating its own troops or sending in additional units to take
part in the peace-keeping force.
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The Chinese leadership yesterday issued the new regime's
irs authoritative statement on domestic and international
The "announcement"--in itself an unusual form of
communication--was ostensibly a message of thanks to foreign
individuals and organizations for their expressions of sympathy
to China on the passing of Mao Tse-tung. The "announcement" was
issued in the name of the party Central Committee, the standing
committee of the National People's Congress (the Chinese legis-
lative body), the state council, and the party's military af-
fairs commission.
The statement is short on specifics but seems designed
to reassure both domestic and foreign audiences that there will
be no sudden break in Chinese policies at home or abroad.
On the domestic front the statement may be meant to
reassure those Chinese who sympathized to some degree with the
ideological position of the fallen leftists that the Maoist
vision of a revolutionary society will not be abandoned despite
the fact that the current Chinese leadership is composed of
"centrist" and rightist civilians and important military men.
References to domestic affairs, however, are brief,
and consist merely of a series of well-worn slogans that
have been given prominence in propaganda in recent weeks. Per-
haps significantly, there is no reference to the need to pre-
serve "new socialist things," a catch-phrase used by the fallen
leftists to emphasize the policies and organizational forms
spawned by the Cultural Revolution. There is also no mention
of the leftist-inspired campaign to criticize former vice pre-
mier Teng Hsiao-ping.
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In the international sphere, the "announcement" stresses 25X1
that China's current foreign policy was "personally laid down"
by Mao and strongly implies that this policy is immutable. This
part of the statement seems designed to put to rest speculation
that Chinese policy toward the USSR is subject to change now
that Mao is dead and the leftists have been eliminated from the
leadership.
By implication, the USSR is branded as a "sham" Marx-
ist-Leninist country; the "announcement" states that China
will "unite with all the genuine Marxist-Leninist parties and
organizations the world over and carry the struggle against
modern revisionism"--read the USSR--"through to the end."
Although the "announcement" is clearly meant to stress
continuity of policy, the reference to "all genuine Marxist-
Leninist parties and organizations" may signal some modifica-
tion of China's attitude toward the so-called Marxist-Leninist
groups that Peking sponsored in the early 1960s as a means of
countering Soviet international influence during the early
stages of the Sino-Soviet dispute.
In 1971, China largely abandoned its position of pa-
tron to these non-ruling parties, recognizing that they were
for the most part ineffective and perhaps more trouble than
they were worth. The "announcement" suggests that Peking may
now be prepared to resume its paternal relationship with these
parties and groups.
If the new Chinese statement does signal a reassess-
ment of the usefulness of these groups, this suggests that the
current Chinese leadership may remain somewhat skeptical as to
the degree China can rely on its improved relations with the
US to offset what it sees as worldwide Soviet pressures against
Peking. Signs of such skepticism were apparent in the autumn
of 1975 and again last summer, when the leftist leaders still
retained power.
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The passage of the constitutional amendment in India's
lower house of Parliament yesterday clears the way for institu-
tionalizing unprecedented power in Prime Minister Gandhi's Con-
gress Party government. Approval by the upper house and at
least half the 22 state governments is also required, but the
party's majority in the upper house and its control of most
state governments makes these steps largely a formality.
The amendment unequivocally establishes the Prime
Minister as the supreme authority in the government and insti-
tutionalizes many repressive measures in effect since Gandhi
imposed a national emergency in June 1975. The amendment sharply
curtails the power of the judiciary to challenge legislative
and executive actions and to safeguard civil liberties. It also
enables the government to ban groups and activities it considers
"anti-national."
During the next two years, Gandhi is authorized to
make additional constitutional changes under the pretext of re-
moving "difficulties" that stand in the way of implementing the
new amendment. For more than a year, she has claimed that revi-
sions in the 26-year-old constitution are needed to speed impor-
tant social and economic changes.
Many features of the new amendment, however, indicate
that Gandhi's chief aim is to retain the vast power she has
held on a temporary basis since establishing the emergency. On
the basis of her performance during a decade of rule, it seems
unlikely that Gandhi will impose far-reaching policies aimed at
redressing the basic inequities in Indian society.
Parliamentary action on the amendment was preceded on
October 30 by a government announcement that the life of the
present parliament will be extended at least until March 1978.
The present term--already extended for one year--was to expire
next March. The move was denounced by the opposition parties,
most of which are boycotting the current session.
BURUNDI: Late Item of November 2, 1976
President Micombero and Chief of Staff General Ndabe-
meye were ousted last night by a military coup, according to
the US embassy in Bujumbura.
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The local radio has been playing martial music, ex-
cept for a brief announcement that "responsible officers" have
taken over to get rid of "anti-national elements" whom Micombero
has allowed to creep to the top. All government and party organs
have been abolished and the cabinet fired. Bujumbura appears
quiet and normal, although the roads are still blocked and the
airport is closed. Further announcements will presumably be made
in the next day or so.
The embassy's tentative view is that almost the whole
officer corps probably got together to plan a peaceful takeover
when the senior officers became fed up by Micombero's
absenteeism, and misrule and by the scope of corruption.
If the senior officer corps in general is behind the coup,
there probably will not be much change in Burundi's moderate
orientation, though there may be an increase in rhetoric about
patriotism, sacrifice, and perhaps about "socialism."
BURUNDI: Situation Report
Burundi remains quiet following the military's take-
over on Monday from the Micombero government. The local radio
yesterday announced that the armed forces had set up a 29-man
council to run the country, assisted by an executive committee
to carry out its policy directives. The council is headed by
Colonel Jean Bagaza, who apparently led the coup.
In suspending the constitution, the council said its
mission will be "to redefine national policy, re-establish
order, and rid the government of incompetence." It has also
pledged to respect the charters of the UN and the Organization
of African Unity and to pursue a foreign policy of good-neigh-
borliness.
US observers have considered Colonel Bagaza friendly
but of modest ability. He attended the Belgian Royal Military
School in 1971 and since 1972 has served as deputy chief of
staff. Bagaza has made official visits to China and the USSR
to arrange for military assistance and training.
Yesterday's radio announcement said the military had
no other choice but to take control because Micombero had as-
sumed excessive power and failed to address the country's
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pressing political and economic problems, and because corruption
was rife.
Burundi, a former Belgian colony on the eastern bor-
der of Zaire, was the scene of violent tribal feuding in 1972,
that resulted in approximately 200,000 killed. We see no in-
dicators that Bagaza's coup will trigger any new outburst of
such tribal violence.
EAST GERMANY: Economic Policy
An exchange of jobs by two of East Germany's top
economists following last Friday's leadership shake-up will
strengthen party control over the implementation of its eco-
nomic policies.
Guenter Mittag steps down as first deputy chairman
of the Council of Ministers and returns to the far more power-
ful post of party secretary for economic affairs--a job he held
from 1963 to 1973. Mittag, 50, has long been acknowledged as
the party's economic wizard. He is a prominent member of the
group of younger technocrats that has spearheaded East Germany's
efforts to modernize industrial production and decentralize
planning and administration.
Mittag's replacement on the Council of ministers is
Werner Krolikowski, who has held the party secretariat position
for economics since Mittag's departure three years ago. As
party economic boss, Krolikowski has been a tough taskmaster,
but he probably has lacked Mittag's broader managerial skills
and energy, which apparently are now called for.
With the shift of the key party post from Krolikowski
to Mittag, the latter has gained political ground. Both men,
however, retain their policy-making posts on the Politburo,
where party chief Honecker may well want to take advantage of
Krolikowski's proven tough approach to the resolution of con-
flicting economic interests. In an address to the parliament
on Monday, Prime Minister Stoph called for more effective per-
formance from all state and economic organs.
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The economic leaders face some tough sledding. In
addition to chronic problems in distribution and power short-
ages, East Germany faces other difficulties over the longer
term. As an exporter of manufactured goods and a net importer
metals, grains, and other raw materials, it has been
of fuels
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hit unusually hard by competition from industries in other com-
munist countries since the early 1960s, by a growing scarcity
of cheap raw materials, and by the mounting preference of its
major East European customers for Western machinery and equip-
ment.
In addition, East Germany is now being forced to im- 25x1
port grain from the West to compensate for its own reduced out-
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put due to this year's severe drought. The regime
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CHILE: Withdrawal From Andean Pact
Chile's withdrawal from the Andean Pact on October 30
wil open new economic opportunities but at the cost of losing
some privileges it enjoyed under the seven-year-old pact with
Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.
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reduce tariffs and to court direct foreign investment on any
terms it can get. Chile wants foreign capital and lower-cost im-
ports to increase economic growth and to help reduce inflation.
As a price of withdrawal, Chile forfeits future exclusive manu-
facturing rights for supplying the member countries under the
Pact's petrochemical and light engineering sector programs.
A Joint Andean Pact - Chilean committee has been es-
tablished to oversee Chilean cooperation with the Pact in pro-
duction, trade finance, and technology. Chile has agreed to im-
plement the planned Andean road transportation system, and to
honor Pact policies promoting indigenous multinational enter-
prises. Chile's access to loans from the Andean Development
Corporation will not be affected.
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Chile believes its economic and political interests
can be better served by association with the River Plate Basin
countries--Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
Over the past three years, Chile's trade with these nations has
been twice that of trade with the Andean Pact countries, exclud-
ing Bolivia, a member of both groups. Chile has already accepted
observer status in the River Plate Basin Group.
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