NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029400010026-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 19, 2006
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: October 16, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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Saturday October 16, 1976 CI NIDC 76-243C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday October 16, 1976.
The NID Cable is for the purpose of in orming
CUBA: Castro Rally
Page 2
LEBANON: Stiff Fighting in Bhamdun Area
Page 3
UNITED KINGDOM: Economic Situation Report
Page 5
USSR: Kirilenko Award Ceremony
Page 6
NATO: European Program Group
Page 8
USSR: Soviet Warships in Yugoslavia Shipyards
Page 9
CHINA: Wallposters and Arrests
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CUBA: Castro Rally
I I Speaking yesterday at a mass rally in Havana to pay
ri u e to the victims of last week's bombing of a Cuban air-
liner, Fidel Castro charged that the US was directly involved.
At the same time, he offered to discuss with Washington a solu-
tion to the terrorist problem, but said that such a discussion
was conditioned on a "definitive end" to all hostile and aggres-
sive acts against Cuba.
Castro also charged that the US was incapable of ful-
l ing t Le spirit and letter of the 1973 bilateral agreement
on hijacking and announced his decision to terminate it on
April 15, 1977. He asserted, however, that if a US commercial
plane is hijacked to Cuba after the agreement expires, Cuba
would return the aircraft, crew, and passengers to the US and
would not "put up with" the hijackers. He also said Cuba would
continue to honor fully similar bilateral agreements now in
force with Canada, Mexico, Colombia, and Venezuela.
Castro's renunciation of the agreement with the US
appears to be little more than a symbolic gesture designed to
mollify the Cuban people and to put pressure on the US to take
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action against Cuban exile terrorists. The flimsiness of his
charges that the CIA was involved in the bombing incident sug-
gests that he merely finds the accusation another convenient
means of exerting leverage on the US.
Castro also made a point of absolving the Venezuelan
government of any blame in the bombing incident. His detailed
description of the role that Venezuelans and exiles in Venezuela
played in the bombing, however, and his comment on the access
some exiles have to "certain political circles" in Venezuela
were probably intended to stress that Cuba takes a dim view of
the support and freedom of action that militant exiles have in
Venezuela.
The speech leaves the impression that Castro, frus-
trated by a string of terrorist incidents that have cost the
lives of almost 80 people since last April, is seeking a means
of putting a stop to the violence. 25X1
I I
LEBANON: Stiff Fighting in Bhamdun Area
The Syrian advance toward Beirut apparently slowed
yesterday as Syrian forces engaged in heavy fighting in the
Bhamdun area. Units attempting to pass north and south of
Bhamdun also met sharp resistance.
In the south, advance Syrian units have apparently
penetrated as far as the heights of Hilaliya overlooking the
port of Sidon. Although the Christian militias have largely
stayed out of the recent fighting, they have been cleaning
leftists and Palestinians out of villages between Jun and Kafr
Falus north of the Jazzin-Sidon road.
I The Arab League peacekeeping forces in Lebanon have
been ineffectual in the face of the Syrian offensive and could
be on the verge of disintegrating. A Libyan detachment of the
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peacekeeping forces was pulled out of the area east of Sidon
on Thursday over Palestinian and leftist protests; it is not
clear who gave the withdrawal order.
Arab League mediator Hasan Sabri al-Khuli, who is
now in Cairo, is said to have ordered the commander of the
League forces to return to Egypt. The Lebanese press, citing
Egyptian sources, reports that Khuli himself may submit his
resignation from the peace mission.
I Palestine Liberation Organization chief Yasir Ara-
fat has Teen in touch with representatives of various Arab
governments in an attempt to step up pressure on Syria. Accord-
ing to the leftist Lebanese radio, Saudi Crown Prince Fahd has
responded to Arafat's plea by asking Syria to halt military
operations. There were earlier indications that the Saudis
support the latest Syrian offensive.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has obtained Syrian Presi-
en sa s agreement to attend a six-member "mini-summit"
that will convene today in Riyadh. The Saudi royal court has
announced that presidents Sadat, Asad, and Sarkis, King Khalid,
Kuwaiti Amir Sabah, and Yasir Arafat will attend.
Asad's agreement to
attend reverses his earlier refusal to go to any limited sum-
mit that includes both Arafat and Sarkis and would therefore
focus on the situation in Lebanon. During earlier Saudi at-
tempts to convene such a meeting, Asad had always insisted that
only Sadat, Khalid, Sabah, and himself attend and that the
discussion deal with the rupture between Syria and Egypt, for
which he could blame Egypt's acceptance of the second Sinai
accord.
A d ma have decided that recent Syrian military
sa
y
successes in Lebanon put him in such a strong position that he
risks little by going to the mini-summit. Judging by the last
meeting between himself and Sadat held under Saudi aegis, he
may believe that only rhetoric is likely to emerge.
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I I The Syrian leader has followed a consistent pattern
since his intervention in Lebanon of pursuing a military op-
tion for short periods of time, broken by long pauses during
which negotiations were conducted and Syria would give an im-
pression of willingness to compromise--without, however, con-
ceding anything of value. Asad may have calculated that such
a pause is again in order.
The full summit scheduled to begin Monday has been
postpone because of the meeting in Saudi Arabia. The prepara- 25X1
tory foreign ministers' meeting convened in Cairo yesterday,
but the ministers announced that they would not meet again
until after the mini-summit.
UNITED KINGDOM: Economic Situation Report
//The recent publication of statistics on British
trade, retail prices, and industrial production has contributed
to the downward pressure on the pound and heightened local de-
mands for selective import controls. The pound closed at $1.650
yesterday, down from last week's closing of $1.662.//
//The seasonally adjusted monthly trade deficit
rose to more than $600 million in September--up $119 million
from August.//
//While the British government continues to resist
demands for general import controls, the likelihood has in-
creased of some other form of restraint--an import deposit
scheme or quota restrictions on specific products. Earlier this
week, the Confederation of British Industry and the Trades
Union Congress jointly recommended selective import curbs on
such items as electronic components, television sets, footwear,
automobiles, paper products, and textiles and clothing. Japan,
Taiwan, and Singapore would be the primary targets of controls.//
//Consumer prices in September rose by 1.3 percent,
bringing the increase for the first nine months of the year to
10 percent. The current inflation rate is below last year's 24
percent, but it is still well above the rates in most other in-
dustrial nations.//
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//Little improvement in Britain's inflation is
likely before next year. September wholesale price figures
showed a 1.3-percent increase for manufactured goods and a
3.3-percent increase for raw materials. The drop in sterling
since early September in turn will increase the upward pressure
on prices, particularly raw material prices.//
//The recovery from the recession apparently has
also stalled. Industrial production fell 1 percent during
August, bringing the decline for the three-month period through
August to about 3 percent. Because of the slowdown in industrial
output, Britain's gross domestic product growth almost certainly
will fall short of the 4.5-percent annual growth rate forecast
by the Callaghan government for the 18-month period beginning
with the second half of 1976, A more modest 3 to 3.5 percent is
likely.
USSR: Kirilenko Award Ceremony
I iParty secretary Kirilenko Thursday was presented
with the Order of Lenin, which had been granted on the oc-
casion of his 70th birthday on September 8. Party chief
Brezhnev and most other party leaders attended the ceremony.
The honors accorded Kirilenko are similar to those
given Po gorny, Suslov, and Kosygin for their 70th birthdays
and seem generally in line with Kirilenko's position in the
leadership. The delay in giving the award was unusual, but
Kirilenko, presumably on vacation, had been out of sight
throughout September, and this may have been the first convenient
time to hold the gathering.
Kirilenko in his acceptance speech went to far greater
lengths than necessary or even appropriate to praise Brezhnev
and demonstrate loyalty to the party leader. The political
nature of his remarks was reinforced by an extraordinary and in-
appropriate recital of accomplishments during his own long
party career.
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It is possible that Kirilenko's remarks reflected
concern about his credentials as a successor to Brezhnev.
Kirilenko has been one of Brezhnev's oldest and closest as-
sociates. For many years he has served as Brezhnev's un-
official deputy in the party secretariat and is viewed as the
person most likely to succeed Brezhnev should he step down in
the near future.
Kirilenko, however, has never been publicly recog-
nized as the second man in the secretariat, and his age is a
liability. His sensitivity to his age was apparent when he
noted in his speech that "a 70-year long path through life is
not a short one, but it is good that in our country this age
is considered to be only average." In addition to Kirilenko's
age, there is also the increasing likelihood that Brezhnev
will, with the passage of time, be tempted to turn from
Kirilenko to one of his younger proteges.
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NATO: European Program Group
//The arms directors of the ten European members
of NATO's military organization plus France--convening as the
European Program Group--held their third meeting in Rome re-
cently to review progress on European arms collaboration and
to prepare for a meeting at the political level in November.//
//A review of work accomplished thus far focused
on the progress made by two subgroups investigating the possi-
bilities for cooperation provided by present national equip-
ment schedules and future equipment needs. The Group concluded
that overall progress so far was satisfactory and it agreed to
establish new areas for future cooperation.//
//The representatives also noted the work of an-
other subgroup that is addressing such complex problems as en-
suring the cooperation of national industries, controlling ex-
ports to third countries and developing "compensatory mecha-
nisms" for countries with relatively small or nonexistent arms
industries. A full assessment of the work of this politically
oriented group was reserved for the November meeting which
will be held at the under-secretary level.//
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//Agreement on these complex issues would facili-
tate establishment of a permanent secretariat to handle arms
collaboration. It would also help the Europeans achieve a con-
sensus on how the Group is to relate to NATO.//
//An Italian official said recently that the No-
vember meeting will specifically take up the question of a tie
to NATO. In his opinion, the most likely approach to developing
such a link will be via the Conference of National Armaments
Directors--a group that meets regularly but has only an infor-
mal connection with the alliance.//
//The first tentative moves may in fact already
have been made. At a recent meeting of the arms directors of
the four major powers--France, the.UK, West Germany, and the
US--the French and the Germans finally gave formal approval
to a British proposal to include US and Canadian contributions
to the weapons planning exercise of the European Group.//
//The Europeans also offered to provide the US
with the replacement schedules they are developing, and pledged
that weapons projects discussed by the four powers would coin-
cide with those considered in the European Program Group.
USSR: Soviet Warships in Yugoslavia Shipyards
//Three Soviet warships--the Moskva-class antisub-
marine war are helicopter carrier Leningrad, a Kashin-class
guided missile destroyer, and an F-class diesel-powered attack
submarine began a five-day port visit to Split, Yugoslavia, on
Thursday.//
//The ships are under the command of Rear Admiral
Dvindenko, who is probably the surface force commander of the
Soviet Mediterranean squadron. The most recent Soviet port
visit to Split occurred last April when a Sverdlov-class
cruiser, a Kashin-class destroyer, and an F-class submarine
called.//
//As a result of their eviction from Alexandria,
Egypt, in April, the Soviets have been seeking alternative
port facilities in the Mediterranean more actively. During a
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visit to Yugoslavia in August, Soviet Navy Commander Admiral
Gorshkov discussed the use of Yugoslav ports for repair of
Soviet ships. Even if the use of Yugoslav facilities for So-
viet naval repairs is expanded somewhat, it cannot adequately
compensate for the denial of access to facilities formerly
available at Alexandria.//
//The US defense attache in Belgrade reports that
he and other NATO attaches have observed that the number and
type of Soviet ships under repair in Yugoslav shipyards may
deliberately circumvent an April 1974 Yugoslav maritime law,
which, among other things, prohibits the repair of naval ships
in commercial ports. Three Soviet naval auxiliaries--all appar-
ently declared as merchant ships--have recently been under re-
pair at two commercial ports. Two of them are still undergoing
repairs.//
Two Soviet warships have been undergoing repairs in
Tivat, a designated naval shipyard, for several months. A third
ship spent 18 days there in September either under repair or
visiting. According to the law, not more than two naval ships
from the same country may be repaired at one port simultaneously.
The same law restricts visits by foreign naval units to the
ports of Split, Rijeka, and Dubrovnik and sets a time limit of
10 days.
CHINA: Wallposters and Arrests
Wallposters on the arrest of the four leading left-
ists on the Chinese Politburo have appeared in at least three
major Chinese cities, including the leftist bastion of Shang-
hai. The posters have called for harsh measures against the
quartet, now dubbed the "four dogs," but the tone of the post-
ers suggests that rumors of their execution are false.
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 The roundup of other leftists has extended to
fields where the left was most influential--propaganda, cul-
ture, and education. Two Radio Peking officials who were on an
overseas trip have been recalled to Peking.
The only cultural
o icia has appeared publicly in recent days was a vic-
tim of the left during the Cultural Revolution.
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Some educational officials are under arrest, and
students at the major universities in Peking appear to be call-
ing for further arrests. Their posters say they do not trust
the universities' leaders.
Arrests do not appear to have extended widely into
the provinces, where leftist supporters are keeping a low pro-
file. There is one report, however, that a leftist newspaper
in Shanghai, which carried an article in March attacking Chou
En-lai, has been closed. A poster in Shanghai reportedly called
for one local leftist official to explain his relationship to
those arrested in Peking.
The forceful move against the left may already be
benefiting those who were in political trouble during the anti-
rightist campaign before Mao's death. The minister of railways,
who was allegedly dismissed during that campaign, is said to
have resumed his duties.
The antileft campaign has prompted other Chinese of-
ficials to act with growing confidence. The minister of for-
eign trade is said to have apologized to foreigners that trade
had come to a standstill but promised that the situation would
change for the better. Trade policy had been under attack since
the campaign to oust Teng Hsiao-ping.
Some foreign observers have noted an increased num-
ber of police, militia, and military on the streets of Peking.
This is undoubtedly related to the move against the left and
possibly also to the central committee meeting still in prog-
ress in the capital. There have been no reported signs of
heightened security elsewhere in China. 25X1
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