NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029400010016-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 19, 2006
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: October 9, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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pp I %r Release 2007/03/07
Saturday October 91976 CI NIDC 76-238C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday, October 9, 1976.
IT he NID Cable is for the purpose a informing
LEBANON: Situation Report Page 1
Page 3
USSR-ANGOLA: Friendship Treaty Signed Page 4
ITALY: Christian Democratic Meeting Page 5
FRANCE: Strike Draws Limited Support Page 6
SWEDEN: New Cabinet Page 7
SAUDI ARABIA - SYRIA: Saudi Troop Withdrawal Page 8
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LEBANON: Situation Report
Palestinians and leftists are continuing to brace for
a Syrian-Christian offensive, despite talk of a possible re-
newal of negotiations between representatives of the Syrians,
the Palestinians, and Lebanese President Sarkis.
Arab League mediator Hasan Sabri al-Khuli announced
yesterday that Damascus had agreed to attend another round of
talks today in Syrian-occupied Shaturah. The Syrians have not
yet named a delegate to the conference, however, and it is pos-
sible they have no real intention of attending.
//Most reports indicate that the Syrians expect
nothing to come of continued contacts with the Palestinians and
are planning to resume military operations in the near future.
Although the Syrians could agree to attend a new round
of talks in Shaturah as a public relations exercise--they have
typically been careful to place the onus for stalemated negotia-
tions on the Palestinian camp--new discussions are unlikely to
produce a breakthrough.
There were clashes along Beirut's confrontation line
yesterday, with heavy shelling in the area of the port and the
commercial district. Alayh was hit by sporadic artillery fire;
shelling and small-scale clashes took place near Tripoli in the
north. The Palestinians and leftists are continuing to reinforce
their fortifications near Rum and Sidon in anticipation of re-
newed Syrian-Christian attacks. 25X1
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A reference in Chinese media to the Politburo "headed
by Comrade Hua Kuo-feng" tends to boost Hua's public stature,
but probably does not mean that an official decision has been
made to name him the new head of the party.
Until they used this terminology yesterday, the media
had been scrupulous in referring to Hua by his official title
as first vice chairman of the party. In that position, Hua has
in fact headed the party since Mao's death on September 9, and
the use of the new formulation confirms a situation that has
existed for the last month.
Nevertheless, the decision to refer to Hua as heading
the Politburo, in media pronouncements aimed at both domestic
and foreign audiences, raises his political stock and could
prove useful when the party meets formally to name a new leader.
There is no evidence that a major party meeting has
yet taken place, but the Politburo, which apparently met for a
lengthy time following Mao's death, seems to have resolved some
of the immediate questions posed by that event. Peking announced
on Friday that Mao's body will be put on public display in a
memorial hall in Peking. The delay in making this announcement
suggests the disposition of Mao's body may have been a conten-
tious issue.
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Peking also announced yesterday that preparations
were being made for the publication of the collected works of
Mao. Mao's works have never been compiled and published in their
entirety, and this undertaking may prove politically sensitive.
There is undoubtedly much in Mao's unpublished works that vari-
ous party leaders may prefer to keep out of the public eye.
USSR-ANGOLA: Friendship Treaty Signed
I I Soviet General Secretary Brezhnev and Angolan Presi-
dent e o signed a treaty of friendship and cooperation in Mos-
cow yesterday.
he USSR has concluded such treaties with only a few
r t.ir -wod countries--India, Egypt, Iraq, and Somalia. The
text of the new treaty has not yet been published, but a Tass
summary indicates that it generally follows the format and sub-
stance of the other treaties with third-world states, outlining
a commitment to cooperate in a wide variety of fields.
Neto's talks in Moscow have apparently focused on
strengthening party ties and on the needs of Angola's economy.
The Angolans seem anxious to see Moscow play a greater role in
their country's postwar development, but the situation in An-
gola limits the amount of useful assistance the Soviets can
provide.
Angola needs access to the West if it is to benefit
fully from its oil, agricultural, and mineral resources. Neto
has in fact been making efforts to expand ties with the West--
most recently exchanging ambassadors with Sweden and resuming
diplomatic relations with Portugal.
The treaty apparently provides for strengthening
military cooperation--implying continued Soviet military aid.
It is possible that under this clause the Soviets will try to
gain access to military facilities in Angola. //There are in-
dications, however, that Neto will not agree with such access.//
In signing the treaty, Moscow certainly has an eye
to the rest of southern Africa, especially the insurgent move-
ments in Namibia and Rhodesia. F -1 25X1
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ITALY: Christian Democratic Meeting
The leadership of Italy's Christian Democratic Party
m e this weekend for its first full-scale strategy ses-
sion since the parliamentary election in June.
Debate is certain to center on how to manage relations
between Prime Minister Andreotti's Christian Democratic minor-
ity government and the Communist Party, whose cooperation in
parliament is essential to Andreotti''s survival.
Many Christian Democrats probably share a concern
voiced this week by Republican leader La Malfa, whose party is
among those the Christian Democrats hope eventually to draw
into another non-Communist coalition. He took Andreotti to task
for leaving too many important details of his economic program
for parliament to decide and charged that this practice is lead-
ing to Christian Democratic - Communist collusion in the legis-
lature.
There is doubtless some concern in the Christian Demo-
cratic Party that the precedents being set by the Prime Minis-
ter could lay the basis for Communist chief Berlinguer's "his-
toric compromise"--a governing partnership between the two par-
ties.
Many Christian Democrats blame party secretary Zac-
cagnini for the uncertain state of the party's relations with
the Communists. Although he enjoys wide popular appeal, Zac-
cagnini is regarded by his rivals in the party as a poor man-
ager, inclined to give too much weight to the views of a minor-
ity in the party that favors a more flexible policy toward the
Communists .
I Critics of Zaccagnini are probably responsible for an
expecte move to install former prime minister Aldo Moro as
party president at the meeting. Christian Democrats supporting
Moro--Zaccagnini's mentor in the party--apparently assume that
Moro will be able to dominate the leadership and serve as a
steadying influence on the party secretary.
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I uIn exchanqe for giving up the party presidency, vet-
eran Christian Democratic conservative Amintore Fanfani is ex-
pected to insist on naming his lieutenants to fill vacancies
in the party hierarchy. Fanfani is apparently aiming to dilute
the influence of a left-wing faction leader who has become Zac-
cagnini's closest adviser. 25X1
FRANCE: Strike Draws Limited Support
The nationwide strike on Thursday--called to protest
-1 the an i-inflation measures of Prime Minister Barre's economic
stabilization program--failed to obtain the massive labor sup-
port the strike organizers had anticipated, suggesting that
French workers are concerned for their jobs and may be taking
a wait-and-see attitude toward the government's program.
The US embassy estimates that some 75,000 demonstra-
tors participated in the protest march in Paris organized by
the Communist-led labor federation, the left-wing Socialist
federation, and the teachers' organization.
Although the turnout was greater than similar demon-
strations over the past few years, the crowds appeared dispir-
ited and poorly organized. Members of the Communist-led labor
federation dominated the proceedings; banners from the non-
Communist groups were sparse.
Strike participation was greater among workers in the
public sector than in private industry. Subway and bus service
in Paris was sharply curtailed, and about half the workers in
the Post, Telephone, and Telegraph Service, a volatile govern-
ment agency because of the number of extreme leftists within it,
joined the strike. Many gas and electrical workers struck, but
there were no outages because several industrial plants had
closed. for the day.
The strike was more effective in the industrial areas
of Lyons and Le Havre. There were large demonstrations in Lyons
and Marseille, and possibly in other provincial cities.
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//Except for plans to participate in a demonstra-
tion set for October 23 protesting unemployment among youth--
supported jointly by the leftist Socialist and the Communist-
led federations--there is no sign that the tin' re planning
further work stoppages.//
The cabinet appointed Thursday by Prime Minister
Thorbjorn Falldin consists largely of leaders new to the na-
tional political scene, although most of them have served in
responsible positions in the bureaucracy.
I I Falldin's own Center Party received eight of the
-1 portfolios, the Conservative Party six, and the Liberal Party
five. Although the Liberal Party has fewer seats in the newly
elected Parliament than the Conservative Party, the Liberals
appear to have received the more important posts.
I I In addition to being named labor minister, the Lib-
eral Party leader, Per Ahlmark, was named deputy prime minis-
ter, a newly created slot that makes him the number-two man in
the government. The Conservative Party leader, Gosta Bohman,
was assigned the post of minister of economy, the one of two
new posts created by splitting the Finance Ministry.
An innovative step was the creation of a subcabinet
post--assistant industries minister--to coordinate Sweden's
energy policy. Falldin's decision to claim this post for his
own party suggests that he intends to monitor closely develop-
ments relating to nuclear energy, the issue upon which he based
his election campaign.
During the negotiations for a government, the Lib-
erals and Conservatives apparently persuaded Falldin not to
block the start-up of one new nuclear plant. The fate of five
others under construction and one that was to be fueled soon
is not clear.
I IFalldin also departed from the practice of his So-
cialist predecessors by appointing a woman, Karin Soeder, as
foreign minister. Soeder has been the second deputy chairman
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of the Center Party since 1971 and has served as a member of
the Foreign Relations Council, an advisory body to the Prime
Minister that includes representatives from all parties except
the Communists. The Council circumvents the parliamentary For-
eign Relations Committee, which includes members of the Commu-
nist Party.
SAUDI ARABIA - SYRIA: Saudi Troop Withdrawal
Saudi Arabia has begun to withdraw its combat forces
from Syria, a move that has been under consideration since
early this year. The Saudis reportedly informed Syria in early
July that they planned the withdrawal.
About 6,000 Saudi troops have been in Syria since
Saudi Arabia reportedly plans to airlift out some
5,000 men, with most of the remaining troops returning by road
with the brigade's armored vehicles. According to the US de-
fense attache in Damascus, about 200 troops will remain in
Syria to support the small Saudi peace-keeping force in Leba-
non.
I IPress reports from Cairo this past week have por-
raye e withdrawal as evidence of Saudi displeasure with
Syrian military actions in Lebanon, but Syrian officials cite
Riyadh's plans to modernize its armed forces as the primary
reason.
The US embassy in Jidda believes, however, that Saudi
Arabia simply may no longer see a need to station a token force
in the confrontation area to demonstrate its leadership in the
Arab world.
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I I Some Saudis have suggested the withdrawal may be mo-
tivated by concern about the exposure of Saudi troops to Baath-
ist influence in Syria. The Saudis may also be worried that the
troops could be drawn into the Lebanese fighting. Saudi troops
are already serving with the Arab peace-keeping forces in Leba-
non, and it would be difficult for Riyadh to refuse requests
for additional troops so long as it had units stationed nearby
in Syria.
I Riyadh also intends to pull its 5,600 troops out of 25X1
or an.
t is move wi to e place later this month. Saudi Arabia DIA
as had troops in Jordan since the Arab-Tsraeli_war of 1967.
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