NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029300010034-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 12, 2006
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: September 21, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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Tuesday September 21, 1976 CI NIDC 76-222C
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
State Dept. review completed Top Secret
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law 'AW 10MV 100W 1,11W 1,10W 1,11W 1,11W 1AW
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National Intel 'gence Daily Cable for Tuesday, September 21. 25X1
e NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior officials.
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Situation Report
Page 1
CHINA: Reconfirmi
ng Foreign Policy
Page 2
MALTA: Mintoff's P
arty Wins Election
Page 5
UK: Import Controls Likely
Page 6
NORTH KOREA: Withdrawing UN Resolution
Page 7
UN Membership
Page 8
PANAMA: More Student Demonstrations
Page 10
GUATEMALA-BELIZE: Talks and Saber Rattling
Page 11
JAMAICA: Aluminum Negotiations
Page 11
EAST GERMANY: Church-State Relations
Page 13
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LEBANON: Situation Report
ians and Lebanese leftists traded propaganda
h
S
yr
e
IT
charges yesterday, each blaming the other for the breakdown Sun-
day of the tripartite negotiations at Shaturah. The sharp Syrian
attack was probably meant as a veiled threat to resort to mili-
tary force if the Palestinians do not agree to withdraw uncon-
ditionally from the Mount Lebanon area.
I //Syrian President Asad is unlikely to resume mili-
tary opera ions until after president-elect Sarkis' inauguration
on Thursday and may wish to give the new president at least one
more opportunity to obtain a political settlement after he as-
sumes office.//
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IThe Syrian media yesterday also accused the Sadat
government once more of responsibility for the Lebanese civil
war and of sabotaging the talks at Shaturah to perpetuate the
fighting.
Fighting in Beirut has taken another turn for the
r the past few days, raising some concern about the
ability of Arab League forces to provide adequate security for
Sarkis' swearing-in ceremony. His inauguration apparently is
scheduled to take place at the national museum, which is located
only 100 yards from the front line-
CHINA: Reconfirming Foreign Policy
I Since the death of Mao Tse-tung, the Chinese leader-
snip as moved quickly to reconfirm the general outline of Chi-
nese foreign policy, especially toward the US and the USSR.
The Chinese have used several occasions since Mao's
ea o reiterate the importance they attach to relations with
the US. They have also made it clear that they remain displeased
with some aspects of US foreign policy, such as the continuation
of the US policy of "detente" with the USSR.
Both the official announcement of Chairman Mao's death
an Premier Hua Kuo-feng's eulogy for Mao on Saturday included
statements of China's intention to "resolutely" carry out Mao's
"revolutionary line and policies in foreign affairs," a euphe-
mism for China's diplomatic opening to the US. The statements
also included sharp criticism of the USSR, calling the Soviets
a "renegade clique" at the core of "modern revisionism."
I I The Chinese press quickly published President Ford's
letter of condolence in which he reaffirmed determination to
complete the normalization of Sino-US relations. Chinese media
also replayed the President's statement to US newsmen on Mao's
death.
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These moves contrast with China's rejection of the
con o a ory message from the Soviet party Central Committee--
on the grounds that the Chinese "have no relations" with the
Soviet party. The Chinese also allowed several days to pass
before they publicly acknowledged that two Soviet Politburo
members had expressed condolences at the Chinese embassy in
Moscow.
I Heated anti-Soviet propaganda has continued to appear
in inese media since Mao's death, focusing on the general
theme of Soviet "expansionism." This treatment of this sensi-
tive issue is clearly designed to counter speculation that Chi-
nese policy toward the USSR is likely to change now that Mao
is gone.
The Chinese have extended exceptionally cordial treat-
ment to ormer secretary of defense Schlesinger. The reinstate-
ment of Schlesinger's tour of the Chinese hinterland--a trip
which included visits to a number of places close to the Soviet
border and which the Chinese had initially said would have to
be canceled when Mao died--appears to have been prompted by
anti-Soviet considerations.
//Conversely the Chinese have used Schlesinger's
visit, which began three days before Mao died, to register dis-
approval of some aspects of US policy, particularly US-Soviet
"detente." Schlesinger's views of "detente" with the USSR have
long been welcomed in China.//
//Chinese Ambassador to the UN Huang Hua was ex-
plicit in his attacks on "detente" during a talk with Ambassa-
dor Scranton, who called last week at the Chinese mission to
express condolences on Mao's death. Huang reiterated standard
Chinese warnings that "detente" might hasten war rather than
prevent it, and deplored the fact that "some European coun-
tries" were not standing up to the Soviets.//
/Another indication of continuing Chinese pique
with the was the perfunctory treatment of Secretary Kissinger
in media coverage of foreign tributes paid to the late Chairman.
The Chinese did not publish the Secretary's statement after
Mao's death, and he was given no special prominence in Chinese
coverage of condolence calls paid by senior US officials to the
Chinese mission in Washington.//
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I //These low-key indications of unhappiness with
the US appear to reflect dissatisfaction with several aspects
of US policy rather than a harbinger of an abrupt change of
course. Surfacing of these sentiments at the moment when both
architects of the Sino-US rapprochement--Mao and Chou--have
passed from the scene, however, may be designed to warn Wash-
ington that, although a relatively close relationship with the
US still has the support of most leaders, critics at home could
gain the ,u er hand if progress oward that goal is not made
soon.//
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MALTA: Mintoff's Party Wins Election
I I Maltese Prime Minister Mintoff's Labor Party won a
close but decisive victory over the opposition Nationalists in
the parliamentary election on Friday and Saturday.
I The final vote count is expected to give Labor about
52 percent, which will translate into a three-seat majority for
Mintoff in the new parliament. This is more than enough to guar-
antee the continuation of a strong Labor government for the next
five years, given Mintoff's tight control of his party and the
unwavering loyalty of the Laborites in parliamentary votes.
I IThe result is a personal triumph for Mintoff, and he
will interpret it as a mandate to continue his controversial
foreign policy aimed at avoiding alignment with either the US
or USSR. Since taking office in 1971, Mintoff has gradually
loosened Malta's traditional ties to the UK and NATO and has
sought to extract bilateral pledges of economic assistance and
guarantees of Maltese neutrality from the island's Arab and
European neighbors.
I In recent months, Mintoff has directed his appeal
mainly to France, Italy, Libya, and Algeria. France and Italy
have temporized, but Libyan President Qadhafi and Algerian
President Boumediene gave public pledges of support in late
August.
h lection behind him, Mintoff is likely to
With t e e
push harder for commitments from the French and Italians. Some
Italian officials, including Rome's ambassador to Malta, are
reportedly lobbying in behalf of Mintoff, but the Andreotti
government is probably too preoccupied with domestic problems
to formulate an official response anytime soon.
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UK: Import Controls Likely
I //The Labor government has agreed to a trade union
request to set import ceilings on selected foreign goods, ac-
cording to a Trades Union Congress official.//
//There was no immediate government confirmation
o e union statement, which was made following a meeting be-
tween union and government officials, including Prime Minister
Callaghan. The government has until now resisted union demands
for import controls because it fears that foreign retaliation
will undermine prospects for Britain's export-led recovery.//
//Union pressure to take some action is strong
because of the continuing rise in unemployment, currently at a
postwar record of 1.5 million. Earlier this month, the annual
meeting of the Trades Union Congress unanimously passed a mo-
tion urging the immediate imposition of selective controls.//
//The latest unemployment figures will be announced
today, and the jobless picture is expected to remain grim. Ac-
tion on selective controls would demonstrate the government's
desire to prevent the loss of jobs to "unfair" foreign competi-
tion.//
//The Trades Union Congress spokesman said the
government would announce import ceilings for 35 sectors of
British industry in a few weeks. Fear that Britain's trading
partners will retaliate, however, may cause the government to
set import ceilings artificially high so as to have only a minor
impact.//
I /Last December, the Labor government imposed some
token controls on textiles, footwear, and TV sets and tubes,
which amounted to only 1 percent of total British imports.//
/Automotive imports continue to be a problem for
the British. Imported cars accounted for one third of the total
sales last year and continue to take a large share of the mar-
ket. The British have been particularly bothered by Japanese
automobile imports.//
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//Import controls would have to be approved by the
EC. in e past, the Community has approved selective controls
for other members on the grounds of exceptional circumstances.
The EC would probably reluctantly agree to a UK request. I
NORTH KOREA: Withdrawing UN Resolution
I North Korea, in a sudden turnabout, has instructed its
supporters in the UN to withdraw from the provisional agenda of
the UN General Assembly the draft resolution favoring the North
on the Korea question, according to press reports.
The North Koreans may have detected some weakening in
e support for their position at the UN this fall. Last year
two conflicting Korean resolutions were passed, and the North
was hoping to build enough momentum this year to achieve an
outright defeat of the South.
A number of recent developments, however, have improved
the prospects for passage again of South Korea's resolution,
--The unusual display of dissent registered by 23 countries
against a harshly worded North Korean resolution submitted
at the nonaligned conference in Sri Lanka.
--The improved pro-South lobbying effort.
--The confrontational language of the draft UN resolution
submitted this year by the North.
--The adverse publicity stemming from the Panmunjon inci-
dent in mid-August.
North Korea may also have sensed that there was growing
sentiment at the UN this year for a deferral of debate on the
perennially contentious Korea issue. The backers of the pro-
South resolution will probably also move to withdraw their item
from the agenda.
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I lAlthough the move to defer debate runs sharply counter
r original goal, the North Koreans will likely point to
the decision as evidence that they are the more responsible
party and are seeking to take a reasonable approach to the Ko-
rea issue. They took a similar approach when they put forward
their proposal last month to separate military rsonnel in the
Joint Security Area at Panmunjom. e
-CIA, DIA, NSA -
VIETNAM: UN Membership
The UN Security Council's agreement to postpone con-
sideration of Vietnam's admission to the UN has drawn little
reaction from either Vietnam or its Southeast Asian neighbors.
Although members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
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were prepared to vote for the admission of Vietnam in the Gen-
eral Assembly if the Security Council had approved its appli-
cation, none of them appeared willing to lobby actively on
Vietnam's behalf.
I By the time the postponement was announced, the
ASERM go ments had backed away from an earlier interest in
addressing the Security Council in support of Vietnam, but they
had tentatively agreed to speak in favor of Vietnam's applica-
tion in the General Assembly.
I IVietnam continues to be distrusted by its ASEAN
neig ors--a distrust sharpened by Vietnam's part in the com-
munist attack last month on Malaysia's proposal at the non-
aligned conference in Sri Lanka for a zone of "peace, freedom,
and neutrality" in Southeast Asia. Their pique over that inci-
dent, however, has had little impact on their decisions to sup-
port Vietnamese membership in the UN and in other international
bodies.
I IThe Southeast Asians clearly are seeking a middle
grounc at will both avoid antagonizing Vietnam and yet not
make them appear too eager to appease the Vietnamese. At the
same time, they are both sensitive to US problems and anxious
to appear independent of US influence.
Vietnam has welcomed the Security Council's agreement
to postpone consideration of its application until November.
Hanoi radio on Thursday briefly noted that Vietnam, "in order
to express its good will," did not object to the French pro-
posal to defer action.
I Vietnam's release of the names of 12 Americans miss-
ing in a714-ion was clearly a last-minute attempt to stave off
the expected veto. Its purpose in publishing the exchange of
notes with the US on September 13 was to place the onus on the
US for the failure to open bilateral discussions and to blunt
the MIA issue.
I Vietnam asserted that the two sides had already agreed
to discuss matters of interest to both parties, including MIAs
and normalization of relations, as well as US reconstruction
aid, which, in fact, the US has never agreed to discuss.
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The Vietnamese at present are probably not prepared
to be more forthcoming on the MIA issue, which they undoubtedly
still view as their only important leverage with the US. Viet-
nam probably will continue to link US reconstruction aid with
the resolution of the MIA issue, at least until the Vietnamese
have had time to assess US policy after the November election.
//The clash in Panama yesterday between National
Guar troops and anti-government university students indicates
that the government's charges of US responsibility for last
week's rioting have not yet redirected student protest.//
I J Riot troops using tear gas and shotguns clashed with
severai undyed university students carrying signs protesting
government repression and the high cost of living. About 80 stu-
dents were arrested; some were reportedly injured. University
classes were suspended to avoid further trouble.
//This was the first major involvement of university
groups in the week-old protests, which were incited largely by
high school demonstrators. The clash also suggests that the gov-
ernment's strong show of force and preventive arrests--which
kept demonstrators off the streets last Thursday and Friday--
may be losing their effectiveness.//
//The government may still face problems at the
secondary level as well. Representatives of the nation's largest
high school, controlled by anti-government factions, refused
to attend the recent official dialogue between Vice President
Gerardo Gonzalez and student leaders.//
/If university and high school groups unite, gov-
ernment s rongman Omar Torrijos may have to repress the very
student movement that he has counted on as one of the pillars
of support for his "revolutionary" government.//
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GUATEMALA-BELIZE: Talks and Saber Rattling
//British and Guatemalan negotiators are meeting
in Panama today and tomorrow to work on a draft treaty to set-
tle the territorial dispute over the self-governing British
colony of Belize. The talks are the latest in a long series
held among the three parties involved in the dispute. Little
progress is likely to be made on solving the key issue of a
territorial cession to Guatemala.//
//The Guatemalan military is holding military exer-
cises he Belize border with the apparent intention of in-
fluencing the outcome of the talks. The exercises, which involve
practice parachute drops, live firing training, and patrol boat
maneuvers, are probably no more than saber rattling. Nonethe-
less, the possibility of a Guatemalan military strike into
southern Belize should the talks end in acrimony cannot be
discounted. //
I 7T //Guatemalan President Laugerud recently told a
visiting tate Department official that his negotiators in
Panama will bring up the territorial question in the expecta-
tion that the UK will eventually make counterproposals. He said
that Guatemala is prepared to give up its claim to the majority
of the colony and settle instead for a portion of the south.
Laugerud emphasized that Guatemala needs a piece of Belizean
territory to save face.//
/Laugerud said that if the talks should fail and
the were to grant unilateral independence to Belize, he
would have no recourse but to take military action against
Belize. He noted, however, that Guatemala wanted to take all
possible steps to avoid hostilities.
-CIA, DIA, NSA-
JAMAICA: Aluminum Negotiations
Jamaica reportedly is nearing a settlement of its
two-year contract dispute with three US aluminum companies.
The dispute centers around Jamaican demands that the
companies renegotiate contracts permitting Jamaica to purchase
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up to 51 percent of each company's bauxite operation and allow-
ing reversion to Jamaica of unexploited bauxite reserves in ex-
cess of 25 years' needs. Jamaica also wants the companies to
ratify a 600-percent increase in taxes on bauxite and alumina
production and minimum output levels.
Jamaica reached preliminary agreement with Alcoa
last week, and a final accord is expected to be signed in Octo-
ber. Jamaica has already reached agreements in principle with
the remaining two companies, Kaiser and Reynolds, which are
now pressing for final settlement. Details of the agreements
were not announced.
Prime Minister Manley is anxious for early ratifica-
tion of is demands in order to enhance his candidacy in the
elections, expected by early 1977. The companies favor early
agreements because they believe Manley would take a tougher
stand following an election victory.
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A politically provocative sermon read Sunday by
Protestant pastors has heightened tensions between church and
state in East Germany.
The sermon was approved last week by Evangelical
151s ops, who had been shaken by the public immolation last
month of one of their pastors who had taken an active interest
in youth affairs. The bishops not only repudiated the regime's
contention that the suicide was the act of a demented man, but
also called upon the church to bear "political witness" and
criticized its own past silence on problems in East German
society. The sermon's outspoken appeal to stand "unequivocally
and more convincingly" on the side of youth will increase un-
ease in the party hierarchy.
The party would bably prefer to avoid an open
po emic with the church.
Party-leaders will probably fall back on the familiar
tactic o attempting to divide church ranks by encouraging pro-
government church leaders to express their opposition to the
stand of the bishops.
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