NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029300010020-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 3, 2006
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: September 13, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 0
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Monday September 13, 1976
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Monday, September 13, 1976.
The NID Cable is tor the purpose ot intorming
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Situation Report
JAPAN: Political Compromise
ANGOLA: Neto's Status
Page 1
Page 2
Page 3
CHINA: Mourning Ceremonies
CHILE: Anniversary
Page 5
Page 6
SOUTH AFRICA: Rioting
Page 6
USSR: Promotions
Page 8
GREECE-TURKEY: Aegean
Page 9
EC: IMF Gold Sales
Page 10
SOUTH KOREA - INDONESIA: Arms Agreement
Page 11
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LEBANON: Situation Report
Syrian officials held further discussions in Damascus
I is wee end with Lebanese and other Arab emissaries. The on-
going talks are intended to facilitate the transfer of power
to Lebanese president-elect Sarkis on September 23 and to pre-
pare for an Arab summit on Lebanon that is scheduled for late
October.
I Lebanese Prime Minister Karami arrived in Damascus
yesterday, presumably to learn Syria's views of his future role
once Sarkis is inaugurated. Retention of Karami as prime minis-
ter would be strongly opposed by right-wing Christian leaders
such as President Franjiyah and Interior Minister Shamun.
I Although the Syrians probably would prefer that Ka-
on, they may not want to risk undermining efforts by
Sarkis to secure the cooperation of the more extreme Christian
leaders.
I IKarami is also likely to discuss Muslim views on how
to reso ve the Lebanese crisis. He is a prominent leader of the
National Unity Front, a grouping of traditional Muslim and
Christian leaders formed last June to strengthen the hand of
old-line Lebanese politicians in future peace negotiations.
Arab League mediator Hassan Sabri a7,-Khuli, who was
expected to return to Beirut on Saturday, remained in Damascus
until yesterday.
I Various press reports have speculated that al-Khuli
Lnrurn= from consultations in Cairo with new proposals to end
the fighting when Sarkis takes office. His immediate concern,
however, probably is preventing further attacks by the various
warring factions against Arab League troops stationed in Leba-
non.
Other Arab envoys were in Damascus this weekend to
iscuss preparations for the Arab summit on Lebanon. Tunisian
Foreign Minister Chatti, the current chairman of the Arab League
Council, conferred with Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam on
Saturday; yesterday, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud held
talks with Syrian President Asad.
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Fighting remained at a low level throughout Lebanon
this weekend. Sporadic shelling occurred in Beirut and its
suburbs and in central and northern Lebanon
JAPAN: Political Compromise
Prime Minister Miki and his opponents in the ruling
Liberal Democratic Party averted a showdown Saturday when the
cabinet agreed to convene an extraordinary Diet session this
Thursday.
I The decision followed a day of intensive bargaining
which resulted in a three-point compromise. It essentially in-
volves:
--Miki's appearance before a party caucus tomorrow, at
which the Prime Minister will publicly pledge not to dis-
solve the Diet precipitously and call a general election.
--Convening the Diet on Thursday to pass a number of
pending fiscal bills.
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--Calling a special party convention in October at which
Miki almost certainly will be removed as party president.
Both sides gave ground in working out the compromise.
ici won his opponent's agreement to drop their demand for his
resignation prior to the opening of the Diet.
I To do so, he apparently threatened Saturday to re-
place e dissenting Cabinet ministers with his own loyalists,
convene the Diet, and then dissolve it and call elections if
the impasse continued. His opponents clearly preferred to make
some concessions to the Prime Minister rather than provoke an
open party split.
Even so, the compromise has significantly limited
1 i s room for maneuver by requiring him to publicly state
that he will not suddenly dissolve the Diet and call general
elections. Miki's rivals will certainly publicize his pledge
tomorrow to help ensure against any dissolution before the
convention is held.
I I Meanwhile--as another part of the deal--Miki is re-
portedly preparing to reshuffle cabinet and party posts, possib-
ly sometime this week.
I Notwithstanding the party's attention to legislative
business, Miki's respite is likely to be brief. His opponents
will almost certainly press for rapid action on the pending
bills, and with elections now only three months away, for hold-
ing the party convention--and replacing Miki--earlier rather
than later next month.
I n another weekend development, the Soviets seized
three small Japanese fishing boats off the disputed, Soviet-held
islands near Hokkaido. Although such seizures are routine, the
Japanese press is noting that these took place at about the
same time that Foreign Minister Miyazawa was on an inspection
cruise near the islands.
AAngolan President Agostinho Neto appears to have made
gains in is power struggle with radical groups within the rul-
ing Popular Movement.
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In the months immediately following the Popular Move-
men s military victory, Neto and other mulatto political
leaders have been restricted in their efforts to establish na-
tional policies by black radicals within the party's military
hierarchy. Flushed with victory and backed by the Cuban and So-
viet presence, these radical military leaders opposed broad-
ening Angola's economic and political ties, reconciling with
former rivals, and establishing a multiracial state.
I I Neto is on record in favor of nonalignment and a
mu iracial state. he also favors a
reconciliation with the two rival nationalist groups that would
allow their members--but not their top leaders--to participate
in the new Angolan government.
I I During recent months, Neto
visible and vocal than he was earlier
many speeches and interviews in which
racialism, denounced party disunity,
ment.
I Within the past two weeks,
has
been
considerably more
in
the
year. He has given
he
has
stressed multi-
and
supported nonalign-
Neto
has moved to broaden
Angola's foreign ties, suggesting that his authority within the
Popular Movement has been strengthened. He recently accepted an
ambassador from Sweden and is pushing to resume relations with
Lisbon. He apparently hopes that ties with Portugal will help
build bridges to other Western European countries and facili-
tate Angola's admission to the United Nations.
I Portuguese Socialist Party officials who recently
visited uanda--at Neto's invitation--came away with the im-
pression that Neto's political strength and personal self-
confidence are growing.
I Since the end of the civil war, Angola has been al-
most o ally dependent on Cuban and Soviet assistance. The Cu-
bans are helping government counterinsurgency operations, re-
building transportation facilities, providing social services,
and training the Angolan army. The Soviets have provided some
military advisers and civilian technical assistants.
Angola's economy needs Western technology and markets,
however, if it is to revive quickly. The country's lucrative
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commercial agriculture and diamond mining operations, for exam-
ple, need access to the West before they can return to normal
operations.
Efforts by Neto to put some distance between his gov-
ernment and Moscow and Havana will not go unchallenged by the
military radicals of the Popular Movement who owe their strength
to Communist assistance.
CHINA: Mourning Ceremonies
All active members of the Chinese Politburo, includ-
ing those based in the provinces, have stood vigil over the
body of Mao Tse-tung in the official mourning ceremonies that
began Saturday. The leaders were listed in order of political
rank, revealing no changes thus far in the pecking order.
The official news agency made special mention of a
wreath from Mao's wife, Chiang Ching, signed also by other
members of his family. The wreath was given pride of place be-
side the bier. Despite her general lack of political popularity,
Chiang Ching will evidently be accorded all the honors due the
widow of the chairman, at least during the mourning period.
Leaders from 15 of China's 21 provinces have also
been present during the lying-in-state ceremonies, including
several province chiefs linked to the ousted Teng Hsiao-ping
who have appeared infrequently. Missing from the group, however,
are three government officials also associated with Teng.
Peking has published condolence messages from 10
provinces and from five of China's 11 military regions. The
most important of these during the succession period is the
Peking Military Region, which sent a long message pledging
loyalty to the party Central Committee.
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CHILE: Anniversary
The Pinochet government, which marked its third anni-
versary on Saturday, shows no signs of moderating its tough in-
ternal security practices or making any substantial concessions
in the area of human rights.
In his anniversary speech, President Pinochet reiter-
ated the regime's hard-line views and indicated that new decrees
would soon be issued further restricting political activity.
The crackdown is aimed at the Christian Democrats and the church--
the government's principal domestic critics.
The junta's promulgation of several acts to be in-
cluded in a new constitution apparently will institutionalize
the authoritarian practices now being followed. The expansive
guarantees of human rights promised by Pinochet at the OAS meet-
ing in Santiago last June are still largely being ignored by
the security forces. The Interior Ministry has announced that
205 political prisoners were being released, but the state-of-
siege has been extended for another six months.
I I Pinochet gave no hint on Saturday that changes in
economic policies are planned,
Despite some improvements
economic conditions, ere a n no overall recovery, ac-
cording to the US.embassy.
SOUTH AFRICA: Rioting
Rioting by "coloreds" in the Cape Town area peaked
late as week and has now generally subsided. The death toll
reached more than 30, and in several instances the rioting spilled
over into adjacent white communities with much property damage.
I I The recent disturbances in Cape Town have apparently
genera e a confrontation psychology on the part of the whites,
who are reported to be rapidly arming themselves. In two sep-
arate incidents around Cape Town, white civilians shot and
killed two "coloreds" and wounded several others--the first re-
corded incidents of this nature since the rioting began last
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June. Recurrences are likely because whites and "coloreds" still
live side by side in some residential sections of Cape Town.
I IElsewhere in the country, there was a minor riot in
a acc township near Pretoria on Saturday. Although there have
been no major riots since last Thursday, continuing outbreaks
of sporadic violence in widely separated parts of the country
make it difficult to predict where and when disturbances may
next occur.
I Rhodesian Prime Minister Ian Smith and two cabinet 25X1
ministers reportedly were to arrive in Pretoria yesterday for
talks with Prime Minister Vorster. F7 I 25X1
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25X1 KGB Chairman Yury Andropov and Minister of Internal
Affairs Nikolay Shchelokov have each been promoted one grade to
the rank of General of the Army, according to a decree of the
Supreme Soviet.
I uIn both cases, the promotions mean that the political
figure eading the government agency is now one grade higher
than the professional soldier commanding the militarized units
subordinate to that agency.
25X1 Andropov, a Politburo member, now outranks Colonel
Genera . A. Matrosov, chief of the KGB's Border Troops, as
well as all other KGB officials. Shchelokov, a full member of
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the Central Committee, similarly outranks Colonel General I. K.
Yakovlev, Chief of the MVD's Internal Troops, and all other MVD
officials.
I IThe promotions for Andropov and Shchelokov are the
irs or any Soviet leaders since late July, when Defense Min-
ister Dmitry Ustinov became a Marshal of the Soviet Union. Coming
on the heels of Ustinov's promotion and the earlier elevation
of General Secretary Brezhnev to Marshal of the Soviet Union,
they may produce some agitation from the professional military
for promotions for themselves if they are not already in train.
It is conceivable that military promotions are being
saved or a major announcement in early November at the cere-
monies marking the anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution.
GREECE-TURKEY: Aegean
I The rejection by the international Court of Justice
on a ur ay of the Greek appeal for a temporary ban on Turkish
oil exploration in disputed Aegean waters will probably cause
the Greeks to negotiate seriously with the Turks.
The Court also rejected the Turkish request to drop
the case altogether, but the Turks may now feel confident enough
to stick to their maximum demands. This would limit the pros-
pects for progress if the meeting between the Greek and Turkish
foreign. ministers takes place as scheduled in New York later
this month.
The Greek government has tried to put the best face on
I e our 's decision. The government-run television service
quoted unnamed "legal circles" on Saturday as saying that the
decision had been expected in light of the earlier UN Security
Council resolution urging restraint and bilateral talks before
resorting to the Court.
As "positive" points, the unspecified sources noted
that the Court's action leaves open the possibility of a ruling
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on the substance of the dispute and that Turkey is now bound by
its statement that its oil exploration does not prejudice Greek
rights.
I IThe Caramanlis government doubtless is concerned that
its policy of countering Turkish moves only by diplomatic and
other peaceful means will prompt more criticism from parts of
the opposition and the military as well as the public. Caramanlis
doubtless will be hoping that the Turks will not be emboldened
by the Court's decision to test Greek resolve further.
The EC monetary committee agreed Friday to back
Italy's proposal to seek a change in International Monetary
Fund gold sales policy, but refused to ask for a postponement
of the auction scheduled for September 15.
I IMF directors from EC countries will ask the Fund
executive committee to consider possibilities for "being more
flexible in techniques of selling gold." Changes might involve
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delaying the scheduling of future auctions, increasing the time
between auctions, or reducing the amount of gold offered per
auction.
I //Italy, which still has relatively large gold re-
serves, con irmed on Thursday that it is asking the IMF to hold
gold auctions less frequently because of the depressing effects
they have on world gold prices. The Italians have just completed
a renegotiation of their gold-backed loan from West Germany and,
because of past declines in the price of gold, took the option
of reducing the amount of their loan rather than increasing
their gold collateral.//
//Changes in the gold price could necessitate
either a further alteration of the credit or an increase in
the amount of gold pledged as collateral.//
//France, with the second largest gold reserve in
the EC, and e UK were Italy's strongest supporters at the
committee meeting. West Germany, which has the largest gold
holdings in Europe, has expressed little concern about the fall
in gold prices.//
//The gold issue will be discussed at the IMF
meeting in Manila early next month. If the EC receives support
from some industrial and developing countries, it will increase
the pressure on the US to agree to a more flexible scheduling
of future IMF gold sales.//
The EC monetary committee announcement had an almost
immediate effect on the price of gold. The London afternoon
fixing was $115.70 per ounce, up from $114.00 on Friday morn-
ing.
SOUTH KOREA - INDONESIA: Arms Agreement
Indonesia concluded a $35-million military sales
agreement with South Korea early this month. According to the
US defense attache in Seoul, South Korea has agreed to construct
four guided-missile patrol boats for the Indonesian navy at a.
shipyard near Pusan. South Korea extended credit to the Indone-
sians to close the deal, and the first patrol boat is scheduled
for delivery in three years.
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I I Under the terms of the arms agreement--the first be-
tween the two countries--South Korea will build the ships and
Indonesia will provide the weapons and surveillance systems.
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//The Indonesian Ministry of Defense has been seek-
ing to diversify and upgrade the navy's inventory. The South
Korean boat will give the Indonesians the fast patrol boat that
they have wanted to improve the navy's capability to monitor
ships entering Indonesian waters.// 25X1-
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