NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029300010006-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 13, 2012
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: September 3, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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0 NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday September 3, 1976 CI NIDC 76-208C 0
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
AMENNO
Top Secret
(Security Classification)
9 25X1
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Friday, September
e Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
USSR: Kosygin's Health
LEBANON: Situation Report
KOREA: Reaction to Fishing
CONTENTS
Boat's Capture
THE NETHERLANDS: Lockheed Investigation
SPAIN: Decisions on Reform Imminent
UK: Trade Union Congress Meeting
MEXICO: Echeverria's Speech
Page 1
Page 2
Page 3
Page 5
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USSR: Kosygin's Health
Deputy Premier, announced yesterday, is an initial step to deal
organizationally with the serious illness of Premier Kosygin.
The Soviet ambassador to Czechoslovakia told the US ambassador
on Wednesday that Kosygin, 72, had suffered a heart attack and
was now resting in a sanitarium.
The appointment of Nikolay Tikhonov as Soviet First
the other is Kirill Mazurov, who has held the post since 1965.
Tikhonov, 71, is General Secretary Brezhnev's protege and one
of many officials with ties to Brezhnev's old region of Dnepro-
petrovsk in the Ukraine. He made his early career in metallurgy
and as deputy premier has been responsible for that field and
the coal industry.
Tikhonov becomes one of two first deputy premiers;
in early August, was a true myocardial infarction, he has al-
ready survived the most life-threatening phase of his illness.
Individuals his age who have not developed major complications
within three to four weeks have almost a normal life expectancy.
If Kosygin's "heart attack," which probably. occurred
and is prospects following a serious attack for regaining suf-
ficient strength to resume a vigorous schedule are not good. In
any event, Kosygin's convalescence would probably last at least
another month.
Kosygin, however, has not been well for some time,
with the --heavy workload that Kosygin has carried. Brezhnev un-
doubtedly welcomed the opportunity to place an ally that high
in the government to counterbalance the more independent
Mazurov. Tikhonov may also be elected to the Politburo; Mazurov
is already a member, as was former first deputy premier Polyan--
sky.
The leadership may have promoted Tikhonov to help
tion of replacing him. Brezhnev continued his vacation in the
Crimea and did not return to Moscow until this week, when the
decision on Tikhonov was probably taken. Brezhnev left Moscow
yesterday for Kazakhstan.
and has given no sign that Kosygin's illness raises the ques-
The leadership has behaved routinely in recent weeks
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the job. Brezhnev may have wanted to ensure that his man,
Tikhonov, served as first deputy in such an eventuality.
cessor appears to be an open question. Mazurov, who rose in
the Belorussian party organization, has the clearest claim to
If Kosygin should retire or die, however, his suc-
from public view all summer. He saw Brezhnev off to Kazakhstan,
his first appearance since early June. His promotion would
break the hold of the older generation on the top leadership
posts.
Mazurov, 62, is in indifferent health and was absent
Tikhonov could conceivably replace Kosygin but prob-
ably only after serving a period on the Politburo. His close
association with Brezhnev would probably work against him with
Kosygin and other members of the collective. He also is a mem-
ber of the party's elder generation and could not be expected
to be a long-term premier.
lthough other choices for the premiership are also
possible, the Mazurov-Tikhonov pairing has a temporary appear-
ance and does not seem entirely suitable to serve under another
premier. Both men are industrialists and do not complement
each other as did Mazurov and Polyansky, an agriculturalist.
LEBANON: Situation Report
The failure of President Asad and Lebanese president-
elect Sarkis to comment on the results of their private meeting
Tuesday has led to broad speculation in Beirut that they had
major disagreements.
Sarkis failed to
reach an understanding with sa on to issue of Syrian troops
in Lebanon. Press services quoting East European sources allege
that Sarkis asked Asad to withdraw his troops but was told they
would remain in Lebanon as long as fighting continued.
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Palestinians have said they repulsed a Christian attack near
Alma and engaged Christian troops near Chekka. Artillery duels
and minor clashes continued in the south around Jazzin, in the
Mount Lebanon area, and in Beirut. Although both sides are rein-
forcing their positions in these areas, there has been only a
limited intensification in the fighting.
The military situation remains relatively calm. The
n Minister Allon reiterated on Tuesday
li Forei
I
g
srae
that his government will not tolerate a resumption of Palestin-
ian terrorist attacks against northern Israel from bases in
southern Lebanon. Allon's statement comes on the heels of
clashes between Christian and Palestinian forces in the south-
ern Lebanese village of"Ayn Ibil, where villagers reportedly
have requested Israeli military protection.
Lebanese leftist sources charged yesterday that Isra-
eli troops and armored units had crossed the border in large
numbers. We have no confirmation of this, however, and it seems
likely that the Israelis so far have provided Christian troops
in the south only limited support.
I li units have for some time conducted patrols
observation pos s
guard against terrorist intimidation of southern Lebanese vil-
lagers and renewed cross-border terrorist raids. This patroll-
ing probably has been increased. Earlythis'week Israeli artil-
lery units reportedly shelled sus ected Palestinian ositions
near the border.
s rae
along access routes on both sides of the border and occupied
t in southern Lebanon during daylight hours to
KOREA: Reaction to Fishing Boat's Capture
r
and moderation to inquiries from Seoul about the South Korean
th Korea has responded with unusual promptness
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fishing boat that strayed inadvertently into Northern waters
earlier this week. Pyongyang may wish to avoid any steps that
might complicate the negotiations on North Korea's proposal
for new security arrangements in the Panmunjom Joint Security
Area.
I t=
North Korean Red Cross yesterday, the North indicated i
ts will-
ingness to cooperate in arranging an early release, provided
Seoul confirms the identity of the boat and crew. In the past,
the North has routinely delayed responding and then charged
the South with provocation.
In a statement on thE! boat incident issued b th
ior since the August 18 Panmunjom incident; it has attempted
to portray itself as the more responsible party advancing con-
structive proposals for easing tensions allegedly provoked by
the US and South Korea. Pyongyang has also recently toned down
its propaganda somewhat, while continuing to warn that the dan-
North Korea's response is consistent with its behav-
ger of US-initiated hostilities has greatly increased.
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THE NETHERLANDS: Lockheed Investigation
Lockheed and other firms may have influenced Queen Juliana
not to abdicate last week.//
Prince Bern and for alleged improprieties in dealings with
//The possibility of criminal proceedings against
Prime Minister den Uyl reportedly warned the Queen that he
might not be able to block criminal prosecution if she abdi-
cated.//
conclusive evidence on most of the charges against Bernhard,
//Although the Donner Commission failed to develop
//A complicating factor for the Queen and the cabi-
net was Princess Beatrix' reported reluctance to succeed her
mother and the government's reported refusal to accept a regency
for the nine-year-old Prince William.//
as part possible understanding with the cabinet, may have
agreed to postpone abdication--perhaps until after the parlia-
mentary election next May.//
//The Dutch press has speculated that the Queen,
possible bribery of members of parliament in connection with
recent military procurement contracts comes at a time when
similar concerns are deepening in other West European coun-
tries.//
//The Dutch government's decision to investigate
that it began reviewing aircraft deals with Lockheed six months
ago. The Norwegian government also has indicated that it is
preparing to do the same and will request material from the US
Senate Foreign Relations Committee to assist its investigation.//
//The Greek government announced earlier this week
to determine the validity of charges in a newsmagazine that
//West Germany has already requested such material
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opposition leader Franz Josef Strauss--a former defense minis-
ter--accepted payoffs in the ccntract for F-104 Lockheed Star-
fighters in the early 1960s. Strauss and his party have char-
acterized the Schmidt government's action as a political maneu-
ver to discredit them in the four weeks remaining before the
national elections.//
ter in a $1-million bribery scandal. The deal is alleged to
have taken place during the Conservative Heath administration.
A Labor member of Parliament is seeking an official inquiry,
perhaps in the hope of uncovering evidence that would hurt the
Tories.//
a former Lockheed executive has implicated an ex-cabinet minis-
//Two British dailies have published reports that
a leftist magazine has published documents purportedly showing
that Prime Minister Andreotti accepted $28,000 from Lockheed
in connection with aircraft sales. Andreotti has denied the
allegation; at present, the press remains skeptical about the
story.//
//Other allegations have surfaced in Italy where
in Madrid are implicated in illegal business dealings and is
speculating that the Justice Ministry will soon release infor-
//The Spanish press is saying again that officials
mation linking government officials to Lockheed Payoffs
SPAIN: Decisions on Reform Imminent
the timetable and details of its reform program by September 15,
according to Second Deputy Prime Minister Alfonso Osorio.
The Spanish government will make a final decision on
and King Juan Carlos, assured the US ambassador this week that
newspaper reports of a delay in the constitutional referendum--
scheduled by the previous government for October--were errone-
ous. He could not give a specific date for the referendum or
the parliamentary election, but he emphasized that the govern-
ment was doing everything it could to speed up the process.
Osorio, who is close to both Prime Minister Suarez
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wishes to delay until after the meeting on Saturday of the
Democratic Coordination--an alliance of opposition parties that
includes the Communists.
out opposition leaders was one reason for the delay in complet-
ina the details of the program. In particular, the government
According to Osorio, the government's effort to sound
moved a considerable way toward de facto toleration of the
Communists.
certain opposition leaders--at least in public--on legalization
of the Communist Party as the price the government must pay for
cooperation by the left. The government has refused but has
The main stumbling block remains the insistence of
by the government's decision last weekend to ban the media from
reporting on documents being considered by the cabinet. The ban,
apparently designed to curtail leakage of deliberations until
the decisions have been made, has aroused opposition suspicion
about the government's sincerity.
Government-opposition cooperation may also be hampered
tional referendum in favor of a much simpler formula which,
after approval by parliament, would be submitted to referendum.
whether o scrap the previous government's detailed constitu-
Osorio confirmed that the cabinet is considering
UK: Trade Union Congress Meeting
the British economy will be the main theme at the annual meet-
ing of the Trades Union Congress next week. Conference topics
will include the country's record postwar unemployment rate,
cuts in public spending, long-term wage restraint, and indus-
trial democracy.//
//The labor movement's concern over the state of
ficu ?y winning support for the new "social contract," the
social-economic principles governing its alliance with the La-
bor Party. Labor will also probably endorse again the current
wage guidelines; earlier this summer a special Congress meet-
ing approved the "phase two" guidelines by a 20-1 margin.//
//The Congress leadership should have little dif-
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union cooperation in restraining wages. Prices, which increased
at an annual rate of 12.5 percent during the first seven months
of this year, rose only 0.2 percent in July.//
inflation has slowed noticeably this year largely because of
//Consumer prices rose 24.2 percent in 1975 but
ever, consumer prices are expected to increase somewhat more
rapidly in the next few months as the higher cost of imported
materials and fuels reaches the retail level. In addition,
Britain's worst drought ever will push food prices--and consumer
prices in general--up even further. A single-digit inflation
rate is not likely before the second quarter of next year.//
//Because of the March-June drop in sterling. how-
earnings, since basic pay increases are limited to a 4.5-percent
average for the year ending next July. Average earnings, how-
ever, are likely to rise an ad&itional 2 to 4 percent.//
//Continued inflation will cut into workers' real
which hit a new high of 1.5 million in August, will probably ~
begin to decline gradually by the end of the year, the pros-
pect of persistently high unemployment will continue to strain
government-union relations.//
but unemployment is another matter. Although the jobless rate
//Most workers will go along with wage restraint
//Public sector unions, whose members will bear
the run o planned government cuts in public spending, have
been pressing the powerful manufacturing-based unions to re-
sist further spending cuts which the government might have to
make this winter. As an alternative, one large union is call-
ing for import controls and tightened currency exchange regu-
lations.//
//Union leaders were apparently unable to persuade
rime minister Callaghan to take new measures to spur employ-
ment during a lengthy meeting earlier this week. The Labor
government allocated more than $750 million over the last year
to save or create jobs, and announced last month a $43-million
program to create jobs for marginally trained youths entering
the labor market.//
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still takes priority. There have been some hints that the gov-
ernment may give the unions a formal role in initiating inves-
tigations of alleged dumping by foreign manufacturers.//
snirt in economic policy at a time when controlling inflation
//Callaghan is unlikely to agree to any basic
lective import controls. Although the Labor government has op-
posed controls on grounds that they are counterproductive and
invite retaliation, Callaghan is keeping the door open in case
he concludes they would improve relations with the unions.//
moreover, to grant some minor concessions in the area of se-
//Callaghan might find it politically expedient,
temporarily imposed controls last December on imports of shoes,
textile goods, and TV sets and components. The controls were
largely token, however, covering only about 1 percent of Brit-
ish imports. At present, the most likely candidates for con-
trols are textiles, shoes, and appliances.//
//Largely in response to union pressures, London
in Britain's foreign trade balance to justify import restraints.
After a trade deficit of $837 million in the first quarter,
Britain registered a deficit of $1.7 billion in the second
quarter and $933 million in July. The substantial worsening of
the trade account was due to a sharp rise in the volume of im-
ports, particularly North Sea oil and gas equipment, and slower
growth in exports.//
//The unions also can point to the deterioration
clear indication of union attitudes toward wage controls after
"phase two" pay guidelines expire next summer. Most unions
prefer a return to free collective bargaining. But they also
recognize the need for a planned and orderly return that would.
avoid runaway wage demands and reduce the danger of rekindling
inflation.//
/The meeting next week should also provide a
initiating and administering wage controls, but have had a bad
record in ending them. It is still too early to predict with
certainty that Britain will do better this time, but if the
unemployment situation has improved by next spring, the unions
and the government would be in a unique position to consider
//The British have had considerable success in
a long-term wage restraint program.
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MEXICO: Echeverria's Speech
President Echeverria's state of the union speech on Wednesday,
together with Echeverria's remarks on the presidential succes-
sion, seem designed to dispel fears that Echeverria is reluc-
tant to step down and in fact intends to extend his term of of-
fice.
The attendance by president-elect Lopez Portillo at
supreme mandate of the republic to Jose Lopez Portillo with all
my hopes and certainties as a Mexican citizen." He defended his
continuing intense activity in office, which some feel is an
indication that he does not want to relinquish political con-
trol, by saying that to do less would create a political vacuum
in which "minority groups" would impose their will upon the
majority.
istic rule, Echeverria said, "I shall therefore turn over the
Declaring that Mexico had passed the age of personal-
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plained his decision to float the peso and outlined the policy
t
praised i.s administration's accomplishments. Echeverria ex-
The remainder of his six-hour speech defended and
o accompany it. He took a few oblique but unmistakable swipes
at the US, but in the US embassy's view, the criticisms were
generally milder and less direct than in his past speeches.
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