NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029200010048-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2005
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: August 28, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Saturday August 28, 1976 CI NIDC 76-203C
State Department review completed
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday August 28, 1976.
The NID Cable is for th e purpose o informing
senior US officials.
EGYPT-LIBYA: Military Preparations
LEBANON: Situation Report
FRANCE: New Cabinet Named
IRELAND: State of Emergency
USSR-SYRIA-LEBANON: Call for Withdrawal
SPAIN: Austerity Measures Announced
CORRECTION
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EGYPT-LIBYA: Military Preparations
//Egypt is continuing its military preparations on
the Libyan border, and// Tripoli's media have begun preparing
the Libyan people for the possibility of an Egyptian attack.
I he Egyptians
have begun to move main ground force units to the border. On
Thursday, the US ambassador saw 10 Egyptian tanks on rail cars
headed west from Alexandria.
Cairo is also continuing its efforts to in-
imidate Libyan President Qadhafi. Egyptian Foreign Minister
Fahmi said in an interview yesterday that he considers that
"Qadhafi's presence on the Arab map is undesirable."
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Recent Tripoli newspaper editorials have emphasized
the danger that war with Egypt is imminent. Editorialists cite
as their evidence the Egyptian buildup on the border, President
Sadat's rejection of all mediation attempts during the non-
aligned summit, and the alleged upsurge in Egyptian subversion
attempts in Libya. Libyan authorities this week arrested three
Egyptians who they say were sent to collect intelligence and
conduct sabotage.
One editorial has suggested that all of the approxi-
mately 250,000 Egyptians working in Libya will be expelled in
the event of an Eavpti attack, andi
1 adhafi recently asked ministry heads
-co study rne a e impact on their departments if Egyptian
functionaries are removed.
It is unlikely that all Egyptian workers would be
sent home, but the Libyans might be considering the expulsion
of a symbolic number, to serve as a warning to Egypt.
LEBANON: Situation Report
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tinuing to mee
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Arab League mediators in Beirut are con-
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peace plan. According to one account, the plan includes a re-
quirement that Syria pull its troops back from both Sawfar and
Jazzin, with Arab League forces taking their places.
This provision may already have disrupted the negotia-
tions. A meeting between the League mediators and Christian
leaders yesterday was described by the leftist radio as "not
positive," and there were other indications that it ended on a
sour note.
I I As of Thursday, ten of the necessary eleven Arab coun-
tries a officially notified the Arab League of their willing-
ness to attend a summit meeting. Several countries who have pub-
licly endorsed the move have delayed a formal response, includ-
ing Saudi Arabia--which, along with Kuwait, issued the initial
call for a summit--and Egypt.
The assistant secretary general of the Arab League is
thinking of advancing to September 1, the council of ministers'
meeting scheduled for September 4, but there has been no deci-
sion about a time or place for holding a summit.
//There were exchanges of fire along Beirut's
confrontation lines yesterday, particularly in Ayn Rummanah and
the southern suburbs near the airport.//
//The leftist press has reported that units of
President Franjiyah's militia attacked several villages on the
outskirts of Tripoli but were repulsed.
Activity in the mountains east of Beirut yesterday
was once again limited to artillery fire.
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The new French cabinet and sub-cabinet named yesterday
generally reflects the political balance of its predecessor,
although the Gaullists and centrists did lose some ground. Many
members continue in the same or similar posts, and major policy
changes are unlikely.
The appointment of Prime Minister Raymond Barre, a
technocrat and the first non-Gaullist to hold the post under
the Fifth Republic, tends to move the government a step closer
to the center-left and to strengthen President Giscard's per-
sonal control. Giscard emphasized both these aims in public
statements soon after naming Barre.
The Gaullists--who hold the largest block of the
governing coalition's seats in the Assembly--were mollified
somewhat by the retention of Defense Minister Bourges and
especially by the appointment of Olivier Guichard as justice
minister, generally considered the government's number-two post.
Guichard will hold the rank of minister-of-state, which will
entitle him to act for the Prime Minister in Barre's absence.
Guichard, a respected minister under president
Pompidou, has been mentioned as the only serious rival to former
prime minister Chirac for control of the Gaullists. Although he
has recently been associated with the hard-liners, Guichard is
considered a moderate and has good relations with members of
other parties. His presence in the cabinet may make it more
difficult for Chirac to criticize Giscard's reforms and his
wooing of the left.
Guichard replaces centrist leader Jean Lecanuet, who
was reportedly unhappy over the adverse publicity that a justice
minister draws. Lecanuet, who retains his title of minister-of-
state, will move to the Ministry for Planning and Regional Devel-
opment. His down-grading is partly balanced by the naming of
centrist Michel Durafour as deputy finance minister. The Prime
Minister, an economic expert, as is the President, will hold
the finance portfolio himself.
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I IGiscard's Independent Republicans continue to be rep-
resented at the top by Interior Minister and Minister of State
Michel Poniatowski, who is the President's close friend and
collaborator, and by Industry Minister Michel d'Ornano.
Louis de Guiringaud, a career diplomat who previously
headed the French UN delegation, was named foreign minister.
This choice indicates that Giscard intends to continue to dominate
foreign policy, but wants a tough negotiator to carry out his
orders. De Guiringaud is reportedly an expert on third-world
affairs, an area on which the President is said to believe France
must concentrate now.
I IGiscard probably had to make some last-minute adjust-
ments 1n he top posts--bringing in Guichard, for example--to
compensate for the departure of Chirac, whom he probably hoped
to retain until after the March 1977 municipal elections. Other-
wise, the shifts seem to be in line with the shuffle expected
at this time as Giscard weeds out incompetents, prepares to
push his program through the Parliament, and tries to win support
on the left.
I I Most interesting in the last regard is the appointment
o Pierre Brousse as minister of commerce. Brousse was a member
of the left wing of the Radical Party, which is in the Communist-
Socialist opposition alliance. Early this year he joined the
Radical Party rump, which participates in the governing coalition.
His presence in the cabinet underscores the President's desire
to draw less radical leftists into a broader governing coalition.
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IRELAND: State of Emergency
//The Irish government's unprecedented call this
wee tor parliament to declare a state of emergency and sus-
pend the constitution reflects the seriousness of the security
situation in both parts of Ireland.//
//The government is asking for sweeping powers to
detain, arrest, and prosecute suspected terrorists or those sus-
pected of supporting terrorist activities. These measures are
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aimed primarily against the provisional wing of the Irish Re-
publican Army. Initial reaction has been mixed and Prime Minis-
ter Cosgrave risks strong criticism over the proposals, al-
though parliament, which meets in special session Tuesday, will
probably endorse them eventually.//
//The government move was sparked by
tion ol ie ritish ambassador to Ireland on July
jailbreak by suspected IRA prisoners, the bombing
hotels, presumably by an Ulster Protestant group,
the
21,
assassina-
but a
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six tourist
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and
other acts
of violence probably contributed to the decision to take tough
action.
//The opposition Fianna Fail, Ireland's largest
par y, may be divided over the new proposals, but will find it
difficult to reject them without appearing to side with the
terrorists. If the Fianna Fail opposes the proposals, it could
delay their enactment for several months despite the govern-
ment's narrow majority in parliament.//
//Should the government encounter stiff opposition,
Cosgrave might call early elections, hoping to get a stronger
mandate for tightened security as well as for the economic aus-
terity program he intends to introduce next year.//
//With an annual inflation rate of 28 percent for
e first half of 1976 and unemployment over 10 percent, the
government faces grave economic problems that may become worse
in 1977. Control of strikes, work slowdowns, and boycotts, which
have dogged the country's economic recovery, might be easier
by the government during a state of emergency.
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Statements carried by Soviet media have for the first
time called for the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon.
These pronouncements may be a step toward official government
advocacy of Syrian withdrawal, which would be a significant
change in Soviet policy.
A Moscow radio broadcast yesterday stated that "the
withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon would be very important
for normalizing the situation." The Soviet Afro-Asian Peoples'
Solidarity Committee on Thursday called for the withdrawal of
Syrian forces. Speakers at a public rally staged in Tashkent
on Thursday stressed that the "Soviet people" are calling for
Syrian withdrawal.
I None of these represents an official view, but they
all ref ect the Soviets' increasing concern about the declining
fortunes of the Palestinians.
I Moscow does not want to antagonize the Syrians any
more an necessary, however, and for that reason may have chosen
unofficial means to support publicly the Palestinian cause.
SPAIN: Austerity Measures Announced
Spain has announced a package of mild economic auster-
ity measures that will do little to ease inflation or the trade
deficit. Inheritance and luxury taxes, except on autos and to-
bacco, will rise 10 percent. Gasoline prices will increase 7
percent to $1.65 per gallon.
I IMadrid considers these measures deflationary. We feel,
nowever, that they will not cut consumer spending enough to make
much of a dent in Spain's 22-percent inflation rate. In fact the
tax hike will not even fully offset spending increases announced
in the last two months.
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Prime Minister Suarez has avoided stronger measures
because he heads a transition government. He has said that broad
tax reform and firm wage guidelines will be imposed only after
next summer when a government with a popular mandate will be in
power. Instead, Suarez is seeking political peace and is trying
to appease labor with expansionary policies and sizable wage in-
creases.
The new measures will also have little impact on the
balance of payments. Demand for gasoline is relatively immune
to price changes while luxury goods account for only a small
share of total imports.
I IThe payments situation so far in 1976 is slightly im-
prove compared with last year. However, the picture is likely
to worsen in the second half, as drought hurts trade in agricul-
tural products. For the year as a whole, we expect a current-ac-
count deficit of about $3.5 billion, up from $3.2 billion in
1975.
$180-million fund to supply credits to developing countries for
the purchase of Spanish goods in 1977. Madrid hopes that these
credits will develop new markets.
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