NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029200010046-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2005
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: August 27, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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TO: NA{NE AND ADDRESS DATE INITIALS u
(Security Classification)
Access to this docurr>lent will be restricted to
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NATIOAIAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Friday August 27, 1976 CI NIDC: 76-202C
State Department review completed
w
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
Top Secret
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National Intelli ence Dail Cable for Frida Au ust 27 1976.
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25X1 The NID Cable i_s for the purpose of informing
senior o_~icials.
EGYPT-LIBYA: Situation Report
SOUTH AFRICA: Work Boycott
CHINA: Harvest Prospects
USSR-KOREA: Reactions to Incident
IAEA - SOUTH AFRICA: Expulsion of Pretoria
WESTERN EUROPE: Drought
PHILIPPINES: Communist Lewder Captured
USSR: Nonaligned Summit
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EGYPT-LIBYA: Situation Report
E tiaras may now be in the process of moving
o the Libyan border the major ground force
uni s a wou complete the kind of buildup needed for a
showdown with Libya.
Over the past few months, the Egyptians have proceeded
at a~cCe~erate pace to bolster their forces nE~ar the border.
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25X1 The political preparation for a possible move against
Libya a so appears to be continuing. The Cairo press yesterday
harped on the hijacking last Monday of an Egyptian airliner,
allegedly by Libyans, as well as the inequities of the Qadhafi
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While the US embassy in Cairo detects some tendency
in press reatment to draw back from the idea of a firm commit-
ment to take action against Qadhafi, the basic theme that ret-
ribution against him is coming is being sustained in the Egyp-
tian media.
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SOUTH AFRICA: Work Boycott
The work stoppage among Soweto reside~~ts appears to
ave en ed, but it showed that student militants have made im-
portant headway in their effort to involve South Africa's urban
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blacks in a disruptive protest movement against: the apartheid
system. Some blacks in Soweto, including Zulu tribesmen, reacted
violently against the militants' tactics, but the boycott was
clearly more successful -than the first Soweto work stoppage
three weeks ago, which frizzled out after the fi-rst day.
On Monday roughly 80 percent of the 200,000 industrial
workers who usually commute from the black township to Johannes-
burg were absent from their jobs. Absenteeism declined only
slightly during the subsequent two days of the boycott.
The boycott was clearly more thoroughly organized
an e one three weeks ago. Student leaders called meetings
in Yiigh schools late last week to recruit other students, who
distributed leaflets over the weekend calling f_or the work
stoppage,
Police authorities encouraged Soweto residents who
wante o continue working to arm themselves wit:h clubs to fend
off harassment by the militants. Bloody attacks on the militants
by hundreds of Zulu tribesmen living in Soweto"~> bachelor bar-
racks and not participating in the boycott broke out on Tuesday.
According to some reports, the Zulus were encouraged by the po-
lice. The ensuing violence produced more casualties and required
greater police intervention than was the case during the boy-
cott.
Many Soweto residents apparently were deterred from
going to work by threats that their homes would be burned while
they were away and by transportation bottleneck:~ that prevented
them from getting to Johannesburg. The spread of= random fight-
ing between Zulus and other Soweto residents also contributed
to the absenteeism.
P!lany of the pamphlets distributed in Soweto last week-
end reportedly carried t:he name of the African National Con-
gress, the outlawed black organization that has been subnressed ,
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The congress' exiled leaders, who have maintained a
prolific propaganda apparatus abroad, have wasted no time in
playing up the violence. Acting congress president Oliver Tambo
yesterday issued a statement calling on all black Africans to
intensify the struggle against apartheid.
Although the boycott caused local disruptions in fac-
tories and businesses in the Johannesburg area, economic pres- 25X1
sures on black workers could militate against further work stop-
pages. South Africa's economy currently suffers from falling
gold prices and a recession. This has affected blacks more than
whites, and black unem to ment has risen ra idl
CHINA: Harvest Prospects
China still has little chance of matching last year's
me iocre grain output of about 260 million tons, excluding
soybeans, unless the weather improves markedly.
e all-
arvested grains, especially in
termediate
an ate rice, were
sown late. If fall weathe
r com
es early this
year the 1976 grain
output will be far below t
hat
of last year.//
The Chinese needed a better than normal early grain
arves is year, especially in southern China, because the
1975 late rice crop was poor in some areas, and unusually low
temperatures throughout the winter and spring of 1975-1976 re-
duced the output of winter vegetables and other important supple-
mental foods. Normally, grain supplies in China are tightest in
the spring and summer prior to the beginning of the early harvest.
The spring-summer harvest got off to a poor start
ecause of drought in northern China and prolonged rainfall in
central, southern, and northwestern China at the time of seed-
ing. Growth was retarded by a continuation of dry weather in
the extreme north; most other areas received timely rain, but
temperatures were the lowest in years. Rains delayed harvesting
in most of northern China.
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Early rice has been set back by unusually late spring
frost and unseasonably low temperatures throughout the summer.
On balance, bad weather probably affected the early rice crop
more than the spring-summer harvest.
//Accordi.ng to Premier Hua Kuo-feng, China is
rawing n s grain st-ocks to avoid new purchases at this
time. Roughly 2 million tons of wheat are scheduled for delivery
from Canada and Australia between April 1976 and. March 1977.
The Chinese have .the option of purchasing another 2 million.
tons under long-term agrE:ements with these suppliers.//
//Whether Peking will be forced to re-enter
the grain market will depend on how far it is willing to draw
down stocks and on the outcome of the fall harvest. China re-
cently purchased at leasi~ 100,000 tons of Brazi.l.ian soybeans,
a arentl as a buffer against a short harvest of rapeseed.//
US5R-KOREA: Reactions to Incident
The Soviets' limited reaction to tensions in the Ko-
rean emilitarized Zone :suggests that Moscow's primary concern
is avoiding a detrimental impact on relations with the US. Mos-
cow is also anxious to discourage any additiona]_ show of what
the Soviets see as North Korean adventurism.
The Soviets' propaganda support far North Korea has
been even more half-hearted than their support in 1969, when a
US EC-121 reconnaissance aircraft was shot down by North Korea.
Moscow's only gesture thus far has been a statement issued by
the Soviet-backed ti4orld Federation of Trade Unions protesting
the US military build-up in Korea and calling on the US to com-
ply with the UN resolution on the withdrawal of US forces from
Korea.
Pravda has said nothing since last weE~kend, when it
Carrie wo brief articles on the US build-up. Other Soviet me-
dia have been similarly restrained; none has yet carried any of
the North Korean accounts of the incident.
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Private Soviet comment seems to be aimed at dissoci-
ating the USSR from North Korea's actions. One Soviet official
in Eastern Europe has said flatly that the incident was a North
Korean "provocation," and attributed it to North Korea's desire
to draw the attention of the nonaligned to the US military pres-
ence in South Korea.
The most extensive Soviet comment has come from a So-
viet aca emic specialist on the Orient, who expressed regret
and outrage over the incident and launched into a tirade against
"irresponsible and hot-headed leaders of non-countries" like
North Korea who seek to embroil the great powers in a war. He
compared North Korean President Kim Il-song to the Balkan
princes who sparked World War I, and compared Kim's behavior
unfavorably with that of Vietnamese leaders.
The Soviet scholar said that, as far as he knew, Kim's
prospective trip to the USSR this year would still come off,
but not until the current furor dies down. Last year, the So-
viets turned aside Kim's request to go to the USSR, in part be-
cause they did not want to identify themselves with his policies
in the post-Vietnam environment.
These statements about Kim doubtless have been em-
roi ere somewhat for the benefit of the US, but they are in
line with Moscow's long-standing opposition to adventurism by
Kim. While the Soviets pay lip service to North Korea's posi-
tion on US troop withdrawals, they still see their interests
best served by a continuation of the status quo on the Korean
peninsula.
The Chinese, meanwhile, while registering cautious
support or Pyongyang, continue to minimize the significance of
the events at Panmunjom. Chinese media have not directly com-
mented on the slayings; Peking-owned newspapers in Hong Kong
have taken the line that tensions are already abating in Korea.
Several of these commentaries have also asserted that the US
will not fight another war in Asia, implying Chinese confidence
that the US remains opposed to attempts to heighten tensions in
the region.
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IAEA - SOUTH AFRICA: Expulsion of Pretoria
//A call for South Africa's expulsion from the In-
erna Iona Atomic Energy Agency is expected to be made at the
Agency's conference in Rio de Janeiro in September and at two
meetings of the Board of Governors.//
//At the Board of Governors meeting in mid-June,
11 of the 34 members expressed reservations about seating South
Africa on the Board for 1976-1977. The Nigerians said last month
that they will propose expelling South Africa at the general
conference.//
//Expulsion may be difficult because under IAEA
statutes a member can only be suspended, and even this would
require two thirds of the members to agree that South Africa
has persistently violated. the statutes. Moreover, the statutes
are almost exclusively limited to the Agency's substantive re-
sponsibilities in the safeguards and atomic applications areas.//
//Paris and Pretoria will ask the Board at its pre-
conference meeting to approve an agreement providing for safe-
guards on two nuclear power reactors South Africa has ordered
from France. This tactic may be intended to play on the fears
of some members who believe that South Africa might not imple-
ment this proposed agreement if expelled from the IAEA. In a
related move South Africa. on August 20 initiated discussion
with the Agency on the application of safeguards to a commercial
uranium enrichment plant in South Africa. This is in sharp con-
trast to Pretoria's previous vacillation on such an agreement.//
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//Although suspension or expulsion cannot be ruled
out, it is more likely that a move will be made to challenge
the credentials of South Africa's delegation. Should this occur,
it is expected that a sufficient majority would vote against
seating the delegation.//
ence. The Africans, Arabs, and East Europeans have consistently
voted against Pretoria in other UN agencies, making it extremely
unlikely that the South African representative would be permitted
to take his seat.//
//The question of credentials is bound to come up
at the Board of Governors' meeting immediately after the confer-
//Pretoria maintains that expulsion would be ille-
ga , ut appears resigned to the likelihood of some punitive
move. One French Foreign Ministry official is less pessimistic
and thinks the South Africans could head off expulsion by in-
tensively lobbying amon moderate members, such as the Ivory
Coast and Seneqal.
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WESTERN EUROPE: Drought
Continuing dry weather in Western Europe has led to
a flurry of economic measures to deal with falling farm incomes
and rising food prices.
France so far has initiated the most ambitious aid
program. The cabinet, before its dissolution this week, decided
to provide "immediately" about $450 million to the most seri-
ously affected farmers. Due to administrative delays, however,
farmers will probably have to wait 30 to 45 days before re-
ceiving the allotted aid.
Direct payments will go to livestock producers based
on e size of their herds and the intensity of the drought's
impact on their operations.
Payments will be limited to a maximum of about $1,200
per farmer. The repayment period for drought-related loans
granted this year from the state-owned farmers' bank has been
extended to seven years from the usual four. In addition, Paris
will pay the interest charged this year on loans to young
farmers in the most seriously affected areas.
The aid package is the first installment of an overall
1.5-billion program to be announced on September 29. To pay
for it, the government proposed that parliament increase direct
taxes; only those on middle and upper incomes are likely to be
affected.
Last Wednesday, West Germany allotted $24 million to
roug -s ricken farmers; comparable aid contributions from
state governments are expected. About $17 million of the fed-
eral funds will subsidize interest rates for farmer credits.
The remainder will be dispensed as direct aid to the most needy
farmers .
With the economic loss to the farm sector estimated
at $1 billion to $2 billion, and approximately 55,000 farmers
in financial trouble, the aid program will be only marginally
effective.
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The European Community is continuing to lower import
res ric ions on agricultural products in an attempt to offset
reduced domestic production and contain food price increases.
Because vegetable prices are expected to be the most volatile,
the EC Council has recently agreed to suspend import duties
through the end of September on a variety of fresh vegetables.
While duties on frozen and processed vegetables will
con ~.nue, persistent dry conditions may move the EC to suspend
these levies as well. A meeting of the special agricultural com-
mittee has been called f:or September 7 to discuss possible sus-
pension of duties on otYier products. Those on potatoes had ear-
lier been discontinued and some grain impart restrictions eased.
So far, the UK's major concern has been maintaining
emp oymen in industries facing water shortages. Drought condi-
tions are so severe in :youth Wales that water supplies to indus-
try will be cut 50 percent starting September 1.5. Households in
the area already have their water supplies shut: off for 17 hours
a day.
Some local industry leaders are warning of a return
o a - ay work week. Tl1e seriousness of the situation has
prompted the government to appoint a water czar- to coordinate
conservation and supply efforts.
Some form of aid to British farmers appears imminent.
Lon on is most likely to accept a 10-percznt devaluation of the
"green pound"--the special exchange rate used in agricultural
trade with the EC. This move would meet farmers' demands for
higher support prices, as well as please other EC members who
dislike subsidizing UK food imports.
The inevitable rise in food prices :following such a
move wi create additional strains on the government's all-
important relationship with its trade union allies.
Because the drought's impact has been less severe in
Ito y, e adoption of significant agricultural aid programs
there appears unlikely.
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PHILIPPINES: Communist Leader Captured
arm of the pro-Chinese Philippine Communist Party, provides a
major psychological boost for the Marcos administration.//
//The Philippine government's announcement of the
capture of the commander of the New People's Army, the military
//The actual guiding hand of the Communist Party
is c airman ose Maria Sison, a bright young university instruc-
tor who went underground after breaking from the moribund pro-
Soviet party in 1968. The estimated 1,600 regulars of the New
People's Army are centered in northeastern Luzon. Although the
government is worried about the communist insurgency's spread
to other islands, it has been generally well contained by the
Philippine armed forces.//
//The Communist guerrillas have been overshadowed
as a rea o the government in recent years by the much larger
Muslim insurgency in the southern Philippines.//
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USSR: Nonaligned Summit
An editorial on Monday in the PeopZe's DaiZ~ announced
that China was satisfied with the results of the nonaligned sum-
mit conference in Colombo last week, ignoring those decisions
which did not accord with the Chinese line. The USSR, on the
other hand, has indicated through its tepid reporting of the
event that it is disappo_i.nted.
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China has taken special delight in conference resolu-
tions that indirectly condemned the USSR along with the US for
increased military tension in the Indian Ocean and the Mediter-
ranean and for economic exploitation of the third world. It also
welcomed the nonaligned's use of the Chinese formulation "he-
gemonic relations" in warning of the dangers of all forms of
imperialism. Less pleasing to the Chinese but unmentioned in
the editorial were such nonaligned actions as commending Cuba
for its role in Angola and rejecting the Malaysian resolution
for a zone of peace and neutrality in Southeast Asia.
Although the Soviet press build-up prior to the sum-
mit was extensive, once the conference convened the Soviets
did little more than replay statements by friends of the USSR
and the allegedly warm response to General Secretary Brezhnev's
message of greetings. The only signed Pravda piece on the sub-
ject that appeared during the summit took the nonaligned to
task for failing to absolve the US5R of responsibility for eco-
nomic problems in the third world, for subscribing to the the-
sis of the "hegemony of the super powers," and for equating So-
viet and US behavior in the Indian Ocean.
Soviet officials profess privately that they are un-
concerne about the results of the summit. One official said
that the conference had no significance and would not affect
Soviet policy. The Soviets have worked hard over the years to
ingratiate themselves with the nonaligned, however, and they
are likely to increase their efforts now that they see in-
creasing competition from their chief rivals, China and the
US.
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Top Secret
(Security Classification)
Top Secret
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r