NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029200010038-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2005
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: August 23, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Monday August 23, 1976 CI NIDC 76-198C
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Monday. Auaust 23. 1976
IThe NIL) Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
NORTH KOREA: Situation Report
LEBANON: Situation Report
EGYPT-LIBYA: Tensions Continue
NONALIGNED STATES: Conclude Conference
GREECE-TURKEY:' Sismik Sails On
PORTUGAL: Tensions in Military
DENMARK: Economic Problems
USSR-POLAND: Notification of Shield-76
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JAPAN: Political
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NORTH KOREA: Situation Report
North Korea's public reaction to Friday's tree-
c.earing operation at Panmunjom, while worded in characteristi-
cally strong terms--including personal attacks on President
Ford--continues to be enerall restrained.
The North Korean media have attempted to portray the
opera ion as proof that it was the US that instigated last
Wednesday's violent incident. A "commentator" article in yes-
terday's party daily charged that the two incidents were di-
rectly linked with each other and aimed at provoking the North
into another war.
Although North Korea continues to call attention to
heightened tensions, Pyongyang has not issued an official gov-
ernment statement. By listing explicitly those few things de-
stroyed in Friday's action--a tree, a guard post, and a traffic
barrier--Pyongyang seems to be willing to minimize the signifi-
cance of the US operation.
The North Koreans have not publicly acknowledged a
messaage from President Kim Il-song, in his capacity as supreme
commander of the North :Korean armed forces, that termed the
Wednesday incident "regretful." The message was read on Fri-
day at a meeting of the Military Armistice Commission requested
by the North shortly after the tree-felling operation, and was
attended only by the senior representatives of the US and North
Korean delegations.
I That meeting of senior Commission members has prompted
fresh concern in Seoul about the possibility of US involvement
in bilateral negotiations with North Korea on political matters.
Moscow. and Peking continue to hold the Korean situa-
tion at arm's length.
I I Following the lines of their treatment of Wednesday's
incident, Soviet and Chinese radio broadcasts have selectively
replayed Pyongyang's account of the tree-cutting operation.
Both have avoided making any comment on their own.
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LEBANON: Situation Report
Efforts to arrange for the peaceful withdrawal of the
Palestinians from their positions in the mountains east of Bei-
rut have stalled, but the Christians are still delaying their
offensive.
I I The commander of the Arab League peacekeeping forces
in e anon has transmitted to leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt the
latest demands of the Phalanges Party. The Christians insist
that the Palestinians turn over their positions in Mount Lebanon
to Arab League troops, agree to a timetable for the cessation
of hostilities on all fronts, and accept Syria's conditions re-
garding the make-up of the leftist representation on any truce
committee supervising a settlement.
I The commander reportedly also told Jumblatt that the
Syrians, in turn, would withdraw from Jazzin, their position
closest to the key leftist port of Sidon in the south.
I Jumblatt has categorically rejected the Christian pro-
posals. Fle said that the Arab League forces are too weak to take
over positions in the mountains, and he called for an expanded
League force of 15,000 troops with its own artillery and armor.
On Sunday, Jumblatt demanded that the Arab League face
up to the problem in Lebanon and compel Syria to withdraw its
forces from the country.
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I I The Egyptians and Saudis are trying to marshall sup-
port or holding an Arab League summit meeting, according to an
Egyptian newspaper. Ten League members have approved a meeting,
according to a press report from Cairo. Eleven members must agree
to attend a summit conference.
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sad will be hard put to hold out against a summit
with the Saudis pushing the idea, but he can probably count on
Saudi cooperation in trying to water down any resolution that
would endanger his policy toward Lebanon.
There are signs that the Palestinians are beginning
to suffer from a shortage of manpower. Palestinian officials
have confirmed that Palestine Liberation Organization leader
Yasir Arafat issued a conscription decree after the fall of the
Tall Zatar refugee camp on August 12. Fedayeen organizations
have begun rounding up Palestinian men for compulsory military
service.
The forces in Beirut are continuing to trade heavy
artillery barrages, despite several attempts to work out an
agreement to end the shelling. The major commercial center of
west Beirut was shelled on Saturday while the streets were
filled with shoppers. Previously, the two sides confined their
shelling to the night hours. The Beirut press yesterday quoted
the son of Phalanges Party leader Jumayyil as saying that shell-
ing of the leftist-controlled section of Beirut would continue
until the end of the war.
I I There was also heavy artillery fire over the weekend
in a number of Beirut's southern suburbs, particularly Shiyah
and Ayn Rummanah, where the fighting apparently also included
ground activity. Fighting in the Mount Lebanon area seems to
have been limited rimai:il to exchanges of artillery and
machine gun fire;
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Fighting intensified in the north over the weekend.
A C ristian militia attack on the village of Alma reportedly
was led by President Franjiyah's son, who had been reported
dead. The pro-Christian radio announced yesterday that Chris-
tian artillery sank a ship of unidentified nationality anchored
in Tripoli harbor. The ship supposedly carried arms for the
Muslims and Palestinians.
Egyptian media are continuing to hammer away at Lib-
yan president Qadhafi in terms that may make it difficult for
President Sadat to delay some kind of move against Qadhafi with-
out damaging his credibility.
One Cairo newspaper, playing up Sadat's refusal of
numerous offers of mediation by Arab leaders at the Nonaligned
Conference in Colombo, quoted Sadat as saying that "we cannot
stand idle when it comes to killing the people of Egypt"--a
reference to recent terrorist incidents that Egypt has blamed
on Libya. The paper reported that Sadat had assured the families
of those injured in the bombings that "Qadhafi will not get
away with it."
The recent bombings in Cairo, Alexandria and else-
where--all of them ascribed to Libya by the Egyptians--have
nourished a sense of apprehension and fear among the Egyptian
public. Government accounts of the bombings and warnings about
suspicious packages and unusual movements by strangers have
fed the public unease.
I lEgyptian security officials are coming under fire for
their failure to stop the bombings. The popular anger against
the security services and the public's insistence that terror-
ist acts be stopped will make it increasingly difficult for
the government to avoid an overt move against Libya.
By repeatedly promising that Egypt will punish Qad-
a?i., Sa at is painting himself into a corner. Even if he were
so inclined, Sadat will not be able to continue talking harshly
and doing little without damaging his popular standing--already
undercut by severe domestic economic problems.
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I ILibya's news agency, for its part, has called Sadat
a as is addict" with a "sick mind" who is following the
dictates of his imperialist masters. The Libyans, noting that
Cairo has imposed a curfew in some of Egypt's western areas,
have described Egypt as a "large prison." The Libyans allege
that a thousand Egyptian soldiers stationed on Libya's border
have already deserted to protest the misuse of the army.
I I A meeting over the weekend between Qadhafi and Al-
gerian president Boumediene may indicate in part. that Qadhafi
is actively seeking out allies against a possible Egyptian
move.
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I I The nonaligned summit, which ended in Sri Lanka on
ri ay, approved political and economic declarations critical
of US policies, but no more so than previous nonaligned state-
ments.
he political dec-
ara ion was hammered out a er intense an stormy debate in
the drafting committee. There were apparently over a hundred
suggested amendments to the moderate draft declaration, which
Sri Lanka, as host of the summit, had prepared. Most amendments
came from radical states--Cuba, Vietnam, and Syria, for example--
and these states tried to toughen the final declaration even
more. The final resolutions--when they become available--are
likely to reflect a more radical orientation than the political
and economic declarations.
The nonaligned "moderates," particularly India, Yugo-
slavia, and Sri Lanka, played an active role in opposing radical
initiatives. In addition, Algeria's preoccupation with its bi-
lateral dispute with Morocco over Western Sahara reportedly
prevented the Algerians--the traditional leaders of the radical
wing--from focusing on many nonaligned issues, and in turn de-
prived the radical wing of an influential voice.
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The political declaration:
--Called for withdrawal of all foreign troops from South
Korea, the closure of all foreign military bases there,
the termination of the UN Command, and the replacement
of the armistice agreement with a peace settlement. No
mention was made of tensions in the demilitarized zone.
--Demanded that the US halt all political or "repressive"
maneuvers that perpetuate Puerto Rico's "colonial status."
--Reaffirmed support for Panamanian control of the canal
and stated that the presence of US bases in Latin America
"represents a threat to the peace and security of the
region.
--Criticized the US for its "political, economic, and
military" support of Israel.
--Referred to "aggressive US imperialism" in Indochina,
and called on the US to help "heal the war wounds" of the area.
The conference also called for an oil embargo against
rance and Israel, reportedly because of their violations of UN
resolutions against arms supply to South Africa.
The conference's economic declaration placed emphasis
on measures that the nonaligned and developing states could
take to enhance their development.
I I That declaration included criticism of the developed
states tor their lack of concern for the economic problems of
the third world, but the criticism was more moderate than other
similar nonaligned and developing country statements. The ac-
companying action program placed strong emphasis on promoting
intra-nonaligned commercial, trading, and banking relations.
The nonaligned also called for feasibility studies
on the establishment of a common third world currency and com-
mercial banking system.
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GREECE-TURKEY: Sismik Sails On
25X1 I I The Turkish research ship Sismik I apparently con-
tinued i s seismic explorations south of Chios Island over the
weekend. Efforts in the UN Security Council to draft a compro-
mise resolution on the Aegean situation have bogged down, and
Greece and Turkey have traded charges on various related topics.
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The Sismik I began its current phase of operations
last Thursday in an area less sensitive than the previous phase
but still including waters above disputed portions of the con-
tinental shelf. The ship is expected to return to port early
this week to prepare for three further missions.
I If the Sismik I has entered contested waters in re-
cent days, the Greeks have not protested. Unlike the second
area of operation, this one does not impinge on areas where
the Greeks have granted oil concessions.
negotiations. Each side apparently asked for changes.
According to the press, the Security Council failed
on Saturday to obtain Greek and Turkish approval of a draft
resolution calling for restraint and the resumption of bilateral
I j In The Hague yesterday, the International Court of
Justice invited Turkey to send representatives to the hearing
scheduled for Wednesday. The Court will consider Greece's ap-
plication for an interim injunction calling on Ankara to halt
its exploration in disputed waters. The Turks have previously
been reluctant to submit their differences with Greece to such
an international forum.
I On Saturday Turkish officials said that Greek radio
opera ors had attempted to jam Turkish communications with the
Sismik I. Athens denied the claim yesterdday.
An official of the Turkish Mining Research Institute
said Friday that Turkey could start test drilling for oil in
the Aegean in little more than a month. Drilling would be based
on information provided by the Sismik I. The official added
that a ship now drilling in the Black Sea would be directed to
the Aegean.
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No doubt sensitive to the potential impact of this
announcement on Greek-Turkish tensions, Turkish Prime Minister
Demirel noted the same day, according to the press, that the
government had not yet decided whether to go ahead with such
drilling. Demirel did not, however, indicate whether the govern-
ment intended to confine any such drilling to Turkish terri-
torial waters.
The Turks are not known to have their own marine
rA ing equipment. The ship currently operating in the Black
Sea is believed to be a foreign vessel under contract to a
Turkish oil company.
I I Demirel's mid--week statement that the Greek Aegean
islands cannot remain armed continued to stir controversy over
the weekend. Greek Prime Minister Caramanlis, who had already
taken exception to the statement, reportedly asked for an ex-
planation from Ankara.
In reply, according to the Greek press, the Turkish
Foreign Ministry attempted to play down this aspect of the dis-
pute by stating that Demirel had not meant to challenge Greek
sovereignty over the islands in question.
PORTUGAL: Tensions in Military
I IPortuguese President Eanes' efforts to mold a profes-
siona , unified military capable of protecting the new demo-
cratic government from either the left or the right are contin-
uing to cause tension within the armed forces.
I I Most of the dissension is coming from the conservative
"operationals," who thought Eanes shared their support for a
quick restoration of the military hierarchy. They are surprised
that he does not openly favor them over the more liberal "polit-
icals," who are reluctant to give up the influence they enjoyed
during two years of military rule.
I I Eanes appears to have decided, however, that the best
way ?o control military infighting is to strengthen his hold on
the armed forces and to steer an independent course between the
two factions. He maintains contact with both sides but has re-
cently selected center-leftist advisers loyal to him.
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//Eanes has tried to strike a balance in making
appointments. He has chosen leftists and conservatives to serve
as Lisbon's representatives and military commanders in both the
Azores and Madeira. Some officers believe he is trying to send
potential troublemakers from both factions out of the Lisbon
area.//
Eanes has avoided decisions that favor one side over
the other. Last week the President ruled that members of the
all-military Revolutionary Council--which now acts as an advi-
sory body to the president--must decide whether they wish to
remain on the council or assume line command positions. As a
result, two leftists were removed from regional commands, and a
conservative left the council.
Eanes has been criticized because he has made an ex-
ception-in the case of General Lourenco, who was named military
governor of Lisbon so he could stay on the council.
Leading conservatives, including air force chief Da
Silva and commando leader Neves, were conspicuously absent from
Lourenco's swearing-in ceremony last week after it was decided
he would keep the regional command position for an unspecified
period.
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//The Danish Parliament's approval last week
of an economic package sponsored by the Social Democratic
government of Prime Minister Jorgensen triggered widespread
labor protests that could threaten the minority government.//
//Jorgensen convened an emergency session of Par-
liament on August 17 and threatened to resign and call a new
election if his proposals to correct the ailing economy were
defeated. The Social Democrats and their allies--the Center
Democrats, the Radicals, and the Christians--were joined by the
Conservatives to win a slim majority in Parliament on Thursday.//
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trade may yet be thwarted.
staged numerous wildcat strikes last week. More unions went
out on August 19, and if the strikes continue to spread, the
government's new measures to curb inflation and balance foreign
6-percent ceiling on wage increases over the next two years,
USSR-POLAND: Notification of Shield-76
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//Danish workers, protesting the economic program's
I I In compliance with the Helsinki Accord, Poland has
given H-65i ification of the major military exercise Shield-76, a
multinational Warsaw Pact exercise that will involve as many as
35,000 ground and air force troops. It is scheduled to be held
from September 9 to 16 in Poland.
Polish officials said that troops from Poland, East
ers from at least four countries outside the Pact--Austria, Den-
mark, Finland, and Sweden--have been invited.
Germany, Czechoslovakia, and the USSR will participate. Observ-
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Poland is the first East European country to announce
a major military exercise--one involving over 25,000 ground
troops--in compliance with the confidence-building measure pro-
visions of the Final Act of the European Security conference.
Hungary announced a smaller exercise in April, and the Soviet
Union announced two exercises earlier this year involving only
Soviet troops. Yugoslavia has also announced two exercises.
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Shield-76 is the first multinational Warsaw Pact exer-
cise a since the Helsinki summit meeting.
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25X1 I I Deputy Prime Minister Fukuda and other leaders of
Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party may move to force Prime
Minister Miki's resignation at a special party caucus early
next week. Fourteen of Miki's nineteen cabinet ministers and
two-thirds of the party's Diet members have endorsed a peti-
tion calling for the meeting. Barring a decision by Miki to
step down beforehand, the gathering will doubtless endorse a
motion demanding his resignation.
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Fukuda would clearly prefer Miki to step down vol-
untarily. Along with Finance Minister Ohira, Fukuda will hold
a round of private meetings with Miki in the next few days. An
effort to persuade Miki to resign failed last week, but Fukuda
and Ohira hope the petition for a special caucus will force
Miki to acquiesce.
Miki continues to insist upon convening a Diet ses-
election this fall. Miki has indicated all along that he will
remain in office until the Lockheed investigation is finally
resolved and now is attempting to link his tenure to the ap-
proaching elections--an event he has described as "Lockheed's
political conclusion." The Prime Minister still enjoys popu-
lar support, but the arrest of former prime minister Tanaka
and the pressure on the prosecutors to conclude the investi-
gation by the end of this month has considerably weakened
Miki's case for staying on.
Sion, passing pending fiscal bills and then calling a general
Diet later this month.
would face a cabinet revolt if he attempted to convene the
Miki could flatly refuse to resign as prime minis-
ter even if the-party caucus adopts a non-confidence motion.
The caucus can only change the party leadership; a new prime
minister must be selected by the Diet. With all but five of
his cabinet ministers now aligned against him, however, Miki
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