NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029200010036-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: August 21, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Saturday August 21, 1976 CI NIDC 76-197C 0
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Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Saturday August 21, 1976.
I I The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
KOREA: Interagency Situation Report
LEBANON: Situation Report
CUBA: Courts US Companies
GREECE-TURKEY: Situation Report
NAMIBIA: Independence Date
SOUTH AFRICA: Riot Situation
CUBA-JAMAICA: Solidifying Ties
ROMANIA: Playing Down Ceausescu Visit
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KOREA: Interagency Situation Report
he Daily prints the text of the National Intelligence
Situation Report on Korea as of 2:00 am produced by an inter-
agency group.
I At 6:00 pm EDT August 20, a UN Command work party of
38 US an 60 South Korean personnel entered the Joint Security
Area at Panmunjom to cut down the tree at the site where North
Korean personnel had two days earlier killed two US officers.
Some 20 North Korean soldiers were in the immediate
area but did not interfere. Another 50 or so watched from across
a nearby bridge. The work party cut down the tree and removed
two illegal North Korean barriers.
I I The operation was completed, and the work party cleared
the Joint Security Area in about one and one half hours. No US
backup forces had to be committed.
As the operation concluded, the North Koreans passed
a message through Military Armistice Commission channels demand-
ing that the "reckless provocation" cease and that all troops
be removed from the area. The UN Command responded that the tree
had been cut down and the work party had left the scene.
Subsequently, the North Koreans requested a meeting
of the two principal Military Armistice Commission members. This
meeting, which convened at 10:45 pm EDT, was the scene of a con-
ciliatory North Korean statement to the effect that the August
18 incident was "regrettable." The North Korean spokesman prom-
ised that his side "will never provoke first."
I A North
Korean press article commenting on Air Force Day, August 20,
stated that the air force was in "full combat posture."
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About two hours after the removal of the tree, a hel-
icopter carrying the Task Force Commander was hit by small arms
fire while airborne about 1,000 meters (1,100 yards) east of
Panmunjom. one round struck the tail rotor pylon; there were no
casualties, and no fire was exchanged.
We do not consider this significant or even necessar-
ily related to the task force operation. Such incidents happen
routinely when the North Koreans believe our aircraft approach
too close to their positions.
The UN Command actions in the wake of the August 18
North Korean attack on US and Republic of Korea personnel in
the Joint Security Area, as well as the rapidity of the various
US military deployments to the Korean area, should give Pyong-
yang pause. Our response, for example, must have convinced
North Korea that it risked an unwarranted military escalation.
It would thus be reasonable for the North Koreans to reassess
briefly both their position and that of their adversaries.
I Pyongyang's basic policy stance will, however, proba-
y remain unchanged. It is committed to finding a way to rup-
ture US - Republic of Korea security ties and will put much ef-
fort into portraying the US as the prime instigator of insta-
bility on the Korean Peninsula.
Pyongyang doubtless perceives that it will have a
number of good opportunities toward this end in coming months,
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on Korea this fall. We would expect, therefore, that North Ko-
rea will continue to stage provocations from which it expects
to extract political and diplomatic mileage.
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LEBANON: Situation Report
Heavy shelling between forces in east and west Bei-
rut continued yesterday, despite efforts by Christian Phalan-
gist leader Jumayyil and former prime minister Saib Salam to
halt the bombardment. The heaviest exchanges occurred in the
southern suburbs between forces in the Christian district of
Ayn Rummanah and the Muslim stronghold of Chiyah; central Bei-
rut where many foreign embassies are located is also coming
under increasingly heavy fire.
The Christians--presumably excluding the Phalangists--
apparently are trying to keep leftist and Palestinian forces
tied down in Beirut so that they cannot reinforce their posi-
tions in the mountains east of the capital. The leftists an-
nounced yesterday that they have strengthened their forces in
the mountains, claiming that this has caused the delay in the
long-awaited Christian campaign in that area.
Christian temporizing is more likely the result of
some hitch in their coordination with the Syrians, who are sup-
posed to provide artillery support for the offensive. President
Asad has been reluctant to undertake any fresh military moves
against the Palestinians, presumably because of increasing do-
mestic unhappiness over his Lebanese policy and the interna-
tional attention recently focused on the plight of Palestinians
at Tall Zatar.
Asad may now calculate that his next move must help
Syria achieve its goal of transferring power from President
Franjiyah to Ilyas Sarkis. The Syrians may therefore be stalling
the Christians in order to extract a firm guarantee that Fran-
jiyah will step down when his term officially expires on Sep-
tember 23.
The Syrians may also want to avoid altogether any
move that would upstage Franjiyah's departure and the momentum
it could give to serious negotiations. Asad recently obtained
approval from his senior military advisers, however, for a
renewed military offensive in Lebanon should it be necessary
to force a settlement.
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Sarkis met with Franjiyah on Thursday to discuss
arrangments for the transfer of power. Sarkis apparently in-
tends to travel to Damascus with other Christian leaders and
the speaker of parliament, presumably to discuss Syria's role
in the inauguration. Sarkis' travel plans apparently prompted
leftist charges yesterday that the president-elect has already
promised Damascus that he will continue to allow the presence
of Syrian troops in Lebanon.
Preparations for an Arab League summit conference
are continuing despite the fact that only eight members have
approved the request for the meeting; eleven members must agree
to attend before the conference can be held. Syria has not
given its reply. Camille Shamun, speaking in his new capacity
as Lebanese Foreign Minister, announced yesterday that Leb-
anon would participate if the conference were held in an Arab
capital that has remained neutral in the Lebanese war; he spe-
cifically ruled out Cairo as a site for the meeting.
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CUBA: Courts US Companies
//Cuba has stepped up direct contacts with US com-
panies, despite its public statements playing down the impor-
tance of the US market.//
//Since last October, the Cuban government has
financed visits by representatives of at least eight US com-
panies to explore bilateral trade possibilities once commer-
cial relations between the two countries are re-established.
It has tentatively scheduled visits by five additional com-
panies within the next couple of months and has continued to
communicate with a number of other US firms.//
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//In at least one instance, Cuba has requested a
company to waive its claim for compensation for nationalized
properties in return for future access to the Cuban market.
The Cubans have also hinted at the possibility of management
contracts and joint ventures.//
//These Cuban actions appear to :be an effort to
undermine the US business community's support for the embargo.
Cuba can now obtain most of the products it desires from the
US through US-owned foreign subsidiaries, but lifting of the
embargo would give the Castro government a psychological vic-
tory.
GREECE-TURKEY: Situation Report
The UN Security Council could reconvene early next
week to consider a draft resolution on the Aegean controversy
between Greece and Turkey.
The draft, which is being formulated jointly by the
US, the UK, France, and Italy, has been the object of tough
bargaining with the Greek and Turkish foreign ministers who
are in New York. The drafters have sought to find compromise
wording that would satisfy the Greeks without unduly angering
the Turks.
The Greeks have lobbied for a strongly worded docu-
ment calling for a cessation of seismic research in disputed
areas and for equal emphasis on bilateral negotiations and
international adjudication as means of settling the dispute.
The Turks have called Greece's appeal to the Council
unwarranted. At first, they argued that the Council should
simply recapitulate the positions of the two sides without a
formal resolution. They then concentrated on changing the word-
ing of the draft, particularly its indirect reference to Turk-
ish actions in the Aegean and to the. International Court of
The compromise resolution apparently will call for
restraint and for negotiations aimed at a peaceful settlement
of the dispute. It will. also take note of The International
Court.
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In Athens and Ankara, meanwhile, the leaders of the
two countries traded charges on the potentially volatile ques-
tion of the status of the Greek islands near the Turkish coast.
The Greeks sent armed forces to the islands in violation of in-
ternational treaties following the announcement of Turkish
claims to part of the Aegean shelf. Turkish Prime Minister
Demirel declared on Wednesday that the islands "cannot remain
armed." Greek Prime Minister Caramanlis yesterday took strong
exception to Demirel's statement. 25X1
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NAMIBIA: Independence Date
The statement publicized by the South African govern-
ment this week setting December 31, 1978 as the target date for
Namibian independence and providing for a future interim gov-
ernment is an agreement only in principle and leaves crucial
issues dealing with the territory's future unresolved.
The US embassy believes South Africa put pressure on
w i e conservatives in Namibia to agree to the statement in an
effort to avert any further attempts at the UN to impose the
terms of Namibian independence. Early this year the Security
Council set August 31 as the deadline for South Africa to re-
linquish control of Namibia.
According to the statement, which was issued by a
committee of the multiracial constitutional conference that
South Africa set up last September, an interim government will
be established only after a constitutional "foundation" has
been agreed upon. Complicated negotiations on a number of mat-
ters of interest to South Africa must also be successfully con-
cluded before the interim period begins.
During the interim period, the details of the consti-
tution will be worked out and preparations made for a transfer
of power to a permanent government.
but white conservatives who at this time still control the
Namibian branch of the ruling National Party, are not recon-
ciled to losing control of the territory.
Black and mulatto representatives at the conference
reportedly hope a multiracial interim government can be estab-
lished by March 1977. They have the support of white moderates,
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A showdown among whites will come at a congress of
the party branch beginning next Tuesday. Moderates, led by Dirk
Mudge, the deputy chairman of the party branch and chairman of
the committee that issued the statement, reportedly hope to
wrest leadership of the party from the conservatives.
I Mudge believes that Prime Minister Vorster will not
intervene on behalf of the conservatives in Namibia. The con-
servatives have powerful allies in the South African govern-
ment, however, and the party congress could become acrimonious,
forcing Vorster to intervene more directly than he has to date.
The South-West Africa Peoples Organization, which is
leading the insurgency against South African control of Namibia,
immediately condemned the statement. There is some sentiment
within the constitutional conference to invite SWAPO to parti-
cipate, but thus far SWAPO has indicated it would refuse.
Sporadic violence and arson continued yesterday in
three black townships near Port Elizabeth, but no major clashes
with police were reported. Rioters Thursday spilled briefly
from the townships into a white industrial area and stoned sev-
eral factories before being driven back by police gunfire. The
death toll now stands at 33, making the Port Elizabeth riots
bloodier than those that erupted last week around Cape Town.
I IThere may be renewed violence in Cape Town's town-
Snipsuthorities refused students permission to attend
the funeral today of those killed last week. At other townships
in South Africa's Eastern Cape area, police arrested 350 stu-
dent demonstrators near Queenstown and used tear gas to break
up student marches in East London.
In the north, student activists in Johannesburg's
Soweto township--where student-led demonstrations last June
triggered South Africa's current racial unrest--reportedly are
trying to organize an adult work boycott to begin Monday. Al-
though sympathetic with the students' cause, many workers are
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reluctant to cooperate for fear of losing their jobs, and po-
lice have armed some workers with clubs to help stand off stu-
dent demonstrators in the event that they try to prevent com-
muters from getting to their jobs.
A number of industrial groups in South Africa have
begun to voice open concern over the country's continued ra-
cial violence and have forwarded a variety of proposals to the
government to ameliorate conditions for urban blacks who supply
the bulk of the labor force. Business leaders for long have
been ahead of the government in advocating some improved status
for black workers but in light of their past failures to prod
the government to take action they probably are not optimistic
that their proposals will gain wide acceptance at the cabinet
level.
The most sweeping recommendations were made public
Thursday by the Transvaal Chamber of Industries based in Jo-
hannesburg, one of the country's most influential employer
groups. A spokesman for the Chamber said the proposals had
been forwarded to Prime Minister Vorster three weeks ago, and
there has still been no response. The proposals in effect call
on the government to overturn much of the legislation governing
urban blacks. They urge, for example, limited self-government
for black townships, improved housing and education, higher
wages, and greater job mobility. Another group of Johannesburg
businessmen recently floated a plan for improving urban black 25X1
tivity to that idea. I
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CUBA-JAMAICA: Solidifying Ties
Recent exchanges of delegations between Cuba and
Jamaica demonstrate the close ties between Prime Minister
Manley's government and the Castro regime.
Contacts between Manley's People's National Party
and the Cuban Communist Party continued at a high level with
the recent visit to Jamaica of a Cuban delegation headed by
Political Bureau member Armando Hart. The delegation arrived
on August 12 for a six-day visit. Jamaica's party Secretary
General D. K. Duncan was host.
The America Department of the Cuban Communist Party
has been the principal link between the Cuban and Jamaican
parties and was represented on this trip by the head of its
Caribbean Section, who has become a regular visitor to Jamaica.
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 The two sides have also sought to strengthen the
ties between Cuban and Jamaican youth. A one-week orientation
course began recently for 100 of the 300 Jamaican youths who
are scheduled to spend a year in the Cuban provinces of Oriente
and Pinar del Rio learning construction techniques. Leading
Jamaican leftist intellectuals, media personalities, and polit-
ical activists were brought in to counsel them on the impor-
tance of discipline to national development and adaption to
revolutionary culture.
Members of the first Jamaican construction brigade
recently returned after a year in Cuba and are likely to be
integrated into the party youth organization to help in the
coming election campaign.
As part of a separate program, 60 members of various
Jamaican youth organizations left on August 4 to spend a month
in Cuba as guests of the Federation of University Students and
the Union of Communist Youth. The head of the Jamaican Guild
of Undergraduates, who has close ties with the youth arm of
Manley's party, attended the conference of the Continental Or-
ganization of Latin American Students in Havana earlier this
month.
Cuba is also providing the Manley government with
Jamaica working in technical cooperation programs in school,
housing, and dam construction, in addition to the medical proj-
ect.
assistance in the field of public health. The first part of
a Cuban medical team--likely to total some 15 members--began
arriving in early August. There are now about 280 Cubans in
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Even a church delegation representing the Cuban Coun-
cil of Churches has visited Jamaica. The leader of the group
tried to assure his Jamaican hosts that Christianity and so-
cialism as practiced in Cuba are compatible.
The Cuban media continue propaganda efforts to dis-
credit the Jamaican opposition both inside and outside the
country by linking it -to the US and to alleged US efforts to
"destabilize" the Manley government. An editorial in the Cuban
Communist Party newspaper Granma on August 6 accused the CIA
"in clear collusion with the reaction grouped around the Ja-
maica Labor Party leadership" of undertaking "a wide-ranging
plan of destabilization."
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The Cuban leadership probably hopes that repetition
of the charge that the US is trying to undermine various gov-
ernments in the Caribbean will heighten a climate of suspicion
about US activities among the more "progressive" governments
in the hemisphere. The Castro regime has been pressing hard on
this theme but Jamaican officials--reacting to a strong US
complaint--have generally been taking softer or more ambiguous
positions.
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ROMANIA: Playing Down Ceausescu Visit
The Romanian embassy in Moscow is privately playing
down the political significance of President Ceausescu's 11-day
"vacation visit" to the USSR that ended August 12. According to
one Romanian diplomat, the trip, agreed upon in principle last
April, was similar to those of other East European leaders.
The Romanians are guardedly optimistic about the re-
sults of Ceausescu's meeting with Soviet General Secretary
Brezhnev. The meeting was reported to have been friendly and
could have laid a "good basis" for a "normalization" of rela-
tions in all areas. Ceausescu, the Romanians explained, agreed
to use the phrase "proletarian internationalism" in an announce-
ment on the talks, because Bucharest gives the phrase a "slightly
different meaning" than does Moscow. The Soviets use this for-
mula to assert their leading role in the communist movement,
but the Romanians' interpret it as supporting the principle of
party independence.
According to the Romanians, Ceausescu's precedent-
shattering trip to Soviet Moldavia was made to dramatize that
Bucharest has no "revanchist claims" on Soviet territory.
The Romanians say that the USSR offered nothing con-
crete during Ceausescu's visit. They hope, however, that the
Soviets will now finally agree to sell Romania some crude oil
and to increase the "meager" amount of bilateral trade planned
for 1976-80. the USSR 25X1
is trying to be helpful because of Romania's "serious economic
problems." the Soviets had promised to sell Bu-
charest some oil, and would discuss the exact amount when the
bilateral economic commission meets in October.
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The Soviets may wish to delay committing themselves
to increased economic a:Ld until they are certain of the dur-
ability of Ceausescu's new amicability. By holding out the
promise of additional deliveries of sorely needed raw materials,
Moscow may hope to persuade Ceausescu of the rewards that could
flow from a permanent improvement in bilateral. relations.
nian party's political executive 'committee on Wednesday,
Ceausescu briefed the leadership on the results of his talks
with Brezhnev. Ceausescu's colleagues expressed their deter-
Ceausescu presumably intends to continue playing up
to Moscow--at least for the present. At a meeting of the Roma-
mination to maintain the "upward trend" in bilateral relations.
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