NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029200010026-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2005
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: August 16, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Monday August 16, 1976 CI NIDC 76-192C
State Department review completed
AL 2 X1
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions 0
Top Secret 25X1 0
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LEBANON: New Christian Offensive
EGYPT-SYRIA: Propaganda Exchanges
EGYPT-LIBYA: Terrorist Bombing
National Intelligence Dail Cable for Monday, August 16, 1976
25X1
25X1 The NID Cable is for the purpose of informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
Page 1
Page 3
Page 5
ISRAEL: Labor Alignment's Problems
Page 8
GREECE-TURKEY: Aegean Dispute
Page 10
WEST - EAST GERMANY: Defusing Tensions
Page 11
SPAIN:
Economic Program Inflationary
Page 12
POLAND:
Rationing Sugar
Page 13
USSR-PORTUGAL: Gromyko May Visit
Page 14
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Christian forces, apparently encouraged by the fall
of Tall Zatar last week, announced yesterday that the battle to
retake Palestinian positions in the mountains east of Beirut
had begun. Both Christian and Palestinian sources report heavy
fighting in the areas of Aynturah, Mutayn, and Sannin since Fri-
day night.
A new Christian offensive so soon after the fall of
Ta. Zatar could encourage reprisals against Christian communi-
ties even by Palestinians disinclined to retaliate for that de-
feat.
I I The Christians; seem undeterred by the prospect of re-
prisa s. he Christian radio declared on Saturday that the last
Palestinian stronghold in the mountains could be easily overrun
and suggested that a move northward to Tripoli would allow the
Christians to "draw new geographical lines for Lebanon."
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Palestinian and leftist spokesmen allege the latest
Christian moves are aimed at finally partitioning Lebanon.
Phalanges Party leader Pierre Jumayyi.l fueled their suspicions
with a statement Friday in which he advocated separately admin-
istered Christian and Muslim areas.
Jumayyil rejected formal partition, but said that a
return to the pre-civil war system of government is impossible
and that some formula must be found to permit Christians the
freedom and security to administer their own affairs. He pro-
posed talks on his federation scheme between Christian and tra-
ditional Muslim leaders, apparently in an effort to exclude
leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt.
Jumblatt asserted on Saturday that the loss of Tall
Zatar had closed all doors to negotiations, and called for a war
of attrition against the Christians and Syrians. He urged that
all Lebanese leftists who have thus far sat out the war be
mobilized for a "popular army" under the control of his newly
formed political council.
Both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have called for an Arab
summit to discuss the Lebanon situation after the Tall Zatar de-
feat. In carefully worded statements that avoided placing blame
or taking sides, both urged that some sort of concord among the
Arabs is essential to prevent the "deep hatred and desire for
revenge" now prevalent from growing more intense.
Christian sources say that the 2,100 Iraqi militiamen
who they allege arrived in Lebanon on Thursday have now moved
north to consolidate control of the Sidon-Beirut highway. The
Iraqis are said to be building fortifications along a stretch
of the road north of Sidon about half way to Beirut.
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Syria's Interior Ministry Friday night announced new
restrictions on travel between Lebanon and Syria, apparently as
a precaution against the infiltration of Palestinian and Iraqi
saboteurs. Damascus has experienced a series of bombings in
recent weeks, and the Syrians probably fear further reprisals
as a result of the fall of Tall Zatar.
I Travelers in either direction now must obtain permission
to cross the border from Syrian immigration authorities, as well
as from Lebanese "administrative authorities"----presumably Pres-
ident Franjiyah's administrative apparatus.
I I The US embassy in Damascus reports that the Syrians
are snowing some laxity in imposing the new restrictions, but 25X1
close coordination between Syrian authorities and Franjiyah's
administrators could effectively close the border to Palestinian
EGYPT-SYRIA: Propaganda Exchanges
I I Egypt and Syria renewed their propaganda battle over
the weekend with an exchange of denunciations that go further,
particularly in Egypt's case, toward a declaration of political
warfare than ever before in their year-long campaign of mutual
insults.
In an official. statement issued Friday night after
the fall of the Tall Zatar refugee camp in Beirut, Egypt
denounced Syria and the Lebanese Christians as traitors who
have disgraced themselves by cooperating with Israel to crush
the Palestinians.
The statement predicted that the Syrian leadership
will a along with Tall Zatar. It also warned "all these trai-
tors who call themselves Arabs that the battle to purge them
from honorable Arab ranks has begun."
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I Syria responded on Saturday with an equally scornful
but less threatening official statement that rehashed old Syrian
charges of Egyptian cooperation with Israel and, for the first
time, publicly accused Egypt of supplying arms to Palestinian
forces in Lebanon.
Charging that Egypt has consistently refused to arm
t e Pa estinians for operations against Israel, the statement
derided the Egyptians and President Sadat for arming them now
and inciting them "to die in the wrong place." The statement
attributed Egypt's motives to a "blind hatred" for Syria and a
desire to perpetuate the Lebanese war in order to weaken the Arab
struggle with Israel.
I I Damascus challenged the Egyptians either to open
Egypt's borders for fedayeen action against Israel or to send
troops to southern Lebanon to stand with Syrian troops as pro-
tection against possible Israeli intervention there.
I The Syrians know that Egypt is unlikely to risk a
cone is with Israel by taking either action; Syria has itself
carefully avoided such provocations. Damascus hopes to embarrass
the Egyptians by pointing up the insincerity of Egypt's current
support for the Palestinians, and to turn Egypt's charges of
Syrian-Israeli collusion around by accusing the Egyptians of
the same perfidy.
I The Syrian statement appealed for support from the
Egyptian people, but stopped short of directly threatening Sa-
dat. Egypt's statement, on the other hand, seemed to give offi-
cial sanction to hints in the Cairo press over the past few
days that the Syrian government should be toppled.
I In its previous denunciations of Syria, Cairo has al-
ways is inguished between the Baath Party leadership and Presi-
dent Asad, portraying Asad as a victim of Baathist influences.
That distinction has now disappeared, and the Cairo press has
suggested that the fall of the Syrian regime is inevitable.
There is little the Egyptians can do directly to bring
the Asad government down, but they could step up their already.
considerable effort to thwart the Syrians in Lebanon. The
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statement issued on Friday vowed that Egypt would stand "with
all its capabilities" by the side of the Palestinians--a pledge
that at a minimum probably means increased efforts to rearm
Palestinian and leftist forces.
EGYPT-LIBYA: Terrorist Bombing
I lEgyptian officials are assuming that Libya was behind
the om ing of a passenger train in Alexandria on Saturday, al-
though they have no firm evidence and have arrested no suspects.
The bombing--the worst terrorist incident in Egypt in years--
killed 8 and injured 50.
Police questioned three of the injured as possible
suspects, but later released them. Authorities have announced
only that the explosives were similar to those used in previous
incidents known to have been Libyan-inspired.
I The Egyptians are certain to use the bombing on Satur-
day as urther evidence for their case that Libyan President
Qadhafi poses a threat to Egypt and the Arab world, whether or
not they obtain good evidence of a Libyan connection.
One Cairo newspaper has already asserted that the in-
cident is further proof that "indulgence" is no longer possible
with Qadhafi. President Sadat warned repeatedly in an interview
published just before the bombing that Qadhafi "will not escape
from my hands this time."
I I The Egyptians' frequent warnings to Libya over the
past few weeks and the publicity given in recent days to Egypt's
"defensive" military concentrations on the Libyan border are
probably designed in part to reassure the Egyptian people that
the government can provide adequate security against sabotage.
The US embassy in Cairo reports that many Egyptians are becoming
apprehensive about frequenting public places.
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Egypt's warnings also have a distinctly offensive
I-Lavor an appear to be more than mere propaganda. Cairo news-
papers, undoubtedly with government approval, have written frank-
ly of Qadhafi's "liquidation,"
Libya is reacting with studied nonchalance. Although
the Libyans have called for an emergency session of the Arab
Leaque to consider Egypt's threats, Libyan media scoff at them
as the product of Sadat's "mental sickness." One newspaper has
dared Egypt to attack, noting incongruously that war would
break down the barriers to the unity that Tripoli has always
advocated.
Libya appears to be attempting to play on Sadat's iso-
lation in the Arab world to discredit Egypt's position on the
Egypt-Libya dispute. Referring to what it called Sadat's re-
current attacks of "mental illness," Libya's official news
agency yesterday urged all Arab states to be wary of dealing with
Sadat because his behavior on all issues has been irresponsible
and erratic.
I I Although the Libyans are unlikely to gain much sym-
patny or their own position from other Arab states, their ef-
forts to undermine Sadat by highlighting his erratic behavior
find a response among some Arab leaders, man of whom regard
Egypt's tactics in Lebanon as disruptive.
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ISRAEL: Labor Alignment's Problems
I The rescue of the hijacked hostages from Uganda last
montn as temporarily boosted the popularity of the Rabin gov-
ernment and helped mute the persistent criticism in the Israeli
press of the governing coalition.
I IDivisive issues remain unresolved, however, and are
lice y to pose serious problems for Prime Minister Rabin and
the Labor Alignment as political maneuvering intensifies in
anticipation of the national election next year.
The Alignment, composed of Rabin's Labor Party and
the left-wing MAPAM party, dominates Israel's coalition gov-
ernment.
At present, the Alignment--especially the Labor
Party--seems more beset than usual by ideological differences,
factional and personal rivalries, organizational weaknesses,
and apathy at the grassroots.
I I Differences over future negotiations with the Arabs,
particularly over the issue of territorial compromise, have
stymied efforts to draft a political platform for presentation
at the Labor Party's pre-election convention.
I A 30-man drafting committee under former foreign
minister Abba Eban recently abandoned its attempts to recon-
cile differences among its members and decided to submit sev-
eral rival drafts for consideration at the convention.
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Party moderates favor a platform that is more spe-
cific and conciliatory toward the Arabs than the one Labor ran
on in 1973. Key figures such as Foreign Minister Allon and
Eban would like to see the party declare its readiness to make
far-reaching territorial concessions in return for "total
peace" and to negotiate with those Jordanian and Palestinian
representatives prepared to recognize the state of Israel. Not
even these leaders appear to favor negotiating with the Pales-
tine Liberation Organization.
Party conservatives oppose large-scale withdrawals
from occupied territories and have accused the moderates of
trying to appease MAPAM, which has threatened to withdraw from
the Alignment if the Labor Party does not adopt a platform
that offers some hope of conciliation with the Arabs.
The conservatives have also criticized the moderates
for failing to include any reference to Israel's refusal to
return to the 1967 borders, to its rejection of a third state
between Israel and Jordan, or to the right of Jews to settle
anywhere in the "land of Israel"--meaning anywhere on the West
Bank.
Former minister of defense Dayan in particular has
staked out a hawkish position in an apparent effort to reas-
sert his leadership among party hard-liners. This could pose
a threat to Minister of :Defense Peres' own aspirations to take.
over the party leadership from Rabin.
Peres purports to have confidence that he could win
an intra-party struggle should the opportunity arise to chal-
lenge Rabin. He has been slowly gaining. on Rabin among the
Labor rank and file and recently bested Rabin by a narrow mar-
gin in a public popularity poll.
Rabin has typically tried to straddle the issues
an is i ely to work for a compromise platform that both con-
servatives and, moderates can live with. He has said publicly.
that he favors far-reaching territorial compromise, but he is
chiefly interested in maintaining Labor Party unity under his
leadership and preserving the Alignment with MAPAM as Israel
goes into the general election campaign.
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I I The Labor Party badly needs direction and planning.
Rabin is not very interested in party matters and has done
little to attract new people to revitalize the party. Partly
as a result, party membership has dropped from around 300,000
in 1969 to between 40,000 and 50,000 now.
I I The party has also had trouble organizing a prepar-
atory committee for the convention and has had to put off the
election of delegates from October to late December. The con-
vention itself has been postponed several times and is now ten-
tatively scheduled for next February.
One of the Labor Alignment's chief strengths remains
the ina i ity of the opposition Likud to reach beyond its
deeply conservative constituency to attract new voters dissat-
isfied with Labor. This factor helped the Alignment win a
plurality in 1973, and is likely to enhance its chances at
the polls next year. With all of the Labor Party's problems,
however, the outcome of this election is more in doubt than
that of any previous one.
GREECE-TURKEY: Aegean Dispute
The UN security Council will resume its debate on the
Greek-Turkish dispute over oil exploration rights in the Aegean
tomorrow.
The Greeks will continue to hold out for a res-
o ution urging restraint by both sides and incorporating some
reference to the International Court as a means of settling the
dispute. //The Greek foreign ministry's top strategist on the
Aegean problem told Ambassador Kubisch on Friday that Athens
will not accept a statement that merely sums up each side's po-
sition and urges reconciliation.//
The Soviet Union reportedly delivered notes to Athens
and Ankara on Friday callin for restraint and for a peaceful
resolution of the dispute.
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WEST - EAST GERMANY: Defusing Tensions
West German Chancellor Schmidt is trying to contain
the political damage resulting from East Germany's attempt this
weekend to thwart a Christian Democratic - sponsored rally in
West Berlin to protest the Wall. Schmidt wants to continue his
policy of improving relations with East Germany but, with an
eye on the national election in October, he must also take a
strong stand against its harassment of transit traffic.
I Bonn was quick to protest publicly East Germany's
decision on Friday to stop buses carrying Christian Democratic
protesters to West Berlin. for the rally. West German officials
have requested a meeting of the Inter-German Transit Commission
to discuss the matter early this week. The Commission reviews
violations of the agreement governing transit traffic that the
two states concluded in December 1971.
Schmidt has decided to respond to the Christian Dem-
ocratic opposition's charges of government laxity by defending
his attempts to improve relations with the East Germans. In an
interview that will appear today in a West German newspaper, he
states that "only negotiations, not torch processions" promise
to improve life in divided Germany. He indicated that Bonn
wishes to avoid further aggravation and will honor all bilateral
agreements. He insisted that the other side do the same.
I I A major factor in Schmidt's moderate reaction
may be the response of East German party chief Honecker.I
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the recent release by East
Germany of a West German who had crossed the border illegally
seem to imply a desire to defuse the situation.
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SPAIN: Economic Program Inflationary
The economic package recently announced by Spain's
new ca inet will aggravate inflation, increase the budget de-
ficit, and worsen trade problems. The only measure not likely
to add to the already high rate of inflation is a subsidy pro-
gram designed to hold down food prices.
Under the new package, Madrid has authorized extra-
ordinary budget expenditures of $353 million, financed by Bank
of Spain credits, to prop up employment, agriculture, and in-
vestment. Unemployment benefits will be extended from 12 to 18
months, but will be partially offset by lower accident compen-
sation. New industries are to be created in areas of high unem-
ployment. A three-year housing construction program, at a cost
of $118 million the first year, will be funded jointly by gov-
ernment and private sources.
I I Home buyers will receive mortgage subsidies and tax
credits. A corporate tax credit is offered to spur investment
in economically depressed regions and in mining, iron and steel
production, shipbuilding, and agriculture. Taxes will be sus-
pended on stock and insurance purchases to tap private savings
and increase the flow of investable funds to industry. We do
not believe, however, that the current program is expansionary
enough to cut umemployment.
I I Farmers will receive government loan assistance and
increase subsidies to purchase seed, cattle, and feed and to
offset recently hiked fertilizer prizes. All these measures
will fuel inflation, making ultimate stabilization more diffi-
cult.
which political reforms move forward. He believes strong stabi-
lization measures are not now politically feasible.
Prime Minister Suarez said economic problems are the
most i icult, since the eco_iomy affects the conditions under
anti-recession measures are unlikely before the referendum on
The governor of the Bank of Spain has indicated that
political reform and the election promised by next June. As a
result, he believes the economic situation will worsen.I
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POLAND: Rationing Sugar
I The Polish government's announcement last week that
sugar will be temporarily rationed beginning today was another
embarrassment for the Gierek leadership.
months. Stocks of many basic items have been depleted, and long
queues are common.
an serious shortages. The people have been worried about an-
ticipated price rises and have been hoarding for almost two
The rationing is the result of panic buying rather
I The rationing will add to resentment over the govern-
ment's inability to supply desirable goods for the consumer mar-
ket. If the plan works, however, it should ensure that more
people will be able to get at least some sugar.
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According to the plan, most Poles will be entitled
to 2 kilograms (4.4 pounds) of sugar per month--probably some-
what less than monthly per capita consumption in 1975--at the
current price. Sugar purchased beyond the basic allotment, where
supplies permit, will cost nearly two and a half times the ra-
tion price.
The regime also wants to maintain the recently in-
creased pace of sugar exports. During the first five months of
,this year, 151,000 tons of sugar were sold abroad; none was
exported during the same period in 1975.
USSR-PORTUGAL: Gromyko May Visit
The Soviet embassy in Lisbon has informed Portuguese
Prime Minister Soares that Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko would
like to stop in Lisbon for two days on his way to the UN Gen-
eral Assembly session.
Soares does not want a Soviet official to be the first
important leader to visit Portugal after the elections, prefer-
ring to have a West European leader come first. Soares thinks
the Gromyko visit could be helpful, however, if it led the Por-
tuguese Communist Party to soften its opposition to the govern-
ment.
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I From the Soviet point of view, Gromyko's visit would
reaffirm the USSR's desire to maintain ties with Portugal de-
spite Soares' policy of stressing relations with the West. ET
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