NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029200010014-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2005
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: August 9, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE
Monday August 9, 1976
State Department review completed
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
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National Intelligence Daily Cable for Monday, Auaust 9. 1976,
25X1 e miu a e is tor e purpose ot informing
senior US officials.
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Situation Report
EGYPT-LIBYA: Bombing
SYRIA: New Cabinet
USSR-SOMALIA: Vice President's Visit
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LEBANON: Situation Report
Fighting continued throughout the weekend in east
Beirut as Christian militiamen moved to consolidate their
control over the Muslim enclave of Nabaa and the Tall Zatar
refugee camp. The Christians--perhaps with Syrian complicity--
have been taking advantage of Damascus' repeated postponements
of the Syrian-Palestinian-Lebanese truce committee meeting
forcibly to eliminate their adversaries from t1-.Le eastern
sector of the capital.
I I The Syrians gave no reason for their latest cancella-
tion at the meeting scheduled to convene Saturday in Shtawrah.
Although President Asad's difficulties in forming a new cabinet
may have prompted the request, it appears more likely that the
Syrians are stalling implementation of the cease-fire on behalf
of the Christians.
I I The Syrians reportedly are balking over an alleged
e is proviso that the truce committee restrict its work to
security matters and that it consider replacing Syrian troops
with Arab League forces. A meeting between Phalanges Party
leader Jumayyil and former Muslim premier Saeb Salam may be a
first step by the Christians and Syrians to replace leftist
representatives on the committee with traditional Muslim
leaders.
The Christians have heretofore ignored the largely
discredited Muslim establishment, but they may now have decided
to use Salam and other conservative Muslims to undercut Kamal
Jumblatt and his militant allies.
The Red Cross evacuation effort on Friday removed
only 74 people from the camp. The attack on the Red Cross
team by snipers surrounding the pick-up point for evacuees has
reportedly forced the Red Cross to permanently abandon further
efforts to enter the camp. The Red Cross' decision apparently
prompted some 400 families to flee the camp under heavy fire
over the weekend.
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Most Lebanese believe the Christians fired on
the evacuation convoy, and Red Cross officials also accused
them of shelling the Beirut airport late Friday while a Red
Cross plane was on the runway. 25X1
//Although the Phalangists apparently are not
yet prepared to abandon their cooperation with the Syrians or
their efforts to compromise with Palestinian leaders, their
uncertainties have almost certainly diluted their effectiveness
in checking the extremism of Camille Shamun and President
Franjiyah. Shamun and Franjiyah are probably largely responsible
for the Christians' blatant violations of the cease-fire accord
and, more generally, for a heady new confidence among Christians
that they can achieve a total military victory over their
adversaries.//
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EGYPT-LIBYA: Bombing
Egypt claims it has "definite evidence" that Libya was
responsible for the explosion of two bombs yesterday in a govern-
ment building in Cairo that injured 15 people.
I I The Egyptian deputy interior minister charged that the
-1 incident was planned personally by Libyan President Qadhafi to
make it appear that security in Egypt is poor. The deputy minis-
ter also announced that. the Egyptian who planted the bombs--and
who was among the injured--had had extensive contacts with Lib-
yan officials.
I Although Cairo would be inclined at this time to charge
i ya with responsibility for any terrorist act regardless of its
real perpetrator, there is ample precedent for Libyan-sponsored
sabotage operations in Egypt over the past two years. Few of the
previous incidents, however, have been on as large a scale as
yesterday's bombings.
I Syrian President Asad yesterday installed a new cabinet
orme by newly appointed Prime Minister Khulayfawi.
I I The retention of four principal members of the former
gov e nmen --including Foreign Minister Khadda:m and Defense
Minister Talas--signifies that no substantial changes in Syria's
political or economic policies are to be expected. Asad wants
the new government to attempt to solve the serious housing and
transportation problems as well as to attack the corruption and
bureaucratic inertia that have characterized Syria's economic
development over the past few years.
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I I The inclusion of more Baathists from the party's re-
gional command level probably is designed to bolster the cabi-
net's ability to marshall support for domestic policies.
Asad made no attempt to broaden his base of support by
bringing in representatives from Syrian opposition groups. The
new cabinet, like the old, is dominated by the Baath Party and
Sunni Muslims. Four minor political parties retain their tra-
ditional portfolios.
I I The only significant changes were the replacement of
e deputy prime minister for economic affairs and the appoint-
ment of Syria's internal security chief as the new interior
minister. The deputy prime minister reportedly was ousted as
part of Khulayfawi's effort to cleanse the cabinet of officials
closely identified with corruption.
I I The promotion of the internal security chief reflects
the regime's belief that a stronger figure is needed to direct
the Interior Ministry's efforts to deal with new security prob-
lems created by the large numbers of Lebanese refugees in Syria,
Iraqi-directed terrorism, and internal strains stemming from op-
position to Syrian involvement in Lebanon.
I IThe unusual delay in forming the new cabinet reportedly
stemmed rom the need to make arrangements for the disposition
of the deputy prime minister for economic affairs and to achieve
the proper balance among the groups that make u the
national front coalition. F7 1 25X1
USSR-SOMALIA: Vice President's Visit
The USSR played host last week week to an official
delegation from Somalia headed by Vice President Ali Samantar.
The Soviets almost certainly attempted to calm Somali misgivings
about Moscow's warming relations with Ethiopia.
The emphasis seemed to be on party ties. Samantar
saw o it uro member Kirilenko, who evidently was standing in
for the vacationing General Secretary Brezhnev. The Soviet for-
eign economic aid chief, and party secretary Ponomarev also
figured prominently in the visit.
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Soviet General Staff chief Kulikov also participated
in the talks, but military matters do not appear to have re-
ceived prominent attention.
According to the Soviet media, groundwork was laid
for a further development of "large-scale" cooperation in po-
litical, economic, cultural, and "other" fields.
I IThe Soviets may have felt the need for some fence
mending following a recent visit to the USSR by a high-level
Ethiopian government delegation. There are indications that
Somalia was unhappy about the red-carpet treatment accorded
the Ethiopians and the prospect that Soviet military assistance
to Ethiopia may have been discussed during the visit.
A senior Egyptian diplomat in Mogadiscio recently
told t e US ambassador that President Siad secretly sent a
personal emissary to Moscow while the Ethiopians were still
there. The emissary was reportedly instructed to tell the So-
viets that Somalia would view any "military arrangements" con-
cluded between the USSR and Ethiopia as a most serious matter.
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The Spanish government appears likely to drag its feet
on whether to permit exiled Spanish Communist Party leader San-
tiago Carrillo to return home. Carrillo made a highly publicized
application for a passport at the Spanish embassy in Paris last
week.
I The government foresees the possibility of clashes be-
tween the left and right if Carrillo were to return and ha
working behind the scenes to persuade him to remain abroad
the time being.
back eventually, but a Spanish official said Madrid wants to
prevent a Communist-orchestrated theatrical event like the one
that characterized Portuguese Communist leader Cunhal's return
to Lisbon in 1974. Conservative military leaders reportedly op-
pose Carrillo's return. He would require protection against right
wing groups who blame him for murders of nationalists during the
Civil War.
The Spanish government is likely to let Carrillo come
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validated by the 30-year statute of limitations on civil war
crimes that took effect: in 1969. Carrillo would not be subject
to criminal charges for his political activities abroad.
one, according to a Spanish official. He noted that even if
criminal charges were made against Carrillo, they would be in-
Carrillo's return is a political question, not a legal
I According to the official, only about 12 persons have
been is.ed as politically ineligible for Spanish passports--
Carrillo and Communist Party president Dolores Ibarruri were
among them.
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//The most authoritative public statement to
date expressing Soviet dissatisfaction over the conservative
policies of the new Australian government appeared in an article
in Red Star last week. The article makes no threats, but it al-
most certainly is intended to buttress private Soviet warnings
to the Australians to mute their anti-Soviet polemics.//
//The article, pegged to Prime Minister Fraser's
recent trip to Washington, focused on the increased US-Austra-
lian military cooperation--particularly nuclear--that allegedly
resulted from the trip. Red Star charged that Australia's new
policies are making it possible for the US to recoup its losses
in Indochina and Thailand and close the gap in its chain of
strategic bases stretching from the Far East to the Persian
Gulf. The only Asians who approve "the dangerous, adventurous
trends" in Australian foreign policy, according to the article,
are the Chinese.//
//Moscow has been disturbed about the policies of
the Liberal Country coalition since it came to power last Decem-
ber, but responses in the Soviet media to the repeated anti-So-
viet statements of Prime Minister Fraser have been restrained.
Apart from occasional pot shots in the central press, criticism
of Fraser has been limited to broadcasts to Australia and to the
less authoritative press.//
//There has been no effect yet on Soviet-Australian
diplomatic relations. Deputy Prime Minister Anthony, who visited
Moscow in July, said his visit went well and that there was no
specific discussion of Australia's anti-Soviet statements. Eco-
nomic relations seem similarly unaffected. 25X1
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