NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A029100010012-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 17, 2006
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: July 8, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

Pr AV AV AV AV AV AV AV AV AV Air
=
I I --?----
..1JI-F~bUI N~
TO: NAME AND ADDRESS D
: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29101O6Q0'~4;5cret
1 (Security Classification)
2
3
25X
4 CONTROL NO.
ACTION DIRECT REPLY PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL DISPATCH RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT FILE RETURN
0 REMARKS:
411 0
001100101
ATE
INITIALS
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
FROM:
NAME, ADDRESS, AND PHONE No.
DATE
25X1
Access to this document will be restricted to
those approved for the following specific activities:
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY CABLE 0
Thursday July 8, 1976 CI NIDC 76-159C
0 State Dept. review completed 0
0:- AL- 2X1
NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
0
Top Secret
25X1 0
Approved For Release 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975A029gW# -
law 1AW IdIEW 1AW AW 10111W 1AW 1AW! 1AW AO
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29100010012-5
Next 6 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29100010012-5
 Approved For R
lease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T0097
South Africa's announcement that it will no longer
compe t. e use of Afrikaans as a medium of instruction for
black students is a relatively minor exception to the govern-
ment's strategy of blaming last month's riots on subversives
and of suppressing a broader range of "agitators" than ever
before.
The Ministry of Bantu Administration has long required
that schools in the urban black townships use English and Afri-
kaans equally as languages of instruction in the upper elementary
and secondary grades. Black students, teachers, and parents have
resented the use of Afrikaans because they regard it as a symbol
of white domination and because English has more practical value
as the lingua franca of the urban areas.
The revised regulations, announced early this week,
permit the principal of each school for blacks to opt for Eng-
lish as the sole medium of instruction, although schools that
adopt this option must continue some mandatory courses in the
study of Afrikaans.
The school principals--most of whom are black--will
presumably be more responsive to prevailing attitudes in the
black townships than the Ministry of Bantu Administration, which
paid no heed to a student strike in Soweto that had been going
on for several weeks before the outbreak of rioting there.
According to the minister of Bantu administration, the
revise anguage requirements were worked out last week in con-
sultation with community leaders in Soweto, where the worst
rioting occurred.
Approved Forl Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T0097*029100010012-5
 Approved For 4elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975 029100010012-5 25X1
ever, is reflected in a statement last week by the minister of
justice who said he had rejected an application by the Black
Parents Association to hold a mass funeral for Soweto students
killed in the rioting because "well-known political agitators
are actively concerned with this organization and involved in
the planning of the mass burial."
riots, 1,298 persons were under arrest for suspected involvement
in the rioting.
I I It has not been disclosed how many of these have been
charged with criminal offenses, released after questioning, or
are still being held under security legislation authorizing in-
definite detention without charge or trial of anyone suspected
of subversive action or intent.
The basic attitude of top government officials, how-
According to a government statement a week after the
Among the black detainees are an executive of the
Black People's Convention; the administrative secretary of a
commission for social communication, sponsored by the Roman
Catholic Bishops' Conference; and a poet and sculptor who has
been non-political.
The authorities are clearly trying to intimidate any
blacks who have gained some prominence outside the very limited
range of officially sponsored positions in the tribal home la an
or the urban black townships.
African leaders attending the 13th annual summit of
the organization of African Unity, which ended Tuesday, found
little common ground during their four-day meeting in Mauritius.
Tough rhetoric was adopted on South Africa and Rhodesia,
but the meeting largely sidestepped the major territorial dis-
putes involving member-states. Only nine of the OAU's 48 heads
of state showed up--the fewest in the organization's history.
Approved Fq'
 Approved For Re
In addition to condemning South Africa for its handling
of last month's student riots, the summit called for increased
support to Namibian insurgents, extension of the guerrilla strug-
gle to South Africa itself, and a more effective economic boycott
i of Pretoria. The leaders also urged that Transkei not be given
diplomatic recognition when it becomes the first of South Africa's
black homelands to be declared independent later this year.
The summit made no headway in reconciling Rhodesia's
a y actionalized nationalists. In an effort to assert greater
leverage, the conferees reiterated the demand of an earlier con-
ference that all aid for the insurgents be channeled through the
OAU liberation committee based in Tanzania.
I I Although the Israeli rescue operation in Uganda shook
e con erees by again exposing Africa's weakness, they apparently
did not formally affirm support for the Arab-promoted UN resolu-
tion equating Zionism with racism, nor did they call for Israel's
ouster from the UN.
I The summit did endorse a Liberian resolution condemn-
ing srae 's "aggression"--portrayed as the result of Israeli -
South African collaboration--and calling on the UN Security
Council to take measures against Israel and on African states
to intensify their efforts to isolate Tel Aviv.
I The US was condemned for vetoing Angola's admission
to the UN. Some delegates spoke openly of US collaboration with
Pretoria, referring to Secretary Kissinger's recent meeting
with South African Prime Minister Vorster. In private discussions
with US observers, most delegates were more curious about possi-
ble results from the talks than critical of the talks taking
place.
The summit narrowly avoided a split over the contro-
versial issue of Western Sahara by agreeing that the matter
should be taken up by an extraordinary OAU summit to be arranged
sometime before the end of the year.
The present OAU stand is that recognition of the "re-
public" eclared by the Algerian-backed Polisario Front last
March in defiance of the agreement last November under which
Approved Fo
 Approved for Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T009l5A029100010012-5
Spain yielded control of the territory to Morocco and Mauri-
tania, is a matter for African states to decide individually.
So far, nine OAU members have recognized the provisional
Polisario government.
On the French Territory of the Afars and Issas--over
which Ethiopia and Somalia are at. loggerheads--the summit
skirted the key question of territorial guarantees for the
future state.
The group simply called on all states, including Ethio-
pia and Somalia, to refrain from interfering in FTAI internal
affairs and to abstain from any action likely to impede progress
toward independence. Further consideration was postponed to an
OAU-sponsored roundtable conference of all the territory's fac-
tions and liberation rou s, which probably will be held in
Ghana next month.
The appointment of committed reformists to two key
posts in the Spanish cabinet announced last night by Prime Min-
ister Adolfo Suarez supports the Prime Minister's promise to
press ahead with the liberalization program. The failure to in-
clude oppositionists in the cabinet, however, indicates that
Suarez has not yet won the cooperation from the center left
that the government hopes to have in pushing through its re-
forms.
The new foreign minister is Marcelino Oreja, a young
Christian Democrat with firm democratic credentials who has
moved up from the post of under-secretary of foreign affairs.
Oreja shares former foreign minister Areilza's keen support for
Spanish entry into the EC. Although he lacks Areilza's inter-
national stature, he is intelligent and articulate and an ac-
knowledged expert on law of the sea matters.
I The new interior minister is Rodolfo Martin Villa,
who was moved from the Syndical Ministry, where he had laid
plans for an extensive shakeup of the monolithic trade union
system. He is generally regarded as one of the most liberal
Approved F
 Approved For ReIo
young politicians to emerge from the Franco regime. Martin
Villa had some experience in internal security matters during
his successful tenure as governor of Barcelona, where he estab-
lished a reputation for enlightened administration prior to
joining the government last December.
Most of the ten newcomers to the 20-man cabinet are
political moderates or technocrats and several have a strong
background in finance--indicating the government's concern over
soaring inflation and other serious economic problems.
Notably absent from Suarez' cabinet are any represen-
tatives of the far right or publicly identified members of Opus
Dei--the secret lay Catholic society--although at least two of
the holdover ministers are reportedly linked to that organiza-
tion.
Three of the newcomers are members of the center-right
Spanish Democratic Union, a Christian Democratic party led by
Federico Silva Munoz, but Suarez failed in his bid to woo oppo-
sition Christian and Social Democrats into his cabinet; appar-
ently he could not convince them that his program would go far
enough. Many leftist parties, however, including the Christian
Democratic factions led by Ruiz Gimenez and Gil Robles and the
Socialist Workers Party, have indicated a willingness to open
a dialogue with the new government.
The new cabinet will be sworn in today, according to
-
press reports. F7
1
Approved For Re
 25X1 Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29100010012-5
Approved For Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29100010012-5
 Approved For RO
The announcement last week of formal Vietnamese reuni-
ica ion was accompanied by further signs of overwhelming polit-
ical dominance by the North.
The new national assembly, which has just concluded
its first session in Hanoi, the capital of the new Socialist
Republic of Vietnam, elected to the top governmental positions
three northern Vietnamese who held identical posts in the former
Hanoi administration. They are Pham Van Dong as premier, Ton
Duc Thang as president of the new state, and Truong Chinh as
chairman of the standing committee of the national assembly.
I Statements shortly after the fall of Saigon by south-
ern leaders of the former Provisional Revolutionary Government
and National Liberation Front suggested that they hoped to play
leading political roles, initially in a separate southern govern-
ment. Hanoi gave short shrift to such expectations, however, by
quickly abandoning plans for an interim southern administration
and by maintaining tight and visible control of the reunifica-
tion process.
I uIn the new government, former front president Nguyen
Huu Tho was only given one of two largely honorific posts of
vice president. Former provisional government President Nguyen
Tan Phat becomes one of several vice premiers. Former provi-
sional government foreign minister Madame Nguyen Thi Binh is
the new minister of education.
Approved For R4
 Approved ForiRelease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T009715AO29100010012-5
I IParty first secretary Le Duan delivered the keynote
address to the new assembly. It. dealt mainly with the domestic
problems of economic development and integration of north and
south. He put special emphasis on the need for large-scale in-
dustrialization and the adoption of modern technology.
All speakers indicated the government's determination
to convert the south into an economic system compatible with the
north, although the problems of integrating two substantially
different economic zones were acknowledged.
Hanoi's victory was cited as advancing the cause of
communist revolution everywhere, but the now common themes of
cooperation with fraternal socialist countries, special ties
with Laos and Cambodia, and a readiness to develop friendly re-
lations with the other nations of Southeast Asia were also duly
reiterated.
//The Peruvian military government's assurances
a Lima has returned to normal after last week's disturbances
are belied by official efforts to stop rumors of unrest, the
presence of military units in the streets, and panic food buy-
ing.//
I I Bus and truck drivers have called off their week-old
strike, and this should ease tension somewhat. The state of
emergency and the curfew, however, are likely to continue for
some time. Schools will remain closed until next Monday.
//Fearing more violence because of its severe
austerity measures, the government is making numerous preven-
tive arrests and has shut down a dozen right- and left-wing
political journals. Government leaders reportedly are divided
over the controversial decision to close the journals as well
as over several features of the new economic program.//
//Labor and socia-_ organizations, including some
controlle by the government, have begun to charge that the US
government is behind Peru's current problems. Encouraged perhaps
by radical leftist military leaders, this theme may be heard even
more in the coming days as Peruvians try to come to grips with
olitical uncertainties and a worsening economic situation.//
I I
Approved For
 Approved For Rolease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T009754
Argentina's military government has checked the coun-
try's runaway inflation, but at the expense of deepening the
-1 More than 60,000 government employees have been fired
as part of the government plan to reduce the budget deficit by
75 percent in 1976. The monthly inflation rate dropped from 38
percent in March to under 3 percent in June, chiefly as a result
of restraints on wages and cuts in government spending.
I I Real wages, which peaked a year ago, are now at their
lowest point in over a decade. With 1960 as the base year at
100, real wages last month dropped to 63, compared with 210
for June 1975. Economy Minister Martinez de Hoz has permitted
only one 15-percent wage hike since the junta came to power,
while prices nearly doubled before inflation was checked.
I I The government will now try to expand purchasing power
cautious y since businessmen are complaining of declining de-
mand. In particular, the regime will attempt to stimulate for-
eign and domestic investment.
As production begins to revive, the inflation rate is
likely to rise again. The junta's first concern will be to see
that inflation does not again get out of hand.
unite in an "alliance for production" to increase productivity
and reorient output from consumer to capital goods.
Mexican president-elect Jose Lopez Portillo, in a ma-
jor speech before his election on Sunday, called on Mexicans to
I Lopez Portillo urged that economic growth be acceler-
a e , a the lot of the large and growing number of poor be
improved, and that the government deficit be cut. Although the
goals are populist and have led some observers to believe he
will follow President Echeverria's free-spending policies, he
has on other occasions given emphasis to the private sector and
to the solicitation of the advice of business leaders.
Approved For F1elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T009751'
25X1
 Approved For Ro
Over the long run, his programs for both welfare and
for increases in productivity can be achieved only by vigorous
development of Mexico's vast oil reserves.
Since the last devaluation of the peso, in 1954
,
Mexico has earned a reputation for financial stability and sus-
tained economic growth. In 1972, however, the Echeverria govern-
ment initiated an expansionary monetary and fiscal policy aimed
at relief for Mexico's poor and at widening the role of the
public sector.
The government's actions included substantial raises
in money wages, bigger welfare outlays, and a jump in government
payrolls. As a result of these policies and the impact on Mexico
of the global recession, Lopez Portillo will inherit an economy
afflicted by:
--An enormous increase in federal spending and in the fed-
eral government's deficit.
--Rapid inflation.
--Stagnating private investment.
--Slowing economic growth.
--A large current-account deficit.
--Greatly increased foreign indebtedness.
I I The goals set by Lopez Portillo run the gamut from
costly populist welfare programs to incentives for the private
business sector. His administration will confront a narrow range
of options in pursuing these ambitious goals, since it will face
the immediate problem of regaining financial stability. The
critical element of economic policy will be restoration of
private-sector confidence and investment spending.
A turn-around in private investment--which has de-
clined under Echeverria's policies--will depend on a more fa-
vorable business climate and adequate long-term credit for the
private sector. To minimize inflationary pressure, this credit
policy must be accompanied by increased private saving and re-
duced government borrowing.
Approved For (Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29100010012-5
 Approved For R~Iease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975P1029100010012-5 25X1
We expect Lopez Portillo to increase credit to the
private sector but not to woo the business community by reducing
taxes and the state's role in the economy.
25X1 Another major requirement will be to reduce the large
public-sector deficit. Lopez Portillo will probably pursue tax
reform and improvement in administration to prevent tax evasion
in order to increase government revenues. Revenues will also
increase as oil production rises.
//More decisive restraint on government spending
and an increase in labor productivity are necessary to hold the
line on waste and on the share of operating expenditures
budget.
//The new administration will be confronted by a
large external debt. Although debt service is still manageable,
the government will have to shrink its current-account deficit
to assure continued creditworthiness.//
//The prospects for Mexican exports are exception-
s _y bright. Even if imports rise fast enough to allow for an
8- to 9-percent real increase in economic growth in the next few
years, Mexico will be able to reduce drastically its current-
account deficit by rapid development of its petroleum reserves.//
//An expansionary oil policy is essential to carry-
ing out in full Lopez Portillo's economic programs. He apparently
favors a quick expansion of Mexican oil exports. In contrast,
a vocal segment of the Mexican leadership feels strongly that
oil resources should be husbanded.//
Approved For 4elease 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T009754029100010012-5 25X1
 Top AoorovedFor Release 2007/03/07: CIA-RDP79T00975AO29100010012-5
(Security Classification)
7
Top Secret
(Security1 ikilr Release 2007/03/07 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO29100010012-5