NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028700010036-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 14, 2006
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: March 20, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
Top Secret
N2 699
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 20, 1976
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Increase in fighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
RHODESIA: Negotiations break down . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
USSR: Naval preparation for
withdrawal from Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
EC: Loans approved for
Italy and Ireland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
CIEC: Committee meetings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
SOUTH KOREA - UN: Prospects
at General Assembly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
MALAYSIA: Possible civil violence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
FOR THE RECORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
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.,Al Kahh?lah(christian)
*Arayh (Vraze)
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 20, 1976
Fighting increased throughout Lebanon late this week as it became apparent
that it may take some time to negotiate the replacement of President Franjiyah.
The most serious clashes have occurred just east of the presidential palace at
Babda. Pro-Franjiyah forces holding the Christian village of Al Kahhalah have for
two days exchanged fire with Muslim and leftist followers of Kamal Jumblatt, who
hold the Druze village of Alayh.
The US embassy reports that continued fighting in this area could lead to an
exodus of Christians to the secure Christian enclave to the north. This would
represent the spread of de facto partition to an important rural area of mixed
population which has been largely exempt from serious fighting.
Jumblatt is primarily responsible for the continued clashes near the presidential
palace. He is the only significant politician not yet reconciled to the latest Syrian
peace initiative, and appears determined to force all parties to accept a weak
Maronite successor to Franjiyah.
Brigadier Ahdab's political and military influence has been reduced almost to
nothing in the week since he announced his coup. The US defense attache in Beirut
reports, in fact, that Ahdab has virtually no forces under his direct command. Both
Jumblatt and Fatah leader Yasir Arafat remain sympathetic to Ahdab's cause,
however, if not to Ahdab. The three share a desire to minimize Syria's influence in
Lebanon.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 20, 1976
Prime Minister Ian Smith and black nationalist leader Joshua Nkomo
announced yesterday, after a brief meeting in Salisbury, that they have broken off
the settlement negotiations that they have been engaged in since last December.
Apparently Nkomo refused to continue their meetings because Smith had
persistently evaded a commitment to any definite time frame for a transfer of power
to the black majority.
Following a prolonged session with Smith earlier this week, Nkomo visited
Lusaka on Thursday to inform Zambian President Kaunda that he had decided to
break off the talks.
Yesterday,
Nkomo told the press that Smith's latest franchise proposal wou have deferred
majority rule for at least 10 years.
Smith, speaking at a separate press conference yesterday, made no reference to
his latest proposal, but called on Britain to "actively assist in resolving the
constitutional issues." Although Nkomo had previously asked London to convene a
constitutional conference, British spokesmen have indicated unwillingness to do so
unless Smith commits himself unequivocally to move toward majority rule. Smith,
however, has never publicly acknowledged that he would accept a franchise that
might bring about majority rule even within as long a period as 25 years.
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ITALY
LIBYA
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III ACif SEA
Crete ,.~
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MEDITERRANEAN SEA
flbORDAN
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March 20, 1976
The Soviet navy has reportedly been given one month to withdraw from the
port of Alexandria. The US ambassador in Cairo was told by a high-level Egyptian
official that the Soviets were so notified on March 17-only three days after
President Sadat's speech abrogating the friendship treaty between Egypt and the
Soviet Union. Soviet naval units in Alexandria should have little trouble leaving the
port within the time allowed.
Five of the 12 Soviet naval units now at the port cannot move under their own
power and require the assistance of a tug to leave. Two of the ships-a barracks ship
and a large storage barge-have no propulsion systems of their own; the other three
units-two F-class submarines and a tug-are in overhaul. Work on one of the
submarines, which has been in drydock since early January, may be finished within a
month. The other two units are not very far along in overhaul and can probably be
made seaworthy within a short period. There are several Soviet tugs in or near
Egyptian waters.
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National Intelligence Bulletin March 20, 1976
In the first use of the community's new common borrowing facility, EC finance
ministers have approved requests for loans of $1 billion for Italy and $300 million
for Ireland. The EC hopes to complete financing for the loans within a month.
The loans are being funded through four separate borrowing efforts on
European capital markets including: a $300-million six-year Eurobond issue; a
seven-year 500-million Deutsche mark bond issue; a five-year $300-million
Eurodollar syndicated loan; and $500 million worth of privately placed notes. The
Deutsche mark bonds are almost fully subscribed, but the $300 million Eurobond
issue is receiving a slow response because of recent exchange rate fluctuations. The
syndicated loan is meeting some resistance because the rate spread-1 percent above
the London interbank offer rate-is considered too low by many prospective
purchasers. The privately placed notes have not been offered yet.
Despite some current buyer resistance, the EC should have no major problems
obtaining the funds. EC finance ministers sought extremely favorable rates for the
loans but will, if necessary, back off in order to complete the financing package.
EC policy conditions for the Italian loan include ceilings on government
expenditures and deficits, as well as limits on domestic credit expansion. Some EC
officials are skeptical about Italy's ability to stay with these limits.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 20, 1976
The four working commissions of the Conference on International Economic
Cooperation began their second round of talks in Paris on Thursday and Friday. The
week-long sessions will be more sharply focused than those held in February, but
still fall short of the level of specificity most developing states ultimately want.
With an eye on the Nairobi UN Conference on Trade and Development in
May-where the full range of demands by the developing countries will be aired-the
primary concern of these states will be to maintain a united front during the Paris
sessions this month and next.
In the Energy Commission, the delegates will study supply-and-demand
conditions for energy during the next 15 years, and try to reach a decision on how
to conduct a "detailed analysis" of energy prices. The oil producers will concentrate
on ways to protect the real value of their oil earnings, while the industralized states
will press for a study of the worldwide impact of oil prices. The oil-poor developing
states will go along with the oil producers for now, but some have begun to press for
a study of their own oil-related problems.
The developing states will be watching the Raw Materials Commission carefully
for signs of possible concessions by the industrialized states. Topics under
consideration include:
--Supply-and-demand conditions for raw materials, including food.
--Problems of markets for raw materials.
--Problems of export revenues of developing states.
Some of the work of the Development Commission will overlap that of the
Raw Materials Commission. Topics under consideration this week are assistance to
developing countries to improve their agricultural and food sectors and the
improvement of basic economic and social structures in developing states.
The Finance Commission will continue its examination of balance-of-payments
problems of developing states which it began in February. The sensitive issue of debt
problems of developing states will probably not be discussed until April.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 20, 1976
South Korea remains pessimistic about its prospects at the UN General
Assembly in the fall.
Speaking before the National Assembly this week, Prime Minister Choe
criticized UN handling of the Korean issue in recent years and implied that Seoul
would not press its case in New York with a new resolution this year. South Korean
officials, including President Pak, were upset by the outcome at the UN last year,
when Pyongyang's supporters succeeded for the first time in passing a resolution
calling for the dissolution of the UN Command and the withdrawal of US military
forces.
A pro-Seoul resolution, emphasizing the need to maintain the armistice
machinery, also passed but its margin of victory was only eight votes-down from 18
the year before. Seoul doubtless fears that its backers might be unable to secure a
majority for a similar resolution this year. Pyongyang, meanwhile, has already
launched a diplomatic offensive aimed at picking up additional support, and Seoul
may believe there is little hope of preventing a pro - North Korean resolution from
passing again this year.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 20, 1976
Police in some sections of Kuala Lumpur have been placed on alert following
the announcement that a controversial political leader has been removed from his
government and party positions. Supporters of former youth leader Datuk Harun
bin Idris have threatened to conduct further demonstrations to follow up a noisy
rally Thursday night, but police should be able to contain any incidents.
Harun, who was already under indictment on numerous counts of corruption,
was re-arrested on March 12 for misappropriation of state funds. On March 18, a
special session of the United Malays National Organization Supreme Council ousted
Harun from the party, where he was a vice president and head of the youth wing.
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National Intelligence Bulletin March 20, 1976
EGYPT: The only significant change in the cabinet that was formed yesterday
is the creation of a new post, deputy prime minister for production. This is in line
with President Sadat's attempt to represent the appointment of a new cabinet as a
major effort toward resolving economic difficulties, but not much real improvement
is anticipated. Most of the other ministers are holdovers from the old cabinet that
resigned Thursday. All key ministers retained their old portfolios.
EC-AFRICA: The EC is expected shortly to approve about $1.5 million in
emergency food aid for southern Africa and Western Sahara. The EC Commission,
responding to requests from the International Red Cross and the UN high
commissioner for refugees, plans to send $850,000 worth of powdered milk, cereal,
and vegetable oil to Angola and to Zaire for the 30,000 to 60,000 Angolan refugees
there. One hundred tons of powdered milk will be sent to Angola immediately; the
remainder will be shipped as soon as the Commission receives member-state
approval-which is expected shortly. The Commission is also recommending a
$650,000-food aid package for Western Sahara. The aid would be distributed by the
International Red Cross and would also benefit Saharan refugees in southern Algeria.
EC approval may be delayed somewhat, however, because some member states have
raised technical objections to the program.
MEXICO: Mass demonstrations by opposing labor groups in Mexico City this
afternoon pose the threat of violent clashes. Upwards of 20,000 people are expected
at the two rallies organized by a government-affiliated labor group and a
dissident- leftist faction. Both groups plan to march to the national plaza. Riot police
will be on hand in force and should be able to keep the demonstrators separated, but
army units have also been alerted in case of serious trouble.
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March 20, 1976
CAMBODIA: The 250-member People's Representative Assembly will be
elected today from a field of 515 Khmer Communist Party candidates. The assembly
will rubber-stamp party decisions and will probably name the members of a
presidium which, under the new constitution, will represent the government "inside
and outside" the country. I
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