NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028700010018-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 14, 2006
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: March 10, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
Top Secret
N?_ 678
DIA & DOS review(s) completed.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 10, 1976
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Christian and Muslim
leaders divided over mutiny . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I
ZAIRE: Attempts to improve
relations with Moscow and Havana . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
SPAIN: Court
martial ends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
NORTH KOREA: Propaganda
attacks on the US . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
JAMAICA: Economic
problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
FOR THE RECORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 10, 1976
The Lebanese cabinet and parliament were called into emergency sessions
yesterday to discuss ways to end the occupation by Muslim army deserters of two
military installations close to the Israeli border. While Christian and Muslim leaders
are united in their concern that the deserters may spark an incident with Israel, they
seem hopelessly divided over how to deal with the mutiny. Should the rebellion
continue for any length of time, it could trigger similar uprisings by Christian
soldiers and ultimately draw Syrian-controlled troops into a direct confrontation
with Christian forces.
The renegade force led by Lieutenant Khatib has reportedly taken over an
artillery camp at Arnun and the small garrison town of Rashaya on the western slope
of Mt. Hermon. Although Khatib's sympathizers may number up to a thousand men,
less than a hundred followers actually participated in the take-over of the two
installations.
t oug t e
Syrians have been reluctant to become directly involved in controversial debate,
they are increasingly worried that Khatib's actions will prompt further defections,
and will ultimately thwart their plans to rebuild what remains of Lebanon's armed
forces.
While both Syria and the Palestinians see certain advantages in Khatib's open
challenge to Christian control of the Lebanese army, they have been unable to
control the renegade officer despite his reliance on logistical support from Fatah
and Syrian-controlled Saiqa.
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The mutiny has already dimmed prospects for an early conclusion of
negotiations to form a coalition cabinet.
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National Intelligence Bulletin March 10, 1976
Having established the basis for a political accommodation with the Popular
Movement regime in Angola late last month, Zairian President Mobutu now will try
to improve relations with Moscow and Havana, the Popular Movement's two major
backers.
Mobutu, who supported the Popular Movement's rivals, almost broke relations
with Moscow last year in response to its support for the Popular Movement.
Relations with Cuba were also strained, although Mobutu refrained from any formal
protests to Havana.
Mobutu's intentions were conveyed by Foreign Minister Nguza to the Soviet,
Cuban, and East European ambassadors late last week. Nguza told the ambassadors
that Zaire would welcome better relations but would expect a withdrawal of Cuban
forces from Angola.
Nguza later remarked to the US ambassador that President Mobutu was not
encouraged by the meeting and that he expects Cuban forces to assist liberation
groups in Rhodesia and Namibia. Nguza pointed out that President Mobutu cannot
argue against nationalist movements in southern Africa.
Mobutu is feeling particularly vulnerable just now. The heavy role played by
Havana and Moscow in Angola has served to remind him him that both countries
contributed to the instability in Zaire in the early days of its independence and
worked to keep him from assuming power. Cubans, in particular, have vowed
revenge against Mobutu because of his role in the death of Patrice Lumumba.
Mobutu apparently believes that his reconciliation with the Popular Movement
may not be enough to ensure Zaire's security. He is also concerned that the Popular
Movement's victory will encourage further Soviet and Cuban adventures in Africa.
Zaire is in the grip of a serious economic slump. Its army has been demoralized
by the poor showing it made in Angola when troops sent there to assist the National
Front were easily routed by Popular Movement and Cuban forces. Mobutu has
managed to obtain Western support to help his country out of its economic slump,
but has been less successful in strengthening his military forces.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 10, 1976
The court martial of ten military officers accused of belonging to the illegal
Military Democratic Union ended yesterday amid signs that the Spanish military
authorities are opting for strong punishment.
Yesterday the charges against the defendants were changed from
sedition-defined as the unauthorized gathering of more than four officers-to
plotting military rebellion. The serious nature of this latest charge suggests that the
government intends to issue severe sentences. Press accounts are now predicting
sentences of up to 12 years imprisonment and dismissal from the service.
There has apparently been little hard evidence, however, against the accused
officers, and the prosecution may find it difficult to make such serious charges stick.
The verdict will be delivered later this week.
Whatever the verdict, the case is likely to provoke further dissatisfaction in the
military. Hard-line military leaders want to make an example of the ten in order to
discourage any dabbling in politics by younger officers. Those members of the
military hierarchy who favor leniency argue that harsh measures would have the very
effect the hardliners want to avoid-politicization of the younger officers and
potential polarization of the military.
Meanwhile, the Basque provinces, recovering from the most widespread strikes
since the civil war, were relatively quiet yesterday with no violence reported.
Leftists, however, have called for a "day of struggle" today in the volatile Asturias
coal-mining area west of the Basque country. Asturias has been torn by labor strife
over the past few years and has recently been plagued by two months of strikes
involving most of its 20,000 coal miners.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 10, 1976
Pyongyang has sharply intensified its propaganda attacks on the US in the past
two weeks, apparently in an effort to build support for its policies at the nonaligned
summit in Colombo this summer and at the UN in the fall.
Pyongyang's attacks have emphasized the temporary US deployment late last
month of F-111 fighter-bombers to South Korea for exercises. The propaganda also
reiterates charges that the US has sent more troops and nuclear weapons into South
Korea and that military cooperation among the US, South Korea, and Japan has
been strengthened. Pyongyang describes these developments as having created a
"grave situation" in which "war may break out at any time."
The North Koreans have used similar language periodically in the past, but
since late February such warnings have been featured almost daily in Pyongyang's
propaganda. Moreover, Pyongyang has assailed the F-111 deployments in a formal
Foreign Ministry statement, the highest level North Korean protest of a US action in
South Korea since 1971.
The North Koreans obviously want to impress audiences in the US, South
Korea, and Japan with the intensity of their opposition to US policies. Another
important target is the Third World, where there is considerable sympathy for
Pyongyang's claim that the Korean problem is a colonial issue, and that the source
of tension is not in the North, but in the continuing presence of US forces in the
South. Pyongyang has been successful in winning the support of nonaligned
militants, but still has considerable spadework to do among the many Third World
countries that remain reluctant to become involved in the Korean dispute. This
search for Third World support strongly suggests that Pyongyang will press for
another confrontation at the UN General Assembly this fall.
Both Peking and Moscow have been circumspect in replaying Pyongyang's
attacks on the US. The Chinese have given a bit more coverage than the Soviets, but
both have excluded the more inflammatory passages
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National Intelligence Bulletin March 10, 1976
Prime Minister Manley recently announced the largest tax program in Jamaica's
history to deal with the island's severe economic problems.
The severity of the economic plight is reflected in the fact that by
mid-February foreign exchange reserves had fallen in a little over six months from
$146 million to $36 million. A deteriorating balance-of-payments situation, brought
on principally by a drop in sugar production and prices and a decreased demand for
aluminum products, has little chance of improving soon. The government anticipates
this year's foreign exchange earnings to be at least 40 percent below last year's.
As a consequence, the government has had to introduce an $81-million tax
package to maintain the budget at last year's level. A wide range of taxes has been
implemented, but the burden will fall most heavily on "those who can most afford
to pay." Other measures announced include new wage and price guidelines,
exchange controls, a rise in interest rates, and further restrictions on imports.
Devaluation was discussed but has been postponed for the time being.
Manley remains committed to easing the country's grave social problems, and
indeed has insisted that his social programs will continue, but lack of government
revenue is making it increasingly difficult for him to make good on his promises.
In the meantime, the persistent poverty and high rates of unemployment in
urban areas have given rise to a cult of violence that has brought the slums of
Kingston to the verge of anarchy. The business community, middle class, and much
of the older generation, on the other hand, are digging in to thwart Manley's
attempts to lead Jamaica toward a socialist society.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
March 10, 1976
UK: London recently authorized its Defense Ministry to proceed with the
development of the air defense variant of the European multirole combat aircraft.
This move ends a long political and military debate and gives testimony to the UK's
support for European cooperative military programs. Only last week, the House of
Commons Expenditure Committee had questioned the air defense variant's overall
performance over the US F-14 or F-15 aircraft. Of the 807 combat aircraft to be
ordered by the UK, West Germany, and Italy, Britain will receive 220
strike-reconnaissance and 165 air defense versions. According to British Defense
Minister Mason, the program may provide some 24,000 jobs in the UK.
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