NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028600010018-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 17, 2006
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: February 11, 1976
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
Top Secret
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 11, 1976
CONTENTS
MOROCCO-ALGERIA: Moroccans reportedly
plan to attack Polisario stronghold . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
OAU-ANGOLA: Recognition
of Popular Movement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
SOMALIA: Diplomatic campaign to
gain support in dispute with France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
USSR: Plans for 25th
party congress continue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
SPAIN: Basques
divided over terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
NATO: Attempt to
standardize equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
ARGENTINA: President possibly
losing support of labor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
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National Intelligence Bulletin
Morocco is planning to attack and occu
sometime this week,
February 11, 1976
the Polisario stronghold of Mahbes
A Moroccan minister who is a close confidant of King Hassan told the US
ambassador on February 6 that Rabat is in no hurry to take Mahbes. The King had
told Arab emissaries, according to the source, that Morocco has no intention of
crossing the Algerian border.
The minister said the Algerians would have "weeks" to evacuate the town, but
they could not remain there indefinitely. He told the ambassador that Algeria had
withdrawn its forces from Tifariti last week by prearrangement-apparently as a
result of Egyptian Vice President Mubarak's mediation efforts.
A Saudi official in Rabat gave the US ambassador a similar account of this
story yesterday. The Saudi said King Hassan told him that he had issued orders to
his military forces not to cross the Algerian border.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 11, 1976
The Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola announced last night that
its forces had captured the rail-port complex of Lobito-Benguela. Lobito, Angola's
largest port, is deep within the National Union's area of tribal support. Moreover, its
capture-which we cannot confirm but which we have regarded as imminent-would
end any hope of the National Union being able to survive as a conventional military
force in central Angola.
National Union forces are now centered in Bie (Silva Porto) in central Angola
and have established a number of outlying defensive positions. It is almost certain,
however, that the National Union will be forced to withdraw south to Vila Serpa
Pinto before long. Such a withdrawal will put the National Union into an isolated
area of Angola from which it will be extremely difficult to launch guerrilla activities
against the Popular Movement, such as National Union President Jonas Savimbi
hopes to do.
Ugandan President Amin, current chairman of the Organization of African
Unity, yesterday announced in effect that the Luanda government of Popular
Movement leader Agostinho Neto has been accepted by the OAU as the sole
representative of Angola. Consequently, Amin said, Uganda has extended official
recognition to the Neto regime.
The announcement by Amin, who played a major role in trying to check the
Popular Movement's drive for acceptance as the only legitimate Angolan
government, removes any doubt that the Movement will be seated at the OAU
ministerial meeting scheduled for later this month.
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National Intelligence Bulletin February 11, 1976
ornalia has launched a diplomatic campaign to gain support in its dispute with
=e,re over the incident last week in the French I err itorv of the Afars and Issas.
The campaign evidently is intended to deflect attention from Mogadiscio's role
in backing the terrorist group and to exploit the incident in order to gather support
previously lacking for Somalia's position on decolonizing the territory. Mogadiscio is
pressing for the withdrawal of all French forces from the territory and its
unconditional independence.
Mogadiscio asked last Thursday for a UN Security Council session to condemn
what it called France's "act of unprovoked aggression" against Somalia. Informal
talks are continuing at the UN to arrange a date for the meeting. Some African
delegates are apparently attempting to persuade Somalia to withdraw its request out
Of concern a debate will reveal disunity in African ranks.
Somali President Siad and other Somali officials are charging that France and
certain colonialist forces" are threatening to invade Somalia. At a rally on February
Ii, Siad alleged that 14 warships belonging to France and "other imperialist forces"
were at Djibouti.
The Somali army remains in the state of alert declared last Friday. Ethiopia has
responded by alerting its armed forces.
Addis Ababa is clearly concerned about the intentions of the Somalis, who
closed the border at several points last week. According to the US embassy in Addis
Ababa, the Ethiopian alert reflects concern, probably overdrawn, that the border
insurgency, which Somalia has been supporting, might escalate to overt hostilities.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 11, 1976
Plans are proceeding for the 25th party congress to convene on Fe:b.r.u,ary, .24.
Available information suggests that few major changes are anticipated.
There had been widespread speculation last year that General Secretary
Brezhnev would choose the occasion to announce his retirement, but this now
appears unlikely. Republic first secretaries who have spoken thus far to their local
congresses have paid Brezhnev due homage, suggesting that they believe he will
remain at the helm for the time being.
Of the ten republic party congresses concluded to date, analysis of nine
available reports indicates an expectation of future stability and of Brezhnev's
continuing in office. Georgian party boss Shevardnadze was particularly effusive in
describing Brezhnev as embodying the best qualities of the Leninist example. The
Central Committee plenum's announcement of December 1 that Brezhnev would be
the main speaker at the congress suggests that he has no plans of stepping down at
this time.
The upcoming event will focus primarily on domestic issues. A general
endorsement of Soviet foreign policy is anticipated, however, and Brezhnev's guiding
hand in its success will be roundly praised.
Brezhnev promised in 1972 that a new constitution would be prepared in time
for the congress, but in mid-December a Soviet official said there is no prospect of
this. According to the official, a constitutional commission has fallen behind in its
preparatory work and is reportedly having difficulty defining for the draft document
the constitutional role of certain state committees.
The tenth Five-Year Plan, which outlines economic objectives for the
1976-1980 period, was approved by the USSR Supreme Soviet in December and will
be submitted to the congress, for formal approval. Premier Kosygin will also report
on the state of the economy at that time. A 15-year economic plan (1976-1990) was
to have been presented, but official silence on this issue makes its introduction
doubtful.
The advanced age of many of the Politburo members suggests that some change
in its composition could take place.
This congress will be the third held under Brezhnev's leadership, and if it
follows previous sessions it will be businesslike and largely ceremonial.
Approximately 5,000 delegates from all over the Soviet Union, as well as honorary
delegates from nearly 100 countries, are expected to attend the affair, which will
last about ten days.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 11, 1976
Two murders in the Basque area this week, including that of the mayor of a
Bilbao suburb, may aggravate differences within the Basque Fatherland and Liberty
(ETA) terrorist organization and could reduce its support among other Basques.
The mayor was a conservative who did not support the terrorist organization's
separatist demands. A more militant wing of ETA has claimed credit for the murder,
;ind threatened to execute other local officials who support the Spanish government.
The two killings are only the second and third acts of Basque terrorism since
Juan Carlos became king last November. The decrease in violence appears to
represent a decision on the part of the Basque terrorists to modify their
antigovernment tactics, which had stressed assassination of government
=officials-especially policemen.
The other terrorist act was the kidnaping on January 24 of a Basque
industrialist's son; he reportedly is still being held in southern France by the ETA
splinter group of the terrorist organization. The kidnaping provoked anger in the
kidnap victim's home town, where a protest demonstration was held. The Basque
Nationalist Party-the principal opposition group in the Basque area-also issued a
statement attacking the kidnaping. Until now, few Basques had spoken out against
terrorist acts.
The dissident ETA faction, believed responsible for all the incidents, apparently
differs on tactics with the organization's executive committee. The committee
apparently is behind the decision to hold off on further assassinations, following the
weakening of the organization by the government's antiterrorist campaign last fall.
The dissident group evidently hopes continued terrorist acts will provoke more
official repression and prevent the government from instituting limited regional
autonomy in place of the separate nation the terrorists want.
Interior Minister Fraga has stated that the government will not allow
marginal" terrorist acts to block political reforms. Signs of Basque disapproval of
the latest terrorist acts may make it easier for the government to continue with its
plans. Opposition groups are worried, however, that the killing may damage their
campaign in the Basque area and in Barcelona for a general amnesty for political
offenses.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 11, 1976
The ad hoc. committee on equipment compatibility held its first meeting on
February 5 and approved the formation of five working groups to recommend ways
to improve NATO's military capabilities.
The various groups will initially study the compatibility of tactical
communications, interchangeability of ammunition, standardization of fuel,
cross-servicing of aircraft, and status of existing standardization agreements.
Despite the fact that one of the most serious drawbacks to effective operations
is the diversity of land, sea, and air communications systems, the allies have plans to
introduce six new, incompatible tactical communications systems in the next several
years. The working group in this area was urged to. recommend a single compatible
system and foster common links among existing national nets.
Another problem concerns the lack of interchangeability of ammunition for
guns in main battle tanks. The more than 13,000 tanks in alliance inventories consist
of seven different models and are equipped with three different calibers of major
guns. In addition, the various types of ammunition manufactured for the guns of the
same caliber often have differing characteristics, and some are not interchangeable.
NATO states plan to replace some 10,000 tanks over the next 10 to 15 years;
compatibility of weapons prior to then would be thus desirable.
Attention will also be directed to adopting common or interchangeable fuels
for aircraft and ships. Major NATO facilities generally can provide basic services for
aircraft of other countries but are often unable to provide additional support and
supplies necessary for operational sorties.
The fifth working group is tasked to review the status of some 600
standardization agreements, at least 90 of which relate to equipment
standardization. Assessments of their relative importance are to be made as well as
cost determinations.
The five working groups are to identify the most serious problems, recommend
solutions, and formulate procedures to ensure compatibility of future materiel. The
ad hoc committee is to provide an interim report to the NATO ministers in May and
a final report in December.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
February 11, 1976
President Peron may be on the verge of losing her only remaining source of
significant support. Some labor leaders are for the first time expressing a willingness
to see the army oust her.
Unionists are said to be angry over their systematic exclusion from government
decision-making, which is now monopolized by a small circle of Peron's personal
advisers. For many union bosses the last straw was the dismissal of the respected
economy minister, Antonio Cafiero.
To make matters even worse, the President is openly seeking to renew relations
with dissident unionist Victorio Calabro, the governor of Buenos Aires Province,
whom she and labor leaders read out of the Peronist movement some months ago.
Calabro has long been the single most important challenger to labor's two
paramount chiefs, who until now have tried to protect labor's stake in Peronism by
backing the President.
Union heads met on Monday to discuss a response to the administration; one
strategy proposed is that all labor representatives in the congress and government
resign simultaneously.
A complete break between the labor movement and the administration would
remove a major impediment to a military takeover. One labor leader has reportedly
assured the military that workers would raise only symbolic resistance to a coup.
Reluctance to involve troops in clashes with resisting workers has been an important
consideration to officers who have so far hesitated to move against the government.
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