NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028400010039-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 39
• Publication Date: December 23, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA & DOS review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 23, 1975
LEBANON: No confirmation of
Syrian troops at Zahlah . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
USSR-TURKEY: Kosygin visit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
CUBA: Party
reorganization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
BOLIVIA-CHILE-PERU: Bolivian
access to the sea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
INDIA: New defense minister
an ally of Gandhi's son . . . . . . . . . .
LAOS-THAILAND: Vientiane
seeks help on border issue . . . . . . . .
EC-US: Compromise on
agricultural negotiations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 23, 1975
We cannot confirm press reports that Syrian army troops have joined in the
fighting at Zahlah, Lebanon.
There were heavy clashes and artillery exchanges between Zahlah and the
neighboring village of Saadnayel on Sunday and Monday. They involved primarily
Christian and Muslim private militias and the Lebanese army, which for several
months has tried to restore calm in the area.
Units of the Syrian-controlled Saiga fedayeen organization have possibly been
involved in the clashes. There are approximately 3,000 Saiga troops in Lebanon, at
least 500 of them in the Bekaa Valley area near Zahlah and Saadnayel.
The reports of foreign intervention may have come from I lyas Harawi, who is a
member of parliament from Zahlah and a Maronite Christian ally of Interior Minister
Shamun. Harawi has tended to exaggerate the ferocity of the fighting in his home
area. He may have misrepresented Saiqa forces as Syrian regulars to discredit
Lebanese Muslims and leftists by suggesting that they must depend on outside
support.
President Franjiyah is convinced that numbers of Palestinian and Syrian troops
have recently infiltrated into Lebanon from Syria. Franjiyah reportedly complained
to Syrian army Chief of Staff Shihabi about this during their meeting last Friday.
The Lebanese President instructed a personal representative who visited Damascus
on Sunday to raise the matter with President Asad and Foreign Minister Khaddam.
Prime Minister Karami was in Damascus yesterday to continue his talks with Syrian
leaders.
Fighting in Beirut remains at a relatively low level one week after the latest
cease-fire was proclaimed. Serious clashes continue in the Tripoli-Zagharta area in
the north and in villages south and east of the capital.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 23, 1975
Soviet Premier Kosygin arrives in Turkey on Friday for a five-day visit. The
inauguration of the Soviet-aided Iskenderun steel plant is the ostensible reason for
his visit, but Kosygin's main purpose will be to continue Moscow's efforts to exploit
US-Turkish frictions and to improve its relations with Ankara.
In his conversations with Turkish Prime Minister Demirel, Kosygin probably
will urge continued economic cooperation. He may suggest that Moscow poses no
threat to Turkish interests and indicate that the Soviets are willing to sell Turkey
military equipment.
The Turks will continue their efforts, which have accelerated since the US arms
embargo was instituted, to take some of the chill and antagonism out of relations
with their communist neighbor without altering ties to the West. They no doubt
view Kosygin's visit as a useful signal to the West that Turkey cannot be mistreated
or taken for granted.
The Iskenderun project that Kosygin will dedicate is one of Moscow's largest
aid commitments, involving $420 million in Soviet credits. Construction on the
project started in 1970; the first stage, now being opened, will produce 1.1 million
tons of steel annually when completed.
Last July, Moscow and Ankara signed an economic and technical cooperation
agreement that may provide as much as $600 million to $700 million in additional
credits for several projects. Eventual expansion of Iskenderun's capacity to 4 million
tons per year is envisioned in this accord.
Kosygin may also raise the issue of extraditing two Soviets who hijacked an
aircraft to Turkey in 1970.
The incident, which has been a
continuing irritant, has prompte the Soviets to propose to Ankara that an
agreement on air piracy be reached.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 23, 1975
The reorganization of the Cuban Communist Party at its first party congress all
but completes the institutionalization process that has been under way in all facets
of Cuban society for the past five years. The results of the congress, which ended
yesterday, indicate that Fidel Castro is still in complete control, and that Cuban
policies are now more closely aligned with Moscow's than ever before.
The re-election of Fidel and Raul Castro to their party posts was announced
yesterday by Fabio Grobart, believed to be the only surviving member of the
13-man group that met near Havana in August 1925 to form the first Cuban
Communist Party. The selection of the Polish-born, 70-year-old Grobart-long
suspected of being a Soviet agent-to make the announcement, and the lengthy
praise he gave Fidel, were probably intended to signify the total unity of views of
the Cuban Communist leadership.
The same message can be read into the elevation of Arnaldo Milian and Jose
Ramon Machado Ventura, two provincial party chiefs, to the Political Bureau.
Milian is a pre-revolutionary communist, while Ventura is a veteran of Castro's 26th
of July guerrilla movement. Also added to the Political Bureau were Carlos Rafael
Rodriguez and Bias Roca, both high officials of the pre-revolutionary Communist
Party, and Pedro Miret Prieto, an associate of Fidel's since their days at Havana
University.
Thus, the "old" communists, who heretofore had no representation on the
Political Bureau, now have 3 of the 13 seats. The same trend toward greater
representation of the "old" communists is expected to appear in appointments to
the new party Central Committee, which will probably also be expanded.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 23, 1975
Bolivian President Banzer announced on Sunday that Chile has agreed in
principle to his demands for Bolivia's long-sought sovereign corridor to the sea.
Newspapers in Santiago over the weekend reported that Chile is prepared to
cede to Bolivia a corridor along its border with Peru in return for a small piece of
Bolivian territory. Definition of the precise territory involved, among other
bargaining problems, will make prolonged negotiations necessary.
Although Banzer was vague about the details of the reported agreement, he said
that negotiations to implement an accord would begin now. He said Peru would be
consulted regarding any transfer of territory, in keeping with the terms of a 1929
treaty regarding disposition of land Peru lost to Chile in the War of the Pacific a
century ago.
Even if La Paz and Santiago are able to agree on the specifics of a territorial
exchange, Peru's concurrence is not likely to be easily or rapidly obtained. It does
appear, however, that Chile informed Peru before making public its movement
toward an agreement with Bolivia.
Peru's ambassador to Chile stated on Chilean television last
Friday that his government understood and was interested in Bolivia's requirement
for an outlet to the sea. It is unlikely that he would have made such a statement
without prior clearance from Lima.
The announced agreement places Peru in a diplomatic corner. Peruvian leaders
cannot long remain silent now that Chile and Bolivia have noted publicly that Peru
will in fact be consulted as required by the 1929 treaty. If Lima agrees to a
Chile-Bolivia territorial accord, it could be seen in effect as renouncing any
revanchist designs on its former territory.
Peruvian President Morales Bermudez' position in this matter remains unclear,
but at a minimum, protracted and difficult bargaining within the Peruvian military
government can be expected. Peru is likely to complicate the diplomacy further b
imposing restrictions of its own on any proposed Chile-Bolivia settlement. 25X1
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 23, 1975
The rebellious air force officer's came to terms yesterday with their superiors,
ending the insurrection begun last Thursday. A number of the officers are certain to
be retired, and one brigade commander has already been replaced.
No air bases remain in rebel hands, although some individuals continue to
resist. A work slowdown called by the pro-government General Labor Confederation
to protest the rebellion was almost immediately called off.
The rebels' only success, achieved early in the uprising, was the replacement of
their commander-in-chief. The underlying problem-the status of President
Peron-remains unresolved. In a brief speech last night, Peron reiterated her
intention to stay in office despite attempts by those with "petty pretexts" to depose
her.
The new Indian minister of defense, Bansi Lai, is a close ally of Prime Minister
Gandhi's increasingly influential son, Sanjay. Lal's appointment to the Defense
Ministry-he had been serving as minister without portfolio-was announced on
December 20, along with a number of mostly second-level cabinet shifts.
Lai, who is 48, entered the cabinet for the first time last month when Gandhi
made the first significant ministerial changes since the emergency went into effect
six months ago. In that shake-up, Gandhi ousted long-time cabinet member Swaran
Singh as defense minister, temporarily retaining the portfolio herself.
Lai is a former chief minister of Haryana State. He is considered a tough,
efficient administrator whose views are compatible with Sanjay's conservative
orientation. Sanjay reportedly is behind a move to replace aging cabinet members,
such as the 68-year-old Singh, with younger, more vigorous figures.
F I
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 23, 1975
Vientiane is seeking help from non-communist diplomatic missions in
persuading Bangkok to reopen the Thai-Lao border.
The Lao deputy foreign minister yesterday summoned the US, British,
Malaysian, and Indonesian charges to his office. He admitted that the economic
situation in Vientiane was bad, attributing it to Bangkok's closing the border
following the mid-November clash along the Mekong. The official said the Lao
would not meet the Thai demand for negotiations on border problems, but indicated
that his government would be willing to exchange views on the agenda for talks after
Bangkok reopens the border. He asked all four governments to intervene with
Bangkok, and said he thought the US could be especially helpful because of its good
relations with Thailand.
The Lao had hoped to withstand Bangkok's pressure for negotiations by
moving vitally needed supplies through Vietnam. The Vietnamese earlier this month
began moving some supplies by air from Hanoi, but the quantities have fallen far
short of Lao requirements. Vientiane is now experiencing severe shortages of food,
gasoline, and consumer goods.
Vientiane apparently has also sought help in other communist capitals. Soviet
officials in Bangkok evidently gained permission to begin airlifting basic foodstuffs
and petroleum from Bangkok, using Aeroflot aircraft. Substantial quantities of
Soviet aid have been stranded in Thailand because of the border closure.
Prime Minister Khukrit has been taking a tough line on relations with Laos, as
have others in the Thai government, suggesting that the border will not be reopened
until the Lao give some indication of a willingness to negotiate seriously on the
border problems.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 23, 1975
A new compromise accord on procedures for the agricultural portion of the
multilateral trade negotiations was reached at the meeting in Geneva earlier this
month of the trade negotiations committee. The accord papers over the US-EC
differences that had threatened to disrupt the meeting and allows negotiations to
begin. The EC and the US will hold bilateral talks next month to set further ground
rules.
The compromise, while noting that basic differences remain between the EC
and Washington, allows for both bilateral and multilateral agricultural negotiations,
and calls for all negotiating groups to work "in concert" with each other. The EC,
reluctant to liberalize trade in agricultural commodities, had sought to isolate the
agricultural discussions from the rest of the multilateral trade negotiations. The
paramount concern, especially as far as France is concerned, is the maintenance and
protection of the EC Common Agricultural Policy.
The accord represents a setback for France. Paris had proposed five changes,
only one of which was accepted, and was then presented with a fait accompli; EC
negotiators accepted the compromise without notifying individual member states.
France is the most intransigent of the EC members on agricultural issues and had
effectively blocked all previous US-EC attempts to resolve the impasse.
The trade negotiations committee adopted, among other things, the following
work programs for next year:
--agreement on the major elements of a tariff negotiating plan;
--agreement on approaches to negotiations on non-tariff matters such as
subsidies and countervailing duties, quantitive restrictions, and customs
matters;
--completion of negotiations on tropical products;
--agreement on procedures for reforming the safeguard clause that allows
nations to restrict imports for balance-of-payments reasons or for protection of
domestic industries.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 23, 1975
ETHIOPIA: A US technician working for a US contract firm was kidnaped by
five unidentified Ethiopians on December 21. His abductors, according to witnesses,
did not identify themselves or the group to which they belong. The Ethiopian
military conducted a search but with no results. Two Americans have been held by
Eritrean insurgents since mid-July. and two others since September.
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