NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028400010035-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 19, 2006
• Sequence Number: 35
• Publication Date: December 20, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA & DOS review(s) completed.
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December 20, 1975
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 20, 1975
LEBANON: Syria continues
efforts at mediation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
SPAIN: Moves to liberalize political
system meeting opposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
PORTUGAL-AZORES: Azorean reaction
to Lisbon's decree on autonomy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
ARGENTINA: President Peron
refuses to resign . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
OAU: Emergency summit
called on Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
VIETNAM: The reunification issue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
CAMBODIA-LAOS: Phnom Penh supports
Indochinese communist demands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
SOUTH KOREA: Cabinet shuffle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
AUSTRALIA: Make-up of new cabinet
suggests pragmatic approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 20, 1975
Lebanese political leaders yesterday traded accusations over the causes of the
most recent fighting, while Syria continued its efforts to mediate the dispute.
Interior Minister Shamun and Phalanges Party leader Jumayyil charged
yesterday that "communists" were behind the recent trouble at Sibnay, a small
Muslim village southeast of Beirut where Shamun's forces clashed with Muslims
allied with Socialist leader Jumblatt early in the week. Jumblatt has again called for
Shamun's resignation-along with that of President Franjiyah-and issued his
standard demand for political and economic concessions from the Christians.
The bickering between Shamun and Jumblatt reportedly has prompted the
Syrians to summon the latter back to Damascus for another round of talks. The
Syrians apparently warned Jumblatt during his visit last week that he would lose the
backing of Syrian-supported groups in Lebanon if he did not "shape up." He is
expected to return to the Syrian capital within the next few days.
General Shihabi, Syrian army chief of staff, arrived in Beirut yesterday,
presumably to inform Prime Minister Karami of Syria's mediation plans. President
Asad apparently intends to delay sending Foreign Minister Khaddam to Beirut until
the cease-fire becomes more effective.
Fighting diminished in most of Beirut's suburbs yesterday, but armed clashes
continued in the Tripoli-Zagharta area in the far north. Lebanese security forces
aided by Palestinian patrols are moving into the disputed area, and members of the
Syrian-controlled Saiqa fedayeen group apparently are trying to arrange a truce
between Christian and Muslim militiamen
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 20, 1975
Moves by the government to liberalize the political system are falling short of
leftist expectations while stirring up strong opposition from the far right.
Leftist demonstrations in Madrid last Thursday illustrate the government's
difficulty in making a convincing show of liberalization. A government spokesman
reportedly had said earlier in the week that peaceful manifestations of opposition
would be tolerated, and this break with the Franco tradition was confirmed when
the Interior Ministry gave permission for the demonstration.
When several hundred leftists gathered in front of the Ministry of Justice,
however, they were attacked by members of the extreme rightist Guerrillas of Christ
the King. The attack triggered intervention by police, who by most accounts used a
minimum of force to disperse the crowd. At least two wounded demonstrators were
taken to the hospital.
The demonstration, like most recent leftist rallies, focused on demands for
complete amnesty for all political prisoners. King Juan Carlos' pardon decree of
November 25 has been widely criticized by the left on the grounds that its
ambiguous wording would allow the government to favor common criminals while
virtually excluding political prisoners.
In fact, of the estimated 15,000 prisoners in Spanish jails, almost a third have
already been freed by the King's pardon. Only 235 of those released are considered
political prisoners, but the US embassy in Madrid estimates this may constitute
almost half of all political prisoners. Leftists claim, however, there are some 2,000
political prisoners, and they will doubtless continue their protests.
The new minister of justice, Antonio Garrigues, may interpret the decree more
liberally than his predecessor, paving the way for further releases. The government
has already taken steps to improve its image by releasing two of Spain's best known
political prisoners-dissident priest Francisco Garcia Salve and Communist labor
leader Marcelino Camacho. Both men were originally freed by the King's pardon and
shortly thereafter rearrested for inciting demonstrations.
A few hours after the new cabinet was announced on December 11, Camacho
was again released, reportedly at the command of the director of the security police
acting on orders from Juan Carlos. Shortly after Thursday's demonstration, Father
Garcia Salve also was set free.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 20, 1975
In other moves, the government has lifted previous fines levied on priests for
"objectionable" sermons, and the minister of education has annulled some sanctions
on students who violated academic discipline.. The military also has dropped charges
against three of the officers detained last summer on charges of sedition.
While the government's i n i t i a l rnovestoward liberalization have failed to
appease the left, they have stirred up opposition in the rightist-dominated
parliament. Yesterday, right-wingers in parliament called on Prime Minister Arias to
appear before the legislature to explain the government's "political projects."
Parliamentary critics also singled out the new foreign minister, Jose Maria de
Areilza, who said on Wednesday that the exiled head of the Spanish Communist
Party, Santiago Carrillo, is entitled to a passport "like any other Spaniard," and
should not be discriminated against because of his ideology. Areilza went on to
point out, however, that "problems of a judicial nature" might await Carrillo in
Spain should he return.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 20, 1975
All but one member of the six-man Regional Council-the chief Azorean
governing body-reportedly threatened to resign Thursday, after learning that the
Portuguese cabinet had refused to grant the Council the degree of administrative
power it desired. The sixth member is likely to follow suit.
The decree, approved by the cabinet on Tuesday, in fact delegates less
authority to the Regional Council than it had already assumed for itself in the
absence of any guidelines. The cabinet may have believed that, with the waning of
sentiment on the islands for independence, the granting of limited powers would
satisfy the islanders' demands for autonomy. Clearly it does not.
The Council members reportedly believe that their threat to resign, which is
being conveyed to Lisbon by Azorean military governor Maghalaes, who is
sympathetic to the drive for autonomy, will be enough to make Lisbon reconsider.
The new decree does seem out of phase with a draft autonomy statute that the
Portuguese government has been reviewing, and it may not be Lisbon's final decision
in the matter. After the cabinet has time to examine the draft statute more fully,
and is made aware of the adverse reaction on the islands to its latest decree,
additional concessions may well be made.
If not, there are likely to be renewed calls for independence in the islands.
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December 20, 1975
The air force revolt is still not completely settled. Press reports state that the
service commanders have asked for the resignation of President Peron as the only
solution to the crisis.
Military leaders seem unsure of whether to oust the air force rebel officer group
or let the government stamp out the revolt. Peron has apparently been placed in the
untenable position of either ordering the army to put down the revolt or stepping
down as chief executive. Army commander General Videla has urged all of his units
to remain "aloof" from the rebellion and has indirectly called for the President to
resign.
In press statements yesterday, the President refused to resign. Opposition
Senate leaders later called on her to request a leave of absence, implying that this
was the only way to avoid a military takeover.
The military will reportedly make no move until the government takes a stand.
A likely solution would be for Peron to step clown and allow Senate President Luder
to assume the presidency under the constitutional succession law. This would allow
the much-desired change in government to transpire as well as obviate the necessity
for a military government
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 20, 1975
The Organization of African Unity announced yesterday that a majority of its
46 member states have agreed to hold an emergency summit meeting on Angola
from January 10 to 12 in Addis Ababa.
The summit-the OAU's first extraordinary gathering of chiefs of state since
the inception of the organization 12 years ago-will be preceded by a two-day
meeting of foreign ministers. The ministerial session will debate various approaches
for dealing with the Angola situation and set the agenda for the summit.
OAU members are badly divided over the Angola problem, and the
summit-which could turn out to be acrimonious-may contribute little toward an
African solution to the conflict. Most OAU states still cling to an outwardly neutral
position, but South Africa's much-publicized role in support of the National Union
is causing many governments to waver. South Africa's intervention is considered a
more immediate threat to the integrity of Angola and to African interests than is
either Soviet or Cuban involvement.
At the summit, supporters of the Popular Movement will try to get the
conferees to abandon the OAU's present stance of neutrality and to recognize the
Movement as the sole legitimate government of Angola. They will argue that South
African intervention on behalf of the Popular Movement's rivals has made it
impossible to work toward the OAU's previous goal of a government of national
unity. They probably will push for a resolution that condemns South Africa and
asks OAU members to aid the Popular Movement.
The few African governments that privately support the National Front and the
National Union-none has officially recognized their regime-want to keep the OAU
officially neutral. These countries and National Union leader Jonas Savimbi hope in
the short time left before the summit opens to promote a backlash against Soviet
and Cuban assistance to the Popular Movement. Support will be sought at the
summit for a blanket condemnation of all outside involvement in Angola. including
the US, and for a cease-fire and a government of national unity.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 20, 1975
The South Vietnamese communists will convene a conference this weekend in
Saigon of representatives from "all walks of life," ostensibly to discuss the
procedures for formal reunification. In reality, the conference will merely
rubber-stamp the decisions announced last month in Saigon following a joint
conference of senior government and party officials from both North and South.
Last month's conference announced plans for a census to determine the
number of South Vietnamese representatives needed for a new joint National
Assembly. Following the census, a nationwide election for the new assembly will be
held.
There are conflicting accounts concerning the progress of the census.
The communists have officially announced that the reunification process will
be completed by the "first half of 1976." They may intend formal reunification to
coincide with three important anniversaries in the spring: April 30, the first
anniversary of the collapse of South Vietnam; May 15, the first anniversary of
formal celebrations commemorating the communist victor ; May 19, the birthday of
the "father of the country," Ho Chi Minh
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 20, 1975
Cambodia has for the first time supported Laos and Vietnam in their demand
that the Thai expel the remaining US military presence from Thailand.
The joint communique issued yesterday following the visit to Phnom Penh by
Lao Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Phoun Sipaseut stated that both
countries face a threat to "peace and security" as long as US military bases and Lao
and Cambodian "traitors" remain in Thailand. This is the first official Lao visit to
Cambodia since the communist take-over there and reciprocates the visit of
Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister leng Sary to Laos in October.
Endorsement of Hanoi's position on the US presence in Thailand reflects
Phnom Penh's concern that it keep more or less in line with its communist neighbors
in Indochina. The Cambodians, however, have not joined Hanoi and Vientiane in
insisting that Bangkok return all aircraft and military equipment taken into Thailand
during the last stages of the war as a precondition for normalizing relations. Phnom
Penh's continued silence on this issue may reflect its interest in improving relations
with Thailand and the Cambodian leadership's apparent determination to maintain a
basically independent stance in Indochina.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 20, 1975
The removal of Prime Minister Kim Chong-pil in a cabinet shuffle yesterday
eliminates a major political figure whom President Pak may regard as a potential
rival.
Kim, who had been prime minister since 1971, is one of the few politicians left
in South Korea with substantial independent stature and popularity. He cited poor
health as his reason for stepping down, but the move was obviously ordered by Pak.
Although Kim was the chief architect of the coup that put Pak in power in 1961 and
has been a faithful executor of Pak's policies, he apparently regarded himself as a
logical presidential successor.
Kim was replaced by Choe Kyu-ha, who has been Pak's special assistant for
foreign affairs. Unlike Kim, Choe has no independent stature. Nine other cabinet
ministers, including the foreign minister, were replaced. Most of the new ministers,
with the exception of the unimpressive Choe, appear to be technically proficient.
More important, none is a political figure in his own right.
The cabinet changes mean a further personalization of Pak's control over the
government ministries, not a change in policy. In addition to Choe, two other senior
presidential assistants and several loyal assemblymen were moved into the cabinet.
The cabinet shuffle apparently had been under consideration by Pak for some time,
and the timing of the move suggests he wanted to take advantage of the quiet period
following the end of the National Assembly's session on Thursday.
Kim's removal may be followed by moves against others who could emerge as
rivals to Pak. Chong II-kwon, for example, could be removed as speaker of the
National Assembly when Pak reappoints some National Assembly members in
March.
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December 20, 1975
The cabinet announced by Prime Minister Fraser on Thursday suggests a
pragmatic approach by his new administration.
The appointment of Anthony Street, from the center of the Liberal spectrum,
as labor minister will help reduce fears in the trade union movement that the new
government is about to take harsh measures against the unions. Robert Hawke,
president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, is known to have a high
personal regard for Street, and his appointment will help reduce the likelihood of
widespread union strife.
One of the more liberal members of the Liberal Party, Andrew Peacock, has
been confirmed as minister for foreign affairs. There had been some speculation
Peacock would be dropped from this key ministry, which he held in Fraser's
caretaker cabinet. Fraser sees Peacock as a potential rival but apparently retained
him in deference to Peacock's strong support in the Liberal Party.
Although the Liberal Party's overwhelming election sweep would make it
technically feasible to form a government without assistance from the
National-Country Party, Fraser is clearly intent on keeping the coalition strong
because the Liberals are likely to need the Country Party over the longer haul. These
political considerations and Fraser's strong conservative bent seem to explain why
the Country Party was awarded 6 of the 24 cabinet positions despite the party's
current weak bargaining position.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 20, 1975
MOZAMBIQUE: Forces loyal to the government appear firmly in control in
Lourenco Marques. The authorities are rounding up the dissident members of the
army and police who clashed with loyal troops on Wednesday and Thursday.
Tensions have diminished, and businesses are open in the capital. The US embassy
reports that the press accounts of widespread disorders have been highly
exaggerated. Very few of the dissidents were active within the city itself; their main
effort apparently was directed against army facilities in the outskirts.
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