NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028400010022-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 17, 2006
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: December 12, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

1,141-
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Too Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA & DOS review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1975
LEBANON: Radical leftists
conditionally accept truce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
ICELAND-UK: Fishing
dispute escalates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
SPANISH SAHARA: Morocco sends
in more security forces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
ITALY-FRANCE: Communists already
preparing for European Parliament elections . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
NATO: Eurogroup progress,
in arms standardization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
EC-PORTUGAL: Improvement
of trade terms delayed . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
NORTH KOREA - IRAN: Kim II-song
visit to promote economic relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
NORTH KOREA: Two Komar guided-missile
boats moved close to Northern Limit Line . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
MEXICO: US fishing
boats seized . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
FOR THE RECORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1975
Radical leftists last night conditionally accepted Prime Minister Karami's latest
call for a truce. They will decide whether to participate in political negotiations on
the terms of a more durable cease-fire after meeting with the Prime Minister.
The leftists are demanding that Karami "explain" why the government used the
army in Beirut's commercial center this week. They also want an explanation of a
speech made by President Franjiyah on December 10, in which Franjiyah denounced
the continuing violence in terms that the leftists considered placed undue blame on
them.
The decision to accept the cease-fire came after the leftists met with leaders of
the Palestine Liberation Organization. Zuhayr Muhsin, head of the PLO military
department, told newsmen that the Palestinians had been able to act as mediators
because they "are not a party to the conflict." Muhsin is head of the
Syrian-controlled Saiqa fedayeen group. His involvement in negotiations and recent
attempts to keep his followers out of the fighting are part of Damascus'
behind-the-scenes effort to end the clashes.
Palestinian and Lebanese leaders most closely allied with Syria, unlike the
independent or Iraqi-supported leftists, have cooperated from the start in Karami's
efforts to implement a cease-fire. A representative of the Lebanese wing of the
Syrian Baath Party in effect supported the right-wing Phalangists by charging that
"certain elements" are seeking to undermine the positive effects of Phalangist leader
Jumayyil's recent trip to Damascus.
Representatives of the two largest Christian political parties, the Phalangists
and the National Liberals, have said that they will respect the cease-fire. A Phalangist
representative has pledged that his party will allow an official inquiry into the causes
of the killings last weekend that set off the current round of fighting.
This relatively cooperative attitude has resulted in part from the Christians'
inability to turn the tide of battle in the hotel district. Despite intervention by army
commandos, the leftists appear to control two of the three hotels that command the
seafront between the Christian and Muslim areas of Beirut.
The US embassy considers that fundamental changes may occur in Lebanon
within weeks if the country's leaders remain unable to reduce the current level of
fighting through political' negotiations. In ascending order of consequence for the US
government and for Middle East security, such changes could include:
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 12, 1975
--The resignation of Karami and Franjiyah.
--The collapse of the government if continued fighting precludes holding
parliamentary and presidential elections next year.
--An army coup.
--Efforts by ultraconservative Christians to partition the country.
--Syrian and Israeli intervention in Lebanon.
We have no reliable evidence that Lebanese or other leaders are planning any
such moves now, but the heads of several factions-anticipating a showdown at the
time of parliamentary elections next A ril-could soon decide to employ more
drastic measures to secure their positions.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1975
The incident yesterday in which an Icelandic patrol boat was rammed by two
British support ships inside the 12-mile limit represents a major escalation of the
fishing dispute. The patrol boat subsequently fired on the British ships. According to
press reports, the Icelandic cabinet decided last night to submit a formal complaint
to the UN Security Council over the ramming.
The incident will also complicate the talks the Icelandic and British foreign
ministers are having in Brussels during the NATO foreign ministers' meeting. British
officials had hoped to avoid serious incidents during the NATO meeting. London
feared that an incident at sea would embroil NATO directly in the dispute and
prompt Icelandic Foreign Minister Agustsson to demand that the North Atlantic
allies support Iceland. Agustsson had intended, according to the US embassy in
Reykjavik, to make a relatively moderate plea for support. NATO officials also
hoped that tensions would be eased if Agustsson and British Foreign Minister
Callaghan agreed to reopen the stalled talks on a new fishing agreement.
According to British officials, Callaghan is not prepared to make unilateral
concessions on the main sticking point-the size of the British catch. The British
have told Icelandic officials that they will reduce their demands if Reykjavik raises
its standing offer of 65,000 tons to a figure a roaching the 110,000 tons demanded
by London.
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SPAIN -1
PORTUGAL
*Me~ritl ,'
Ceuta - M c I 4 t I lers'
bel
/ Re
ML3ROGco
SPAN I3fi
SAHARA
Spanish Sahara
TENERIFE, "f y FUERTEVENTURA
GRAN Las Palmas
CANARIA
CANARY ISLANDS
(SP.)
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 12, 1975
Morocco is continuing to strengthen its security forces in northern Spanish
Sahara, anticipating a rapid Spanish withdrawal from the territory.
A Spanish Foreign Ministry official recently indicated that virtually all Spanish
forces and civilians will be out of the Sahara by December 20, well ahead of the
scheduled February deadline. The Spanish want to avoid involvement in hostilities
between Morocco and the Polisario Front or its sponsor, Algeria.
Yesterday, the first Moroccan army units arrived in El Aaiun, the capital, amid
much fanfare from Moroccan officials already on the scene. Moroccan police units
have been in El Aaiun for several weeks and are beginning to move into some
outlying towns.
Operations are under way in the northeastern part of the territory against
guerrillas of the Polisario Front. The guerrillas are now using mortars, machine guns,
and grenade launchers. According to Spanish press reports, Polisario guerrillas
machine-gunned a Moroccan police car in El Aaiun Tuesday. They probably were
also responsible for a pre-dawn raid yesterday on a Moroccan garrison outside the
city.
Scattered fighting reportedly is also occurring between Mauritanian forces and
Polisario guerrillas along the southern Spanish Saharan border. Nouakchott has
mobilized its 1,500-man army and Moroccan C-130s are shuttling arms and
ammunition into the capital.
Algiers remains opposed to a Moroccan-Mauritanian take-over of Spanish
Sahara and is continuing a limited military build-up in southwestern Algeria adjacent
to the Sahara. The Algerian government has declared a Sahara solidarity week and is
staging demonstrations throughout the country. These rallies are clearly intended to
arouse anti-Moroccan sentiment, but we believe the government is also trying to
develop domestic support for increased Algerian assistance to the Polisario Front.
The Algerian media are highlighting Polisario claims of military success against
Moroccan forces in the Sahara.
The Polisario guerrillas cannot defeat the more heavily armed Moroccan army,
but with Algerian backing they can probably keep up terrorist and sabotage attacks.
The automated belt conveyor system that moves phosphate ore some 60 miles from
Bu Craa to El Aaiun is especially vulnerable to guerrilla operations.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1975
Debate on Spanish Sahara in the UN General Assembly has ended with the
adoption of two contradictory resolutions. This outcome is a setback for Algeria,
which sought formal UN disavowal of the Spanish-Moroccan-Mauritanian agreement
that provided for giving the territory to Rabat and Nouakchott.
The new Spanish cabinet, which is to be sworn in today or tomorrow, promises
a break with the past. It is liberal in Spanish terms, as King Juan Carlos and Prime
Minister Arias try to take some of the wind out of the opposition's sails.
Manuel Fraga Iribarne, the new interior minister, and Jose Maria de Areilza, the
new foreign minister, favor an early and fairly extensive liberalization of the Spanish
political system. Most of the other posts are filled by men who favor gradual, but
significant, change. The new justice minister, former ambassador to the Vatican
Antonio Garrigues, for example, may interpret the King's controversial pardon
liberally enough to free many of the remaining political prisoners-an emotional
issue for the left.
Lieutenant General Santiago Diaz de Mendivil was named deputy prime
minister and coordinator of defense affairs. He is one of the less conservative
members of the military high command.
The new minister of the government's labor organization, Rodolfo Martin Villa,
and the new minister of the prime minister's office, Alfonso Ossorio, are also men
who favor gradual democratization. Indeed, the entire cabinet list provides scant
comfort to die-hards on the right. Leftists are unlikely to greet the new government
with any public enthusiasm, but they may be privately encouraged by a cabinet that
is as liberal as they could have realistically hoped for.
The cabinet will have to move quickly to deal with demonstrations and strikes
organized by the left. Thousands of industrial workers struck yesterday as labor
action spread from Madrid to other industrial areas, including Barcelona, the
northern Basque country, and the Asturias coal mines. The two principal themes of
the strikers have been political amnesty and the wage freeze. The strikes so far have
failed to paralyze the construction and metal workers' industries-boding ill for the
Communists' plans to organize a nationwide general strike early next month.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1975
ITALY-FRANCE
Although the first direct elections to the European Parliament will not take
place for more than two years, the Italian and French Communists are already
beginning rena tiong for the contest aimed at obtaining a leftist majority in the
parliament
p
hese preparations are the first follow-up to the joint declaration OT
signed last month by Italian Communist chief Berlinguer and French Communist
leader Marchais.
The European Parliament now consists of representatives appointed from the
legislative bodies of the EC member countries. The EC heads of government agreed
last week, however, to hold the first direct elections to the parliament in the spring
of 1978. With this decision, the parliament is assuming greater importance as a locus
for political debate over the future of the Community. West European Christian
democrats, conservatives, and centrists are also beginning to discuss alliances in
anticipation of direct elections to the body.
Procedures for direct elections have not yet been established, but the French
and Italian Communists reportedly calculate that by maintaining their current voting
strength they could capture 25 to 30 percent of the French and Italian delegations
to the proposed 355-seat parliament. They would then work for close coordination
among left-of-center parties, and ultimately, for a leftist majority that would include
such parties as the Italian and French Socialists and the West German Social
Democrats.
The French and Italian Communists will face major obstacles in implementing
this strategy. European socialists and social democrats are sharply divided on
cooperating, in electoral alliances or otherwise, with the communists. The French
Socialists, for example, resent the West German Social Democratic Party's coolness
toward the strategy of local alliances with communist parties.
Brandt apparently wants to improve socialist solidarity, both within and
outside of Europe, prior to undertaking a dialogue with the communists. Along with
Swedish Prime Minister Palme and Austrian Chancellor Kreisky, Brandt is trying to
promote a new alliance of socialist parties that would be more effective in fostering
ties than the existing Socialist International. The difference in attitudes toward
communist parties is likely to be a prime issue at a conference of some 40 to 50
West European socialist government and par~v leaders that Brandt and Palme plan to
hold in Denmark on January 18 and 19.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1975
Eurogroup defense ministers on December 8 reviewed achievements this year in
arms standardization and plans to establish greater cooperation next year in
acquiring new equipment.
Eurogroup-which consists of European NATO countries except France,
Portugal, and Iceland-has long sought to standardize armaments through common
purchase or collaborative production. Accomplishments in 1975 cited by the
defense ministers include a four-country coordinated purchase of the US Lance
surface-to-surface missile system, which is now entering service, and the US F-16,
which will not be delivered for several years. The Multirole Combat
Aircraft-produced by Italy, West Germany, and the UK-continues flight trials, and
deliveries have continued for the British-French Jaguar aircraft. Although not a
member, the US has supported Eurogroup standardization by agreeing to increase
procurement of European equipment, including more British Harrier aircraft and the
French - West German Roland I I surface-to-air missile.
Eurogroup plans to improve its military capabilities further by introducing
additional ground, naval, and air weapons in 1976. In addition, the Allies want to
standardize the upgrading of existing arms. Successive modifications of some
equipment by individual countries have reduced or destroyed interchangeability.
Several nations have already agreed to a common upgrading of the Hawk SAM
system. Eurogroup believes standardization and joint operations will increase
efficiency and save money. F77 I
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1975
Although the EC is proceeding with plans for various direct financial aid
projects to Portugal, the community will be unable to meet Portugal's desire to
begin talks by the end of this year on improving trade relations.
Member-state resistance to liberalizing one or another aspect of the existing
trade agreement is preventing the EC from formulating its position on a new accord.
At an EC Council meeting this week, France opposed easing restrictions on
Portuguese wines, Britain objected to more textile imports, and West Germany
spoke against further increases in social security benefits to Portuguese workers in
the community.
Community officials still hope that a Council meeting in January will make a
favorable decision, but high-level political decisions by EC leaders-based on a
judgment that Portugal now requires a sign of European approval-may be needed to
overcome budgetary constraints and trade protectionism.
Independent of EC programs, a long-promised German-Portuguese aid
agreement was signed last week. Bonn is giving Lisbon about $27 million for
specified agricultural development projects.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 12, 1975
NORTH KOREA- IRAN
North Korean President Kim II-song will begin a state visit to Iran later this
month, possibly on December 21. His main purpose will be to promote an expansion
of economic relations between the two countries.
A major topic on Kim's agenda is likely to be the $200-million loan promised
earlier this year by Tehran against future Iranian purchases of cement, steel, and
corn. This loan would help defaults that have ruined its
credit rating in the West.
Pyongyang, worried about its precarious foreign exchange situation, sent
Deputy Prime Minister Chong Chun-ki to Tehran in October in an attempt to
expedite the credit, but he apparently made no progress. Kim was invited to Iran
during Princess Ashraf's visit to North Korea last May. According to the US embassy
in Tehran, the Shah has reluctantly agreed to Kim's visit on the grounds that he can
no longer delay it.
South Korea also has been actively courting Tehran in an effort to obtain loans
and further expand economic relations. Although generally satisfied with their
country's relations with Iran, South Korean officials nevertheless will be watching
developments during Kim's visit for any indications that Pyongyang might be
improving its stock with the Shah.
Kim's trip to Iran will make his failure to, visit Moscow all the more
conspicuous in view of his trips last spring to China, Eastern Europe, and several
nonaligned countries. Soviet officials have since maintained privately that a trip to
Moscow by the North Korean leader is in the offing, but that no specific date has
been set.
By avoiding Moscow, Kim may be expressing dissatisfaction with Soviet
political support and with the levels of Soviet military and economic aid. The
Soviets, for their part, may have done nothing to encourage a visit in order to show
their displeasure with the improvement in Sino - North Korean relations since the
early 1970s. Kim's trip to Peking last April-which apparently was arranged hastily
on his initiative-and the subsequent visit to Pyongyang of Politburo member Chang
Chun-chiao underlined the closeness of the present relationship. North Korea has
also indicated partiality toward Peking by including in North Korean media
anti-Soviet remarks made in Chinese leaders' speeches.
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North Korea
KOREA
RAY J%
R`yonvyang
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, '1975
NORTH KOREA
Pyongyang has shifted two of its Komar guided-missile boats to a base less than
ten miles from the east coast Northern Limit Line. This move, following similar
activity earlier this year on the West coast, gives the North Koreans a stronger naval
presence in areas of possible confrontation with South Korea.
Since March, at least one Osa guided-missile boat has been continually based at
Sunwi-do, near the UN Command - controlled islands off the west coast. Recently,
Pyongyang shifted its native-designed Sohung-class missile boat, which is similar to
the Komar, to Sunwi-do. Both units came from the main west coast missile base at
Tasa-ri. The North Koreans may be rotating missile boats between the two bases
and similar rotations may possibly occur on the east coast.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 12, 1975
The recent seizure of four US shrimp boats by the Mexican navy suggests
Mexico is adopting a policy of strict enforcement of claimed territorial waters.
The boats, seized last week, were the first taken into custody by Mexican
authorities since March. Three were charged only port fees amounting to about
$500. The fourth boat was given a minimum fine of $6,000-plus port costs-for
resisting arrest. Although shrimp catches were confiscated, the nominal fines suggest
the seizures were warnings.
Recent criticism of the navy in the Mexican press has undoubtedly generated
some pressures to take action against foreign fishing boats in Mexican waters.
Another reason for stepped-up enforcement may be Mexican legislative action to
establish a 200-nm offshore economic zone. When it becomes effective in the spring,
this measure will affect US shrimping in the Gulf of Mexico. Last week's arrests
could be an indication that the Mexicans will no longer take a tolerant view of
violations of their claimed territorial waters. The arrests will also give the
government a better bargaining position, if bilateral talks are required.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 12, 1975
ISRAEL: Israel has purchased from a US shipyard a 230-foot ship, originally
designed as an offshore oilrig support craft, and modified it to serve as a missile boat
support ship. It will operate with Saar-class missile boats in the Mediterranean. It is
expected to increase appreciably the operational range of Israeli missile boats in the
eastern Mediterranean. The ship was turned over to an Israeli crew in early
November, and is due in Haifa early next week. Shakedown tests and sea trials are
expected to be completed by March or April.
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