NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028400010018-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 18, 2006
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: December 10, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
DIA & DOS review(s) completed.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 10, 1975
LEBANON: Key hotels
contested in Beirut . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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ANGOLA: OAU moves toward
emergency summit on Angola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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USSR: Brezhnev speech . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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UK: Defense budget . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
GREECE-CYPRUS: Possible
intercommunal talks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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BANGLADESH: Food availability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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ETHIOPIA: Emergency
ended in Addis Ababa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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FOR THE RECORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Areas of Heavy Fighting
Beirut, Lebanon
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 10, 1975
Radical Muslim forces have gained control of some previously contested ground
during the heavy fighting in Beirut this week.
The Christian and Muslim combatants and the Lebanese security forces seek
control of key hotels to gain a commanding field of fire over disputed territory in
adjoining neighborhoods. The leftists, who occupied the St. Georges Hotel on
Monday, late yesterday were vying with army troops for control of the Phoenicia
Hotel.
Right-wing Phalangist militiamen evacuated the Phoenicia during a brief local
truce. They suffered heavier casualties than their Muslim opponents, who apparently
had moved in heavier weapons, including anti-aircraft guns supplied by the fedayeen.
The Phalangists, who claimed last night to have made gains in other areas, are
holding out along a front that extends from the hotel district to Beirut port. They
use this corridor to supply their forces in the hotel district from more secure
Phalangist strongholds south of the port.
The leftist forces are led by Ibrahim Qulaylat, a radical Lebanese Muslim
backed by Libya and some Palestinian fedayeen groups. His Independent Nasserite
Movement has some 400-500 militiamen and can draw on substantial backing from
rejectionist Palestinians, radicals within the major fedayeen groups, and Lebanese
Communists. Qulaylat yesterday repeated charges that Lebanese army troops were
firing on Muslim forces, and said his followers would retaliate. According to press
reports from Beirut, several army vehicles were fired on by Muslim and Palestinian
forces, and at least two army commandos were killed.
Lebanon's political leaders so far have come up with no strategy for ending the
renewed fighting. The best hope is that the leftists-who are claiming victory-will
convince themselves that their limited military gains constitute sufficient revenge for
the murder of numerous Muslims by Phalangists last weekend. The Id al-Adha
Muslim holiday that starts late this week may provide an excuse for both sides to
stop the fighting.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 10, 1975
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The military situation in most of Angola remains essentially unchanged as the
Organization of African Unity reportedly moves toward an emergency summit on
the problem.
Supporters of the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, among
others, have pressed for a summit, hoping to force a shift in the organization's
position on Angola from one of neutrality to an endorsement of the Popular
Movement's role. When the summit convenes-apparently not until after the first of
the year-it is likely to focus on the issue of outside intervention in the Angolan
conflict.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 10, 1975
General Secretary Brezhnev's speech at the Polish party congress yesterday was
short on substance, but repeated recent criticism of the West.
As was appropriate to the occasion, B rezhnev devoted over half of the speech
to talking about the steps taken toward closer economic and political cooperation
between Poland and the USSR, and, more generally, about the beneficence of the
communist community. He referred to the norms of "socialist internationalism"-
words that in Yugoslavia and Romania translate to Soviet hegemonism-but he
quickly followed with a sentence alluding to the independence and sovereignty of
the states that make up the communist community.
In commenting on relations with the West, CSCE was clearly on Brezhnev's
mind, perhaps because the Polish party congress offered an appropriate venue for
repeating a few "truths" about the Helsinki agreement. His demand that no single
aspect of the agreement be emphasized over another and his criticism of the West for
its alleged failure to disseminate the text sufficiently have been said before; so, too,
has his reference to "ideological penetration" by the West. He made explicit
reference to the follow-up CSCE session in Belgrade in 1977 and spoke favorably of
the possibility of organizing European congresses to address such problems as the
environment and energy over the next two years. This clearly was meant as a trial
balloon, and more will probably be heard from Moscow on this matter.
Brezhnev's speech, as is often the case, is as interesting for what he chose not to
say as for what he actually said. There was no rejoinder, implicit or explicit, to
criticism in the US regarding Soviet activities in Angola. He made no mention of a
communist duty to support liberation movements, nor did he refer to the
inevitability of continued ideological struggle. He did repeat the familiar formulation
on moving ahead with detente despite the efforts of Western critics, but he did not
say anything explicit about relations with the US or about SALT.
The US embassy in Moscow comments that Brezhnev's remarks attacking
"some influential circles in the West" for their campaign of "disinformation and
slander" against the communist camp are among his most intemperate in the past
several years.
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 10, 1975
The British defense budget is coming under increasing fire as the Labor cabinet
debates the allocation of scarce government resources.
Until recently, defense officials had been confident that their budget would
emerge relatively unscathed from the government's overall reductions of public
spending. Within the past few days, however, there have been reports that
Chancellor of the Exchequer Healey is leading a strong drive within the cabinet to
distribute cuts across the board without regard to the substantial reductions imposed
on the military by Parliament earlier this year.
The cabinet split over defense is not along the usual right-left lines. Healey is
apparently supported by moderate as well as left-wing ministers whose departments
would have to absorb extra cuts if defense does not assume its "fair share."
Opposition to further significant reductions in defense spending is coming chiefly
from Foreign Secretary Callaghan and Defense Minister Mason. In addition to
arguing that new cuts would jeopardize Britain's contribution to NATO, Mason is
sure to support his case by pointing out that large cuts would have a negative impact
on British defense industries, and thus contribute to the already severe
unemployment.
The key element in the final decision will be Prime Minister Wilson, who
reportedly is still seeking to minimize reductions. Wilson's decision will be
influenced not only by the cabinet debate but also by public opinion, which may in
turn be affected by the generally negative attitude taken by the press toward further
reductions in defense spending. Sentiment in the House of Commons is also a factor,
as are the attitudes taken by Britain's NATO partners, particularly the US.
A knowledgeable British journalist told a US official last week that the cabinet
is considering annual reductions of $200 million to $400 million, beginning in 1977.
These cuts would be in addition to the $220 million already slashed from the 1976
budget. Ministry of Defense officials reportedly believe they can handle new cuts of
up to $300 million per, ear but larger cuts would necessitate elimination of
some weapons programs.1 `1
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National Intelligence Bulletin December 10, 1975
The Greek and Cypriot governments have responded negatively to recent
Turkish proposals to resume intercommunal talks but have kept the door open for
discussions at the NATO ministerial meetings this week in Brussels.
Greek Foreign Minister Bitsios, who had earlier offered to resume the Cyprus
talks even if there were no fixed agenda, criticized Turkish Foreign Minister
Caglayangil for releasing the Turkish proposals to the press before relaying them to
Athens. Bitsios seemed unenthusiastic about Ankara's proposal to broaden the talks
to include Greek and Turkish representatives and to change the format. The Turkish
proposal would apparently entail a change of venue from Vienna, where the talks
have been held under the auspices of UN Secretary General Waldheim, to Cyprus,
where they would be chaired by the UN special envoy to Cyprus with only
occasional involvement by Waldheim.
The Greeks clearly prefer not to become directly involved in talks they know
can result only in a settlement unfavorable to the Greek Cypriots. Athens also wants
to avoid overshadowing the Cypriot government, whose legitimacy and international
status Greece is trying to bolster.
The Makarios government has not reacted officially to Caglayangil's proposals
but on Monday the National Council, an unofficial all-party advisory group.
The Cyprus problem may be complicated further on Friday when the UN
Security Council begins deliberations on an extension of the mandate for the UN
peacekeeping force on Cyprus. Angry at the hostility they have met in the General
Assembly, the Turkish Cypriots threatened to oust the force from their zone and
have already sharply curtailed its humanitarian activities. At Ankara's request,
Turkish Cypriot leader Denktash has toned down his criticism of the force, but the
Turks will apparently insist that the UN make a separate agreement with the Turkish
Cypriot administration on the force's role in the Turkish Cypriot zone.
The Makarios government is opposed to a change in the wording of the force's
mandate and will also call on the Security Council to endorse the recent Assembly
resolution on Cyprus. Indications are, however, that both sides may show some
flexibility and thereby facilitate a compromise solution. F77777 I
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 Approved For Release
National Intelligence Bulletin
December 10, 1975
For the first time since 1969, Bangladesh has avoided the threat of famine in
the preharvest months of October and November.
High stocks at the beginning of 1975, good growing conditions, and continuing
massive flows of foreign aid all contributed to the favorable situation. Violence
associated with the coups and counter-coups since August has not damaged crops or
transportation facilities. Grain production for the year ending June 30, 1976, will
probably reach a record level of at least 12.2 million metric tons.
Nevertheless, import requirements remain at about 2 million tons to meet the
needs of the predominantly import-based official distribution system for urban and
government employees. Imports of about 1.5 million tons have already been
arranged for this year, including 400,000 tons of PL-480 Title I wheat and rice. As a
result of the favorable grain position, some donors are considering delaying
additional food aid shipments
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National Intelligence Bulletin
December 10, 1975
The provisional military government has lifted the state of emergency that was
declared in Addis Ababa on September 30. Dissident activity by students and
workers in the capital has been put down with mass arrests.
Eritrea Province remains generally quiet. Minor raids on government convoys
and positions by Eritrean insurgents continue, but there has been no heavy fighting
for months. In addition, the Ethiopian Democratic Union, which has considerable
peasant support in the provinces bordering Sudan, has reportedly attacked two
towns in western Begemdir Province, inflicting heavy losses on government forces.
Although the group failed to capture and hold either town, the casualties it inflicted
could increase confidence in its leadership and influence the civilian population to
rally behind anti-government forces.
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I RAN: The Iranian navy plans a two-month good-will cruise across the Indian
Ocean beginning on January 5, 1976. This will be the first extensive deployment of
an Iranian task group as far as Australian waters. The group, including a
guided-missile destroyer, a guided-missile destroyer escort, an unarmed supply ship,
and a coastal escort, will call at Sri Lanka, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia,
the Maldive Islands, and India. Iran plans to utilize US navy fleet-movement reports
and weather and logistic services to support the group. The cruise will be a major
undertaking for the Iranian navy and will underscore the Shah's announced
intention to extend his influence beyond the Persian Gulf.
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