NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028200010047-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 7, 2006
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: October 1, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 1, 1975
CONTENTS
PORTUGAL: Military occupation
of communications media ends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
TURKEY-GREECE: Turks and Greeks awaiting
US Congress' decision on arms embargo . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
ETHIOPIA: State of emergency declared . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
LEBANON: Murder of eight Druze
could trigger more fighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
SPAIN: Spain calm, but protests over
execution of five terrorists sweep Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
CAMBODIA: Resumption of diplomatic
activity in Phnom Penh imminent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
ARGENTINA: Campora's return
could rally leftists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 1, 1975
PORTUGAL
Portuguese Prime Minister Azevedo announced early this morning that military
occupation of radio and television stations in Lisbon will end today.
In a communique, Azevedo said his goal of curbing irresponsible broadcasting
has been achieved. The troops are scheduled to withdraw, but police will continue
to guard the stations.
Radio Renasenca, a church-owned station taken over by extreme leftists several
months ago, will continue under government control. Workers at the station
apparently refused to submit to the occupation and the station was taken off the
air yesterday by army commandos.
Azevedo made it clear that he will not hesitate to resort to similar "emergency
measures" to prevent any group from "consciously or unconsciously serving
counterrevolution." He intends to keep a close eye on the media and has ordered
all political groups to clear their communiques through the Information Ministry.
The government's control over the stations for the past two days has been
uncertain. Azevedo ran into difficulties because he could not depend on all his
security troops, some of whom sided with leftist radio workers. Another problem
was the half-hearted support of the head of the security forces, General Otelo de
Carvalho, who was apparently trying to play both sides of the issue. The true test
of Azevedo's move will be whether the stations follow his guidelines.
For now, the situation has cooled; the military alert has been relaxed despite
minor clashes last night between far-leftists and a group of Socialist and Popular
Democratic demonstrators. About 12,000 anti-Communist demonstrators marched
through the streets of Lisbon, shouting slogans supporting Azevedo and his efforts
to restore discipline in the armed forces. They were addressed by Azevedo at the
presidential palace, then headed for the national radio station.
The democratic parties showed once again that they can attract more popular
support to Azevedo than the extreme left has been able to muster against him.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 1, 1975
Turks and Greeks alike are waiting for the US Congress to decide whether to
lift the US arms embargo on Turkey; the outcome is bound to disappoint one side or
the other.
If the embargo is sustained, the Turks will probably request an immediate
reduction in US military personnel in Turkey and tighten restrictions on remaining
US personnel; they might evict the US altogether from those installations where
operations have already been suspended.
Initially, Turkey will probably maintain its ties, but if NATO fails to support
Turkey militarily and politically in the longer term, the Turks may begin to
withdraw gradually from the NATO military structure and to intensify their search
for weapons from non-NATO countries.
In Turkey, retention of the embargo would become a liability for Prime
Minister Demirel in the election campaign now under way. Continuation of the
embargo could lead to a deepening of anti-American sentiment, which in the past
has led to serious civil disturbances.
A partial lifting of the embargo will probably be sufficient to avoid further
disturbances of US operations in Turkey. Ankara, however, will insist on
renegotiating a new defense agreement with the US.
The bargaining will be tough, given the frustration and ill-feeling that have
accumulated in Turkey since the embargo was imposed last February. Ankara may
well insist on greater Turkish control over joint military activities, on some form of
payment for the use of facilities in Turkey, and on linking continued US use of bases
in Turkey with assured Turkish access to US arms supplies.
If the embargo is eased, violent -anti-American demonstrations are likely in
Greece and on Cyprus.
In Athens, Greek officials have sought to prepare the public for an easing of the
embargo. Several newspapers recently called the embargo an internal US matter and
said its lifting should not be construed as a Greek defeat. This will not prevent
Greeks, stimulated by leftists, from taking to the streets. Greek police doubtless will
be under strict orders to protect US facilities.
On Cyprus, passions are at a far higher pitch. If the embargo is eased, the Greek
Cypriot reaction will be strong, and the Makarios government's capability and
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 1, 1975
determination to prevent violence are far from certain. Greek Cypriot officials
reportedly are urging moderation, but demonstrations in Nicosia could easily and
swiftly turn violent US facilities would doubtless be a target.
ETHIOPIA
The ruling military council yesterday declared a state of emergency in Addis
Ababa in an attempt to halt spreading strikes.
The emergency proclamation is the most sweeping security measure taken by
the council. It threatens the arrest of all strikers who do not return to work and
gives security forces the right to detain individuals for an unlimited period without
being charged.
The work stoppages began Tuesday morning, following a week of increasing
labor unrest. Factories, banks, insurance companies, and petroleum distribution
firms are among the businesses affected. The walkouts may be the beginning of a
general strike instigated by labor leaders as part of an organized protest against the
military rulers.
Workers and teachers have become bolder in their criticism of the council.
They have called for a prompt return to civilian rule and a restoration of democratic
liberties, as well as redress of specific grievances. On September 25, at least seven
workers were killed and 19 wounded at the Addis Ababa airport in a clash with
security forces who were attempting to arrest airline employees for distributing
anti-regime pamphlets.
A long strike could pose serious problems for Addis Ababa, which already faces
shortages of fuel and food staples. The council's stern measures may coerce the
strikers to resume work before the shortages become critical, but at the price of
further eroding the government's support among influential segments of the
population.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 1, 1975
More fighting in Beirut could follow yesterday's attack on a bus traveling
through a Christian suburb; eight Druze passengers were killed. The Druze sect has in
the past tended to side with the Shia Muslims. The attack may have been in
retaliation for an incident in the same area in which a Christian was killed several
hours earlier.
Other parts of the capital were reported to be relatively quiet. Most stores and
banks were open yesterday, and most newspapers were on the streets for the first
time since the latest round of fighting began.
Outside Beirut, Lebanese security authorities reported that some shooting was
still occurring in the Zagharta area near Tripoli, but were hopeful that the army
would be able to bring the violence there under control. Zahlah and the Bekaa
Valley were reported quiet.
The US ambassador believes the Lebanese do not yet realize the magnitude of
the physical and economic damage to property inflicted so far during the
Christian-Muslim fighting. The middle class, made up of the shopkeepers and other
self-employed businessmen, has been particularly hard hit. About a fourth of this
group is on the verge of destitution. The embassy estimates that more than 500
Lebanese have died in the latest round of fighting.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 1, 1975
Protests over the execution of five Spanish terrorists continue to sweep across
Europe, but Spain itself remains calm.
The executions have loosed deeply felt, pent-up emotions among those West
Europeans who see the Franco regime as the last remnant of fascism on the
continent. East and West Europeans alike have voiced outrage through official
statements, withdrawal of ambassadors, mass demonstrations, and some violence.
The governments of Western Europe are trying to limit the damage to their
long-term relations with Spain, but moves to establish closer relations with the
Franco regime are precluded for now. One of the first casualties will be the
negotiations, scheduled to begin this month, to establish closer economic ties
between Spain and the EC.
French President Giscard has come under sharp criticism for his government's
allegedly weak efforts on behalf of the Spanish terrorists. The French Communist
Party, seizing the opportunity to pose as a defender of liberty after a long
embarrassment over Portugal, has been extremely vitriolic and will do what it can to
keep the issue alive for as long as possible. The Socialists have also protested
vociferously, and even the center and right have been critical, although less inclined
to blame Giscard personally.
In the UK, leading government spokesmen have defended London's effort to
obtain clemency for the five terrorists. Union leader Jack Jones has called for a labor
boycott of Spanish ships, aircraft, and trucks.
Anti-Spanish sentiment has also surfaced at the UN. Mexican President
Echeverria has asked the Security Council to consider suspending Spanish
membership. The Council has yet to act on the Mexican request, and the issue of
how to handle terrorists may strike too close to home for many governments.
The US mission at the UN notes that many Arab states are not inclined to go
along with Echeverria because they feel the Europeans have given them little support
on such issues as South Africa and Israel. The Soviets, Chinese, and the nonaligned
also have shown some discomfort.
The Spanish government is standing firm in the face of this widespread
criticism. In a nationwide speech last night, Prime Minister Arias defended the
crackdown on terrorism and attacked Western nations for "hypocritical and
intolerable" interference in Spanish affairs. He appealed to Spaniards to remain cool.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 1, 1975
The government plans to stage rallies today in Madrid and in provincial capitals
in an effort to capitalize on the reaction to this criticism. The government, wishing
to show it is undeterred, is preparing to try 15 more Basques, including the guerrilla
leader accused of the assassination in 1973 of Premier Carrero Blanco.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 1, 1975
Cambodia is moving closer to allowing the resumptionof diplomatic activity in
Phnom Penh.
Diplomatic sources in Peking claim Cambodia will permit ten countries to open
embassies in Phnom Penh by the end of the year. In addition to the People's
Republic of China and North Vietnam-which already have envoys stationed in
Phnom Penh-others include Yugoslavia, Egypt, North Korea, Algeria, Albania,
Romania, Mauritania, and Laos.
The Cambodian embassy in Peking has begun to acknowledge earlier
recognition of the new Phnom Penh regime by several non-communist countries.
Letters have been sent thanking the governments of Burma, Australia, New Zealand,
and Japan. France, anxious to re-establish its presence, is awaiting a formal reply
from Phnom Penh. Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister for Foreign Affairs leng Sary's
statement that Paris could play an important role in Cambodia suggests Phnom
Penh's forthcoming approval. Mexico recently announced the establishment of
diplomatic relations with Cambodia, and there may be progress toward opening
diplomatic relations with neighboring Thailand following ministerial talks in
Bangkok later this month. It will probably be some time, however, before
ambassadors from these countries arrive in Phnom Penh.
These initiatives are in line with Sary's recent statement in Paris that Cambodia
cannot isolate itself from Southeast Asia or from the international community of
nations. An address by Prince Sihanouk to the UN General Assembly scheduled for
October 6 will probably be designed to promote further Phnom Penh's position and
to consolidate international support.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 1, 1975
Hector Campora's recent return to Argentina may serve to rally disenchanted
leftists and could culminate in a leftist bid for power in the general election in 1977.
In March 1973, Campora was elected as a stand-in president for Juan Peron. His
resignation six weeks later brought Peron to power. Campora has been in
self-imposed exile in Mexico since last December because of threats on his life by
right-wing terrorist elements.
Campora's brief administration tended to favor the left-wing of Peronism, and
the Authentic Peronist Party-the alleged legal party front for the leftist
Montoneros-reportedly has been trying for some time to persuade him to be its
leader. Leftists may see him as a unifying force that could bring them back into the
government, but he is not considered a strong leader and would be susceptible to
manipulation if in power.
Campora's return adds a new and somewhat unpredictable element to
Argentine politics. Although his presence could further divide the already fractured
ranks of the Peronist Movement, he cannot be ruled out as a leftist coalition
candidate in the presidential election in 1977.
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