NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028200010031-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: October 9, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Top Secret
National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
Copy N?_ 669
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 Approved For Release
National Intelligence Bulletin
October 9, 1975
CONTENTS
PORTUGAL: Communists continue
to undermine Azevedo government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
SPAIN-MOROCCO: Madrid may be sending
reinforcements to Spanish Sahara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
LEBANON: Another
cease-fire reported . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
ARGENTINA: Political lull to
end with Peron's return . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
LAOS: French military
mission to be withdrawn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 9, 1975
The Portuguese Communist Party yesterday called for a conference between
government leaders and parties of the left in what it described as an effort to prevent
the current wave of political unrest in the military from turning into civil war. At
the same time it threw its weight behind the spread of military mutinies and civil
disturbances.
The Communists placed the blame for the current turmoil on the
Socialist-dominated government's efforts to purge pro-Communists and other leftists
from the military, the media, and other positions of influence. The Communists plan
to use the proposed conference to press for an end to the purges. The party said the
current political deterioration could be reversed only by reinforcing "revolutionary"
forces both in the government and in the ruling Revolutionary Council.
The Communists may be on the point of dropping all pretense of support for
the government. A party statement issued yesterday praised the political agitation in
army units as "a magnificent riposte" to the attempts by "reactionaries" to swing
the country to the right. The party's call for removing "reactionaries" from
command positions shows that it has no intention of backing Azevedo's efforts to
restore military discipline.
A well-placed source close to the Prime Minister has told US embassy officials
that President Costa Gomes' habitual indecision and lack of full support are further
crippling Azevedo's efforts. According to this source, Costa Gomes reportedly is
now advising Azevedo to "broaden" the government, a course urged upon the
President by Brezhnev and Podgorny during Costa Gomes' recent visit to Moscow.
The source claims that Azevedo told him privately that he would resign in "a week
or so" if he is unable to resolve the problem of military discipline.
Extreme leftist soldiers yesterday remained in control of a heavy artillery
regiment outside the northern city of Porto. A military spokesman said that further
efforts would be made to resolve the problem through negotiation, but it seems
likely that force will be required if the mutiny is to be put down.
Last night about 50 people were injured when left-wing civilian supporters of
the rebellious regiment fired pistols and threw rocks at thousands of Popular
Democrats marching in support of the government. This is the first incident in the
recent wave of unrest that has resulted in such a large number of casualties.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 9, 1975
Spain now may be taking more seriously the reports of a possible Moroccan
incursion into Spanish Sahara.
According to the US defense attache in Madrid, Spain may be in the process of
reinforcing its troops in Spanish Sahara and the Canary Islands. The airfield at
Lanzarote, in the Canary Islands, was closed to civilian traffic yesterday, reportedly
because of troop movements. The attache believes this may indicate that the
800-man infantry battalion stationed at Lanzarote has been transferred to Spanish
Sahara. This battalion normally is maintained on standby as a reinforcement unit for
Spanish Sahara.
The attache also is attempting to confirm the reported move of an additional
parachute battalion to the Canary Islands.
Thus far, the Spanish military have been skeptical of reports about a possible
Moroccan attack. Precautionary defensive measures had been taken with troops
already in the Canaries and Spanish Sahara, but until now there had been no reports
of a meaningful reinforcement of ground troops from the Spanish mainland.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 9, 1975
Lebanese authorities say all sides have agreed to yet another cease-fire,
following the heavy fighting that broke out Tuesday night in the southern and
eastern suburbs of Beirut.
This is the sixth cease-fire announced since the fighting spread to Beirut three
weeks ago, but the security forces are still making little headway in separating the
Muslim and Christian militiamen. Heavy fighting also broke out again in the
Tripoli-Zagharta area, where the army has been trying to maintain a buffer zone
between the opposing forces. Ten army commandos were killed in that fighting.
Fighting was continuing in Beirut late last night, despite the cease-fire.
The latest outbreak has increased the possibility that the less radical fedayeen
organizations-Fatah and Saiga--will cease cooperating with the security forces in
the effort to control the fighting. Lebanese security officials report that over the
past few days they have detected a change in attitude on the part of Saiqa and Fatah
officials, who now are arguing that they cannot control the actions of the Lebanese
and the "rejectionist" fedayeen groups.
Prime Minister Karami will confer with Syrian President Asad in Damascus this
morning. Karami will almost certainly ask Asad to try again to mediate. Syrian
Foreign Minister Khaddam, who returned to Damascus in late September after an
abortive effort to halt the fighting, will probably be asked to return to Beirut.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 9, 1975
The relative political lull during President Maria Estela Peron's absence from
the capital is giving way to growing controversy centering on her prospective return,
scheduled for next week. While Peron herself has lost effective power and is unlikely
to gain it back, the question of who will assume it is far from resolved.
Presidential spokesmen have said that Peron is well and plans to return to
Buenos Aires on October 17 to address a mass rally marking Juan Peron's rise to
power. A move may be under way, however, to persuade her to remain out of the
picture, or at most accept a passive role. Some observers fear the possibility of
violence if dissident Peronists-including the terrorist Montoneros-seek to disrupt
the rally.
The eventual disposition of effective power will, of course, affect most directly
the current governing team, led by Acting President Luder, Interior Minister
Robledo, and Economy Minister Cafiero. They have managed to restore a measure
of confidence in the government. All three realize that unless there is a satisfactory
solution to the political problem of Peron's status, their ability to continue
functioning will diminish steadily.
In addition, all three are potential contenders in the presidential election
scheduled for 1977. For this reason, each has his own preferred solution to the
problem. Luder, who is chief among those who favor Peron's continued absence,
hopes to continue exercising presidential authority and build a case for his eventual
election to a full term. Robledo, on the other hand, is said to favor restoring Peron
to the presidency, at least as a figurehead, which would remove Luder from the
scene. Cafiero, who has deftly avoided being identified with either side, would
nonetheless benefit from Luder's departure; he would have one less person to
contend with.
The military, whose unity and behind-the-scenes influence on politics have
increased greatly in recent months, are eyeing the situation with concern. The high
command is anxious to prolong the relative effectiveness of the Luder
team-particularly its efforts to centralize the anti-terrorist struggle-and is dismayed
by the resurging debate over Peron's role. Most officers probably favor her
continued absence but would accept her return in a ceremonial role. They still favor
a constitutional solution but are more likely than before to intervene openly, should
political struggles once again paralyze the government.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 9, 1975
The French on October 7 announced that their 60-man military mission will be
withdrawn from Laos by the end of this year. The mission was established following
the Geneva Accords of 1954 to provide training for the Lao army.
According to the French commander in Vientiane, Paris decided to withdraw
the mission because training activities had come to a virtual halt following the
collapse of the Lao coalition last May, During the summer, the communists closed
Lao army training sites and assigned the disarmed enlisted ranks to manual labor.
Officers were sent to the hinterlands for lengthy reindoctrination sessions. The
French have denied press reports that the Lao are negotiating a new military
assistance agreement with Paris, claiming that the Pathet Lao have shown no interest
in French instruction.
The Lao communists clearly wish to eliminate all Western influence in
Vientiane, and the French may have decided to bow out now rather than be forced
out later. French military advisers were forced to evacuate Pakse in southern Laos
hurriedly last July, following communist-inspired demonstrations.
The French are unhappy with Lao moves against French business interests.
Officials in Paris say they still intend to continue their cultural, economic, and
education programs in Vientiane for at least the next year. They seem to realize,
however, that the Lao communists, who do not share the rightists' regard for French
culture, might at any time force a further reduction in their presence.
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