NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028200010017-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 6, 2006
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: October 30, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
Top Secret
State Dept. review
completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 30, 1975
CONTENTS
SPANISH SAHARA: Independence
group could attack marchers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
25Xt
SYRIA-ISRAEL: Israeli troops
intercept fedayeen in Golan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
YUGOSLAVIA-USSR: Anti-Soviet
campaign . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
ANGOLA: Popular Movement
abandons port city . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
FTAI: France to
grant independence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
PHILIPPINES: Marcos partially
retreating from purge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
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KOREA: Votes on
UN resolutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 30, 1975
A country-wide dusk-to-dawn curfew has been imposed by Spanish officials,
who fear terrorist attacks against civilians in Spanish Sahara.
In addition, members of the Algerian-sponsored independence group, Polisario,
are said to be threatening to attack Moroccan marchers if they enter Spanish Sahara.
The military governor of southern Morocco has warned that the Moroccan army
would intervene if this happened. The Polisario is not under firm Algerian control
and is reportedly split into several factions. An Algerian Foreign Ministry official
reportedly stated, nonetheless, that if Moroccan forces pursued Polisario elements
across the Algerian border, Algeria "would intervene to protect her borders."
Meanwhile, Moroccan marchers continue to gather in southern Morocco where
they will await the outcome of political negotiations in Madrid. An AI erian
delegation has gone to Madrid to present Algerian views to Spanish officials.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 30, 1975
Israeli army units intercepted fedayeen forces infiltrating from Syria on
October 28, the first such incident on the Golan Heights since the signing of the
Syrian-Israeli disengagement in May 1974.
The guerrilla unit reportedly penetrated to within three miles of the
headquarters of an armored division near Kafr Naffakh. Five infiltrators were
captured and two were killed; there were no Israeli casualties. Interrogation of the
prisoners revealed that they were recruited from Fatah terrorist groups and trained
in Syria. The raid's objective probably was to destroy installations or inflict
casualties rather than to seize hostages.
The captured terrorists told their interrogators that the mission was planned
and supported by Syria. The operation may be the opening of a Syrian-directed
terrorist campaign on the Golan.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 30, 1975
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Belgrade is building up its strongest anti-Soviet "vigilance" campaign in at least
four years. A source of the US embassy reports that 123 alleged "cominformists"
are now in Yugoslav jails awaiting trial.
Denunciations of "cominformists" are pouring in from every corner of the
country. Top party and government officials have made specific references to the
desires of the "cominformists" to attach Yugoslavia to the Soviet "camp." Many of
these references have been broadcast to the USSR.
The hue and cry against the "cominformists" owes some of its virulence to
Belgrade's awareness that the faltering economy could create an atmosphere in
which a small but highly organized group like the "cominformists" could begin to
undermine the system. Wary that such groups are gathering themselves to launch a
drive for power once President Tito departs, the regime appears determined to
imprison all the potential Stalinist leaders it can find. Yugoslav media now are
promising that some sentences will be announced soon.
Behind this campaign lies a deep-seated fear that Moscow's benevolence toward
Belgrade over the past few years only masks a plan to restore Yugoslavia to the
Soviet orbit after Tito has gone. Owing to this feeling, the current easing of the
regime's strictures against anti-Soviet propaganda is apparently getting a very
enthusiastic response.
While relations between the two countries are somewhat clouded by the pace
of events in Yugoslavia, another full breach is not expected. So long as Belgrade
restrains itself from explicit attacks on the current Soviet leadership and Moscow
holds its anger in check, the two countries are likely to maintain some sort of uneasy
but proper relations.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 30, 1975
The Soviet-supported Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola has
abandoned the port city of Mocamedes, Angola's third largest port. The city was
then occupied by troops of the National Front for the Liberation of Angola and the
National Union for the Total Independence of Angola.
The Popular Movement's decision to withdraw from the port rather than resist
advancing rival forces gives weight to recent speculation by some observers in Angola
that the Popular Movement was overextending itself.
The forces may have been withdrawn in order to bolster Popular Movement
defenses at Benguela and Lobito, the hub of Angola's rail and port facilities. A
combined National Front - National Union force is reported to be advancing on this
port and rail complex. Unconfirmed reports reaching Luanda say the Popular
Movement has already been forced to withdraw from Benguela.
The occupation of Mocamedes gives the National Front and the National Union
their first major resupply point in southern Angola.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 30, 1975
France has decided to grant independence to its east African Territory of Afars
and Issas (FTAI), but it will be contingent on an affirmative vote by the territory on
an independence referendum and the working out of procedures to preserve stability
in the region. the president of the Territorial
Government, All Are t, will present his proposal for the referendum to the Djibouti
Territorial Assembly on November 17.
For the French, the main obstacles to independence appear to be achieving a
proper formula for guaranteeing stability in the area and ensuring continued French
access to facilities in Djibouti. President Giscard will face considerable opposition to
independence from his defense minister and conservatives in the French Parliament,
but hopes to improve France's position with African and Third World countries that
have accused France of colonialism and imperialism in Africa.
The rivalry between Ethiopia and Somalia for control of the FTAI is an
important hindrance to stability in the area. Djibouti is one of the principal ports
serving Ethiopia and is the terminus of its railroad. Access to Djibouti has increased
in importance to Addis Ababa because of its continuing problems in Eritrea, where
Ethiopia's only other two outlets to the sea are located. The Somali Republic's
interest in FTAI stems from its proclaimed national objective of incorporating all
ethnic Somalis-who make up approximately 50 percent of FTAI's
population-within its borders.
In a related move FTAI President Ali Aref recently visited Ethiopia where he
conducted extensive meetings with Ethiopian and Organization of African Unity
officials. The Ethiopian press gave the visit extensive coverage, centering on
Ethiopia's support for FTAI independence. The Somalis harshly condemned the
visit.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
October 30, 1975
Political pressure has forced President Marcos to retreat somewhat from his
planned purge of dishonest government employees.
Confusion surrounding the removal last month of some 2,000 civilians and
rumors of new investigations have caused near paralysis in the government. Bowing
to heavy pressure, Marcos has established a three-man panel to review the dismissals.
A scheduled purge of local officials will presumably be limited in scope.
The military apparently has also convinced Marcos that severe disruptions
would occur should he implement a widespread purge of the military. He has now
decided to let the Philippine armed forces clean their own house, apparently largely
through retirements. A number of senior officers are well beyond mandatory
retirement age. As many as 12 generals probably will be among the officers retired.
It is doubtful, however, that some of the most corrupt officers will be released.
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National Intelligence Bulletin October 30, 1975
The U N General Assembly's Political Committee late last night passed both of
the conflicting resolutions on Korea. The stage is set for hard bargaining on a
compromise or some parliamentary device to get around the impasse when the
assembly's plenary session considers the Korean issue early next month.
The pro-Seoul resolution-emphasizing the need to maintain the Korean
Armistice Agreement and Seoul's right to participate in future security
arrangements-passed by a vote of 59 to 51, with 29 abstentions. The
pro-Pyongyang draft-featuring a call for unconditional dissolution of the UN
Command and withdrawal of all "foreign" forces-passed 51 to 38, with 50
abstentions.
The North Koreans, not unexpectedly, proclaimed a major victory. The vote
reflected their growing diplomatic support in Southeast Asia and among the
nonaligned countries. Australia, the Philippines, Turkey, and Greece were among the
countries that shifted from nay votes on the pro-Pyongyang draft last year to
abstentions last night.
There will be strong pressures at the plenary for a compromise. The North
Koreans, having for the first time won a UN endorsement of their views-however
ambiguous the endorsement may be-will strongly resist abandoning their major
positions. The only viable formula may be one that leaves the major Korean security
issues unsettled for yet another year.
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