NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028100010037-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 2, 2006
• Sequence Number: 37
• Publication Date: September 23, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
Ton Secret
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State Dept. review completed
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
September 23, 1975
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 23, 1975
CONTENTS
LEBANON: Efforts to
reach a settlement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
PANAMA-US: Confidential negotiating
positions released . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
PORTUGAL: No honeymoon
period for new government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
ANGOLA: National Front
retakes Caxito . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
USSR-JAPAN: Sino-Japanese
treaty focus of Moscow's opposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
EC: Complaints against US
trade policy surface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
FRANCE: Defense budget for
next year announced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING: Port
congestion increasing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 23, 1975
Fighting continued yesterday in Beirut and picked up again in the northern
port city of Tripoli. Ambassador Godley reports from Beirut that the current strife
already has drastically weakened Lebanon's political system and that each day of
fighting destroys a bit more of the country's economic prosperity and political
strength.
Last night, the right-wing Phalanges Party as well as left-wing groups and Arab
nationalists agreed again to abide by a cease-fire concluded Saturday night. The
Phalangists may be willing to observe the cease-fire this time, because they are
reportedly low on ammunition.
Syrian Foreign Minister Khaddam yesterday continued his efforts to mediate.
The stated conditions of both the right and the left to observe the cease-fire
have varied widely. The Phalangists were reported to be demanding a cease-fire with
no political conditions. The leftists, including Progressive Socialist Party leader
Kamal Jumblatt, were insisting that all parties agree to discuss a left-sponsored
reform program that included amendment of the constitution and the national
covenant. The Muslim community, including Prime Minister Karami, reportedly
opposes the harsh position of the leftists, which is totally unacceptable to the
Phalangists and the other Christians. A compromise was reportedly under
consideration whereby all parties would agree only to discuss reforms. This would
not imply a radical attack on the structure of the government.
The moderate fedayeen organizations continue to desire a formula that would
end the fighting and reduce the pressure for their involvement. A Fatah official told
an embassy source yesterday that Phalangist attacks on Palestinians had escalated
over the previous few days. The Fatah official said that, if this continued, PLO
leader Yasir Arafat would find it difficult to restrain the main Palestinian forces.
The US embassy in Beirut believes that nearly all the forces, except for the
Communists and the fedayeen "rejectionists," would like to see an end to the
fighting, but each on its own terms. The current cease-fire does not provide for the
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 23, 1975
removal of barricades and armed men from the streets of the capital. Noting that
without such a clause the entire arrangement is at the mercy of the least disciplined
elements, the embassy doubts that the cease-fire as presently envisaged can be
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 23, 1975
Panama's release this past weekend of the confidential US and Panamanian
negotiating positions was prompted primarily by domestic political considerations
and was not designed to torpedo the treaty talks.
The Foreign Ministry's outline of the points of agreement and disagreement
sought to demonstrate that the government was maintaining the initiative in the
negotiations and continuing to reject US proposals which might infringe on
Panama's future sovereignty. It also complied with Chief of Government Torrijos'
pledge to conduct open negotiations.
Despite the considerable optimism prevailing prior to the latest negotiating
round, the session ended last week with Panama noting that "very little progress"
was achieved. Furthermore, recent statements by US officials have been interpreted
in Panama as indicating a hardened US position. In light of this, the government felt
its communique would deflect any possible criticism.
The ministry's release significantly ended by noting that the US positions "are
all negotiable, according to US Ambassador Bunker. Panamanian media focused,
generally positively, on the government's approach to the negotiations rather than
on alternate courses of action. Thus, although the government's basic commitment
to the talks is not in doubt, its public contrast of major differences-for example,
the US proposal to retain 85 percent of Zone territory, versus Panama's offer of 10
percent-will make it increasingly difficult for the Panamanian side to compromise.
It also shows that Panama is banking on significant concessions from the US.
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September 23, 1975
The new government can expect no honeymoon period, especially from the
Communists, who are already demonstrating that they will not easily give up the
gains they have made.
The Communist Party is challenging the new government so that there will be
no backsliding on the agrarian reform and industrial nationalization programs; the
party is also attempting to block efforts to change local governments where
Communists are in control. They will obviously work hard to hang on in the media,
labor, and the government bureaucracy.
The Communists get strong support from peasant farm workers in the south,
where agrarian reform efforts were concentrated under former prime minister
Goncalves. In a speech on Sunday at a cooperative farm south of Lisbon,
Communist leader Cunhal warned that "reactionary" forces in the new
government-i.e., the Popular Democrats-will seek to undermine the process of land
reform.
Cunhal assured the crowd that the Communists will use their role in the
government to protect revolutionary gains. The party has pushed hard for and
appears likely to receive a subcabinet position in the Ministry of Agriculture. The
post would give it a voice in government decisions on agricultural matters. A rally is
scheduled for Saturday to demonstrate Communist solidarity with southern farm
workers.
In Porto, the civil governor's effort to dismiss the municipal council was
rejected by leftist and Communist demonstrators, who clashed with police last
Friday. Nevertheless, the governor has not backed down. He has expressed
confidence that the new government in Lisbon will reconstitute local governing
bodies so as to reflect the will of the people.
The Communist-dominated Portuguese Democratic Movement, meanwhile, is
trying to foment unrest among industrial workers. The group intends to discourage
any attempt by the new government to back down on the nationalization of
industry by the Goncalves regime. Some 60 percent of Portuguese industry is
affected by the nationalization.
The Democratic Movement has announced its opposition to the Azevedo
government and has promised a "period of social agitation." The movement is
supporting a one-hour strike called by the Communist-dominated steelworkers for
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Wednesday. The Communist Party is probably also behind demonstrations by
extreme leftist groups. The party has been strongly criticized by the extreme left for
joining the Socialist-dominated government.
The Communists could cooperate with those splinter groups whose actions fit
in with the party's strategy of encouraging disruptions while maintaining a facade of
support for the government. One such effort may be a demonstration to be held on
Thursday by an extremist group in the military-"Soldiers United Shall Win"-to
demand increased wages and other benefits for the military.
The new government could prove vulnerable to attack by radicals who accuse it
of being "reactionary." Some military officers do not want to risk their
"revolutionary" credentials by supporting the government. Security chief Carvalho,
for instance, has announced that he intends to keep his distance from the new
government and to "enter decidedly into the opposition" if the government shows
any sign of a turn to the right.
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Cassinga
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SOU H-WEST AFRICA
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 23, 1975
The National Front for the Liberation of Angola retook Caxito and the nearby
town of Barra do Dande last weekend, according to an official announcement by
Portuguese military authorities in Luanda. The National Front suffered a major
setback two weeks ago when it was driven from the towns by the Popular Movement
for the Liberation of Angola.
The recapture of the towns, which again places the Front in a strong position
some 40 miles northeast of Luanda, will help revive the Front's flagging military
fortunes. Front leader Holden Roberto will use the victory to reinforce his claim
that the Front is a military and political force to be taken seriously and that it must
have a meaningful role in a coalition government when Angola receives
independence on November 11.
It is clear, however, that to gain credibility the Front will have to put
considerably more pressure on the Popular Movement than it has in the past few
weeks. The Popular Movement still dominates the capital, Luanda, the most
important southern coastal centers-including Angola's main port of Lobito-and the
Cabinda exclave.
The Movement-controlled press in Luanda will play down the significance of
the Front's military gains. The Movement has been trying to present itself as the
only liberation group capable of assuming control of an independent government.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
September 23, 1975
The Soviets have increased their protests against a Sino-Japanese peace treaty,
in the wake of announcements that Japan's Foreign Minister Miyazawa will meet
with Chinese Foreign Minister Chiao Kuan-hua at the UN this week. The two men
are expected to discuss the resumption of negotiations on the treaty, which have
been stalled since June.
Earlier this month there were several press items registering Moscow's
opposition to a Sino-Japanese treaty that contained an anti-hegemony clause. A
Pravda article on September 10 warned the Japanese that there would be "severe
consequences" for Soviet-Japanese relations if Japan signed such a treaty. On
September 17, the Soviet ambassador in Tokyo called on Miyazawa and suggested
that realization of a visit by Foreign Minister Gromyko to Japan, tentatively
scheduled for the end of this year, depended on how Tokyo handled the
anti-hegemony clause.
Gromyko's visit was in doubt even before it became known that Sino-Japanese
negotiations on the treaty were about to resume. By implying that the visit is linked
to the treaty issue, the Soviets probably hope to give some substance to their threat
of "severe consequences" ensuing from Japan's agreement to the anti-hegemony
clause.
Moscow probably has not dismissed the possibility that its objections could, as
they did last spring, help stall the Sino-Japanese negotiations, but the Soviets have
long since become resigned to an eventual treaty containing the offending clause.
The Soviets also seem to be trying to impress on the Japanese that if they accept this
clause they will ultimately have to make some compensatory gesture toward the
USSR.
What Moscow would like most would be for Japan to agree to negotiate the
treaty of friendship and cooperation that Gromyko first proposed when Miyazawa
was in Moscow last January. Such a treaty would skirt the seemingly irreconcilable
Soviet-Japanese differences over the Northern Territories and would, in the Soviet
view, politically nullify the anti-Soviet aspects of the pending Sino-Japanese accord.
Tokyo has consistently rejected any treaty with Moscow without a resolution of the
territorial problem, however, and is unlikely to accept any Soviet suggestion that
Japan's agreement to the hegemony clauses requires some compensatory gesture
toward the USSR.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
The EC Nine are apparently preparing to present their complaints in the next
few days about alleged US trade protectionism to international forums.
In recent weeks EC officials have made increasingly strong complaints over
investigations launched by the US to determine whether foreign motor vehicles are
being dumped on the US market-sold at prices below their fair market value-and
over US allegations that some EC exports are being subsidized. The EC Commission
yesterday called publicly for the US to curb "the forces of protectionism" following
the US announcement of a decision to consider charges-made by a US steel
firm-that EC steel exports are subsidized.
A West German official told the US mission to the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development that Bonn will raise the motor vehicle dumping issue
with the organization's trade committee when it meets today and tomorrow in Paris.
The trade committee is charged with monitoring the OECD pledge, signed by the US
and most other members, to refrain from imposing new restrictive measures on
trade.
In addition, the EC will reportedly ask the Council of the General Agreement
on Tariffs and Trade in Geneva at its meeting on September 25 to look into the US
motor vehicle investigation, and may ask that a special session of the GATT
anti-dumping committee be called. The Nine have maintained that the US
investigation of alleged motor vehicle dumping violates GATT rules, because the
original complaint was filed not by US manufacturers but by a labor union and a US
September 23, 1975
Congressman.
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National Intelligence Bulletin September 23, 1975
Defense spending for 1976 will increase, but there will be cutbacks in some
equipment projects because of larger pay and other personnel benefits, according to
statements by Defense Minister Bourges and armaments boss Delpech. The 1976
defense budget will total approximately $11.1 billion, an increase of 14.2 percent
over last year.
Two projects, the Super Etendard and the Atlantique II aircraft will be
extended. The Super Etendard is a carrier-based attack plane capable of delivering
nuclear weapons, and the Atlantique 11 is an advanced version of France's current
maritime patrol aircraft. Delays in the development of the next-generation Mirage
aircraft, the so-called combat aircraft of the future, were reported earlier. There have
been other indications that the attack submarine and helicopter carrier
programs-both nuclear propelled-would also be delayed, but Delpech said the keel
for the first attack submarine would be laid next year.
The joint French-Belgian-Dutch minesweeper, on which construction will begin
next year, seems to have survived the cuts. In addition, procurement of Alpha-jet
and Jaguar aircraft will continue. The number of Jaguars ordered. however, has been
cut back. There was no mention of an army reorganization, which is rumored to
include cuts in French forces in West Germany.
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INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING
Congestion in ports of less developed countries has increased dramatically and
could cost shipowners more than $5 billion in 1975.
The congestion is concentrated in West African and Middle East dry cargo
ports, where ships now must wait an average of two months before unloading;
available figures indicate that the average was just over two days at these ports as
recently as four years ago.
The worst example is Lagos, Nigeria, where 354 ships are awaiting berths; 193
other vessels loaded with cement have waited for as long as a year to a year and a
half to discharge their cargo. These delays are caused both by a massive increase in
imports since oil prices were increased last year and by a lack of port facilities and
cargo-handling equipment.
In addition to Lagos, the situation is most critical in Luanda (35 days) and
Lobito, Angola (130 days); in Alexandria, Egypt (50 days); and in ports in Iraq,
Syria, and Iran, where there have been delays of up to 140 days.
Soviet arms shipments to Angola, Iraq, Libya, Tanzania, and Syria are not
affected by the congestion because they apparently receive priority berthing upon
arrival at most ports.
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September 23, 1975
MEXICO: Treasury Secretary Jose Lopez Portillo has been selected as the
ruling party's candidate to succeed President Echeverria for a six-year term
beginning in 1976. Nomination by the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party is
tantamount to election. Lopez Portillo had been in the early running for the
nomination but appeared to drop from consideration several months ago, with
speculation then centering on Secretary of Government Moya and Secretary of the
Presidency Cervantes. Lopez Portillo's selection by President Echeverria appears to
represent a compromise. Long an associate of Echeverria, Lopez Portillo can be
expected to continue the present administration's emphasis on the social aspects of
economic development and to be friendly toward the US.
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