NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A028000010021-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 10, 2005
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: August 7, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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National 1 ntel l igence
Bulletin
DIA review(s) completed.
Top Secret
N? 669
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 7, 1975
CONTENTS
PORTUGAL: Leadership moves to
quell anti-Communist violence 1
CHINA: Industrial
production gains 5
BRAZIL: President's speech reflects
more conservative tone 10
ISRAEL: Army expects to acquire
Milan antitank missile system 11
FOR THE RECORD 13
ANNEX: North Vietnam:
Armed Forces Since Victory
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 7, 1975
The Portuguese military leadership has turned its attention to quelling
anti-Communist violence in the north.
The government has reportedly assigned 140 marines to the northern military
region to augment troops there, some of whom have openly supported the
anti-Communist demonstrators. The marines are considered to be one of the most
radical units in the internal security forces. It is unlikely that an additional 140
troops can curtail the attacks against the Communists unless they are ordered to fire
into the crowds.
Tensions will remain high throughout the north. More demonstrations are
scheduled in the next few days. The Communists are planning a rally in Oporto to
support Goncalves and protest the actions against them; the Catholic Church has
scheduled rallies this weekend in two other northern towns.
Anti-Communist agitation has spread to the Azores where sentiment for
autonomy is growing. On Tuesday, the offices of the Communist-dominated
Portuguese Democratic Movement were burned, and island residents-tired of being
branded "reactionaries" by the left-wing Lisbon press-prevented the distribution of
mainland papers.
On the mainland, the Communists and the Socialists have carried their rivalry
into the constituent assembly, which is still meeting to draw up a new constitution.
The Communists walked out of a session on Tuesday after the Socialists-who
control nearly half of the 250 seats-blamed all the mistakes of the revolution on the
"irresponsible demagoguery" of the Communists. The Communists faulted "fascist
reactionaries" for the present unrest.
Last weekend, Socialist Party leader Soares met in Stockholm with leaders of
social democratic governments and parties from 12 European countries and Israel to
ask for economic assistance to Lisbon. Soares publicly insisted that assistance must
be granted without any strings, but told the Socialist leaders privately that specific
conditions should be placed on any aid given Portugal to ensure that it is used
effectively and correctly.
The Socialist leaders made no commitment to provide aid. Prime Minister
Wilson, reaffirming the position taken by the EC Nine at their mid-July summit,
explained that the EC will be reluctant "as long as Portugal fails to give evidence of a
quick return to pluralistic democracy."
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 7, 1975
China's industrial production, after faltering badly in 1974, showed a marked
gain in the first half of this year. Incomplete data
suggest a rise of 10 to 12 percent above the first half of 1974 and about 5 to 7
percent above the second half. Gains in the major industrial areas ranged from 6.1
percent in Shanghai to 15.3 percent in Kwangtung.
Disruptions caused by political campaigns and worker discontent evidently
have now subsided in most areas of the country-a somewhat tardy response to
several central directives issued over the past year and a half demanding an end to
the disorders and a sharp increase in production.
Nevertheless, trouble spots both regionally and within individual branches of
industry cast a shadow over the outcome of China's fourth five-year plan, which
ends this year. In a~t least one eastern province-Chekiang-the authorities have called
in the army to quell lingering factional strife and labor unrest.
Peking's biggest headache, however, is a chronic shortage of coal that is
restraining growth in other vital sectors, such as steel and chemical fertilizer. The
shortage has probably been aggravated by factional strife in the coal industry. Claims
in the Chinese press that coal output increased by "a considerable margin" and
chemical fertilizer saw "a further increase" probably mean that growth was
disappointing.
No national claims were made for iron and steel; nor have any major steel mills
cited gains in output in the first half of this year. Peking has issued a directive
singling out the steel industry as a major problem area. Only the petroleum industry
has been expanding at rates Peking would consider acceptable, with crude oil
production reportedly rising by 24 percent in the first half of this year.
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hlatianial Intelligence Bulletin
AugUSt 7, 1975
President Geisel has responded to renewed criticism from military conservatives
by detining the goals of his administration in a way that de-emphasizes the
importance of _political liberalization. Last week in a lengthy speech, Geisel stressed
his concern with social progress and called attention to recent economic gains.
Asserting that economic growth will continue, Geise! outlined government
efforts to stimulate development, retard inflation, and reduce Brazil's
balance-of-payments deficit. The major portion of hiss speech dealt with social
programs, and it was not until the conclusion that he made some highly significant
comments regarding politics.
Geisel made it clear that he does not intend to promote a return to democratic
rule. On the contrary, he stated hiss intention to retain special decree powers and
alluded to the necessity for vigilance against communist infiltration and subversion.
He said "a lot has been published and said about-political relaxation...nane of which
corresponds to reality." He then referred to "relaxation" in terms of technical social
programs that provide low-cost housing, free medical care to the needy, and other
major benefits.
Just before the speech, General Golbery, Geisel's political adviser, formally
resumed his official duties after a lung illness, but the President's remarks suggest
that Golbery, the advocate of political liberalization, is unlikely to regain the
influence he previously exercised ~nrithin the government. Instead, it appears that
Geisel intends to preserve the liberal measures granted thus far, and to protect his
own authority by adopting a more conservative posture.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 7, 1975
The Milan antitank uided-missile s stem will be introduced into the Israel
Defense Forces inventory
The Milan is an advanced second-generation missile incorporating
semiautomatic guidance. It has a range of between 20 and 2,000 meters and can be
operated by one man. The missile is produced in France with some components
manufactured by West Germany and is marketed by the Euro Missile Corporation.
Milan training will reportedly be conducted at the infantry school by the
section currently providing instruction on the US-bui-t Dragon antitank weapon. US
defense attache office personnel in Tel Aviv believe that the system is intended to
fill Israel's requirement for amedium-range antitank missile during the extended
Dragon delivery schedule. The long-range need is fulfilled by the US-supplied Tow
system.
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I~lational Intellige~ECe Bu~l~tin August 7, a975
ANGOLA-CAI3lNDA: Fighting broke out yesterday along the wire-Cabinda
border between the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola and the
National Front for the Liberation of Angola. The National Front apparently
initiated the fighting but failed to make a major incursion into Cabinda, which is
dominated by the Popular Movement. The attack may have been aimed in part at
intimidating a fledgling Cabindan liberation movement. This group declared the
exclaves independence from both Portugal and Angola at the recent meeting of the
Organization of African Unity in Uganda. The Portuguese maintain only a small
garrison in Cab-nda's major town.
Equaypffol
Cauirtta
8304 8-75
*-s-~--.~--..._
Ango{a
iPart,j
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Uganda
yat~
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National Intelligence Bulletin
North Vietnam: Armed Forces Since Victory
August 7, 1975
Hanoi emerged with the second strongest military establishment in East Asia
following the rapid demise of the South Vietnamese government and the capture of
massive amounts of US equipment and munitions. This sudden military dominance
has not been lost on neighboring countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia,
and the Philippines. There is apprehension in these countries that Hanoi, now fat
with success and the spoils of war, might be tempted to increase assistance to the
active insurgencies with which these countries have to contend.
There is a lack of clear-cut evidence on just what the communist leadership is
thinking in respect to the use of its new-found military capability. One thing is
clearly emerging, however: strong forces will be maintained in the South as long as
they are needed to maintain security and assist in solving the serious economic,
administrative, and political problems presented by the sudden and unexpectedly
rapid termination of the conflict.
Occupation Army
The mission of most North Vietnamese army units in the South is that of an
occupation army. Their duties now consist of providing security, mopping up
remnants of former South Vietnamese units that are still holding out, and assisting
in restoring and maintaining general law and order. They also have administrative,
engineering, and agricultural tasks.
A high communist official recently confirmed that security remains the major
problem in the South. Although the resistance appears to have little hope of ever
becoming significant or sustained, harassment attacks have forced the communists to
ex end considerable effort to counter them.
The South Vietnamese holdouts have somewhat reversed the tables on the
communists. The latter are now required to station relatively large numbers of
troops along highways, near bridges, and at remote outposts to fend off small
attacking forces armed with light weapons.
In addition to dealing with the internal resistance, North Vietnamese forces
also have had to take up positions along the border with Cambodia. Numerous small
clashes have erupted as Khmer and Vietnamese communists dispute territory in the
ill-defined border area. The Vietnamese moved quickly to assert claims to several
offshore islands in the Gutf of Thailand earlier this summer, and they are not likely
to cede any property to their weaker communist neighbors.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
August 7, 1975
Cornrnun'rst forces in the South also have been heavily engaged in clearing the
countryside of large numbers of unexploded bombs, shells,. and mines, and removing
derelict military vehicles from farmlands. Hanoi and Saigon also have announced
that large parts of the country have been restored to agricultural production and
new farming areas are being created.
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Top Secret
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