NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A027900010046-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 11, 2006
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: July 28, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence
Bulletin
State Dept. review completed
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July 28,
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 28, 1975
CONTENTS
TURKEY: Takeover
of US bases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
PORTUGAL: Executive
triumvirate formed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
ANGOLA: Status of National
Front's advance on Luanda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
CUBA - LATIN AMERICA: Greater Cuban
participation in regional affairs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
CHI I E: Recent meeting by exiles
to prompt tougher action by junta . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
SOUTH KOREA: Pak veto
stirs oppositionists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
USSR-UN: Soviets plan to sidestep
Israeli question at UN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
SPAIN: Coalition of opposition
elements outlines political program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 28, 1975
The Turkish government is beginning to implement its decision to take control
of US bases and has asked for assurances that operational activity at the bases has
been suspended. Turkish officials still do not seem sure about the extent to which
they want to modify defense relations with the US, however, and they are leaving
themselves room for maneuver.
Operations related to the primary mission of four US-run common defense
installations ceased yesterday in response to the Turkish note of July 25. All activity
at the Incirlik installation is continuing, however, because of the difficulty in
distinguishing between NATO-related activities-which are permitted by the Turkish
note-and others that are prohibited. Other US installations and facilities are
continuing to operate normally.
Turkish commanders are set to take over control of the four designated
installations tomorrow. The director general for international security affairs told
Ambassador Macomber yesterday that instructions to Turkish commanders are for
them to treat US military personnel as "members of a friendly and allied force."
A complete set of the instructions to the commanders has been forwarded to
US military personnel and is being translated. US officials in Turkey are particularly
concerned that the Turks will insist on having access to highly sensitive areas within
the installations.
According to a Turkish radiobroadcast, the Turkish government has called for
an extraordinary meeting of the NATO Council to explain its actions against the US
bases.
Operations at the bases continued through Saturday, when it appeared that the
government-having made a major publicity impact by its announcement of the
suspension and takeover-would refrain from zealously implementing its decision.
An inquiry by the acting chief of the General Staff about the status of operational
activity on Saturday, however, led to the suspension of operations yesterday, lest
the Turks get further upset and become less flexible in the forthcoming negotiations.
Turkish officials have thus far been vague about other steps they will take. For
example, the director general for international security affairs told the ambassador
yesterday that the extent of the shutdown did not "exceed" Turkish requirements,
but he did not elaborate. Nor did he comment when the ambassador informed him
that the cessation of operational activity had been delayed by a day, and that all
activities were continuing at Incirlik.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 28, 1975
Prime Minister Demirel appears to have left the details of altering Turkey's
defense relationship with the US in the hands of the Turkish General Staff. The
General Staff has usually argued for moderation in reacting to the embargo, but
pique may cause them to take actions that may be difficult to reverse when passions
cool.
According to a preliminary embassy assessment, the ability of the US forces to
carry out their mission will depend as much on the zeal with which the new
restrictions are interpreted and carried out as on the restrictions themselves.
Reaction by the political opposition and press has been one of outrage at the
decision of the US House of Representatives to continue the embargo. The
opposition has given grudging approval to the moves of the Demirel government
against the bases. Principal opposition leader Ecevit called for even stronger
measures and for a general review of Turkish foreign policy.
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 28, 1975
The formation of an executive triumvirate in Portugal is probably intended to
bridge the three opposing currents in the ruling military, but it is more likely to
increase the differences among them. The triumvirate is unlikely to repair the deep
divisions in the country as a whole or to solve Portugal's critical domestic problems.
Differences between security chief Otelo de Carvalho and Prime Minister
Goncalves-who appeared to emerge from the Armed Forces General Assembly
deliberations on Friday in the strongest positions-appear to be unbridgeable. This is
probably also the case for Otelo and the third member of the triumvirate, President
Costa Gomes, who appealed in the assembly meeting for a slowdown in the
revolution because it was out of touch with the people.
Reaction to the triumvirate from the Communists has been lukewarm at best,
suggesting that they may be apprehensive about the elevation of Otelo-whom they
have good reason to fear-to such a position of authority.
It must also be evident to the Communists not only that their future is linked
with that of Goncalves, but also that the moderates-both in the military and in the
democratic parties-are not ready to capitulate.
It is unclear what the next move by moderate military officers will be. Seeing
that their effort to unseat Goncalves would fail in the radical-dominated assembly
meeting, key moderate officers refused to attend, in spite of entreaties by Costa
Gomes and others. Instead, they held their own meeting at the Foreign Ministry.
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Both the Socialists and the moderate leftist Popular Democratic Party have
expressed opposition to the new triumvirate. The Socialists have sought to identify
closely with the moderate, pro-Western remarks made by Costa Gomes during the
assembly. Both the Socialists and the Popular Democrats have denounced the new
governing body as illegal.
Socialist Party leader Soares yesterday called on President Costa Gomes to
break away from the triumvirate and form a government. Charging that the junta is
illegal, Soares said only the President could unify and save the nation from a radical
leftist dictatorship. Soares spoke at a party rally in a northern port city.
The rally was peaceful, but a Socialist protest rally on Saturday night in
Evora-some 75 miles east of Lisbon-was attacked by the Communists, resulting in
dozens of injuries. Portuguese troops were required to intervene as some 6,000
Socialists and Communists battled with clubs and rocks.
Catholics in the far northern town of Braganca defied the military yesterday by
holding a rally protesting the seizure of the church radio.
The Popular Democrats were said to be planning a rally on the island of
Madeira, which, according to one unconfirmed press account, is rumored to be
considering a declaration of independence.
July 28, 1975
Whether the triumvirate can succeed in temporarily bridging its differences may
become clearer when-and if-a new cabinet is announced today or tomorrow. Any
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respite seems likely to be brief, given the continuing turmoil in the country, the
economic problems which are expected to come to a head in the next few weeks,
and problems in the Azores and Angola.
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National Intelligence Bulletin July 28, 1975
The National Front for the Liberation of Angola does not appear to have
advanced much beyond the town of Caxito, which it captured late last week, despite
rumors in Luanda that Front forces will soon enter the city.
The Front's ability to move on Luanda may in part be determined by logistic
support from Zaire and the results of fighting under way elsewhere in Angola with
forces of the rival Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola.
A high-ranking Front official said over the weekend that the Front would not
enter Luanda in force but would try to provide relief to its remnants that are
besieged in several locations on the outskirts of the city. He said the Front intended
to seal off Luanda and would then try to negotiate the removal of rival forces from
the city.
The Portuguese are now a key factor. The Portuguese high commissioner told
the US consul general on Saturday that a policy of strict neutrality would be upheld,
implying that the Front's efforts would not be opposed. He said, however, that he
doubted that the Front has the strength to enter Luanda. The Portuguese have
switched signals since last week, when the Portuguese commander had ordered his
troops to establish a perimeter around the city to protect it against an offensive by
the Front.
In anticipation of renewed fighting in Luanda, the British have closed their
consulate and evacuated their officials and a number of American and European
residents.
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CUBA - LATIN AMERICA
Two events tomorrow will underline a changed relationship between Cuba and
the rest of Latin America.
The OAS seems certain to move to unburden inter-American affairs of the
divisive Cuba sanctions issue. The resolution being offered to the OAS foreign
ministers convening in San Jose, Costa Rica, will grant freedom of action to Rio
Treaty signatories regarding their conduct of relations with Cuba.
This action by the OAS would ignore the substance of the charges levied
against Havana in 1964 and merely relieve members of the treaty obligations
concerning the Castro regime. Relations with Cuba would then become a bilateral
matter rather than one dictated by the OAS. Although the resolution does not
address the character of the Cuban government, the effect for all practical purposes
will be to end Latin America's ostracism of Castro.
The other event will take Castro's government beyond the somewhat neutral
status to be granted by the OAS. About 15 governments, including Cuba, will send
representatives to Panama to create a purely Latin American economic association
that in some ways will parallel the OAS. Cuba will become one of the founding
members.
Despite its obviously improved situation in the region, Cuba remains a long way
from respectability in Central and South America. Strongly anti-communist
governments-particularly Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay-will continue to regard
Castro as a pariah. Other governments, though less hostile, are cool toward Havana
and will critically examine Cuba's conduct within Latin organizations such as the
new economic group.
One of the economic association's functions. will be to serve as a forum where
the Latin and Caribbean governments can work out their differences so that unified
positions can be presented to the US in the OAS. The association will extend
membership to governments now excluded from the OAS, such as Guyana.
Georgetown has been denied OAS membership because of its territorial dispute with
Venezuela. The same impediment will apply to British Honduras, when it becomes
independent, because of its problems with Guatemala. The new organization,
unimpeded by such considerations, could become a more practical vehicle for
multilateral relations a M7 the Latin and Caribbean governments.
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 28, 1975
Left-wing Christian Democratic Party exiles recently met in Venezuela with
moderate leaders of former president Allende's coalition and called for the creation
of a broad front to oppose the military government in Chile. The meeting is sure to
intensify Santiago's distrust of civilian politicians.
The Christian Democrats-Bernardo Leighton, Renan Fuentealba, and Gabriel
Valdes-were acting on their own, and their participation reportedly embarrassed
their party's leadership in Santiago. The party, like other political groups, is "in
recess" and on poor terms with the government. Leighton and Fuentealba were
expelled from the country for their outspoken criticism of the regime.
The Christian Democratic Party's legal existence has been in question ever since
former president Frei publicly criticized the junta's economic policies last month.
Frei's statements evoked a strong reaction from the junta and raised rumors that the
government would exile him.
President Pinochet's right-wing advisers purportedly have urged him to outlaw
the remaining parties. One of the right-wingers, Alvaro Puga, suggested last Monday
that Leighton and Fuentealba are traitors and should be deprived of their
citizenship. The junta can be expected to seize whatever slim evidence it can to
substantiate charges of an antigovernment conspiracy and justify tougher action
against its critics.
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President Pak's opponents have reacted sharply to his veto of an
opposition-sponsored bill that would have required government officials to testify
before the National Assembly.
The bill passed with bipartisan support early this month, but the government
has had second thoughts, saying that the measure could compromise national
security information. Opposition assemblymen are eager to regain the power to
question government officials-a prerogative taken away from the assembly by the
authoritarian 1972 constitution.
A spokesman for the opposition New Democratic Party charged over the
weekend that Pak's veto changes the government-opposition relationship from one
of growing dialogue back to confrontation. In order to deal with the situation, New
Democratic Party leader Kim Yong-sam abruptly canceled a planned trip to
Southeast Asia.
Prime Minister Kim Chong-pil is attempting to smooth things over, proposing
compromise language for the bill. The government will probably be able to prevent a
major resumption of open political dissent. Pak's opponents have generally muted
their criticism since the communist victories in Indochina in the spring.
o the veto points up again that political restiveness is not far
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National Intelligence Bulletin
July 28, 1975
Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko told Ambassador Stoessel in Moscow on
Friday that the USSR will attempt to avoid taking a position on the question of
Israeli expulsion from the UN and is strongly opposed to any reform of the UN
Charter.
Gromyko said Moscow had had no firm advance warning of Arab intentions to
press for Israel's expulsion. He argued that any General Assembly decision to
exclude Israel-either by expulsion or by suspension-would be contrary to the UN
Charter.
The foreign minister said the Israeli matter shows how careful the US and
USSR must be in dealing with proposed revisions of the charter. He said it is
necessary to preserve the UN Charter as it stands, and asserted that sympathetic US
responses to revisions proposed in the past had been a "mistake." H e also reiterated
Moscow's view that Israel should seek its security in the territorial guarantees of the
"strongest powers," among whom he clearly included the USSR.
Gromyko said he will not be attending the special session of the General
Assembly but ill robabl be present for the regular session, which begins on
September 16. w
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The new center-left political group formed last month has followed up its
denunciation of the Franco regime by outlining a political program.
Agreement on the program was reportedly difficult to reach because of the
diverse ideological views of the 16 parties and the many labor organizations in the
coalition, which calls itself the Platform of Democratic Convergence. Its members
range from moderate Christian Democrats to radical communists who think the
Spanish Communist Party too temperate.
The US embassy in Madrid believes the group's very diversity will make it
difficult to hold together. If it can, the Democratic Convergence may become a
major political force in the post-Franco period, when it could serve as a
counterweight to the Communist-dominated Democratic Junta formed in Paris last
year.
The program details the group's goals. Rejecting the Franco regime and the
imposed monarchical successor state on grounds that "dictatorship is not reformable
and liberty is not negotiable," the group calls for a referendum to decide the form of
the future government. The group strongly supports establishment of a federal state
and the right of self-determination for all nationalities-a goal anathema to the
armed forces.
The group promises to respect Spain's international commitments, but it
specifically excludes those limiting "national independence," a veiled reference to
the US-Spanish friendship agreement under which the US maintains bases in Spain.
This reference implies that any base agreements concluded by the present regime
would be reviewed in the post-Franco period.
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